山东省多模式强降水落区预报检验     

曲巧娜  盛春岩  车军辉  荣艳敏  范苏丹  肖明静 《气象科技》2016,44(3):392-399

由于模式对于强降水落区预报有一定的偏差,TS评分不能完美的刻画模式预报强降水的问题,制定了强降水落区偏离程度的检验方法,基于此种方法对多模式(EnWRF、WRF-RUC、T639和EC-thin)山东省2014、2015年5—9月16次强降水过程预报的降水落区形态进行检验。结果表明:除了副高摆动引起的局地强对流天气外,其他过程模式预报均有指示意义,其中预报效果最好的是EnWRF和EC-thin,降水落区的形态与实况的相似度极高,并且表现出一定的互补性。多数情况下,模式预报的强降水中心整体比实况偏小,EC-thin和EnWRF漏报次数最少、准确次数最多,T639次之,WRF-RUC漏报次数最多并且准确次数最少。对于预报有偏离的过程,各模式整体雨区的偏离方向大多偏西或偏北。  相似文献   

低温气体辅助煤层气压裂中的冷冲击机理          下载免费PDF全文

张亮  罗炯  崔国栋  范志坤  任韶然  张建光  杨勇  车航 《地球科学》2016,41(4):664-674

液N₂等气体辅助煤层气压裂的常规机理已较为清楚,但其低温特征对煤层物性的影响以及对压裂效果的改善机理尚未引起重视,缺乏理论认识.归纳总结了低温气体对煤岩的冷冲击作用机制,评价了地层水的结冰条件和低温气体的热物性,通过室内实验和数值模拟等手段验证和预测了液N₂对煤岩及近井煤层的冷冲击效果,并进行了冷冲击机理应用潜力分析.研究结果表明,煤层气压裂过程中注入N₂等低温气体对煤层进行冷冲击,可引起煤岩基质收缩和地层水结冰膨胀,使煤岩产生大量微裂缝和力学强度降低(10%~30%),有利于实现冰晶暂堵和改善煤层气压裂效果.以沁水盆地樊庄区块3#煤层为例,当液N₂注入总量为30~120 m3时,可在近井周围3~5 m内形成低温区(＜-20 ℃),煤层孔隙度将平均增大约1.5倍,渗透率增大4倍,还可造成煤岩的拉伸和挤压破坏.利用低温气体的冷冲击机理及其产生的冰晶暂堵可以作为改进煤层气和页岩气压裂工艺的新方向.   相似文献   

Dynamic response characteristics of a rock slope with discontinuous joints under the combined action of earthquakes and rapid water drawdown     

Danqing Song  Ailan Che  Renjie Zhu  Xiurun Ge 《Landslides》2018,15(6):1109-1125

In order to study the dynamic response characteristics of a rock slope with discontinuities under the combined action of earthquakes and rapid water drawdown, a large-scale shaking table test was performed on a rock slope with discontinuous joints. Wenchuan earthquake (WE) seismic records were performed to investigate the horizontal and vertical acceleration response and displacement response. In particular, three-dimensional optical measurement techniques was used to obtain the slope surface displacements. A comparison was made on the seismic response according to the analysis of PGD (peak ground displacement) and M _PGA (acceleration amplification coefficient) of the modeled slope. The results show that the experimental slope mainly underwent settlement and horizontal deformation when the WE records were applied in the z and x directions, respectively. The slope was first shaken by the P wave, which caused the differential settlement to occur at the surface slope; then, the slope was shaken more severely by the S wave, which led to a greater horizontal deformation. Moreover, analysis of the ΔPGD (increment of PGD) and ΔM _PGA (increment of M _PGA) under rapid drawdown suggests that the rapid water drawdown mainly impacts the deformation of the surface slope, particularly between the high and low water levels. The water infiltration through the cracks softened the material of the surface slope, and the rapid drawdown also enhanced the slope deformation. In addition, the damage evolution process of the slope can be identified, mainly including three stages: an elastic stage (<?0.168 g), a plastic stage (0.168–0.336 g), and a failure stage (>?0.336 g).  相似文献   

MM5模式在高性能系统FreeBSD上的移植及其与RHAS 4的性能比较     

刘澈  俞斌翔  闫淑莲 《气象科技》2007,35(3):327-329

MM5模式系统常被用在气象科研和天气预报当中,通常运行在商业版本的Unix/Linux系统上,对非商业版本的类Unix系统并不太友好。文章详细介绍了MM5V3.7在高性能免费Unix操作系统FreeBSD 6.0上的移植及其应注意的问题,并通过一个个例分别在FreeBSD 6.0和Red Hat Advanced Server 4(RHAS 4)上的运行来比较其效率。通过对比发现,FreeBSD的性能要比通常所用的Linux系统有较大的提高,这对于改善实际业务中的时间迫切性问题有很大的意义。  相似文献   

An assessment of paleodepositional environment and maturity of organic matter in sediments of the Setap Shale and Belait formations in West Sabah,East Malaysia by organic geochemical methods     

Amer M. Burgan  Che Aziz Ali 《中国地球化学学报》2010,29(1):42-52

The black shale samples collected from two Neogene formations in the Klias Peninsula area, West Sabah, have been assessed and characterized in details by gas chromatography, gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and a variety of organic geochemical parameters. The aims of this study are to describe the characteristics of organic matter of these sediments in terms of source/type of the organic matter, assess its thermal maturity and paleoenvironment of deposition, based primarily on biomarker distributions. The results of both formations do not reveal significant differences within the rock extracts. The gas chromatograms of the saturated hydrocarbon fractions of the Setap Shale and the Belait formations displayed monomodal n-alkane distributions and nearly identical regular sterane compositions with a predominance of C₂₇ regular steranes. These are consistent with open marine depositional environments dominated by marine biological matter. Another related feature of these rock extracts is the presence of a high relative abundance of gammacerane, indicating anoxic marine hypersaline source depositional environment. The relatively high abundance of common land plant-derived biomarkers, such as bicadinanes and oleananes, is a clear indication of a major terrigenous input to the source of the extractable organic matter. The predominance of oleanane biomarkers in both formations is indicative of angiospermis input and Tertiary source rocks. The high C₂₉/C₃₀ hopane ratios, moderate development of C₃₃–C₃₅ hopanes, high abundance of tricyclic terpanes and a slight predominance of C₂₇ regular sterane over C₂₈ and C₂₉ steranes are characteristic features tending to suggest a significant marine influence on these source rocks, thereby suggesting a mixed source input. The 22S/(22S+22R)C₃₂ hopane ratio has reached equilibrium, and this is supported by the high maturity level as indicated by the 22S/22SC_31–33 extended hopane ratios and 20S/(20S+20R)C₂₉ regular steranes ratios.  相似文献   

45年间影响中国东海附近海区热带气旋统计特征   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

赵宝庆  车永刚  孙光武 《气象科技》2009,37(5):556-559

根据1961-2005年有编号的热带气旋资料,从时间和空间两个方面统计分析了影响中国东海附近海区（117°-131°E,22°-33°N）的热带气旋特征。结果表明,统计区域内的影响热带气旋具有明显的年际变化特征,年平均频数为8.6个,年频数与厄尔尼诺具有很好的相关性,厄尔尼诺年为影响热带气旋少频年;影响热带气旋主要集中在6-10月,持续时间多在1-4天之间;影响热带气旋大多生成于菲律宾以东洋面和关岛附近洋面,从统计区域的南侧和东侧进入,主要有西北、东北和转向3条移动路径。  相似文献   

基于标准化降水指数的石家庄干旱时空特征   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

车少静  李春强 《气象科技》2010,38(1):66-70

干旱是影响石家庄的主要气象灾害之一。基于1972～2006年石家庄市17个气象站的逐月降水资料,采用标准化降水指数,分析了石家庄的干旱时空分布特征。结果表明,石家庄干旱的发生程度具有阶段性特征,20世纪70年代和90年代是比较严重的干旱阶段,70年代春旱严重,到90年代夏秋旱比较严重。用主成分分析对石家庄干旱的空间分布特征进行分析,石家庄干旱在空间分布上具有显著的一致性,同时也存在一定的区域性,根据因子分析将石家庄分为北部、东部和南部3个区域,90年代后较90年代前东部和南部干旱有所增多,北部减少。  相似文献   

CE-318型太阳光度计常见问题及其解决方法     

张晓春  车慧正  魏垚 《气象科技》2010,38(1)

介绍了CE-318型太阳光度计在运行过程中容易出现的问题,分析和说明了出现问题的原因,并给出了解决办法,提出了对仪器进行日、周、月、年检查、维护注意事项。旨在为台站观测技术人员提高CE-318型观测仪器的使用、维护和检修能力,进行仪器的常规检查和维护提供参考,也为提高仪器运行的稳定性和数据质量的可靠性提供基础保障。  相似文献   

Aerosol optical properties and its radiative forcing over Yulin,China in 2001 and 2002     

车慧正  张小曳  赵剑琦 《大气科学进展》2009,26(3):564-576

The aerosol optical properties and direct radiative forcing over the Mu Us desert of northern China, acquired through a CE318 sunphotometer of the ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET), are analyzed. The seasonal variations in the aerosol optical properties are examined. The effect of meteorological elements (pressure, temperature, water vapor pressure, relative humidity and wind speed) on the aerosol optical properties is also studied. Then, the sources and optical properties under two different cases, a dust event and a pollution event, are compared. The results show that the high aerosol optical depth (AOD) found in Yulin was mostly attributed to the occurrence of dust events in spring from the Mu Us desert and deserts of West China and Mongolia, as well as the impacts of anthropogenic pollutant particles from the middle part of China in the other seasons. The seasonal variation and the probability distribution of the radiative forcing and the radiative forcing efficiency at the surface and the top of the atmosphere are analyzed and regressed using the linear and Gaussian regression methods.  相似文献   

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Tropical Cyclones at Different Intensity Scales over the Western North Pacific from 1945 to 2005          下载免费PDF全文

YUAN Jinnan  LIN Ailan  LIU Chunxia 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2009,23(5):550-561

The tropical cyclone （TC） track data provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center （JTWC） of the U.S. Navy over the western North Pacific （including the South China Sea） from 1945 to 2005 are employed to analyze the temporal and spatial variations of TCs of different intensity scales. Most of the TCs occurred between 15° and 25°N, from the northern part of the South China Sea to the eastern part of the Bashi Channel until near 140°E. Most of the severe and super typhoons occurred over waters from the eastern part of the Bashi Channel to about 140°E. The TCs in a weakening or steady state take up a weak majority in the area west of 123°E and north of 20°N; those in an intensifying or steady state are mostly found in the area east of 123°E and south of 20°N. For severe tropical storms, typhoons, severe typhoons, and super typhoons, their average decaying rates are all greater than the respective average growing rates; for tropical storms, however, the average decaying rate is smaller than the average growing rate. Generally speaking, the stronger the TC, the faster the intensification （weakening） is. The percentage of weak TCs is higher in June to August while that of strong TCs is higher in September to November. There are annual, interannual, and interdecadal variations in the observed number （every 6 h） and frequency of TCs at different intensity scales. As far as the long-term trend is concerned, the frequency and observed number of tropical storms have a significant linear increase, but the averaged intensity and number of TCs of other intensity categories do not exhibit such a significant linear trend. In E1 Nifio years, the number and percentage of super typhoons are significantly higher, while the total number of tropical storms, severe tropical storms, typhoons, and severe typhoons is significantly lower, and the mean intensity of TCs is prominently stronger; in La Nifia years, however, the opposite comes true.  相似文献