Quantifying anthropogenic influence on recent near-surface temperature change   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

M. R. Allen  N. P. Gillett  J. A. Kettleborough  G. Hegerl  R. Schnur  P. A. Stott  G. Boer  C. Covey  T. L. Delworth  G. S. Jones  J. F. B. Mitchell  T. P. Barnett 《Surveys in Geophysics》2006,27(5):491-544

We assess the extent to which observed large-scale changes in near-surface temperatures over the latter half of the twentieth century can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change as simulated by a range of climate models. The hypothesis that observed changes are entirely due to internal climate variability is rejected at a high confidence level independent of the climate model used to simulate either the anthropogenic signal or the internal variability. Where the relevant simulations are available, we also consider the alternative hypothesis that observed changes are due entirely to natural external influences, including solar variability and explosive volcanic activity. We allow for the possibility that feedback processes, other than those simulated by the models considered, may be amplifying the observed response to these natural influences by an unknown amount. Even allowing for this possibility, the hypothesis of no anthropogenic influence can be rejected at the 5% level in almost all cases. The influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases emerges as a substantial contributor to recent observed climate change, with the estimated trend attributable to greenhouse forcing similar in magnitude to the total observed warming over the 20th century. Much greater uncertainty remains in the response to other external influences on climate, particularly the response to anthropogenic sulphate aerosols and to solar and volcanic forcing. Our results remain dependent on model-simulated signal patterns and internal variability, and would benefit considerably from a wider range of simulations, particularly of the responses to natural external forcing.  相似文献   

Flow Over Hills with Variable Roughness     

Thomas Allen 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2006,121(3):475-490

The effect of variable roughness length upon the flow characteristics over hills is investigated. The changes considered herein cover a range of flow configurations such as the change from a forested (rough) valley with a moderately smooth hilltop to a grassy valley (smooth) with a “spiky” (rough) mountain top. The effect of moving the roughness with respect to the hill is also considered. Although many of the flow features change when the position of the roughness change is varied with respect to the hill these changes have very little impact upon the global properties used within orographic drag parametrization schemes.  相似文献   

Aqueous uptake of uranium onto pyrite surfaces; reactivity of fresh versus weathered material     

T.B. Scott  O. Riba Tort  G.C. Allen 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2007,71(21):5044-5053

In order to better understand the interaction between aqueous uranium and pyrite (FeS₂) the uptake of uranium onto the surfaces of both weathered and freshly generated pyrite surfaces was examined using batch sorption experiments. Analysis was performed using X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). The results clearly indicate that freshly polished pyrite surfaces are efficient scavengers of uranium from solution, while weathered surfaces exhibit only limited uptake. Results also indicate partial reduction of uranium at the pyrite surfaces, with a heterogeneous distribution of U(IV) and U(VI) species.  相似文献   

The Holocene estuarine sequence at Redwick, Welsh Severn Estuary Levels, UK: the character and role of silts     

J.R.L. Allen 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2007,118(2):157-174

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Flat rare earth element patterns as an indicator of cumulate processes in the Lesser Qinling carbonatites, China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Cheng Xu  Ian H. Campbell  Charlotte M. Allen  Zhilong Huang  Liang Qi  Huan Zhang  Guishan Zhang 《Lithos》2007,95(3-4):267-278

The Lesser Qinling carbonatite dykes are mainly composed of calcites. They are characterized by unusually high heavy rare earth element concentrations (HREE; e.g. Yb > 30 ppm) and flat to weakly light rare earth element (LREE) enriched chondrite-normalized patterns (La/Yb_n = 1.0–5.5), which is in marked contrast with all other published carbonatite data. The trace element contents of calcite crystals were measured in situ by laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICPMS). Some crystals show reduced LREE from core to rim, whereas their HREE compositions are relatively constant. The total REE contents and chondrite-normalized REE patterns from the cores of carbonate crystals are similar to those of the whole rock. The carbon and oxygen isotopic compositions of calcites fall within the range of primary, mantle-derived carbonatites. The initial Sr isotopic compositions (0.70480–0.70557) of calcites are consistent with an EM1 source or mixing between HIMU and EM1 mantle sources. However these sources cannot produce carbonatite parental magmas with a flat or slightly LREE enrichment pattern by low degrees of partial melting. Analyses of carbonates from other carbonatites show that carbonates have nearly flat REE pattern if they crystallize from a LREE enriched carbonatite melt. This implies that when carbonates crystallize from a carbonatite melt the calcite/melt partition coefficients (D) for HREE are much greater than the D for the LREE. The nearly flat REE patterns of the Lesser Qinling carbonatites can be explained if they are carbonate cumulates that contain little trapped carbonatite melt. Strong enrichment of HREE in the carbonatites may require their derivation by small degrees of melting from a garnet-poor source.  相似文献   

Petrologic, isotopic, and radiometric age constraints on the origin and tectonic history of the Malino Metamorphic Complex, NW Sulawesi, Indonesia     

Theo van Leeuwen  Charlotte M. Allen  Ade Kadarusman  Marlina Elburg  J. Michael Palin  Muhardjo  Suwijanto 《Journal of Asian Earth Sciences》2007,29(5-6):751-777

The Malino Metamorphic Complex (MMC) is located at the western end of the north arm of Sulawesi. It consists of mica schists and gneisses (derived from proximal turbidite and granitoid protoliths), with intercalations of greenschist, amphibolite, marble, and quartzite, forming an E-W elongated dome-like structure bounded on all sides by faults. The age of the MMC is constrained between Devonian and Early Carboniferous. This Paleozoic age, the presence of Archean and Proterozoic inherited zircons, and the isotopic signature of the mica schists and gneisses indicate that the terrane was derived from the New Guinea-Australian margin of Gondwana. Similarities with basement rocks in the Bird’s Head suggests a common origin. Greenschists forming a discontinuous selvage (metamorphic carapace) around the complex were derived from adjacent autochthonous Paleogene formations. The rocks of the MMC show a Barrovian-type progression from greenschist through epidote-amphibolite to amphibolite facies. P–T estimations suggest a depth of burial of up to 27–30 km. K/Ar and 40Ar/39Ar cooling ages of 23–11 Ma, and a 7 Ma age for unconformably overlying volcanic rocks, indicate that the complex was exhumed during the Miocene. Two tectonic scenarios are considered: 1. the continental fragment docked with Sulawesi during the Mesozoic and was exhumed as a metamorphic core complex during the Miocene; 2. it was subducted beneath the north arm during the late Oligocene and then rapidly returned back to the surface.  相似文献   

The ROSAT Brightest Cluster Sample — I. The compilation of the sample and the cluster log N–log S distribution     

H. Ebeling    A. C. Edge    H. Bo¨hringer    S. W. Allen    C. S. Crawford    A. C. Fabian    W. Voges  & J. P. Huchra 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,301(4):881-914

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Caledonian eclogite-facies metamorphism of Early Proterozoic protoliths from the North-East Greenland Eclogite Province     

Hannes K. Brueckner  Jane A. Gilotti  Allen P. Nutman 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1998,130(2):103-120

High-pressure metamorphic assemblages occur in mafic, ultramafic and a few intermediate rocks in a gneiss complex that covers an area of approximately 400 × 100 km in the North-East Greenland Caledonides. Detailed petrologic and geochronologic studies were carried out on three samples in order to clarify the P-T-t evolution of this eclogite province. Geothermobarometry yields temperature estimates of 700–800 °C and pressure estimates of at least 1.5 GPa from an eclogite sensu stricto and as high as 2.35 GPa for a garnet websterite. The eclogite defines a garnet-clinopyroxene-amphibole-whole rock Sm-Nd isochron age of 405 ± 24 Ma (MSWD 0.9). Isofacial garnet websterites define garnet-clinopyroxene-orthopyroxene-amphibole-whole rock-(biotite) ages of 439 ± 8 Ma (MSWD =2.1) for a coarse-grained sample and 370 ± 12 Ma (MSWD=0.6) for a finer-grained variety. Overgrowths on zircons from the fine-grained pyroxenite and the eclogite give a pooled ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U SHRIMP age of 377 ± 7 Ma (n=4). Significantly younger Rb-Sr biotite ages of 357 ± 8, 330 ± 6 and 326 ± 6 agree with young Rb-Sr, K-Ar and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar mineral ages from the gneiss complex and indicate slow cooling of the eclogitic rocks. High-pressure metamorphism may have been at least 439 Ma old (Siluro-Ordovician) with cooling through amphibolite-facies conditions in the Devonian and continued crustal thinning and exhumation well into the Carboniferous. Sm-Nd whole rock model ages indicate the eclogite protoliths are Early Proterozoic in age, while ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb SHRIMP ages of 1889 ± 18 and 1981 ± 8 from anhedral zircon cores probably reflect Proterozoic metasomatism. The samples have negative ɛ_Nd values (−5 to −16) and elevated ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.708–0.715), consistent with field evidence that the eclogite protoliths were an integral part of the continental crust long before Caledonian metamorphism. The presence of a large Caledonian eclogite terrane in Greenland requires modification of current tectonic models that postulate subduction of Baltica beneath Laurentia during the Caledonian orogeny. Received: 9 October 1996 / Accepted: 7 July 1997  相似文献   

Rhyolitic fallout and pyroclastic density current deposits from a phreatoplinian eruption in the eastern Aegean Sea, Greece     

S.R Allen  R.A.F Cas   《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》1998,86(1-4)

The Kos Plateau Tuff consists of pyroclastic deposits from a major Quaternary explosive rhyolitic eruption, centred about 10 km south of the island of Kos in the eastern Aegean, Greece. Five main units are present, the first two (units A and B) were the product of a phreatoplinian eruption. The eruption style then changed to `dry' explosive style as the eruption intensity increased forming a sequence of ignimbrites and initiating caldera collapse. The final waning phase returned to phreatomagmatic eruptive conditions (unit F). The phreatomagmatic units are fine grained, poorly sorted, and dominated by blocky vitric ash, thickly ash-coated lapilli and accretionary lapilli. They are non-welded and were probably deposited at temperatures below 100°C. All existing exposures occur at distances between 10 km and 40 km from the inferred source. Unit A is a widespread (>42 km from source), thin (upwind on Kos) to very thick (downwind), internally laminated, dominantly ash bed with mantling, sheet-like form. Upwind unit A and the lower and middle part of downwind unit A are ash-rich (ash-rich facies) whereas the upper part of downwind unit A includes thin beds of well sorted fine pumice lapilli (pumice-rich facies). Unit A is interpreted to be a phreatoplinian fall deposit. Although locally the bedforms were influenced by wind, surface water and topography. The nature and position of the pumice-rich facies suggests that the eruption style alternated between `wet' phreatoplinian and `dry' plinian during the final stages of unit A deposition.Unit B is exposed 10–19 km north of the inferred source on Kos, overlying unit A. It is a thick to very thick, internally stratified bed, dominated by ash-coated, medium and fine pumice lapilli in an ash matrix. Unit B shows a decrease in thickness and grain size and variations in bedforms downcurrent that allow definition of several different facies and laterally equivalent facies associations. Unit B ranges from being very thick, coarse and massive or wavy bedded in the closest outcrops to source, to being partly massive and partly diffusely stratified or cross-bedded in medial locations. Pinch and swell, clast-supported pumice layers are also present in medial locations. In the most distal sections, unit B is stratified or massive, and thinner and finer grained than elsewhere and dominated by thickly armoured lapilli. Unit B is interpreted to have been deposited from an unsteady, density stratified, pyroclastic density current which decelerated and progressively decreased its particle load with distance from source. Condensation of steam during outflow of the current promoted the early deposition of ash and resulted in the coarser pyroclasts being thickly ash-coated. The distribution, texture and stratigraphic position of unit B suggest that the pyroclastic density current was generated from collapse of the phreatoplinian column following a period of fluctuating discharge when the eruptive activity alternated between `wet' and `dry'. The pyroclastic density current was transitional in particle concentration between a dilute pyroclastic surge and a high particle concentration pyroclastic flow. Unidirectional bedforms in unit B suggest that the depositional boundary was commonly turbulent and in this respect did not resemble conventional pyroclastic flows. However, unit B is relatively thick and poorly sorted, and was deposited more than 19 km from source, implying that the current comprised a relatively high particle concentration and in this respect, did not resemble a typical pyroclastic surge.  相似文献   

Molecular hydrogen line emission from the reflection nebula Parsamyan 18     

Ryder  Allen  Burton  Ashley  & Storey 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,294(2):338-346

The newly commissioned University of New South Wales Infrared Fabry–Perot (UNSWIRF) has been used to image molecular hydrogen emission at 2.12 and 2.25 μm in the reflection nebula Parsamyan 18. P 18 is known to exhibit low values of the (1–0)/(2–1) S(1) ratio, suggestive of UV-pumped fluorescence rather than thermal excitation by shocks. Our line ratio mapping reveals the full extent of this fluorescent emission from extended arc-like features, as well as a more concentrated thermal component in regions closer to the central exciting star. We show that the emission morphology, line fluxes and gas density are consistent with the predictions of photodissociation region (PDR) theory. Those regions with the highest intrinsic 1–0 S(1) intensities also tend to show the highest (1–0)/(2–1) S(1) line ratios. Furthermore, variations in the line ratio can be attributed to intrinsic fluctuations in the incident radiation field and/or the gas density, through the self-shielding action of H₂. An isolated knot of emission discovered just outside P 18, and having both an unusually high (1–0)/(2–1) S(1) ratio and relative velocity, provides additional evidence for an outflow source associated with P 18.  相似文献