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41.
A. S.?Ameer M. L.?SharmaEmail author H. R.?Wason S. A.?Alsinawi 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2005,162(5):951-966
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been carried out for Iraq. The earthquake catalogue used in the present study covers an area between latitude 29°–38.5° N and longitude 39°–50° E containing more than a thousand events for the period 1905–2000. The entire Iraq region has been divided into thirteen seismogenic sources based on their seismic characteristics, geological setting and tectonic framework. The completeness of the seismicity catalogue has been checked using the method proposed by Stepp (1972). The analysis of completeness shows that the earthquake catalogue is not complete below Ms=4.8 for all of Iraq and seismic source zones S1, S4, S5, and S8, while it varies for the other seismic zones. A statistical treatment of completeness of the data file was carried out in each of the magnitude classes. The Frequency Magnitude Distributions (FMD) for the study area including all seismic source zones were established and the minimum magnitude of complete reporting (Mc) were then estimated. For the entire Iraq the Mc was estimated to be about Ms=4.0 while S11 shows the lowest Mc to be about Ms=3.5 and the highest Mc of about Ms=4.2 was observed for S4. The earthquake activity parameters (activity rate , b value, maximum regional magnitude mmax) as well as the mean return period (R) with a certain lower magnitude mmin m along with their probability of occurrence have been determined for all thirteen seismic source zones of Iraq. The maximum regional magnitude mmax was estimated as 7.87 ± 0.86 for entire Iraq. The return period for magnitude 6.0 is largest for source zone S3 which is estimated to be 705 years while the smallest value is estimated as 9.9 years for all of Iraq.The large variation of the b parameter and the hazard level from zone to zone reflects crustal heterogeneity and the high seismotectonic complexity. The seismic hazard near the source boundaries is directly and strongly affected by the change in the delineation of these boundaries. The forces, through which the geological structure along the plate boundary in Eastern and Northeastern Iraq are evolved, are still active causing stress-strain accumulation, deformation and in turn producing higher probabilities of earthquake activity. Thus, relatively large destructive earthquakes are expected in this region. The study is intended to serve as a reference for more advanced approaches and to pave the path for the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard in this region. 相似文献
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Ameer A. Jebur William Atherton Rafid M. Al Khaddar Ed Loffill 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2018,36(5):2893-2906
This investigation aimed to examine the load carrying capacity of model piles embedded in sandy soil and to develop a predictive model to simulate pile settlement using a new artificial neural network (ANN) approach. A series of experimental pile load tests were carried out on model concrete piles, comprised of three piles with slenderness ratios of 12, 17 and 25. This was to provide an initial dataset to establish the ANN model, in attempt at making current, in situ pile-load test methods unnecessary. Evolutionary Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) MATLAB algorithms, enhanced by T-tests and F-tests, were developed and applied in this process. The model piles were embedded in a calibration chamber in three densities of sand; loose, medium and dense. According to the statistical analysis and the relative importance study, pile lengths, applied load, pile flexural rigidity, pile aspects ratio, and sand-pile friction angle were found to play a key role in pile settlement at different contribution levels, following the order: P?>?δ?>?lc/d?>?lc?>?EA. The results revealed that the optimum model of the LM training algorithm can be used to characterize pile settlement with good degree of accuracy. There was also close agreement between the experimental and predicted data with a root mean square error, (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (R) of 0.0025192 and 0.988, respectively. 相似文献
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Azam Mahanipour Jörg MutterloseAnoshiravan L. Kani Mohammad Hosein Adabi 《Cretaceous Research》2011,32(3):331-356
Upper Barremian-Lower Aptian sediments of the Sarcheshmeh and Sanganeh formations in the Kopet Dagh area, northeast Iran were studied with regard to their calcareous nannofossil content and their δ13Ccarb signal. The sediments are composed mainly of marlstones, argillaceous limestones and limestones. Based on the occurrence of biostratigraphic index taxa, the calcareous nannofossil zones NC5, NC6 and the NC7A Subzone were recognised. The calcareous nannofossils and the δ13Ccarb data enable recognition of the early Aptian Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a (OAE 1a). The deposits of the OAE 1a interval are characterised by the rarity of nannoconids and a sharp negative δ13Ccarb excursion (1.36‰), followed by an abrupt positive δ13Ccarb excursion of 4-5‰; both events have been recognised elsewhere in OAE 1a deposits in the Tethys. In the OAE 1a interval, the relative abundance of Watznaueria barnesiae/Watznaueria fossacincta is higher (more than 40%) than that of Biscutum spp., Discorhabdus spp. and Zeugrhabdotus spp., which indicates dissolution. In the upper part of the section, the higher relative abundance of mesotrophic and oligotrophic taxa (Watznaueria spp. and nannoconids respectively) and the enhanced relative abundance of eutrophic taxa (Biscutum spp., Discorhabdus spp., Zeugrhabdotus spp.) is indicative of an environment with slightly increased nutrient content. The presence of warm water taxa (Rhagodiscus asper and nannoconids) and the absence of cool water taxa (Repagulum and Crucibiscutum) suggest warm surface-water conditions. 相似文献
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Shahid Azam 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2012,30(1):107-118
Knowledge of slurry settling is essential for geotechnical engineering applications such as coastal land reclamation and mine
waste disposal. In the presence of charged solids and ion-rich liquids, complex physicochemical interactions govern the behavior
of slurries. The main objective of this study was to develop a fundamental understanding of self-weight settling of laterite
ore slurries. To capture the influence of geology and the environment, samples were obtained from mining operations in different
parts of the globe. Based on laboratory testing, the investigated ores were found to be either oxide-rich with goethite, gibbsite,
meghamite and hematite making at least 90% of the material or clay-rich with chrysotile, cholritic intergrade, and siliceous
minerals accounting for more than 50% of the sample. The dominance of salt forming ions such as Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, Cl−, NO3
−, HCO3
− and SO4
2− in the pore waters indicated the influence of seawater on the waters used for slurry preparation. The oxide-rich ores in
low ionic waters resulted in flocculated fabrics whereas the clay-rich ores in high ionic waters led to cardhouse microstructures.
The aggregated fabrics with low tortuousity and fewer dead ends resulted in a high settling rate and amount (k
i
= 10−1 to 10−2 cm/s and SP = 62 to 49%) whereas the cardhouse morphologies with high tortuousity and lower pore connectivity exhibited a
slow and low settling (k
i
= 10−3 to 10−4 cm/s and SP = 37 to 17%). The initial hydraulic conductivity was found to be directly proportional to settling potential. 相似文献
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Tanveer Abbas Ghulam Nabi Muhammad W. Boot Fiaz Hussain Muhammad I. Azam HuiJun Jin Muhammad Faisal 《寒旱区科学》2016,8(4):297-310
The Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) was implemented in a small forested watershed of the Soan River Basin in northern Pakistan through application of the sequential uncertainty fitting(SUFI-2) method to investigate the associated uncertainty in runoff and sediment load estimation. The model was calibrated for a 10-year period(1991–2000) with an initial 4-year warm-up period(1987–1990), and was validated for the subsequent 10-year period(2001–2010). The model evaluation indices R~2(the coefficient of determination), NS(the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency), and PBIAS(percent bias) for stream flows simulation indicated that there was a good agreement between the measured and simulated flows. To assess the uncertainty in the model outputs, p-factor(a 95% prediction uncertainty, 95PPU) and r-factors(average wideness width of the 95 PPU band divided by the standard deviation of the observed values) were taken into account. The 95 PPU band bracketed 72% of the observed data during the calibration and 67% during the validation. The r-factor was 0.81 during the calibration and 0.68 during the validation. For monthly sediment yield, the model evaluation coefficients(R~2 and NS) for the calibration were computed as 0.81 and 0.79, respectively; for validation, they were 0.78 and 0.74, respectively. Meanwhile, the 95 PPU covered more than 60% of the observed sediment data during calibration and validation. Moreover, improved model prediction and parameter estimation were observed with the increased number of iterations. However, the model performance became worse after the fourth iterations due to an unreasonable parameter estimation. Overall results indicated the applicability of the SWAT model with moderate levels of uncertainty during the calibration and high levels during the validation. Thus, this calibrated SWAT model can be used for assessment of water balance components, climate change studies, and land use management practices. 相似文献
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Muhammad Dawood Atta-ur Rahman Sami Ullah Ghani Rahman Kamran Azam 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(16):471
The present study explores the spatial and temporal deviations in temperature using Monte Carlo (MC) and Sen’s slope (SS) approaches in the Hindu Kush (HK) region. Climate change holds sturdy association against the temperature trend that has generated adverse impacts in the form of floods. In this attempt, for trend analysis, temperature has been selected as a meteorological parameter. This study mainly focuses on exploring the tendency in average temperature with respect to time and the consequential flood recurrences in the region. For the current study, data regarding temperature were typically collected from Pakistan Meteorological Department. In the study region, there are a total of seven meteorological station falls namely Dir, Chitral, Drosh, Saidu, Malam Jabba, Kalam, and Timergara. The temperature time series data was calculated and analyzed using MC and SS approaches for trend detection in order to demonstrate the kind of fluctuation in the Hindu Kush region. The resultant analysis further revealed that in the meteorological station of Dir, a more significant positive trend (α?=?0.0001) was found in mean monthly maximum, minimum, and monthly normal temperature. Likewise, at Drosh, a positive trend is detected in mean monthly maximum (α?=?0.04), monthly minimum (α?=?0.003), and monthly average (α?=?0.0005). Moreover, at Saidu met station, there is also a trend detected in temperature sub-variables such as monthly maximum (α?=?0.0001) and monthly minimum (α?=?0.001). In addition to these, at Kalam, there is a temperature trend noted for monthly minimum (α?=?0.01) and monthly average (α?=?0.02). Furthermore, the analysis demonstrates that there is no trend detected in the remaining stations, i.e., Chitral, Malam Jabba, Drosh, and Timergara. The overall analysis discovered that there is a sturdy relationship between climate change phenomenon and temperature variability. After using SS test to the temperature data of mean monthly maximum (TMMMax), the results explored that Kalam station grips the highest magnitude, i.e., Q?=?0.76; however, Timergara shows the lowermost, i.e., Q?=???0.34. For the monthly minimum temperature (TMMMin), at Kalam again, the highest value (Q?=?0.005) was detected; however, other stations revealed a negative trend, except Drosh which express no change in terms of magnitude. Similarly, in terms of monthly normal temperature (TMNor), Timergara station (Q?=???0.4) verified a negative trend magnitude and Malam Jabba station again trendless. Among all, the met station of Malam Jabba which holds an altitude of 2591 m is a hilly station just followed by Kalam having 2103 m height; however, Dir holds 1375 m height and the rest of the met stations show low elevation. The main reason for the temperature difference is the altitude of the study region. 相似文献
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Natural Hazards - Urban resilience to natural disasters has constantly been a challenge to sustainable development in human societies. Since Iran is always exposed to natural disasters such as... 相似文献