Integrating Uncertainty Theories with GIS for Modeling Coastal Hazards of Climate Change     

Peter J. Cowell  Thomas Q. Zeng 《Marine Geodesy》2003,26(1):5-18

Prediction of coastal hazards due to climate change is fraught with uncertainty that stems from complexity of coastal systems, estimation of sea level rise, and limitation of available data. In-depth research on coastal modeling is hampered by lack of techniques for handling uncertainty, and the available commercial geographical information systems (GIS) packages have only limited capability of handling uncertain information. Therefore, integrating uncertainty theory with GIS is of practical and theoretical significance. This article presents a GIS-based model that integrates an existing predictive model using a differential approach, random simulation, and fuzzy set theory for predicting geomorphic hazards subject to uncertainty. Coastal hazard is modeled as the combined effects of sea-level induced recession and storm erosion, using grid modeling techniques. The method is described with a case study of Fingal Bay Beach, SE Australia, for which predicted responses to an IPCC standard sea-level rise of 0.86 m and superimposed storm erosion averaged 12 m and 90 m, respectively, with analysis of uncertainty yielding maximum of 52 m and 120 m, respectively. Paradoxically, output uncertainty reduces slightly with simulated increase in random error in the digital elevation model (DEM). This trend implies that the magnitude of modeled uncertainty is not necessarily increased with the uncertainties in the input parameters. Built as a generic tool, the model can be used not only to predict different scenarios of coastal hazard under uncertainties for coastal management, but is also applicable to other fields that involve predictive modeling under uncertainty.  相似文献   

Developing a Marine Information System by Integrating Existing Ocean Models Using Object-Oriented Technology     

A. Jacob  T. Hamre  G. Evensen  K. A. Mughal 《Marine Geodesy》2003,26(1):87-106

Information systems developed for different applications within the environmental domain have common characteristics, which can potentially be abstracted for sharing and reuse of design and software modules. This article presents an approach to designing for reuse by abstracting commonalities in the design of a Marine Information System (MIS), facilitating data management in a prototype operational monitoring, forecasting, and management system for the North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas. A detailed study of the requirements and data analysis was carried out, and Object-Oriented Technology (OOT) is employed to encapsulate abstractions and to promote reuse of code and design. This article identifies the Object-Oriented Frameworks (OOFW) required to build the MIS. It also provides guidelines to environmental scientists for restructuring legacy software and employing modern programming techniques.  相似文献   

Extraction and comparison of acoustic backscatter from a calibrated multi- and single-beam sonar     

Melvin  Gary D; Cochrane  Norman A; Li  Yanchao 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2003,60(3):669-677

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Spatial patterns and environmental risks of ringnet fishing along the Kenyan coast     

P Thoya  S Pérez-Jorge  GM Okemwa  H Mwamlavya  A Tuda  N Wambiji 《African Journal of Marine Science》2020,42(1):23-33

Ringnet fishing began in the early 20th century and is practised worldwide, mainly to target nearshore pelagic species. The method was introduced to Kenya’s coastal waters by migrant fishers from Tanzania. However, the impacts of this fishing gear remain poorly assessed. We assessed the spatial distribution of ringnet fishing effort and its possible effects on ecosystem components, such as coral reefs, marine megafauna and marine protected areas, on the south coast of Kenya. We tracked 89 ringnet fishing trips made from December 2015 to January 2016 and used spatial multicriteria analysis to determine hotspots of possible environmental risks. The results showed that habitat type and bathymetric profile influenced the spatial distribution of ringnet fishing effort. Mixed seagrass and coral habitats had the highest concentration of the effort. Most of the habitats in the study area were moderately exposed to the impacts of the ringnet fishery. The study identifies high-risk areas that require spatial measures to minimise possible environmental risks of the gear both to habitats and to endangered sea turtles.  相似文献   

Letter to the editor     

Peter G. Wells 《Marine environmental research》1980,3(4):315-318

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Steady-state analysis of undersea cables     

A. P. K. De Zoysa 《Ocean Engineering》1978,5(3):209-223

A numerical solution and computer program developed to analyse undersea flexible cable problems is presented. The cable is subject to hydrodynamic loads from a surrounding fluid medium. The object is to determine the cable profile and tensile forces developed. The cable equations and boundary conditions result in a classical two-point boundary value problem. An iteration ‘shooting method’ is used for solution. The program has been written to analyse a class of towing and anchoring problems. However the analysis is general and applicable to most steady-state cable problems.  相似文献   

Partitioning of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons between water and particles compared to bioaccumulation in mussels: a harbour case   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Hellou J  Steller S  Leonard J  Langille MA  Tremblay D 《Marine environmental research》2005,59(2):101-117

Water and particles from three sites located in Halifax Harbour, near and further away from combined municipal sewage effluents (CMSE) were analysed for parental and alkylated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (par and alkPAH). Bioavailability of PAH was compared for inter-tidal mussels collected at the same sites in April and November. The PAH fingerprint determined over 9 sampling times covering a period of 19 months differed more between phases (water and particles) and seasons, than between sites. In the spring, more alkPAH associated with diesel and gasoline were detected in the soluble phase, along with more bioaccumulation of alkPAH in inter-tidal mussels. A broader number of parPAH were detected in mussels collected in the fall. The mean sum of dissolved alkPAH concentrations was higher in water at the site closer to raw CMSE than at the other two sites and particles of that site. However, lowest bioconcentration factors (BCF) were determined in mussels of this more contaminated site. Similar biota-particle accumulation factors (BPAF) were determined for parPAH in mussels from the three sites, all lower than the BCF of alkPAH. The study indicates that sewage treatment plants will reduce the amount of parPAH especially larger than fluoranthene and pyrene from being deposited in the harbour; that alk naphthalenes and fluorenes present in water will continue to be discharged; that the disturbance of sediments can make particle-bound PAH available to mussels.  相似文献   

An improved multiple-frequency method for measuring in situ target strengths     

Conti  Stephane G.; Demer  David A.; Soule  Michael A.; Conti  Jean H.E. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2005,62(8):1636-1646

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Fluxes and sources of suspended organic matter in an estuarine turbidity maximum region during low discharge conditions   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：6  

Miguel A. Goni  Mary W. Cathey  Yong H. Kim  George Voulgaris 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2005,63(4):683-700

Water column concentrations of total suspended solids (TSS), particulate organic carbon (POC) and particulate nitrogen (PN) were measured at three different depths in four different locations bracketing the estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) along the main channel of a temperate riverine estuary (Winyah Bay, South Carolina, USA). Measurements were carried out over full tidal cycle (over 24 h). Salinity, temperature, current magnitude and direction were also monitored at the same time throughout the water column. Tidally averaged net fluxes of salt, TSS, POC and PN were calculated by combining the current measurements with the concentration data. Under the extreme low river discharge conditions that characterized the study period, net landward fluxes of salt were measured in the lower part of the study area, suggesting that the landward transport through the main channel of the estuary was probably balanced by export out through the sides. In contrast, the net fluxes of salt in the upper reaches of the study area were near zero, indicating a closed salt balance in this part of the estuary. In contrast to salt, the net fluxes of TSS, POC and PN in the deeper parts of the water column were consistently landward at all four sites in Winyah Bay indicating the non-conservative behavior of particulate components and their active transport up the estuary in the region around the ETM.The carbon contents (%POC), carbon:nitrogen ratios (org[C:N]a) and stable carbon isotopic compositions (δ¹³C_POC) of the suspended particles varied significantly with depth, location and tidal stage. Tidally averaged compositions showed a significant increase up the estuary in the %POC and org[C:N]a values of suspended particles consistent with the preferential landward transport of carbon-rich particles with higher vascular plant debris content. The combination of tidal resuspension and flood-dominated flow appeared to be responsible for the hydrodynamic sorting of particles along the estuary that resulted in denser, organic-poor particles being transported landward less efficiently. The elemental and isotopic compositions indicated that vascular C₃ plants and estuarine algae were the major sources of the particulate organic matter of all the samples, without any significant contributions from salt marsh C₄ vegetation (Spartina alterniflora) and/or marine phytoplankton.  相似文献   

Management of a shallow temperate estuary to control eutrophication: The effect of hydrodynamics on the system’s nutrient loading   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

A.I. Lilleb  J.M. Neto  I. Martins  T. Verdelhos  S. Leston  P.G. Cardoso  S.M. Ferreira  J.C. Marques  M.A. Pardal 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2005,65(4):697-707

The Mondego estuary, a shallow warm-temperate intertidal system located on the west coast of Portugal, has for some decades been under severe ecological stress, mainly caused by eutrophication. Water circulation in this system was, until 1998, mainly dependent on tides and on the freshwater input of a small tributary artificially controlled by a sluice. After 1998, the sluice opening was effectively minimised to reduce the nutrient loading, and the system hydrodynamics improved due to engineering work in the upstream areas. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the effect of the mitigation measures implemented in 1998. Changes to the hydrodynamics of the system were assessed using precipitation and salinity data in relation to the concentrations of dissolved inorganic nutrients, as well as the linkage between dissolved N:P ratios and the biological parameters (phytoplankton chlorophyll a concentrations, green macroalgal biomass and seagrass biomass). Two distinctive periods were compared, over a ten year period: from January 1993 to January 1997 and from January 1999 until January 2003. The effective reduction in the dissolved N:P atomic ratio from 37.7 to 13.2 after 1998 is a result of lowered ammonia, but not the oxidised forms of nitrogen (nitrate plus nitrite), or increased concentrations of dissolved inorganic phosphorus. Results suggest that the phytoplankton is not nutrient limited, yet maximum and mean biomass of green macroalgae was reduced by one order of magnitude after the mitigation measures. This suggests that besides lowering the water residence time of the system, macroalgal growth became nitrogen limited. In parallel to these changes the seagrass-covered area and biomass of Zostera noltii showed signs of recovery.  相似文献