Intercomparison of multiple statistical downscaling methods: multi-criteria model selection for South Korea     

Hyung-Il?EumEmail author  Alex?J.?Cannon  Trevor?Q.?Murdock 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(3):683-703

A number of statistical downscaling methodologies have been introduced to bridge the gap in scale between outputs of climate models and climate information needed to assess potential impacts at local and regional scales. Four statistical downscaling methods [bias-correction/spatial disaggregation (BCSD), bias-correction/constructed analogue (BCCA), multivariate adaptive constructed analogs (MACA), and bias-correction/climate imprint (BCCI)] are applied to downscale the latest climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) data to stations for precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature over South Korea. All methods are calibrated with observational station data for 19 years from 1973 to 1991 and validated for the more recent 19-year period from 1992 to 2010. We construct a comprehensive suite of performance metrics to inter-compare methods, which is comprised of five criteria related to time-series, distribution, multi-day persistence, extremes, and spatial structure. Based on the performance metrics, we employ technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) and apply 10,000 different weighting combinations to the criteria of performance metrics to identify a robust statistical downscaling method and important criteria. The results show that MACA and BCSD have comparable skill in the time-series related criterion and BCSD outperforms other methods in distribution and extremes related criteria. In addition, MACA and BCCA, which incorporate spatial patterns, show higher skill in the multi-day persistence criterion for temperature, while BCSD shows the highest skill for precipitation. For the spatial structure related criterion, BCCA and MACA outperformed BCSD and BCCI. From the TOPSIS analysis, we found that MACA is the most robust method for all variables in South Korea, and BCCA and BCSD are the second for temperature and precipitation, respectively. We also found that the contribution of the multi-day persistence and spatial structure related criteria are crucial to ranking the skill of statistical downscaling methods.  相似文献   

Three-Dimensional Modeling of the Casing Effect in Onshore Controlled-Source Electromagnetic Surveys     

Vladimir Puzyrev  Eloi Vilamajo  Pilar Queralt  Juanjo Ledo  Alex Marcuello 《Surveys in Geophysics》2017,38(2):527-545

The presence of steel-cased wells and other infrastructure causes a significant change in the electromagnetic fields that has to be taken into consideration in modeling and interpretation of field data. A realistic and accurate simulation requires the borehole casing to be incorporated into the modeling scheme, which is numerically challenging. Due to the huge conductivity contrast between the casing and surrounding media, a spatial discretization that provides accurate results at different spatial scales ranging from millimeters to hundreds of meters is required. In this paper, we present a full 3D frequency-domain electromagnetic modeling based on a parallel finite-difference algorithm considering the casing effect and investigate its applicability on the borehole-to-surface configuration of the Hontomín CO₂ storage site. To guarantee a robust solution of linear systems with highly ill-conditioned matrices caused by huge conductivity contrasts and multiple spatial scales in the model, we employ direct sparse solvers. Different scenarios are simulated in order to study the influence of the source position, conductivity model, and the effect of the steel casing on the measured data. Several approximations of the real hollow casing that allow for a large reduction in the number of elements in the resulting meshes are studied. A good agreement between the modeled responses and the real field data demonstrates the feasibility of simulating casing effects in complex geological areas. The steel casing of the well greatly increases the amplitude of the surface electromagnetic fields and thus improves the signal-to-noise ratio and the sensitivity to deep targets.  相似文献   

Towards Real‐Time Geodemographics: Clustering Algorithm Performance for Large Multidimensional Spatial Databases     

Muhammad Adnan  Paul A Longley  Alex D Singleton  Chris Brunsdon 《Transactions in GIS》2010,14(3):283-297

Geodemographic classifications provide discrete indicators of the social, economic and demographic characteristics of people living within small geographic areas. They have hitherto been regarded as products, which are the final “best” outcome that can be achieved using available data and algorithms. However, reduction in computational cost, increased network bandwidths and increasingly accessible spatial data infrastructures have together created the potential for the creation of classifications in near real time within distributed online environments. Yet paramount to the creation of truly real time geodemographic classifications is the ability for software to process and efficiency cluster large multidimensional spatial databases within a timescale that is consistent with online user interaction. To this end, this article evaluates the computational efficiency of a number of clustering algorithms with a view to creating geodemographic classifications “on the fly” at a range of different geographic scales.  相似文献   

Searching of toxic metal pollution by using geospatial technology on the Kodaikanal Lake—near industrial area     

Balamurugan Palani  Sivaprakasam Vasudevan  Thirunavukkarasu Ramkumar 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(20):449

The present study investigates the anthropogenic metal input into the lake system, the toxic metal pollution in the sediments of Kodaikanal Lake. Surface sediment samples were collected at seven locations to represent its spatial variability within the lake. Samples were subjected to analyze for Fe, Co, Cr, Mn, Ni, Zn, Cd, Cu, Ag, Pb, Hg, and As by energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence (EDXRF) and their concentrations in lake sediments range from 102,000–109,000, 561–2699, 292–544, 211–482, 79–163, 57–265, 57–74, 37–92, 46–59, 20–97, 19–30, to 13–24 mg/kg, respectively. The sources of pollution were inferred through spatial and statistical analyses. Most of the toxic metal contents in the sediments are found to exceed the background concentration in all locations. The enrichment factor (EF) and index of geoaccumulation (I _geo) of Hg, Co, Cd, and Ag showed that sediments of Kodaikanal Lake exhibit the probability of anthropogenic influence. The significant Pearson’s correlation coefficient is also suggesting that they probably originated from the same source of occurrence. The contamination factor and degree of contamination of the Kodaikanal Lake sediments are strongly polluted in terms of most of the examined metals. The study also provides environmentally significant information about anthropogenic influence on the lake sediments.  相似文献   

Tectonics,sedimentation and surface processes: from the erosional engine to basin deposition          下载免费PDF全文

Sébastien Castelltort  Alex Whittaker  Jaume Vergés 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2015,40(13):1839-1846

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Modelling particle residence times in agricultural river basins using a sediment budget model and fallout radionuclide tracers   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Hugh G. Smith  William H. Blake  Alex Taylor 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(14):1944-1959

Contemporary patterns in river basin sediment dynamics have been widely investigated but the timescales associated with current sediment delivery processes have received much less attention. Furthermore, no studies have quantified the effect of recent land use change on the residence or travel times of sediment transported through river basins. Such information is crucial for understanding contemporary river basin function and responses to natural and anthropogenic disturbances or management interventions. To address this need, we adopt a process‐based modelling approach to quantify changes in spatial patterns and residence times of suspended sediment in response to recent agricultural land cover change. The sediment budget model SedNet was coupled with a mass balance model of particle residence times based on atmospheric and fluvial fluxes of three fallout radionuclide tracers (⁷Be, excess ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs). Mean annual fluxes of suspended sediment were simulated in seven river basins (38–920 km²) in south‐west England for three land cover surveys (1990, 2000 and 2007). Suspended sediment flux increased across the basins from 0.5–15 to 1.4–37 kt y^‐1 in response to increasing arable land area between consecutive surveys. The residence time model divided basins into slow (upper surface soil) and rapid (river channel and connected hillslope sediment source area) transport compartments. Estimated theoretical residence times in the slow compartment decreased from 13–48 to 5.6–14 ky with the increase in basin sediment exports. In contrast, the short residence times for the rapid compartment increased from 185–256 to 260–368 d as the modelled connected source area expanded with increasing sediment supply from more arable land. The increase in sediment residence time was considered to correspond to longer sediment travel distances linked to larger connected source areas. This novel coupled modelling approach provides unique insight into river basin responses to recent environmental change not otherwise available from conventional measurement techniques. © 2014 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

Benthic respiration and stoichiometry of regenerated nutrients in lake sediments with Dreissena polymorpha     

Tomas Ruginis  Marco Bartoli  Jolita Petkuviene  Mindaugas Zilius  Irma Lubiene  Alex Laini  Arturas Razinkovas-Baziukas 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2014,76(3):405-417

The effect of patchy colonies of the invasive zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) on sedimentary processes was investigated in a mesotrophic lake (Plateliai Lake, Lithuania). Benthic fluxes of O₂, TCO₂, CH₄, Mn²⁺, Fe²⁺, N₂, the inorganic forms of N, Si and P and dissolved organic C and N were quantified by dark incubations of sediments cores, with and without D. polymorpha. Individual mussels also were incubated for metabolic measurements. Sediments with D. polymorpha had significantly higher O₂ and TCO₂ fluxes and displayed higher rates of denitrification. The presence of mussels also resulted in higher regeneration of P and N (mostly as ammonium) while the effect on Si was not significant. However, likely due to the low zebra mussel biomass (57.2 ± 25.3 g_SFDW m^?2), biodeposition has not changed the ratio between anaerobic and total respiration. Methane and reduced metals fluxes were in fact similar in the presence and absence of D. polymorpha. Incubations of mussels without sediments confirmed that bivalve metabolism was the main driver of benthic respiration and nutrient recycling. Nitrate production suggested the presence of nitrifiers associated with the molluscs. The main outcome of this study was that zebra mussels alter the quantity and the stoichiometry of nutrients regenerated by the benthic compartment. The enhancement of nitrogen loss via denitrification, by a factor of 1.5, was much less pronounced than the increase in ammonium recycling rate, stimulated by a factor of 33. Negligible PO₄ ^3? fluxes in bare sediments (?3.4 ± 6.8 μmol m^?2 h^?1) increased in the presence of mussels and considerable amounts of this nutrient (69.6 ± 29.4 μmol m^?2 h^?1) were mobilized to the water column. Further research should address other nutrient sources to the lake to verify whether altered rates and stoichiometry of benthic regeneration can affect primary producer community composition and activity.  相似文献   

Robustness of the holistic seismic risk evaluation in urban centers using the USRi   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Mabel-Cristina Marulanda  Omar D. Cardona  Alex H. Barbat 《Natural Hazards》2009,49(3):501-516

The Urban Seismic Risk index (USRi) published in a previous article (Carreño et al., Nat Hazards 40:137–172, 2007) is a composite indicator that measures risk from an integrated perspective and guides decision-making for identifying the main interdisciplinary factors of vulnerability to be reduced or intervened. The first step of the method is the evaluation of the potential physical damage (hard approach) as a result of the convolution of the seismic hazard with the physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure. Subsequently, a set of social context conditions that aggravate the physical effects is also considered (soft approach). According to this procedure, the physical risk index is evaluated for each unit of analysis from existing loss scenarios, whereas the total risk index is obtained by multiplying the former index by an impact factor using an aggravating coefficient, based on variables associated with the socio-economic conditions of each unit of analysis. The USRi has been developed using the underlying holistic and multi-hazard approach of the Urban Risk Index framework proposed for the evaluation of disaster risk in different megacities worldwide. This article presents the sensitivity analysis of the index to different parameters such as input data, weights and transformation functions used for the scaling or normalization of variables. This analysis has been performed using the Monte Carlo simulation to validate the robustness of this composite indicator, understanding as robustness how the cities maintain the ranking as well as predefined risk level ranges, when compared with the deterministic results of risk. Results are shown for different cities of the world.  相似文献   

High-Resolution Records of the Holocene Paleoenvironmental Variation Reflected by Carbonate and Its Isotopic Compositions in Bosten Lake and Response to Glacial Activities   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

ZHANG Chengjun  ZHENG Mianping  Alexander PROKOPENKO  Steffen MISCHKE  GOU Xiaohui  YANG Qili  ZHANG Wanyi  FENG Zhaodong 《《地质学报》英文版》2009,83(6):1101-1115

Abstract: The Early Holocene paleoclimate in Bosten Lake on the northern margin of the Tarim Basin, southern Xinjiang, is reconstructed through an analysis of a 953 cm long core (BSTC2000) taken from Bosten Lake. Multiple proxies of this core, including the mineral components of carbonate, carbonate content, stable isotopic compositions of carbonate, Ca/Sr, TOC and C/N and C/S of organic matter, are used to reconstruct the climatic change since 8500 a B.P. The chronology model is made by nine AMS 14C ages of leaves, seeds and organic matter contained in two parallel cores. The climate was cold and wet during 8500 to 8100 a B.P. Temperature increased from 8100 to 6400 a B.P., the climate was warm and humid, and the lake expanded. The lake level was highest during this stage. Then from 6400 to 5100 a B.P., the climate became cold and the lake level decreased slightly. During the late mid-Holocene, the climate was hot and dry from 5100 to 3100 a B.P., but there was a short cold period during 4400 to 3800 a B.P. At this temporal interval, a mass of ice and snow melting water supplied the lake at the early time and made the lake level rise. The second highest lake level stage occurred during 5200 to 3800 a B.P. The climate was cool and wet during 3100 to 2200 a B.P., when the lake expanded with decreasing evaporation. The lake had the last short-term high level during 3100 to 2800 a B.P. After this short high lake level period, the lake shrank because of the long-term lower temperature and reduced water supply. From 2200 to 1200 a B.P., the climate was hot and dry, and the lake shrank greatly. Although the temperature decreased somewhat from 1200 a B.P. to the present, the climate was warm and dry. The lake level began to rise a little again, but it did not reach the river bed altitude of the Konqi River, an outflow river of the Bosten Lake.  相似文献   

Oceanic exchange variability across the continental slope west coast,South Island,New Zealand     

Ron A. Heath  Alex E. Gilmour 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(2):327-336

Current observations taken at depths between 630 and 830 m from the west coast South Island continental slope exhibit one‐ to four‐weekly periodicities superimposed on the semi‐diurnal tide. These variable flows at 630 m and otter large, longer‐timescale events have a significart onshore/offshore component of flow which leads to a similar transport of alongshore momentum and heat.  相似文献