About the variability in thunderstorm and rainfall activity over India and its association with El Niño and La Niña     

M. K. Kulkarni  J. V. Revadekar  Hamza Varikoden 《Natural Hazards》2013,69(3):2005-2019

Thunderstorms are of much importance in tropics, as this region is considered to have central role in the convective overturn of the atmosphere and play an important role in rainfall activity. It is well known that El Niño and La Niña are well associated with significant climate anomalies at many places around the globe. Therefore, an attempt is made in this study to analyze variability in thunderstorm days and rainfall activity over Indian region and its association with El Niño and La Niña using data of thunderstorm day’s for 64 stations well distributed all over India for the period 1981–2005 (25 years). It is seen that thunderstorm activity is higher and much variable during pre-monsoon (MAM) and southwest monsoon (JJAS) than the rest of the year. Positive correlation coefficients (CCs) are seen between thunderstorms and rainfall except for the month of June during which the onset of the southwest monsoon sets over the country. CCs during winter months are highly correlated. Composite anomalies in thunderstorms during El Niño and La Niña years suggest that ENSO conditions altered the patterns of thunderstorm activity over the country. Positive anomalies are seen during pre-monsoon (MAM) and southwest monsoon months (JAS) during La Niña years. Opposite features are seen in southwest monsoon during El Niño periods, but El Niño favors thunderstorm activity during pre-monsoon months. There is a clear contrast between the role of ENSO during southwest monsoon and post-monsoon on thunderstorm activity over the country. Time series of thunderstorms and precipitation show strong association with similarities in their year-to-year variation over the country.  相似文献   

Negative Bias and Increased Variability in VOC Concentrations Using the HydraSleeve in Monitoring Wells          下载免费PDF全文

Thomas E. McHugh  Poonam R. Kulkarni  Lila M. Beckley  Charles J. Newell  Marilyn Zumbro 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2016,36(1):79-87

The HydraSleeve is a sampling device for collecting groundwater from the screened interval of a monitoring well without purging that uses a check valve to take in water over the first 3 to 5 feet of an upward pulling motion. If the check valve does not perform as expected, then the HydraSleeve has the potential to collect water from an incorrect depth interval, possibly above the screened interval of the well. We have evaluated volatile organic chemical (VOC) results from groundwater samples collected with the HydraSleeve sampler compared to other methods for sampling monitoring wells at three sites. At all three sites, lower VOC concentration results were observed for samples collected using the HydraSleeve. At two of these three sites, the low concentration sample results were most strongly associated with monitoring wells with more than 10 feet of water above the monitoring well‐screened interval. At the site with the largest dataset, the median bias for samples collected with HydraSleeve was ?20% (p < 0.001). At this site, a bias of ?26% (p < 0.001) was observed for the subset of monitoring wells with greater than 10 feet of water above the screened interval compared to a bias of ?7% (p = 0.21) for wells screened across the top of the water table. In addition to lower VOC concentrations, the monitoring records obtained using the HydraSleeve were more variable compared to monitoring records obtained using purge sampling methods, a characteristic that would make it more difficult to determine the long‐term concentration trend in the well.  相似文献   

The chemical compositions of 10 new sub-DLAs and strong Lyman-limit systems at z≲ 1.5     

Joseph D. Meiring  Varsha P. Kulkarni  James T. Lauroesch  Celine Péroux  Pushpa Khare  Donald G. York  Arlin P. S. Crotts 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,384(3):1015-1033

We present chemical abundance measurements from medium-resolution observations of eight subdamped Lyα (sub-DLA) absorber and two strong Lyman-limit systems at   z ≲ 1.5  observed with the Magellan Inamori Kyocera Echelle (MIKE) spectrograph on the 6.5-m Magellan II Clay telescope. These observations were taken as part of an ongoing project to determine abundances in   z _abs≲ 1.5  quasar absorption line systems focusing on sub-DLA systems. These observations increase the sample of Zn measurements in   z _abs≲ 1.5  sub-DLAs by ∼50 per cent. Lines of Mg  i , Mg  ii , Al  ii , Al  iii , Ca  ii , Mn  ii , Fe  ii and Zn  ii were detected and column densities were determined. Zn  ii , a relatively undepleted element and tracer of the gas-phase metallicity is detected in two of these systems, with  [Zn/H]=−0.05 ± 0.12  and  [Zn/H] > +0.86  . The latter one is however a weak system with   N _{H  I} < 18.8  , and therefore may need significant ionization corrections to the abundances. Fe  ii lines were detected in all systems, with an average Fe abundance of  〈[Fe/H]〉=−0.68  , higher than typical Fe abundances for DLA systems at these redshifts. This high mean [Fe/H] could be due to less depletion of Fe on to dust grains, or to higher abundances in these systems. We also discuss the relative abundances in these absorbers. The systems with high metallicity show high ratios of [Mn/Fe] and [Zn/Fe], as seen previously in another sub-DLA. These higher values of [Mn/Fe] could be a result of heavy depletion of Fe on to grains, unmixed gas, or an intrinsically non-solar abundance pattern. Based on cloudy modelling, we do not expect ionization effects to cause this phenomenon.  相似文献   

Accretion to magnetized stars through the Rayleigh–Taylor instability: global 3D simulations     

A. K. Kulkarni  M. M. Romanova 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,386(2):673-687

We present results of 3D simulations of magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) instabilities at the accretion disc–magnetosphere boundary. The instability is Rayleigh–Taylor, and develops for a fairly broad range of accretion rates and stellar rotation rates and magnetic fields. It manifests itself in the form of tall, thin tongues of plasma that penetrate the magnetosphere in the equatorial plane. The shape and number of the tongues changes with time on the inner disc dynamical time-scale. In contrast with funnel flows, which deposit matter mainly in the polar region, the tongues deposit matter much closer to the stellar equator. The instability appears for relatively small misalignment angles, Θ≲ 30°, between the star's rotation and magnetic axes, and is associated with higher accretion rates. The hotspots and light curves during accretion through instability are generally much more chaotic than during stable accretion. The unstable state of accretion has possible implications for quasi-periodic oscillations and intermittent pulsations from accreting systems, as well as planet migration.  相似文献   

Comparative evaluation of performances of two versions of NCEP climate forecast system in predicting Indian summer monsoon rainfall   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Nachiketa Acharya  Makarand A. Kulkarni  Uma C. Mohanty  Ankita Singh 《Acta Geophysica》2014,62(1):199-219

The operational prediction of climatic variables in monthly-to-seasonal scales has been issued by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) through Climate Forecast System model (CFSv1) since 2004. After incorporating significant changes, a new version of this model (CFSv2) was released in 2011. The present study is based on the comparative evaluation of performances of CFSv2 and CFSv1 for the southwest monsoon season (June-July-August-September, JJAS) over India with May initial condition during 1982–2009. It was observed that CFSv2 has improved over CFSv1 in simulating the observed monsoon rainfall climatology and inter annual variability. The movement of the cell of Walker circulation in years of excessive and deficient rainfall is better captured in CFSv2, as well. The observed teleconnection pattern between ISMR-sea surface temperature (SST) is also better captured in CFSv2. The overall results suggest that the changes incorporated in CFSv1 through the development of CFSv2 have resulted in an improved prediction of ISMR.21  相似文献   

Seasonal prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over cluster regions of India     

S B Kakade  Ashwini Kulkarni 《Journal of Earth System Science》2017,126(3):34

Shared nearest neighbour (SNN) cluster algorithm has been applied to seasonal (June–September) rainfall departures over 30 sub-divisions of India to identify the contiguous homogeneous cluster regions over India. Five cluster regions are identified. Rainfall departure series for these cluster regions are prepared by area weighted average rainfall departures over respective sub-divisions in each cluster. The interannual and decadal variability in rainfall departures over five cluster regions is discussed. In order to consider the combined effect of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Southern Oscillation (SO), an index called effective strength index (ESI) has been defined. It has been observed that the circulation is drastically different in positive and negative phases of ESI-tendency from January to April. Hence, for each phase of ESI-tendency (positive and negative), separate prediction models have been developed for predicting summer monsoon rainfall over identified clusters. The performance of these models have been tested and found to be encouraging.  相似文献   

Horizontal trench system effects on leachate recirculation in bioreactor landfills     

Krishna R. Reddy  Hanumanth S. Kulkarni  Rajiv K. Giri  Milind V. Khire 《Geomechanics and Geoengineering》2017,12(2):115-136

Horizontal trenches (HTs) are constructed during the waste filling for leachate recirculation in bioreactor landfills. Leachate distribution depends on HT configuration (i.e., spacing between successive HTs), leachate injection rate, modes of injection, and hydraulic properties and MSW heterogeneity. Presently, the effects of these variables on the moisture distribution have not been studied systematically. This study provides a systematic evaluation of the effect of the HTs variables on the moisture distribution and pore fluid pressures. A two-phase flow model is used to model a bioreactor landfill having an HT leachate injection system. It quantifies the effects of the unsaturated hydraulic properties and MSW heterogeneity, trench configuration, leachate injection flux, and mode of injection on hydraulic behaviour. The results show that unsaturated hydraulic conductivity and MSW heterogeneity significantly shape the zone of influence and excess pore pressures. Under heterogeneous-anisotropic conditions, the leachate migrates more laterally and the developed pore-pressures are lower than for homogeneous MSW. A closely-spaced, multi-level, staggered HT system is found to provide uniform and adequate moisture distribution in MSW. An intermittent mode of injection that alternates between the shallow and deep trenches with a higher leachate injection flow rate is found to be effective to control the excess pore pressures.  相似文献   

Estimation of confidence interval for hydrological design value for some continuous distributions under complete and censored samples     

S. K. Powar  H. V. Kulkarni 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2015,29(6):1691-1708

The quantile of a probability distribution, known as return period or hydrological design value of a hydrological variable is the value corresponding to fixed non-exceedence probability and is very important notion in hydrology. In hydraulic engineering design and water resources management, confidence interval (CI) estimation for a population quantile is of primary interest and among other applications, is used to assess the pollution level of a contaminant in water, air etc. The accuracy on such estimation directly influences the engineering investments and safety. The two parameter Weibull, Pareto, Lognormal, Inverse Gaussian, Gamma are some commonly used probability models in such applications. In spite of its practical importance, the problem of CI estimation of a quantile of these widely applicable distributions has been less attended in the literature. In this paper, a new method is proposed to obtain a CI for a quantile of any distribution for which [or the probability distribution of any one-to-one function of the underlying random variable (RV)] generalized pivotal quantities (GPQs) exist for its parameters. The proposed method is elucidated by constructing CIs for quantiles of Weibull, Pareto, Lognormal, Extreme value distribution of type-I for minimum, Exponential and Normal distributions for complete as well as type II singly right censored samples. The empirical performance evaluation of the proposed method evinced that the proposed method has exact well concentrated coverage probabilities near the nominal level even for small uncensored samples as small as 5 and for censored samples as long as the proportion of censored observations is up to 0.70. The existing methods for Weibull distribution have poor or dispersed coverage probabilities with respect to the nominal level for complete samples. Applications of the proposed method in ground water monitoring and in the assessment of air pollution are illustrated for practitioners.  相似文献   

Teleconnections: Northern hemisphere lower stratospheric geopotential heights and Indian monsoon rainfall     

R. H. Kripalani  A. Kulkarni  S. R. Inamdar  K. D. Prasad 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》1999,69(3-4):195-203

Summary In this study a search for teleconnection is made between the Northern Hemisphere lower stratospheric geopotential heights and Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) through the correlation analysis approach. Monthly grid-point 50 hPa geopotential height data and the June to September IMR are used for the period 1958–1990.Analysis reveal that there are domains over the Northern Hemisphere where the variation of the geopotential heights during the preceding months of the monsoon period are related with the interannual behaviour of the IMR. During January and February significant positive correlations are seen along the lower latitudes (10°–20° N). However, the maximum relationship is seen during March, with high positive correlations over the Canadian sector and negative correlations over the east Asian sector. The correlation configuration weakens considerably, once the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) cases are excluded, suggesting that the correlation pattern obtained may be a manifestation of the ENSO cycle. Implications of these results in the long range forecasting of IMR are also discussed.With 5 Figures  相似文献   

Climatology and variability of historical Soviet snow depth data: some new perspectives in snow – Indian monsoon teleconnections     

R. H. Kripalani  A. Kulkarni 《Climate Dynamics》1999,15(6):475-489

 This study presents the monthly climatology and variability of the historical soviet snow depth data. This data set was developed under the bilateral data exchange agreement between United States of America and the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. The original data is for 284 stations for periods varying from 1881 upto 1985. The seasonal cycle of the mean snow depth has been presented both as spatial maps and as averages over key locations. The deepest snow (=80 cms/day) areas are found over Siberia (in Particular over 80′–100 ′E, 55′–70 ′N) during March. Over the course of the annual cycle average snow depth over this region changes dramatically from about 10 cms in October to about 80 cms in March. The variability is presented in the form of spatial maps of standard deviation. To investigate the interaction of snow depth with Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR), lag and lead correlation coefficients are computed. Results reveal that the winter-time snow depth over western Eurasia surrounding Moscow (eastern Eurasia in central Siberia) shows significant negative (positive) relationship with subsequent IMR. Following the monsoon the signs of relationship reverse over both the regions. This correlation structure is indicative of a midlatitude longwave pattern with an anomalous ridge (trough) over Asia during the winter prior to a strong (weak) monsoon. As the time progresses from winter to spring, the coherent areas of significant relationship show southeastward propagation. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of the snow depth reveal that the first mode describes a dipole-type structure with one centre around Moscow and the other over central Siberia, depicting similar pattern as the spatial correlation structure. The decadal-scale IMR variations seem to be more associated with the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude snow depth variations rather than with the tropical ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) variability. Received: 16 March 1998 / Accepted: 24 December 1998  相似文献