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31.
T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar J. Sanjay B. K. Basu A. K. Mitra D. V. Bhaskar Rao O. P. Sharma P. K. Pal T. N. Krishnamurti 《Natural Hazards》2007,41(3):471-485
This study entails the implementation of an experimental real time forecast capability for tropical cyclones over the Bay
of Bengal basin of North Indian Ocean. This work is being built on the experience gained from a number of recent studies using
the concept of superensemble developed at the Florida State University (FSU). Real time hurricane forecasts are one of the
major components of superensemble modeling at FSU. The superensemble approach of training followed by real time forecasts
produces the best forecasts for tracks and intensity (up to 5 days) of Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific typhoons. Improvements
in track forecasts of about 25–35% compared to current operational forecast models has been noted over the Atlantic Ocean
basin. The intensity forecasts for hurricanes are only marginally better than the best models. In this paper, we address tropical
cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal for the years 1996–2000. The main result from this study is that the position and
intensity errors for tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal from the multimodel superensemble are generally less
than those of all of the participating models during 1- to 3-day forecasts. Some of the major tropical cyclones, such as the
November 1996 Andhra Pradesh cyclone and October 1999 Orissa super cyclone were well handled by this superensemble approach.
A conclusion from this study is that the proposed approach may be a viable way to construct improved forecasts of Bay of Bengal
tropical cyclone positions and intensity. 相似文献
32.
33.
J. Venkata Ratnam D. R. Sikka Akshara Kaginalkar Amit Kesarkar N. Jyothi Sudipta Banerjee 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(8-9):1641-1665
As a part of the Experimental Extended Range Monsoon Prediction Experiment, ensemble mode seasonal runs for the monsoon season
of 2005 were made using the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), T170L42 AGCM. The seasonal runs were made
using six initial atmospheric conditions based on the NCEP operational analysis and with forecast monthly sea-surface temperature
(SST) of the NCEP Coupled forecast system (CFS). These simulations were carried out on the PARAM Padma supercomputer of Centre
for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC), India. The model climatology was prepared by integrating the model for ten
years using climatological SST as the lower boundary. The climatology of the model compares well with the observed, in terms
of the spatial distribution of rainfall over the Indian land mass. The model-simulated rainfall compares well with the Tropical
Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates for the 2005 monsoon season. Compared to the model climatology (7.81 mm/day),
the model had simulated a normal rainfall (7.75 mm/day) for the year 2005 which is in agreement with the observations (99%
of long-term mean). However, the model could not capture the observed increase in September rainfall from that of a low value
in August 2005. The circulation patterns simulated by the model are also comparable to the observed patterns. The ensemble
mean onset is found to be nearer to the observed onset date within one pentad. 相似文献
34.
A wavelet‐based random vibration theory has been developed for the non‐stationary seismic response of liquid storage tanks including soil interaction. The ground motion process has been characterized via estimates of statistical functionals of wavelet coefficients obtained from a single time history of ground accelerations. The tank–liquid–soil system has been modelled as a two‐degree‐of‐freedom (2‐DOF) system. The wavelet domain equations have been formulated and the wavelet coefficients of the required response state are obtained by solving two linear simultaneous algebraic equations. The explicit expression for the instantaneous power spectral density function (PSDF) in terms of the functionals of the input wavelet coefficients has been obtained. The moments of this PSDF are used to estimate the expected pseudo‐spectral acceleration (PSA) response of the tank. Parametric variations are carried out to study the effects of tank height, foundation natural frequency, shear wave velocity of soil and ratio of the mass of tank (including liquid) to the mass of foundation on the PSA responses of tanks. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
35.
We have examined the global relation betwen the mean monthly surface level humidity and the precipitable water (Q-W relation) developed by Liu (1986) for its applicability to instantaneous data sets as proposed by Hsu and Blanchard (1989) over the Indian oceanic region. Our analysis using regional instantaneous values of W from Monex-79 in-situ data sets gave an rms error of 5.66gm/kg. This is considerably larger than the rms error of 0.4 gm/kg as obtained by Liu using the global mean monthly relation, thus failing to support Hsu and Blanchard's conjecture. However, a fifth-order polynomial in W derived by us based on instantaneous data indicates an rms error of 0.92 gm/kg. 相似文献
36.
S. Basu Mallik 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1970,82(1):55-61
Summary In this note, the problem of disturbances has been investigated in two perfectly (electrically) conductive media-an ideal liquid and a viscoelastic solid of three-parameter type-acted upon by a magnetic field. The electromagnetic equations of Maxwell and the equations of mechanical motion together with the stress-strain relation of the viscoelastic material of three-parameter type have been used to work out the problem. The results exhibit the predominance of transient behaviour in the displacements as well as in the stresses. 相似文献
37.
38.
The hydrocarbon occurrences of asphalts, heavy oils and oil shales in the Dead Sea area and the possible genetic relation between them have been studied. The similarity in organochemical characteristics, i.e., the elemental composition of asphaltenes, the distribution pattern of the saturated hydrocarbons and the predominance of V (over Ni)-porphyrins in both the oils and the asphalts indicate a close relation between them. On the other hand, dissimilarities in the same organochemical characteristics in both the asphalts and the oil shale exclude the hypotheses that asphalt was generated and expelled from the oil shales or that the shales were contaminated by oils. Water washing and biodegradation are considered to be the processes through which preferential depletion of hydrocarbons occurred, altering the oils to asphalts. The burial of the degraded asphalt to a relatively great depth resulted in a secondary generation of small amounts of light saturated hydrocarbons in these asphalts. The oils, which are thought to be the precursors of the asphalts, have either been flushed into the Dead Sea depression from the surrounding elevated areas or have seeped upwards from deep local accumulations in the graben. 相似文献
39.
H. M. Antia Sarbani Basu & S. M. Chitre 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,298(2):543-556
A new set of accurately measured frequencies of solar oscillations is used to infer the rotation rate inside the Sun, as a function of radial distance as well as latitude. We have adopted a regularized least-squares technique with iterative refinement for both 1.5D inversion, using the splitting coefficients, and 2D inversion using individual m splittings. The inferred rotation rate agrees well with earlier estimates showing a shear layer just below the surface and another one around the base of the convection zone. The tachocline or the transition layer where the rotation rate changes from differential rotation in the convection zone to an almost latitudinally independent rotation rate in the radiative interior is studied in detail. No compelling evidence for any latitudinal variation in the position and width of the tachocline is found, although it appears that the tachocline probably shifts to a slightly larger radial distance at higher latitudes and possibly also becomes thicker. However, these variations are within the estimated errors and more accurate data would be needed to make a definitive statement about latitudinal variations. 相似文献
40.
D.P. Thompson A.R. Basu E.W. Hennecke O.K. Manuel 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》1978,17(2):98-107
The abundances and isotopic compositions of noble gases in two samples from ultramafic xenoliths in alkali basalt, a young kaersutitic amphibole separated from a peridotite xenolith from Dish Hill, California and an ancient whole-rock lherzolite xenolith from Baja California, are reported and compared with the results of analyses on other mantle samples. In addition to previously recognized excesses of 3He and 129Xe, our results indicate that ambient gases in the mantle show a general enrichment of the lighter-mass nonradiogenic isotopes of Ar, Kr and Xe, and Ar with 40Ar/36Ar = 3 · 102. 相似文献