Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment     

Steven?J.?SmithEmail author  Allison?M.?Thomson  Norman?J.?Rosenberg  R.?Cesar?Izaurralde  Robert?A.?Brown  Tom?M.?L.?Wigley 《Climatic change》2005,69(1):7-25

As carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere and contribute to rising global temperatures, it is important to examine how derivative changes in climate may affect natural and managed ecosystems. In this series of papers, we study the impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources and natural ecosystems in the conterminous United States using twelve scenarios derived from General Circulation Model (GCM) projections to drive biophysical impact models. These scenarios are described in this paper. The scenarios are first put into the context of recent work on climate-change by the IPCC for the 21st century and span two levels of global-mean temperature change and three sets of spatial patterns of change derived from GCM results. In addition, the effect of either the presence or absence of a CO₂ fertilization effect on vegetation is examined by using two levels of atmospheric CO₂ concentration as a proxy variable. Results from three GCM experiments were used to produce different regional patterns of climate change. The three regional patterns for the conterminous United States range from: an increase in temperature above the global-mean level along with a significant decline in precipitation; temperature increases in line with the global-mean with an average increase in precipitation; and, with a sulfate aerosol effect added to in the same model, temperature increases that are lower than the global-mean. The resulting set of scenarios span a wide range of potential climate changes and allows examination of the relative importance of global-mean temperature change, regional climate patterns, aerosol cooling, and CO₂ fertilization effects.  相似文献   

The Environment of Gender and Science: Status and Perspectives of Women and Men in Physical Geography     

Sheryl Luzzadder‐Beach  Allison Macfarlane 《The Professional geographer》2000,52(3):407-424

In 1995 and 1996 we undertook surveys to identify the status, perspectives, and contributions of women and men in physical geography and geosciences/geology, and to study the evolution of our fields. This paper presents the results of the physical geography survey, and considers the following questions: How have academic men and women physical geographers' professional development experiences differed? Do men and women in physical geography emphasize different research areas? Do their research methods differ from one another? Gender differences were identified most strikingly in rank and tenure status, research topics and methodologies, and professional satisfaction. Generational differences by academic rank were identified in professional satisfaction and in pull factors. Minor gender differences were found in dual career couple status, but this status had major effects on career choices and opportunities for both men and women. This paper is part of our larger project aimed at comparing and contrasting geoscience/geology and physical geography, and at including the earth sciences in gender and science studies that have long focused on mathematics, chemistry, biology, and physics.  相似文献   

The role of rainfall temporal and spatial averaging in seasonal simulations of the terrestrial water balance     

Alexa A. Sampson  Daniel B. Wright  Ryan D. Stewart  Allison C. LoBue 《水文研究》2020,34(11):2531-2542

The partitioning of rainfall into surface runoff and infiltration influences many other aspects of the hydrologic cycle including evapotranspiration, deep drainage and soil moisture. This partitioning is an instantaneous non-linear process that is strongly dependent on rainfall rate, soil moisture and soil hydraulic properties. Though all rainfall datasets involve some degree of spatial or temporal averaging, it is not understood how this averaging affects simulated partitioning and the land surface water balance across a wide range of soil and climate types. We used a one-dimensional physics-based model of the near-surface unsaturated zone to compare the effects of different rainfall discretization (5-min point-scale; hourly point-scale; hourly 0.125° gridded) on the simulated partitioning of rainfall for many locations across the United States. Coarser temporal resolution rainfall data underpredicted seasonal surface runoff for all soil types except those with very high infiltration capacities (i.e., sand, loamy sand). Soils with intermediate infiltration capacities (i.e., loam, sandy loam) were the most affected, with less than half of the expected surface runoff produced in most soil types when the gridded rainfall dataset was used as input. The impact of averaging on the water balance was less extreme but non-negligible, with the hourly point-scale predictions exhibiting median evapotranspiration, drainage and soil moisture values within 10% of those predicted using the higher resolution 5-min rainfall. Water balance impacts were greater using the gridded hourly dataset, with average underpredictions of ET up to 27% in fine-grained soils. The results suggest that “hyperresolution” modelling at continental to global scales may produce inaccurate predictions if there is not parallel effort to produce higher resolution precipitation inputs or sub-grid precipitation parameterizations.  相似文献   

Quantifying and monetizing potential climate change policy impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and wildfires in the United States     

David Mills  Russell Jones  Karen Carney  Alexis St. Juliana  Richard Ready  Allison Crimmins  Jeremy Martinich  Kate Shouse  Benjamin DeAngelo  Erwan Monier 《Climatic change》2015,131(1):163-178

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Thinking globally and siting locally – renewable energy and biodiversity in a rapidly warming world     

Taber D. Allison  Terry L. Root  Peter C. Frumhoff 《Climatic change》2014,126(1-2):1-6

Increasing greenhouse gas emissions are projected to raise global average surface temperatures by 3?–4 °C within this century, dramatically increasing the extinction risk for terrestrial and freshwater species and severely disrupting ecosystems across the globe. Limiting the magnitude of warming and its devastating impacts on biodiversity will require deep emissions reductions that include the rapid, large-scale deployment of low-carbon renewable energy. Concerns about potential adverse impacts to species and ecosystems from the expansion of renewable energy development will play an important role in determining the pace and scale of emissions reductions and hence, the impact of climate change on global biodiversity. Efforts are underway to reduce uncertainty regarding wildlife impacts from renewable energy development, but such uncertainty cannot be eliminated. We argue the need to accept some and perhaps substantial risk of impacts to wildlife from renewable energy development in order to limit the far greater risks to biodiversity loss owing to climate change. We propose a path forward for better reconciling expedited renewable energy development with wildlife conservation in a warming world.  相似文献   

The representative concentration pathways: an overview   总被引：20，自引：4，他引：16  

Detlef P. van Vuuren  Jae Edmonds  Mikiko Kainuma  Keywan Riahi  Allison Thomson  Kathy Hibbard  George C. Hurtt  Tom Kram  Volker Krey  Jean-Francois Lamarque  Toshihiko Masui  Malte Meinshausen  Nebojsa Nakicenovic  Steven J. Smith  Steven K. Rose 《Climatic change》2011,109(1-2):5-31

This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m². The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and emission inventory experts. The resulting product forms a comprehensive data set with high spatial and sectoral resolutions for the period extending to 2100. Land use and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are reported mostly at a 0.5?×?0.5 degree spatial resolution, with air pollutants also provided per sector (for well-mixed gases, a coarser resolution is used). The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario trends. For most variables, the RCPs cover a wide range of the existing literature. The RCPs are supplemented with extensions (Extended Concentration Pathways, ECPs), which allow climate modeling experiments through the year 2300. The RCPs are an important development in climate research and provide a potential foundation for further research and assessment, including emissions mitigation and impact analysis.  相似文献   

Impacts of Invasive <Emphasis Type="Italic">Phragmites australis</Emphasis> on Diamondback Terrapin Nesting in Chesapeake Bay     

Cassandra E. Cook  Allison M. McCluskey  Randolph M. Chambers 《Estuaries and Coasts》2018,41(4):966-973

The range expansion of exotic plant species, including the invasive reed Phragmites australis, causes widespread structural and functional changes to coastal ecosystems along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of North America. Native estuarine species, such as the diamondback terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin), are at risk of adverse effects from rapid habitat changes due to exotic invasions. Diamondback terrapins currently face population threats including by-catch mortality in crab pots, predation, and habitat loss, and populations may continue to suffer if deleterious plant invasions into preferred nesting habitats are left unchecked. We examined the extent to which Phragmites affects nesting of a breeding population of diamondback terrapins at Fisherman Island National Wildlife Refuge on the eastern shore of Virginia, where Phragmites has recently expanded into known areas of terrapin nesting. With data collected from the 2015 nesting season, we quantified the extent to which Phragmites shading could impact nest incubation temperature and determined how Phragmites density impacts the risk of rhizome invasion into nests. We conclude that Phragmites cover greater than 50% would decrease incubation temperatures of terrapin nests sufficiently to produce predominantly male hatchlings. Phragmites cover had no observed effect on root growth into simulated nests, but cover by other dune plant species explained observed trends in root growth. These results suggest that terrapins may be negatively impacted by Phragmites expansion into open nesting sites. Breeding site fidelity exhibited by terrapins and other estuarine species could limit the ability of their populations to adjust to rapid coastal expansion of invasive plant species.  相似文献   

Morphodynamic evolution of a lower Mississippi River channel bar after sand mining          下载免费PDF全文

Brendan T. Yuill  Ahmed Gaweesh  Mead A. Allison  Ehab A. Meselhe 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2016,41(4):526-542

In‐channel sand mining by dredge removes large quantities of bed sediment and alters channel morphodynamic processes. While the reach‐scale impacts of dredging are well documented, the effects of the dredged borrow pit on the local flow and sediment transport are poorly understood. These local effects are important because they control the post‐dredge evolution of the borrow pit, setting the pit lifespan and affecting reach‐scale channel morphology. This study documents the observed morphological evolution of a large (1·46 million m³) borrow pit mined on a lateral sandbar in the lower Mississippi River using a time‐series of multibeam bathymetric surveys. During the 2·5 year time‐series, 53% of the initial pit volume infilled with sediment, decreasing pit depth by an average of 0·88 m yr^?1. To explore the controls of the observed infilling, a morphodynamic model (Delft3D) was used to simulate flow and sediment transport within the affected river reach. The model indicated that infilling rates were primarily related to the riverine sediment supply and pit geometry. The pit depth and length influenced the predicted magnitude of the pit bed shear stress relative to its pre‐dredged value, i.e. the bed‐stress reduction ratio (R*), a metric that was correlated with the magnitude and spatial distribution of infilling. A one‐dimensional reduced‐complexity model was derived using predicted sediment supply and R* to simulate patterns of pit infilling. This simplified model of borrow‐pit evolution was able to closely approximate the amount and patterns of sediment deposition during the study period. Additional model experiments indicate that, for a borrow pit of a set volume, creating deep, longitudinally‐shorter borrow pits significantly increased infilling rates relative to elongated pits. Study results provide insight into the resilience of alluvial river channels after a disturbance and the sustainability of sand mining as a sediment source for coastal restoration. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Facilitating adaptation of biodiversity to climate change: a conceptual framework applied to the world’s largest Mediterranean-climate woodland     

Suzanne M. Prober  Kevin R. Thiele  Philip W. Rundel  Colin J. Yates  Sandra L. Berry  Margaret Byrne  Les Christidis  Carl R. Gosper  Pauline F. Grierson  Kristina Lemson  Tom Lyons  Craig Macfarlane  Michael H. O’Connor  John K. Scott  Rachel J. Standish  William D. Stock  Eddie J. B. van Etten  Grant W. Wardell-Johnson  Alexander Watson 《Climatic change》2012,110(1-2):227-248

The importance of ecological management for reducing the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change is increasingly recognized, yet frameworks to facilitate a structured approach to climate adaptation management are lacking. We developed a conceptual framework that can guide identification of climate change impacts and adaptive management options in a given region or biome. The framework focuses on potential points of early climate change impact, and organizes these along two main axes. First, it recognizes that climate change can act at a range of ecological scales. Secondly, it emphasizes that outcomes are dependent on two potentially interacting and countervailing forces: (1) changes to environmental parameters and ecological processes brought about by climate change, and (2) responses of component systems as determined by attributes of resistance and resilience. Through this structure, the framework draws together a broad range of ecological concepts, with a novel emphasis on attributes of resistance and resilience that can temper the response of species, ecosystems and landscapes to climate change. We applied the framework to the world’s largest remaining Mediterranean-climate woodland, the ‘Great Western Woodlands’ of south-western Australia. In this relatively intact region, maintaining inherent resistance and resilience by preventing anthropogenic degradation is of highest priority and lowest risk. Limited, higher risk options such as fire management, protection of refugia and translocation of adaptive genes may be justifiable under more extreme change, hence our capacity to predict the extent of change strongly impinges on such management decisions. These conclusions may contrast with similar analyses in degraded landscapes, where natural integrity is already compromised, and existing investment in restoration may facilitate experimentation with higher risk?options.  相似文献   

Regional-Scale Differences in Eutrophication Effects on Eelgrass-Associated (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Zostera marina</Emphasis>) Macrofauna     

Allison L. Schmidt  Marta Coll  Heike K. Lotze 《Estuaries and Coasts》2017,40(4):1096-1112

Eutrophication has caused strong shifts from perennial seagrass to opportunistic macroalgae and phytoplankton in many coastal ecosystems worldwide, yet responses of the primary-producer assemblage can vary with regional environmental and nutrient-loading conditions. The wider consequences of this variable primary-producer response on the associated animal community are little known. We used large-scale field surveys across 12 study sites with low or high eutrophication levels in two geographic provinces in Atlantic Canada to examine region-specific responses of macrofauna associated with eelgrass beds. In both regions, abundances of all groups increased with eutrophication, but species richness of mobile fishes and invertebrates decreased. Generally, filter feeders, epibenthic detritivores and some herbivores increased, while more hypoxia sensitive species declined. Small fishes and invertebrate predators increased with eutrophication mirrored by decreases in their prey. Despite similar general trends, our results show distinct shifts in species composition in each geographic region associated with differences in food availability and predation refuge offered by phytoplankton and opportunistic epiphytic or benthic macroalgae as well as tolerance to an increasingly hostile physico-chemical environment. So far, the continued persistence of eelgrass beds at our “highly” eutrophied sites indicates intermediate eutrophication levels with short-term benefits for some species. However, the loss of sensitive species and decrease in species richness highlight that eutrophication has already changed seagrass ecosystems in Atlantic Canada. Our work suggests that mitigating these changes will require regional-scale management.  相似文献