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Regional climate modelling over complex terrain: an evaluation study of COSMO-CLM hindcast model runs for the Greater Alpine Region 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this study the results of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) covering the Greater Alpine Region (GAR, 4°–19°W and 43°–49°N) were evaluated against observational data. The simulation was carried out as a hindcast run driven by ERA-40 reanalysis data for the period 1961–2000. The spatial resolution of the model data presented is approx. 10 km per grid point. For the evaluation purposes a variety of observational datasets were used: CRU TS 2.1, E-OBS, GPCC4 and HISTALP. Simple statistics such as mean biases, correlations, trends and annual cycles of temperature and precipitation for different sub-regions were applied to verify the model performance. Furthermore, the altitude dependence of these statistical measures has been taken into account. Compared to the CRU and E-OBS datasets CCLM shows an annual mean cold bias of ?0.6 and ?0.7 °C, respectively. Seasonal precipitation sums are generally overestimated by +8 to +23 % depending on the observational dataset with large variations in space and season. Bias and correlation show a dependency on altitude especially in the winter and summer seasons. Temperature trends in CCLM contradict the signals from observations, showing negative trends in summer and autumn which are in contrast to CRU and E-OBS. 相似文献
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We propose linear response functions to separately estimate the sea-level contributions of thermal expansion and solid ice discharge from Greenland and Antarctica. The response function formalism introduces a time-dependence which allows for future rates of sea-level rise to be influenced by past climate variations. We find that this time-dependence is of the same functional type, R(t) ~ t α, for each of the three subsystems considered here. The validity of the approach is assessed by comparing the sea-level estimates obtained via the response functions to projections from comprehensive models. The pure vertical diffusion case in one dimension, corresponding to α = ?0.5, is a valid approximation for thermal expansion within the ocean up to the middle of the twenty first century for all Representative Concentration Pathways. The approximation is significantly improved for α = ? 0.7. For the solid ice discharge from Greenland we find an optimal value of α = ?0.7. Different from earlier studies we conclude that solid ice discharge from Greenland due to dynamic thinning is bounded by 0.42 m sea-level equivalent. Ice discharge induced by surface warming on Antarctica is best captured by a positive value of α = 0.1 which reflects the fact that ice loss increases with the cumulative amount of heat available for softening the ice in our model. 相似文献
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A set of global climate model simulations for the last thousand years developed by the Max Planck Institute is compared with paleoclimate proxy data and instrumental data, focusing on surface temperatures for land areas between 30° and 75°N. The proxy data are obtained from six previously published Northern Hemispheric-scale temperature reconstructions, here re-calibrated for consistency, which are compared with the simulations utilizing a newly developed statistical framework for ranking several competing simulations by means of their statistical distance against past climate variations. The climate model simulations are driven by either “low” or “high” solar forcing amplitudes (0.1 and 0.25 % smaller total solar irradiance in the Maunder Minimum period compared to the present) in addition to several other known climate forcings of importance. Our results indicate that the high solar forcing amplitude results in a poorer match with the hemispheric-scale temperature reconstructions and lends stronger statistical support for the low-amplitude solar forcing. However, results are likely conditional upon the sensitivity of the climate model used and strongly dependent on the choice of temperature reconstruction, hence a greater consensus is needed regarding the reconstruction of past temperatures as this currently provides a great source of uncertainty. 相似文献
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Alexander N. KROT Anders MEIBOM Michael K. WEISBERG Klaus KEIL 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2002,37(11):1451-1490
Abstract— In this paper, we review the mineralogy and chemistry of calcium‐aluminum‐rich inclusions (CAIs), chondrules, FeNi‐metal, and fine‐grained materials of the CR chondrite clan, including CR, CH, and the metal‐rich CB chondrites Queen Alexandra Range 94411, Hammadah al Hamra 237, Bencubbin, Gujba, and Weatherford. The members of the CR chondrite clan are among the most pristine early solar system materials, which largely escaped thermal processing in an asteroidal setting (Bencubbin, Weatherford, and Gujba may be exceptions) and provide important constraints on the solar nebula models. These constraints include (1) multiplicity of CAI formation; (2) formation of CAIs and chondrules in spatially separated nebular regions; (3) formation of CAIs in gaseous reservoir(s) having 16O‐rich isotopic compositions; chondrules appear to have formed in the presence of 16O‐poor nebular gas; (4) isolation of CAIs and chondrules from nebular gas at various ambient temperatures; (5) heterogeneous distribution of 26Al in the solar nebula; and (6) absence of matrix material in the regions of CAI and chondrule formation. 相似文献