Dry season precipitation over the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor is more sensitive to deforestation than to greenhouse gas driven climate change   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Deepak K. Ray 《Climatic change》2013,119(3-4):775-783

To prevent the loss of biodiversity in northern Central America, which is one of 34 global biodiversity hotspots, the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor, a network of protected parks and reserves has been proposed. While on-going deforestation to croplands and pastures outside the protected regions is likely to effect the dry season precipitation over the regenerated and extant forests in the proposed protected regions, global climate change driven precipitation changes may also be a significant factor, at least at some locations. This study compares the effects of land cover change to the effects of elevated greenhouse gas concentrations on precipitation in the proposed areas of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor network. Using 5 consecutive dry season simulations of the effects of land cover change that included dry, wet and normal years, and using statistically downscaled global climate model (GCM) precipitation from the fourth assessment report (AR4), a larger expanse of the proposed protected regions was found more sensitive to precipitation decreases due to land cover changes. Two specific protected regions however stand out: the Maya Highlands and some areas of the Maya lowlands that were more sensitive to global climate change driven precipitation decreases. In these protected regions it is likely that irrespective of local policies the climate change signal would dominate.  相似文献   

Appropriate viscous damping for nonlinear time‐history analysis of base‐isolated reinforced concrete buildings     

Deepak R. Pant  Anil C. Wijeyewickrema  Mohamed A. ElGawady 《地震工程与结构动力学》2013,42(15):2321-2339

There is no consensus at the present time regarding an appropriate approach to model viscous damping in nonlinear time‐history analysis of base‐isolated buildings because of uncertainties associated with quantification of energy dissipation. Therefore, in this study, the effects of modeling viscous damping on the response of base‐isolated reinforced concrete buildings subjected to earthquake ground motions are investigated. The test results of a reduced‐scale three‐story building previously tested on a shaking table are compared with three‐dimensional finite element simulation results. The study is primarily focused on nonlinear direct‐integration time‐history analysis, where many different approaches of modeling viscous damping, developed within the framework of Rayleigh damping are considered. Nonlinear direct‐integration time‐history analysis results reveal that the damping ratio as well as the approach used to model damping has significant effects on the response, and quite importantly, a damping ratio of 1% is more appropriate in simulating the response than a damping ratio of 5%. It is shown that stiffness‐proportional damping, where the coefficient multiplying the stiffness matrix is calculated from the frequency of the base‐isolated building with the post‐elastic stiffness of the isolation system, provides reasonable estimates of the peak response indicators, in addition to being able to capture the frequency content of the response very well. Furthermore, nonlinear modal time‐history analyses using constant as well as frequency‐dependent modal damping are also performed for comparison purposes. It was found that for nonlinear modal time‐history analysis, frequency‐dependent damping, where zero damping is assigned to the frequencies below the fundamental frequency of the superstructure for a fixed‐base condition and 5% damping is assigned to all other frequencies, is more appropriate, than 5% constant damping. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Peat depth as a control on moss water availability under evaporative stress          下载免费PDF全文

Simon J. Dixon  Nicholas Kettridge  Paul A. Moore  Kevin J. Devito  Amey S. Tilak  Richard M. Petrone  Carl A. Mendoza  James M. Waddington 《水文研究》2017,31(23):4107-4121

Northern peatlands are a vital component of the global carbon cycle, containing large stores of soil organic carbon and acting as a long‐term carbon sink. Moss productivity is an important factor in determining whether these wetlands will retain this function under future climatic conditions. Research on unsaturated water flow in peatlands, which controls moss productivity during periods of evaporative stress, has focused on relatively deep bog systems. However, shallower peatlands and marginal connective wetlands can be essential components of many landscape mosaics. In order to better understand factors influencing moss productivity, water balance simulations using HYDRUS‐1D were run for different soil profile depths, compositions, and antecedent moisture conditions. Our results demonstrate a bimodal distribution of peatland realizations, either primarily conserving water by limiting evapotranspiration or maximizing moss productivity. For sustained periods of evaporative stress, both deep water storage and a shallow initial water table delay the onset of high vegetative stress, thus maximizing moss productivity. A total depth of sand and peat of 0.8 m is identified as the threshold above which increasing peat depth has no effect on changing vegetative stress response. In contrast, wetlands with shallow peat deposits (less than 0.5 m thick) are least able to buffer prolonged periods of evaporation due to limited labile water storage and will thus quickly experience vegetative stress and so limit evaporation and conserve water. With a predicted increase in the frequency and size of rain events in continental North America, the moss productivity of shallow wetland systems may increase, but also greater moisture availability will increase the likelihood they remain as wetlands in a changing climate.  相似文献   

Assessing anthropogenic pressure and its impact on Hippophae salicifolia pockets in Central Himalaya, Uttarakhand     

Deepak DHYANI  Shalini DHYANI  RK MAIKHURI 《山地科学学报》2013,10(3):464-471

Natural habitat of Hippophae salicifolia in Central Himalaya is continuously being degraded due to habitat destruction and harvesting.Although logging is prohibited,habitat destruction has increased because of regular road construction,repairing and broadening activities.In addition,Hippophae resources are continuously being harvested by lopping(both partial and complete) for fuelwood,fodder and fruits in higher Himalayan region.This paper presents a detailed analysis of relationship between density,demographic structure,and harvesting of H.salicifolia growing pockets in the five major valleys(Gangotri,Yamunotri,Niti,Mana and Bhyundhar) of Uttarakhand in Central Himalaya,India.A total of 120 quadrats were laid randomly to study population structure,regeneration,sex ratio and lopping using quadrats of 100 m 2(24 in each valley) in Hippophae growing patches.Our study shows that the density,size distribution,and regeneration of Hippophae vary considerably among the major valleys.Trees in the Yamunotri valley have the highest density of large trees but the lowest density of seedlings.In contrast,there are few large trees but many seedlings in the Mana valley.The number and size of lopped trees also varied among the valleys.Lopping was greatest in Bhyundhar(11.4%) and Yamunotri(19.7%) and least in Niti(3.9%).The size of lopped trees differed substantially as well.In Bhyundhar,the largest trees were taken while saplings were taken in Yamunotri.Our study revealed that unsustainable harvesting from plants for fuel,fencing and fruits along with road broadening activities in Central Himalaya are the main cause of habitat destruction.Our research highlights the urgent need for in-situ and ex-situ conservation of Hippophae salicifolia so that it’s potential can be harnessed sustainably by rural hill societies for their socio-economic development.  相似文献   

Structural performance of a base-isolated reinforced concrete building subjected to seismic pounding     

Deepak R. Pant  Anil C. Wijeyewickrema 《地震工程与结构动力学》2012,41(12):1709-1716

The effects of seismic pounding on the structural performance of a base-isolated reinforced concrete (RC) building are investigated, with a view to evaluate the influence of adjacent structures and separation between structures on the pounding response. In particular, seismic pounding of a typical four-story base-isolated RC building with retaining walls at the base and with a four-story fixed-base RC building is studied. Three-dimensional finite element analyses are carried out considering material and geometric nonlinearities. The structural performance of the base-isolated building is evaluated considering various earthquake excitations. It is found that the performance of the base-isolated building is substantially influenced by the pounding. The investigated base-isolated building shows good resistance against shear failure and the predominant mode of failure due to pounding is flexural. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Trends in reference evapotranspiration in the humid region of northeast India   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Deepak Jhajharia  Yagob Dinpashoh  Ercan Kahya  Vijay P. Singh  Ahmad Fakheri‐Fard 《水文研究》2012,26(3):421-435

In the present study, the trends in the reference evapotranspiration (ET_O) estimated through the Penman‐Monteith method were investigated over the humid region of northeast (NE) India by using the Mann‐Kendall (MK) test after removing the effect of significant lag‐1 serial correlation from the time series of ET_O by pre‐whitening. During the last 22 years, ET_O has been found to decrease significantly at annual and seasonal time scales for 6 sites in NE India and NE India as a whole. The seasonal decreases in ET_O have, however, been more significant in the pre‐monsoon season, indicating the presence of an element of a seasonal cycle. The decreases in ET_O are mainly attributed to the net radiation and wind speed, which are also corroborated by the observed trends in these two parameters at almost all the times scales over most of the sites in NE India. The steady decrease in wind speed and decline in net radiation not only balanced the impact of the temperature increases on ET_O, but may have actually caused the decreases in ET_O over the humid region of northeast India. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Assessment of Slope Stability for Deep Pits in Sedimentary Strata     

Brett A. Poulsen  Deepak P. Adhikary  Rao Balusu 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2017,35(2):631-643

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Sources of uncertainty in estimating stream solute export from headwater catchments at three sites          下载免费PDF全文

Ruth D. Yanai  Naoko Tokuchi  John L. Campbell  Mark B. Green  Eiji Matsuzaki  Stephanie N. Laseter  Cindi L. Brown  Amey S. Bailey  Pilar Lyons  Carrie R. Levine  Donald C. Buso  Gene E. Likens  Jennifer D. Knoepp  Keitaro Fukushima 《水文研究》2015,29(7):1793-1805

Uncertainty in the estimation of hydrologic export of solutes has never been fully evaluated at the scale of a small‐watershed ecosystem. We used data from the Gomadansan Experimental Forest, Japan, Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, USA, and Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, USA, to evaluate many sources of uncertainty, including the precision and accuracy of measurements, selection of models, and spatial and temporal variation. Uncertainty in the analysis of stream chemistry samples was generally small but could be large in relative terms for solutes near detection limits, as is common for ammonium and phosphate in forested catchments. Instantaneous flow deviated from the theoretical curve relating height to discharge by up to 10% at Hubbard Brook, but the resulting corrections to the theoretical curve generally amounted to <0.5% of annual flows. Calibrations were limited to low flows; uncertainties at high flows were not evaluated because of the difficulties in performing calibrations during events. However, high flows likely contribute more uncertainty to annual flows because of the greater volume of water that is exported during these events. Uncertainty in catchment area was as much as 5%, based on a comparison of digital elevation maps with ground surveys. Three different interpolation methods are used at the three sites to combine periodic chemistry samples with streamflow to calculate fluxes. The three methods differed by <5% in annual export calculations for calcium, but up to 12% for nitrate exports, when applied to a stream at Hubbard Brook for 1997–2008; nitrate has higher weekly variation at this site. Natural variation was larger than most other sources of uncertainty. Specifically, coefficients of variation across streams or across years, within site, for runoff and weighted annual concentrations of calcium, magnesium, potassium, sodium, sulphate, chloride, and silicate ranged from 5 to 50% and were even higher for nitrate. Uncertainty analysis can be used to guide efforts to improve confidence in estimated stream fluxes and also to optimize design of monitoring programmes. © 2014 The Authors. Hydrological Processes published John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Future changes in rainfall,temperature and reference evapotranspiration in the central India by least square support vector machine     

Sananda Kundu  Deepak Khare  Arun Mondal 《地学前缘(英文版)》2017,8(3):583-596

Climate change affects the environment and natural resources immensely. Rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration are major parameters of climate affecting changes in the environment. Evapotranspiration plays a key role in crop production and water balance of a region, one of the major parameters affected by climate change. The reference evapotranspiration or ET₀ is a calculated parameter used in this research. In the present study, changes in the future rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature, and ET₀ have been shown by downscaling the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) model data. The selected study area is located in a part of the Narmada river basin area in Madhya Pradesh in central India. The downscaled outputs of projected rainfall, ET₀ and temperatures have been shown for the 21st century with the HADCM3 data of A2 scenario by the Least Square Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) model. The efficiency of the LS-SVM model was measured by different statistical methods. The selected predictors show considerable correlation with the rainfall and temperature and the application of this model has been done in a basin area which is an agriculture based region and is sensitive to the change of rainfall and temperature. Results showed an increase in the future rainfall, temperatures and ET₀. The temperature increase is projected in the high rise of minimum temperature in winter time and the highest increase in maximum temperature is projected in the pre-monsoon season or from March to May. Highest increase is projected in the 2080s in 2081–2091 and 2091–2099 in maximum temperature and 2091–2099 in minimum temperature in all the stations. Winter maximum temperature has been observed to have increased in the future. High rainfall is also observed with higher ET₀ in some decades. Two peaks of the increase are observed in ET₀ in the April–May and in the October. Variation in these parameters due to climate change might have an impact on the future water resource of the study area, which is mainly an agricultural based region, and will help in proper planning and management.  相似文献   

Analyzing and modeling of a large river basin dynamics applying integrated cellular automata and Markov model     

Brij Kishor Pandey  Deepak Khare 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(22):779

Historical and exact information about the land use/land cover change is very important for regional sustainable development. The aim of this paper is to determine the rapid changes in land use/land cover (LULC) pattern due to agriculture expansion, environmental calamities such as flood and government policies over Upper Narmada basin, India. Multi-temporal Landsat satellite images for years 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2015 were used to analyze and monitor the changes in LULC with an overall accuracy of more than 85%. Results revealed a potential decrease in natural vegetation (? 9.52%) due to the expansion of settlement (+ 0.52%) and cropland (+ 9.43%) from 1990 to 2015. In the present study, Cellular Automata and Markov (CA–Markov), an integrated tool was used to project the short-term LULC map of year 2030. The projected LULC (2030) indicated the expansion of built-up area along with the cropland and degradation in the vegetation area. The outcomes from the study can help as a guiding tool for protection of natural vegetation and the management of the built-up area. Additionally, it will help in devising the strategies to utilize every bit of land in the study area for decision makers.  相似文献