Comparison of statistically downscaled precipitation in terms of future climate indices and daily variability for southern Ontario and Quebec,Canada     

Carlos F. Gaitan  William W. Hsieh  Alex J. Cannon 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(12):3201-3217

Given the coarse resolution of global climate models, downscaling techniques are often needed to generate finer scale projections of variables affected by local-scale processes such as precipitation. However, classical statistical downscaling experiments for future climate rely on the time-invariance assumption as one cannot know the true change in the variable of interest, nor validate the models with data not yet observed. Our experimental setup involves using the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) outputs as pseudo-observations to estimate model performance in the context of future climate projections by replacing historical and future observations with model simulations from the CRCM, nested within the domain of the Canadian global climate model (CGCM). In particular, we evaluated statistically downscaled daily precipitation time series in terms of the Peirce skill score, mean absolute errors, and climate indices. Specifically, we used a variety of linear and nonlinear methods such as artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees and ensembles, multiple linear regression, and k-nearest neighbors to generate present and future daily precipitation occurrences and amounts. We obtained the predictors from the CGCM 3.1 20C3M (1971–2000) and A2 (2041–2070) simulations, and precipitation outputs from the CRCM 4.2 (forced with the CGCM 3.1 boundary conditions) as predictands. Overall, ANN models and tree ensembles outscored the linear models and simple nonlinear models in terms of precipitation occurrences, without performance deteriorating in future climate. In contrast, for the precipitation amounts and related climate indices, the performance of downscaling models deteriorated in future climate.  相似文献   

Climate change hotspots mapping: what have we learned?     

Alex de Sherbinin 《Climatic change》2014,123(1):23-37

In the past 5 years there has been a proliferation of efforts to map climate change “hotspots” — regions that are particularly vulnerable to current or future climate impacts, and where human security may be at risk. While some are academic exercises, many are produced with the goal of drawing policy maker attention to regions that are particularly susceptible to climate impacts, either to mitigate the risk of humanitarian crises or conflicts or to target adaptation assistance. Hotspots mapping efforts address a range of issues and sectors such as vulnerable populations, humanitarian crises, conflict, agriculture and food security, and water resources. This paper offers a timely assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of current hotspots mapping approaches with the goal of improving future efforts. It also highlights regions that are anticipated, based on combinations of high exposure, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity, to suffer significant impacts from climate change.  相似文献   

Refining management strategies for groundwater resources     

Wendy A. Klein  Alex K. Manda  Michael T. Griffin 《Hydrogeology Journal》2014,22(8):1727-1730

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Basement lithostratigraphy of the Adula nappe: implications for Palaeozoic evolution and Alpine kinematics   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mattia Cavargna-Sani  Jean-Luc Epard  François Bussy  Alex Ulianov 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2014,103(1):61-82

The Adula nappe belongs to the Lower Penninic domain of the Central Swiss Alps. It consists mostly of pre-Triassic basement lithologies occurring as strongly folded and sheared gneisses of various types with mafic boudins. We propose a new lithostratigraphy for the northern Adula nappe basement that is supported by detailed field investigations, U–Pb zircon geochronology, and whole-rock geochemistry. The following units have been identified: Cambrian clastic metasediments with abundant carbonate lenses and minor bimodal magmatism (Salahorn Formation); Ordovician metapelites associated with amphibolite boudins with abundant eclogite relicts representing oceanic metabasalts (Trescolmen Formation); Ordovician peraluminous metagranites of calc-alkaline affinity ascribed to subduction-related magmatism (Garenstock Augengneiss); Ordovician metamorphic volcanic–sedimentary deposits (Heinisch Stafel Formation); Early Permian post-collisional granites recording only Alpine orogenic events (Zervreila orthogneiss). All basement lithologies except the Permian granites record a Variscan + Alpine polyorogenic metamorphic history. They document a complex Paleozoic geotectonic evolution consistent with the broader picture given by the pre-Mesozoic basement framework in the Alps. The internal consistency of the Adula basement lithologies and the stratigraphic coherence of the overlying Triassic sediments suggest that most tectonic contacts within the Adula nappe are pre-Alpine in age. Consequently, mélange models for the Tertiary emplacement of the Adula nappe are not consistent and must be rejected. The present-day structural complexity of the Adula nappe is the result of the intense Alpine ductile deformation of a pre-structured entity.  相似文献   

Mercury colonial footprint in Darién Gulf sediments,Colombia     

Alex Rúa  Gerd Liebezeit  Jaime Palacio-Baena 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(4):1781-1789

The mercury (Hg) deposition history in the Darién Gulf is reconstructed from three sediment cores spanning up to 1,000 years. Knowledge on the contribution to global Hg budget from the Caribbean is limited. Patterns of water circulation, sediment deposition rates, cataclysmic atmospheric inputs, and post-depositional migration have been considered in Hg trapping in the seabed. The sediment delivery rates to the coastal zone over the Late Holocene have increased from 0.2 to 1 cm year^?1 owing to anthropogenic influence. This alteration took the form of geological effects, like coastal morphology change, that played a major role in Hg downcore signal preservation. Natural background Hg levels in Southern Caribbean sediments (77.0 μg kg^?1) are up to three times higher than preindustrial signals at other latitudes, because of volcanic contributions from the Pacific ring of fire. Enrichment factors rose from 0.9 to 1.5 (70.1–113.5 μg kg^?1) within profiles related to Hg usage since Spanish colonial times between the calendar years 1550 and 1811.  相似文献   

Influence of artificial channels on the source and extent of saline water intrusion in the wind tide dominated wetlands of the southern Albemarle estuarine system (USA)   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Alex K. Manda  Angela S. Giuliano  Thomas R. Allen 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(10):4409-4419

Saline water intrusion is degrading water quality in the channelized coastal wetlands of the southern Albemarle estuarine system (AES). The source, transport and fate of the saline water in the southern AES was determined by monitoring specific conductivity and water levels in small artificial channels, the Alligator River, the Alligator–Pungo Canal and the groundwater system for ~12 months. Results indicate that water levels are affected by wind tides which trigger the movement of saline water into the interior of the wetlands via the small canals. The wind tides are mostly driven by episodic southerly winds pushing saline water into the canal network and the groundwater regime proximal to the Alligator River. The saline waters persist in the canals as long as the wind tide events last. Specific conductivities from canals and groundwater are shown to be unexpectedly higher closer to the source of the Alligator River than toward the Albemarle Sound, suggesting that the large Alligator–Pungo Canal facilitates the northward migration of saline water from the Pamlico Sound to the Alligator River. Overwash and reversals in the flow directions between groundwater and surface water bodies suggest that saline water that is present during wind tide events may migrate into the groundwater system from surface water bodies. The results of this study reveal that whereas the large Alligator–Pungo Canal channels saline water to the AES, small artificial channels may also play significant roles in degrading water quality in the interior of channelized coastal wetlands.  相似文献   

A re-examination of petrogenesis and 40Ar/39Ar systematics in the Chain of Ponds K-feldspar: “diffusion domain” archetype versus polyphase hygrochronology     

Alex N. Chafe  Igor M. Villa  John M. Hanchar  Richard Wirth 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,167(5):1-17

K-feldspar (Kfs) from the Chain of Ponds Pluton (CPP) is the archetypal reference material, upon which thermochronological modeling of Ar diffusion in discrete “domains” was founded. We re-examine the CPP Kfs using cathodoluminescence and back-scattered electron imaging, transmission electron microscopy, and electron probe microanalysis. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar stepwise heating experiments on different sieve fractions, and on handpicked and unpicked aliquots, are compared. Our results reproduce the staircase-shaped age spectrum and the Arrhenius trajectory of the literature sample, confirming that samples collected from the same locality have an identical Ar isotope record. Even the most pristine-looking Kfs from the CPP contains successive generations of secondary, metasomatic/retrograde mineral replacements that post-date magmatic crystallization. These chemically and chronologically distinct phases are responsible for its staircase-shaped age spectra, which are modified by handpicking. While genuine within-grain diffusion gradients are not ruled out by these data, this study demonstrates that the most important control on staircase-shaped age spectra is the simultaneous presence of heterochemical, diachronous post-magmatic mineral growth. At least five distinct mineral species were identified in the Kfs separate, three of which can be traced to external fluids interacting with the CPP in a chemically open system. Sieve fractions have size-shifted Arrhenius trajectories, negating the existence of the smallest “diffusion domains.” Heterochemical phases also play an important role in producing nonlinear trajectories. In vacuo degassing rates recovered from Arrhenius plots are neither related to true Fick’s Law diffusion nor to the staircase shape of the age spectra. The CPP Kfs used to define the “diffusion domain” model demonstrates the predominance of metasomatic alteration by hydrothermal fluids and recrystallization in establishing the natural Ar distribution among different coexisting phases that gives rise to the staircase-shaped age spectrum. Microbeam imaging of textures is as essential for ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar hygrochronology as it is for U–Pb geochronology.  相似文献   

New insight on the genus Nolaniceras Casey, 1961 (Ammonoidea,Cretaceous) and its consequences on the biostratigraphy of the Aptian Stage     

Luc G. Bulot  Jean-Louis Latil  Alex Hairabian  Arnaud Fournillon 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2014

Nolaniceras nolani ( Seunes, 1887) has been widely quoted in the Upper Aptian literature over the years. Re-examination of the holotype of the species shows that it has always been misidentified and that this taxon is represented by a single specimen, the holotype, of uncertain age. As a consequence, its use as an index species for the Upper Aptian should be reconsidered and abandoned.  相似文献   

Graded-Density Reservoirs for Accessing High Stress Low Temperature Material States   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Raymond F. Smith  K. Thomas Lorenz  Darwin Ho  Bruce A. Remington  Alex Hamza  John Rogers  Stephen Pollaine  Seokwoo Jeon  Yun-Suk Nam  J. Kilkenny 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2007,307(1-3):269-272

In recently developed laser-driven shockless compression experiments an ablatively driven shock in a primary target is transformed into a ramp compression wave in a secondary target via unloading followed by stagnation across an intermediate vacuum gap. Current limitations on the achievable peak longitudinal stresses are limited by the ability of shaping the temporal profile of the ramp compression pulse. We report on new techniques using graded density reservoirs for shaping the loading profile and extending these techniques to high peak pressures.  相似文献   

Bridging the Gap III: Impact cratering in nature,experiment, and modeling          下载免费PDF全文

Thomas Kenkmann  Michael H. Poelchau  Alex Deutsch 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2017,52(7):1281-1284

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