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Alessandro Comunian Leonardo De Micheli Claudio Lazzati Fabrizio Felletti Francesca Giacobbo Mauro Giudici Riccardo Bersezio 《Hydrogeology Journal》2016,24(2):319-334
The fine-scale heterogeneity of porous media affects the large-scale transport of solutes and contaminants in groundwater and it can be reproduced by means of several geostatistical simulation tools. However, including the available geological information in these tools is often cumbersome. A hierarchical simulation procedure based on a binary tree is proposed and tested on two real-world blocks of alluvial sediments, of a few cubic meters volume, that represent small-scale aquifer analogs. The procedure is implemented using the sequential indicator simulation, but it is so general that it can be adapted to various geostatistical simulation tools, improving their capability to incorporate geological information, i.e., the sedimentological and architectural characterization of heterogeneity. When compared with a standard sequential indicator approach on bi-dimensional simulations, in terms of proportions and connectivity indicators, the proposed procedure yields reliable results, closer to the reference observations. Different ensembles of three-dimensional simulations based on different hierarchical sequences are used to perform numerical experiments of conservative solute transport and to obtain ensembles of equivalent pore velocity and dispersion coefficient at the scale length of the blocks (meter). Their statistics are used to estimate the impact of the variability of the transport properties of the simulated blocks on contaminant transport modeled on bigger domains (hectometer). This is investigated with a one-dimensional transport modeling based on the Kolmogorov-Dmitriev theory of branching stochastic processes. Applying the proposed approach with diverse binary trees and different simulation settings provides a great flexibility, which is revealed by the differences in the breakthrough curves. 相似文献
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Stefani Marco Minarelli Luca Fontana Alessandro Hajdas Irka 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2018,107(7):2433-2447
International Journal of Earth Sciences - Our research is aimed at estimating the vertical deformation affecting late Quaternary units accumulated into the foreland basin of the Northern Apennines... 相似文献
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Alessandro Amorosi Luigi Bruno Bruno Campo Bianca Costagli Wan Hong Vincenzo Picotti Stefano Claudio Vaiani 《Sedimentology》2021,68(1):402-424
Despite increased application of subsurface datasets below the limits of seismic resolution, reconstructing near‐surface deformation of shallow key stratigraphic markers beneath modern alluvial and coastal plains through sediment core analysis has received little attention. Highly resolved stratigraphy of Upper Pleistocene to Holocene (Marine Isotope Stage 5e to Marine Isotope Stage 1) alluvial, deltaic and coastal depositional systems across the southern Po Plain, down to 150 m depth, provides an unambiguous documentation on the deformation of previously flat‐lying strata that goes back in time beyond the limits of morphological, historical and palaeoseismic records. Five prominent key horizons, accurately selected on the basis of their sedimentological characteristics and typified for their fossil content, were used as highly effective stratigraphic markers (M1 to M5) that can be tracked for tens of kilometres across the basin. A facies‐controlled approach tied to a robust chronology (102 radiocarbon dates) reveals considerable deformation of laterally extensive nearshore (M1), continental (M2 and M3) and lagoon (M4 and M5) marker beds originally deposited in a horizontal position (M1, M4 and M5). The areas where antiformal geometries are best observed are remarkably coincident with the axes of buried ramp anticlines, across which new seismic images reveal substantially warped stratal geometries of Lower Pleistocene strata. The striking spatial coincidence of fold crests with the epicentres of historic and instrumental seismicity suggests that deformation of marker beds M1 to M5 might reflect, in part at least, syntectonically generated relief and, thus, active tectonism. Precise identification and lateral tracing of chronologically constrained stratigraphic markers in the 14C time window through combined sedimentological and palaeoecological data may delineate late Quaternary subsurface stratigraphic architecture at an unprecedented level of detail, outlining cryptic stratal geometries at the sub‐seismic scale. This approach is highly reproducible in tectonically active Quaternary depositional systems and can help to assess patterns of active deformation in the subsurface of modern alluvial and coastal plains worldwide. 相似文献
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Tobias Lung Carlo Lavalle Roland Hiederer Alessandro Dosio Laurens M. Bouwer 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(2):522-536
To better prioritise adaptation strategies to a changing climate that are currently being developed, there is a need for quantitative regional level assessments that are systematic and comparable across multiple weather hazards. This study presents an indicator-based impact assessment framework at NUTS-2 level for the European Union that quantifies potential regional changes in weather-related hazards: heat stress in relation to human health, river flood risk, and forest fire risk. This is done by comparing the current (baseline) situation with two future time periods, 2011–2040 and 2041–2070. The indicator values for the baseline period are validated against observed impact data. For each hazard, the method integrates outcomes of a set of coherent high-resolution regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project based on the SRES A1B emission scenario, with current and projected non-climatic drivers of risk, such as land use and socio-economic change. An index of regional adaptive capacity has been developed and compared with overall hazard impact in order to identify the potentially most vulnerable regions in Europe. The results show strongest increases in impacts for heat stress, followed by forest fire risk, while for flood risk the sign and magnitude of change vary across regions. A major difference with previous studies is that heat stress risk could increase most in central Europe, which is due to the ageing population there. An overall assessment combining the three hazards shows a clear trend towards increasing impact from climaterelated natural hazards for most parts of Europe, but hotspot regions are found in eastern and southern Europe due to their low adaptive capacities. This spatially explicit assessment can serve as a basis for discussing climate adaptation mainstreaming, and priorities for regional development in the EU. 相似文献
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I. Becchi E. Caporali L. Castellani E. Palmisano F. Castelli 《Surveys in Geophysics》1995,16(2):227-252
In the study of flash-flood occurrence in small catchments the lack of flow measurements is often one of the main limiting factors. Prior to estimating the forecasting potentialities and techniques for such events, an accurate reconstruction of past event flood dynamics is first required. This issue is here addressed by analyzing, with the use of a distributed hydrological model, the hydrometeorological conditions in which a severe flash-flood occurred, on October 1992, on a 48 square kilometers catchment in the Arno basin. Such an event was caused by the persistence of intense convective clusters on the background of widespread rain bands of frontal origin. The distributed hydrological model here adopted is devoted to simulate the evolution and the variability of the primary processes involved in the runoff cycle. Together with the hydrological model structure, other particular aspects of the event reconstruction procedure are discussed: the managing and processing of the information coming from different sensors, with different temporal and spatial resolutions; the identification of local precipitation dynamics (frontal or convective) within small areas of integrated radar and rain gauges data fields; the interpolation of rain gauge data on the basis of the radar-estimated spatial correlation. The results of the distributed modeling, concerning the estimate of the flood wave at various sites, are compared with analogous results obtained with simpler lumped models. 相似文献
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