On the use of synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical events for storm surge assessment under climate change     

Ruiz-Salcines  Pablo  Appendini  Christian M.  Salles  Paulo  Rey  Wilmer  Vigh  Jonathan L. 《Natural Hazards》2021,105(1):431-459

Natural Hazards - This study presents a new approach to assess storm surge risk from tropical cyclones under climate change by direct calculation of the local flood levels using a limited number of...  相似文献   

The 2020 glacial lake outburst flood process chain at Lake Salkantaycocha (Cordillera Vilcabamba,Peru)     

Vilca  Oscar  Mergili  Martin  Emmer  Adam  Frey  Holger  Huggel  Christian 《Landslides》2021,18(6):2211-2223

Glacial lakes represent a threat for the populations of the Andes and numerous disastrous glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred as a result of sudden dam failures or dam overtoppings triggered by landslides such as rock/ice avalanches into the lake. This paper investigates a landslide-triggered GLOF process chain that occurred on February 23, 2020, in the Cordillera Vilcabamba in the Peruvian Andes. An initial slide at the SW slope of Nevado Salkantay evolved into a rock/ice avalanche. The frontal part of this avalanche impacted the moraine-dammed Lake Salkantaycocha, triggering a displacement wave which overtopped and surficially eroded the dam. Dam overtopping resulted in a far-reaching GLOF causing fatalities and people missing in the valley downstream. We analyze the situations before and after the event as well as the dynamics of the upper portion of the GLOF process chain, based on field investigations, remotely sensed data, meteorological data and a computer simulation with a two-phase flow model. Comparison of pre- and post-event field photographs helped us to estimate the initial landslide volume of 1–2 million m³. Meteorological data suggest rainfall and/or melting/thawing processes as possible causes of the landslide. The simulation reveals that the landslide into the lake created a displacement wave of 27 m height. The GLOF peak discharge at the dam reached almost 10,000 m³/s. However, due to the high freeboard, less than 10% of the lake volume drained, and the lake level increased by 10–15 m, since the volume of landslide material deposited in the lake (roughly 1.3 million m³) was much larger than the volume of released water (57,000 m³, according to the simulation). The model results show a good fit with the observations, including the travel time to the uppermost village. The findings of this study serve as a contribution to the understanding of landslide-triggered GLOFs in changing high-mountain regions.

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Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate?     

Gorka Merino  Manuel Barange  Julia L. Blanchard  James Harle  Robert Holmes  Icarus Allen  Edward H. Allison  Marie Caroline Badjeck  Nicholas K. Dulvy  Jason Holt  Simon Jennings  Christian Mullon  Lynda D. Rodwell 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(4):795-806

Expansion in the world's human population and economic development will increase future demand for fish products. As global fisheries yield is constrained by ecosystems productivity and management effectiveness, per capita fish consumption can only be maintained or increased if aquaculture makes an increasing contribution to the volume and stability of global fish supplies. Here, we use predictions of changes in global and regional climate (according to IPCC emissions scenario A1B), marine ecosystem and fisheries production estimates from high resolution regional models, human population size estimates from United Nations prospects, fishmeal and oil price estimations, and projections of the technological development in aquaculture feed technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050. We conclude that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish. Ineffective fisheries management and rising fishmeal prices driven by greater demand could, however, compromise future aquaculture production and the availability of fish products.  相似文献   

Spatial patterns of groundwater‐lake exchange – implications for acid neutralization processes in an acid mine lake     

Christiane Neumann  Julia Beer  Christian Blodau  Stefan Peiffer  Jan H. Fleckenstein 《水文研究》2013,27(22):3240-3253

Exchange of groundwater and lake water with typically quite different chemical composition is an important driver for biogeochemical processes at the groundwater‐lake interface, which can affect the water quality of lakes. This is of particular relevance in mine lakes where anoxic and slightly acidic groundwater mixes with oxic and acidic lake water (pH < 3). To identify links between groundwater‐lake exchange rates and acid neutralization processes in the sediments, exchange rates were quantified and related to pore‐water pH, sulfate and iron concentrations as well as sulfate reduction rates within the sediment. Seepage rates measured with seepage meters (?2.5 to 5.8 L m^‐2 d^‐1) were in reasonable agreement with rates inverted from modeled chloride profiles (?1.8 to 8.1 L m^‐2 d^‐1). Large‐scale exchange patterns were defined by the (hydro)geologic setting but superimposed by smaller scale variations caused by variability in sediment texture. Sites characterized by groundwater upwelling (flow into the lake) and sites where flow alternated between upwelling and downwelling were identified. Observed chloride profiles at the alternating sites reflected the transient flow regime. Seepage direction, as well as seepage rate, were found to influence pH, sulfate and iron profiles and the associated sulfate reduction rates. Under alternating conditions proton‐consuming processes, for example, sulfate reduction, were slowed. In the uppermost layer of the sediment (max. 5 cm), sulfate reduction rates were significantly higher at upwelling (>330 nmol g^‐1 d^‐1) compared to alternating sites (<220 nmol g^‐1 d^‐1). Although differences in sulfate reduction rates could not be explained solely by different flux rates, they were clearly related to the prevailing groundwater‐lake exchange patterns and the associated pH conditions. Our findings strongly suggest that groundwater‐lake exchange has significant effects on the biogeochemical processes that are coupled to sulfate reduction such as acidity retention and precipitation of iron sulfides. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Hydraulic roughness over simple subaqueous dunes   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Jesper Bartholdy  Burg W. Flemming  Verner B. Ernstsen  Christian Winter  Alex Bartholom ä 《Geo-Marine Letters》2010,30(1):63-76

Detailed studies of flow over subaqueous dunes in laboratory flumes were used to suggest a virtual near-bed layer of twice the dune height in which the mean velocity is accelerated towards the crest by contraction. The mean flow velocity in this layer above the crest, transformed into friction velocity by means of the surface skin roughness, is shown to give values consistent with measured values. The resulting dimensionless shear stress due to skin friction is depth-independent, in contrast to that derived by means of often cited traditional methods. As a result of the relationship between dune height and the thickness of the near-bed layer, an expression for the expansion loss behind dunes was formulated and used to relate form resistance directly to dune height.  相似文献   

Topographic gravitational potential up to second-order derivatives: an examination of approximation errors caused by rock-equivalent topography (RET)   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

Michael Kuhn  Christian Hirt 《Journal of Geodesy》2016,90(9):883-902

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Settling-velocity distributions and sorting processes on a longitudinal dune: A case study     

Daniel Hartmann  Christian Christiansen 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1988,13(7):649-656

The processes acting on a longitudinal dune are inferred from the response in the area size-sorting characteristics of the sediment of the active layer. The sediment size distributions are determined by settling and are best described by a log-hyperbolic model which provides the most information on size-sorting processes. Size-sorting characteristics are markedly different across the low round-crested part of the dune from cross-sections of the high more sharp-crested part. This results in changes in textural parameters along the lee-side consistent with changes in the lee-side separation vortex. This is the first time that the effect of wind speed up on the lee-side is observed to be reflected in the sediment; it can only be detected with the very sensitive log-hyperbolic parameters.  相似文献   

Explorations into the formal structure of drainage basins     

Christian Werner 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1994,19(8):747-762

Every basin of higher than first order is drained by a channel network composed of two subnetworks. Their basins are separated by a drainage divide line, called the basin divider, which is the primary organizing feature of the main basin. Each basin of magnitude n contains n – 1 subnetworks of higher order, and is therefore organized by a set of n – 1 dividers. The dividers and the basin boundary are interconnected in a graph called the divider network of the basin; in graph-theoretic terms this network forms a tree and has the same magnitude and link numbers as the channel network draining the basin. While the subbasins and subnetworks of a drainage basin form a nesting hierarchy, the corresponding dividers do not; indeed, any two dividers share at most one node in common, and whether they do so is independent of whether the corresponding subbasins are nesting or disjoint. However, the dividers of nesting basins are linked by recursive relationships which permit the derivation of a set of algebraic equations; these equations relate the dividers of a basin to other basin components; for example, their combined length is equal to half the length of all first-order basin boundaries minus the length of the main basin boundary. The second part of the paper explores the dependence of the divider length on other basin parameters. The expected length, as predicted by the assumption of topological randomness, is clearly rejected by the data. An alternative approach (regression) is based on the observed magnitudes of the subbasins separated by each divider, and is reasonably successful in estimating divider length. The last section introduces the concept of the standardized basin defined by a boundary length of unity; the estimated lengths of the basin divider and the basin boundary permit an approximate reconstruction of the idealized basin shape and the location of the divider in it.  相似文献   

Tidal river sediments in the Washington,D.C. area. III. Biological effects associated with sediment contamination     

Christian E. Schlekat  Beth L. McGee  Eli Reinharz  David J. Velinsky  Terry L. Wade 《Estuaries and Coasts》1994,17(2):334-344

Sediment toxicity and benthic macroinvertebrate community structure were measured as one component of a study cohceived to determine the distribution and effect of sediment contamination in tidal freshwater portions of the Potomac and Anacostia rivers in the Washington, D.C., area. Samples were collected at 15 sites. Analyses included a partial life cycle (28 d) whole sediment test using the amphipod Hyalella azteca (Talitridae) and an assessment of benthic community structure. Survival and growth (as estimated by amphipod length) were experimental endopoints for the toxicity test. Significant mortality was observed in 5 of 10 sites in the lower Anacostia River basin and at the main channel Potomac River site. Sublethal toxicity, as measured by inhibition of amphipod growth, was not observed. Toxicity test results were in general agreement with synoptically measured sediment contaminant concentrations. Porewater total ammonia (NH₃+NH₄ ⁺) appears to be responsible for the toxicity of sediments from the Potomac River, while correlation analysis and simultaneously extracted metals: acid volatile sulfide (SEM∶AVS) results suggest that the toxicity associated with Anacostia River sediments was due to organic compounds. Twenty-eight macroinvertebrate taxa were identified among all sites, with richness varying from 5 to 17 taxa per site. Groups of benthic assemblages identified by group-average cluster analysis exhibited variable agreement with sediment chemical and sediment toxicity results. Integration of toxicological, chemical, and ecological components suggests that adverse environmental effects manifest in the lower Anacostia River benthos result from chemical contamination of sediment.  相似文献   

Influence of bottom topography roughness on the jet and inertial recirculation of a mid-latitude gyre     

Bernard Barnier  Christian Le Provost 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》1993,18(1-2)

Several numerical experiments are conducted to examine the influence of mesoscale, bottom topography roughness on the inertial circulation of a wind-driven, mid-latitude ocean gyre. The ocean model is based on the quasi-geostrophic formulation, and is eddy-resolving as it features high vertical and horizontal resolutions (six layers and a 10 km grid). An antisymmetrical double-gyre wind stress curl forces the baroclinic modes and generates a strong surface jet. In the case of a flat bottom, inertia and inverse energy cascade force the barotropic mode, and the resulting circulation features strong, barotropic, inertial gyres. The sea-floor roughness inhibits the inertial circulation in the deep layers; the barotropic component of the flow is then forced by eddy-topography interactions, and its energy concentrates at the scales of the topography. As a result, the baroclinicity of the flow is intesified: the barotropic mode is reduced with regard to the baroclinic modes, and the bottom flow (constrained by the mesoscale sea-floor roughness) is decoupled from the surface flow (forced by the gyre-scale wind). Rectified, mesoscale bottom circulation induces an interfacial form stress at the thermocline, which enhances horizontal shear instability and opposes the eastward penetration of the jet. The mean jet is consequently shortened, but the instantaneous jet remains very turbulent, with meanders of large meridional extent. The sea-floor roughness modifies the energy pathways, and the eddies have an even more important role in the establishment of the mean circulation: below the thermocline, rectification processes are dominant, and eddies transfer energy toward permanent mesoscale circulations strongly correlated with topography, whereas above the thermocline mean flow and eddy generation are influenced by the mean bottom circulation through interfacial stress. The topography modifies the vorticity of the barotropic and highest baroclinic modes. Vorticity accumulates at the small topographic scales, and the vorticity content of the highest modes, which is very weak in the flat-bottom case, increases significantly. Few changes occur in surface-intensified modes. In the deep layers of the model, the inverse correlation between relative vorticity and topography at small scales ensures the homogenization of the potential vorticity, which mainly retains the largest scales of the bottom flow and the scale of β.  相似文献