A comparative fuzzy logic approach to runoff coefficient and runoff estimation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Zekai en  Abdüsselam Altunkaynak 《水文研究》2006,20(9):1993-2009

In practice, rainfall–runoff relationships are achieved through a simply defined runoff coefficient concept that is widely used in many engineering hydrological designs in urban and rural areas. The simplicity of the method, with the sole requirement of runoff coefficient assessment, is the main attractiveness, in addition to its successful prediction of average runoff rates for a given rainfall record. Unfortunately, in the classical regression approach of the rainfall–runoff relationship, internal variabilities are not taken into consideration explicitly. The runoff coefficient is considered a constant value, and it is used without distinction of antecedent conditions for the calculation of runoff from the rainfall record. In this paper, various other uncertainty embedded versions of the runoff coefficient, and hence rainfall–runoff formulation, are presented in terms of statistics, probability, perturbation and, finally, fuzzy system modelling. It is concluded that the fuzzy logic approach yields the least relative error among the various alternative runoff calculation methods; therefore, it is recommended for use in future studies. The application of various alternatives is presented for two monthly rainfall‐runoff records around Istanbul, Turkey. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The greatest soda-water lake in the world and how it is influenced by climatic change     

M. Kadioğlu  Z. Şen  E. Batur 《Annales Geophysicae》1997,15(11):1489-1497

Global wanning resulting from increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the local climate changes that follow affect local hydrospheric and biospheric environments. These include lakes that serve surrounding populations as a fresh water resource or provide regional navigation. Although there may well be steady water-quality alterations in the lakes with time, many of these are very much climate-change dependent. During cool and wet periods, there may be water-level rises that may cause economic losses to agriculture and human activities along the lake shores. Such rises become nuisances especially in the case of shoreline settlements and low-lying agricultural land. Lake Van, in eastern Turkey currently faces such problems due to water-level rises. The lake is unique for at least two reasons. First, it is a closed basin with no natural or artificial outlet and second, its waters contain high concentrations of soda which prevent the use of its water as a drinking or agricultural water source. Consequently, the water level fluctuations are entirely dependent on the natural variability of the hydrological cycle and any climatic change affects the drainage basin. In the past, the lake-level fluctuations appear to have been rather systematic and unrepresentable by mathematical equations. Herein, monthly polygonal climate diagrams are constructed to show the relation between lake level and some meteorological variables, as indications of significant and possible climatic changes. This procedure is applied to Lake Van, eastern Turkey, and relevant interpretations are presented.  相似文献   

Letters to the editor     

Zekai Şen  F. Delay  G. de Marsily 《Mathematical Geosciences》1996,28(3):371-376

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A meta-modeling approach for spatio-temporal uncertainty and sensitivity analysis: an application for a cellular automata-based Urban growth and land-use change model     

Seda Şalap-Ayça  Piotr Jankowski  Keith C Clarke  Phaedon C Kyriakidis  Atsushi Nara 《International journal of geographical information science》2018,32(4):637-662

The paper presents a computationally efficient meta-modeling approach to spatially explicit uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in a cellular automata (CA) urban growth and land-use simulation model. The uncertainty and sensitivity of the model parameters are approximated using a meta-modeling method called polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). The parameter uncertainty and sensitivity measures obtained with PCE are compared with traditional Monte Carlo simulation results. The meta-modeling approach was found to reduce the number of model simulations necessary to arrive at stable sensitivity estimates. The quality of the results is comparable to the full-order modeling approach, which is computationally costly. The study shows that the meta-modeling approach can significantly reduce the computational effort of carrying out spatially explicit uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the application of spatio-temporal models.  相似文献   

Power-law Relationship in Describing Temporal and Spatial Precipitation Pattern in Turkey     

M. Kadiğlu  Z. Şen 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1998,59(1-2):93-106

Summary Wet and dry spell properties of monthly rainfall series at five meteorology stations in Turkey are examined by plotting successive wet and dry month duration versus their number of occurrences on the double-logarithmic paper. Straight line relationships on such graphs show that power-laws govern the pattern of successive persistent wet and dry monthly spells. Functional power law relationships between the number of dry and wet spells for a given monthly period are derived from the available monthly precipitation data. The probability statements for wet and dry period spells are obtained from the power law expressions. Comparison of power-law behaviours at five distinct sites in Turkey provides useful interpretation about the temporal and spatial rainfall pattern. As in temperate areas such as Turkey the rainfall amounts change mostly due to one-month-long dry or wet spells. Received August 29, 1995 Revised November 9, 1995  相似文献   

Theoretical Risk Formulation for Degree-day Calculations     

Z. Şen  M. Kadıoğlu 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1998,61(1-2):121-126

Summary Energy consumption, agricultural activities and comfort in building design are all related to temporal temperature variations. Truncation of the temperature series at a constant base temperature level leads to surpluses and deficits as deviations. Surpluses are instances for cooling and deficits for heating. In meteorology and heat engineering these are referred to as cooling and heating degree-days, respectively. Since the temperature records are random in character their future predictions are necessary through statistical and probabilistic methods. In this paper, the degree-days are assumed to have a normal probability distribution function and therefore, their averages and standard deviations are considered sufficient for modeling cooling and heating degree-day amounts. Theoretical derivations are presented for degree-day risk calculations in their general forms and a simple implementation is given for two cities in Turkey. Received January 23, 1998 Revised June 16, 1998  相似文献   

Temporal significant wave height estimation from wind speed by perceptron Kalman filtering     

Abdüsselam Altunkaynak  Mehmet zger 《Ocean Engineering》2004,31(10):327-1255

Significant wave height estimates are necessary for many applications in coastal and offshore engineering and therefore various estimation models are proposed in the literature for this purpose. Unfortunately, most of these models provide simultaneous wave height estimations from wind speed measurements. However, in practical studies, the prediction of significant wave height is necessary from previous time interval measurements. This paper presents a dynamic significant wave height prediction procedure based on the perceptron Kalman filtering concepts. Past measurements of significant wave height and wind speed variables are used for training the adaptive model and it is then employed to predict the significant wave height amounts for future time intervals from the wind speed measurements only. The verification of the proposed model is achieved through the dynamic significant wave height and wind speed time series plots, observed versus predicted values scatter diagram and the classical linear significant wave height models. The application of the proposed model is presented for a station in USA.  相似文献   

Die Alpiden und die Kimmeriden: die verdoppelte Geschichte der Tethys: Reply     

Dr. A. M. C. Şengör 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1986,75(2):501-510

Ohne Zusammenfassung  相似文献   

Sedimentation pattern in Central Anatolia at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary     

T.N. Norman  S.L. Gökçen  M. Şenalp 《Cretaceous Research》1980,1(1):61-84

In the Central Anatolia region of Turkey, a mixture of sedimentary and tectonic melanges cover extensive areas, bordering the north, north-west and west of the Kir?ehir Massif. Broadly the age of this melange is Mesozoic; however it includes olistoliths whose ages range from Carboniferous to Cretaceous. A series of interconnected basins existed within the “melange belt” during Late Cretaceous-Early Tertiary times. They have been infilled, throughout the Lower Tertiary, by slump and mass-flow deposits, produced by active tectonic events. These events seem to be a natural continuation of the earlier stronger tectonics which produced the melanges.  相似文献   

Laudatio auf Viktor Efimowitsch Chain     

Lev P. Zonenshain  A. M. Celal Şengör 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1992,81(2):263-265

Ohne Zusammenfassung  相似文献