Forecasting in the social and natural sciences: An overview and analysis of isomorphisms   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Kenneth C. Land  Stephen H. Schneider 《Climatic change》1987,11(1-2):7-31

This article identifies and analyzes several points of similarity in the structure and context of forecasting in the social and natural sciences. These include: the limits of identities or universal laws as a basis for forecasts; the corresponding need for simplifying parametric representations of one or more of the variables that enter into identities; various sources of uncertainty about parameterizations; intrinsic limitations on predictability or forecasting accuracy in large-scale systems; the need for sensitivity analyses of model responses to changes in exogenous variables and/or parametric structures; problems of model linkage; and the social (organizational and political) context of forecasts. Suggestions for future lines of inquiry are made in each case. Several of these are such that they can benefit from a sharing of experience and expertise across disciplinary lines.The research reported herein was supported in part by the IC² Institute, The University of Texas at Austin, and in part by National Science Foundation Grant Number SES-8411702. However, the opinions expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the sponsoring organizations. We appreciate the advice and comments of Jesse H. Ausubel, Robert S. Chen, Judith Jacobsen, and Richard C. Rockwell on earlier versions of this paper.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.  相似文献   

Editorial: Three essays of remembrance on the life of Helmut Landsberg     

Stephen H. Schneider 《Climatic change》1986,9(3):259-259

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Shallow seismicity at Montagne Pelée volcano,Martinique, Lesser Antilles     

Alfred Hirn  Nicole Girardin  Jean-Pierre Viodé  Sylvain Eschenbrenner 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1987,49(6):723-728

Continuous seismic monitoring at Martinique since the 1902 eruption of the Montagne Pelée volcano did not detect local earthquakes for the first 70 years. For the only eruption which occurred in this time span in 1929 the seismograph was 20 km away and of a standard type, not particularly suited for the detection of small-scale local seismicity. Improvement of the monitoring array over the last 15 years with the installation of sensors on the volcano itself allowed the detection of signals of local origin which were interpreted as being due to surface sources, such as rockfalls and landslides. Since December 1985 seismic sources in the volcano itself, i.e. small earthquakes at shallow depth, were identified and located with the aid of a temporary upgrading of the array close to these weak sources. Such an onset of local seismicity could not have been detected with previous seismic equipment; such episodes of seismicity in the volcano might have occurred in the past, apparently quiescent history of the volcano as the reinterpretation of seismograms of some events in 1976 would indicate, without evolving to more important volcanic phenomena. For seismographs on volcanoes the constant upgrading of observation capabilities is certainly perferred to a strict continuity of standard observations.  相似文献   

Climatology and glaciology: An interdisciplinary opportunity—An editorial     

Stephen H. Schneider 《Climatic change》1982,4(4):327-328

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Polymetamorphic relations in iron ores from the Iron Quadrangle,Brazil: The correlation of oxygen isotope variations with deformation history   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Joachim Hoefs  Georg Müller  Alfred K. Schuster 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1982,79(3):241-251

This study deals with the oxygen isotope composition of hematite-rich ore bodies in the Iron Quadrangle, Brazil. The area studied can be divided into two different regions: a western (W) zone of greenschist facies assemblages and an eastern (E) zone of amphibolite facies with transitions into granulite facies assemblages.The ¹⁸O values of 136 quartz-iron oxide pairs have been determined and temperatures of formation have been calculated. The ¹⁸O values of quartz vary between +6 and 20 except one value near +23, whereas the iron oxides fall between –4 and +10, with nearly 80% of the iron oxide values between –0.5 and 4.0. The regional distribution of the ¹⁸O values is as follows: in the W-region 85% of the quartz are >12, whereas in the E-region only 46% fall in this range, In contrast to quartz the iron oxides do not show any regional differences.The variation of oxygen isotope fractionations between quartz and iron oxides is obviously related to the complex deformation history of the iron ores. Samples with a primary schistosity (S₁) only represent peak metamorphic conditions. In the E-region the (S₁) high temperatures >700° C seem to correspond to orogenic events in the Archaen basement 2,700 m.y. ago. In the W-region S₁-temperatures between 460° and 560° C seem to represent peak metamorphic conditions of the Proterozoic Minas metamorphism 2,000 m.y. ago. Iron ores which have been overprinted by later deformation events are selectively reset to lower isotopic temperatures. The more closely spaced the schistosity planes the larger the extent of a temperature lowering.The genetic processes associated with these hematite-rich ore bodies appear to be sedimentary-metamorphic rather than metasomatic processes. Furthermore, there is no evidence for secondary leaching by weathering solutions.  相似文献   

Orientation of the stress field from breakouts in a crystalline well in a seismic active area     

P. Blümling  K. Fuchs  T. Schneider 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》1983,33(4):250-254

The orientation of the regional stress field in the Swabian Jura was determined from borehole breakouts caused by stress accumulation at the borehole wall. The analysis is based on caliper data recorded in the Urach 3 geothermal well within an intervall of about 1450 m. The azimuths of the breakouts are consistent with depth and indicate a stress direction which is in good agreement with the interpretation of fault plane solutions of nearby earthquakes.  相似文献   

Volcanic dust veils and climate: How clear is the connection? — An editorial     

Stephen H. Schneider 《Climatic change》1983,5(2):111-113

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Alteration of oceanic crust and geologic cycling of chlorine and water   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Emi Ito  David M Harris  Alfred T Anderson 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1983,47(9):1613-1624

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Editor’s Note     

Stephen H. Schneider 《Climatic change》2005,69(1):v

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A Distributed Geoprocessing Concept for Enhancing Terrain Analysis for Environmental Modeling     

Bernhardt Schneider  & Daria Martinoni 《Transactions in GIS》2001,5(2):165-178

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are well suited to support environmental modeling for dealing with space. However, some of the limitations of current GIS are the lack of tools for comprehensive documentation of the models, the inadequate representation of fields, and the deficient methodology for comprehensive management of uncertainty. Using Digital Terrain Modeling and Analysis as an example, this paper proposes an enhanced approach to overcome these drawbacks. It suggests implementing sophisticated functionality for modeling and analysis of fields in special-purpose modules outside monolithic GIS. These modules include three components: (1) an extensive framework for metainformation that allows a sound assessment of the fitness-for-use of digital field representations for environmental modeling applications, (2) an explicit digital representation of the field phenomenon equipped with the appropriate tools for the derivation of data, and (3) the methods to assess the quality of derived data. A standardized interface enables communication between the module and other software components. The presented modular approach combines the functionality of common GIS with highly specialized modeling and analysis tools encapsulating expert knowledge about the represented phenomena.  相似文献