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941.
ABSTRACT

The widespread availability of mobile communication makes mobile devices a resource for the collection of data about mobile infrastructures and user mobility. In these contexts, the problem of reconstructing the most likely trajectory of a device on the road network on the basis of the sequence of observed locations (map-matching problem) turns out to be particularly relevant. Different contributions have demonstrated that the reconstruction of the trajectory of a device with good accuracy is technically feasible even when only a sparse set of GNSS positions is available. In this paper, we face the problem of coping with sparse sequences of cellular fingerprints. Compared to GNSS positions, cellular fingerprints provide coarser spatial information, but they work even when a device is missing GNSS positions or is operating in an energy saving mode. We devise a new map-matching algorithm, that exploits the well-known Hidden Markov Model and Random Forests to successfully deal with noisy and sparse cellular observations. The performance of the proposed solution has been tested over a medium-sized Italian city urban environment by varying both the sampling of the observations and the density of the fingerprint map as well as by including some GPS positions into the sequence of fingerprint observations.  相似文献   
942.
Glacial–interglacial cycles are characterized by strong variations in climatic conditions, which affect the size of continental ice sheets, glaciers and lakes. Such climate‐triggered fluctuations in ice and water masses lead to transient stresses in the Earth's crust, which can be large enough to affect the slip behaviour of faults. In particular, postglacial unloading may increase the slip rate of active faults or re‐activate dormant faults. In the past, numerical modelling has helped to better understand the response of faults to mass fluctuations on Earth's surface. This article provides an overview of the mechanisms and controlling parameters of climate‐induced variations in fault slip as derived from the numerical models. Geological records of postglacial faulting from Scandinavia, the European Alps and the Basin‐and‐Range Province (western USA) are presented. Taken together, modelling and case studies provide a basis for evaluating the future seismic potential in regions that are currently experiencing ice loss or lake regression.  相似文献   
943.
We developed calibration models and reconstructed climate for sites in the central and eastern Canadian High Arctic using dendroclimatological and stable isotope analysis techniques on the dwarf-shrub, Cassiope tetragona. Our results may suggest complex temporal and spatial patterns of climate change in the region over the past century. For sites on Bathurst and Devon Islands, we reconstructed fall mean and June–July mean temperature using multiple linear regression analysis that explained 54?% and 40?% of the variance, respectively. The predictor variables included annual growth, annual production of leaves, flower buds and annual δ13C values for the Bathurst Island model, and annual growth and δ13C values for the Devon Island model. Both models revealed warmer than average temperatures throughout the mid-20th century, followed by a cooling trend from the early 1960s and mid-1970s at the Devon and Bathurst Island sites, respectively. Temperatures remained cool until the early 1980s and then increased until 1998/1999 at both sites. Our models are supported by other paleoclimate proxies and the instrumental record from the Canadian Arctic. For sites on Axel Heiberg and Bathurst Islands, we developed models using multivariate regresssion for February and March total precipitation that explained 44?% and 42?% of the variance, respectively. The Axel Heiberg Island model included annual production of flowers and flower buds, as well as annual δ13C values as predictor variables, while the Bathurst Island model only included the annual production of flower buds as a predictor. Both models showed lower than average precipitation from the early to mid-1900s, followed by increasing precipitation from the late 1980s to 1998/1999. Our precipitation models, supported by instrumental and proxy data, suggest a trend of increasing late-winter/early spring precipitation in the late 20th century. The lack of a single detectable climate signal across the study sites suggests local climate, topography, genetic variation and/or ecological conditions may dictate, in part, site responses and result in a heterogeneous climatescape over space and time. Yet, like other arctic paleoclimate proxies, chronology error and temporal discrepancies may complicate our interpretations. However, comparisons with other arctic proxies and the meteorological record suggest our models have also registered a regional climate signal.  相似文献   
944.
Temperature warming and the increased frequency of climatic anomalies are expected to trigger bark beetle outbreaks with potential severe consequences on forest ecosystems. We characterized the combined effects of climatic factors and density-dependent feedbacks on forest damage caused by Ips typographus (L.), one of the most destructive pests of European spruce forests, and tested whether climate modified the interannual variation in the altitudinal outbreak range of the species. We analyzed a 16-year time-series from the European Alps of timber loss in Picea abies Karsten forests due to I. typographus attacks and used a discrete population model and an information theoretic approach to compare multiple competing hypotheses. The occurrence of dry summers combined with warm temperatures appeared as the main abiotic triggers of severity of outbreaks. We also found an endogenous negative feedback with a 2-year lag suggesting a potential important role of natural enemies. Forest damage per hectare averaged 7-fold higher where spruce was planted in sites warmer than those within its historical climatic range. Dry summers, but not temperature, was related to upward shifts in the altitudinal outbreak range. Considering the potential increased susceptibility of spruce forests to insect outbreaks due to climate change, there is growing value in mitigating these effects through sustainable forest management, which includes avoiding the promotion of spruce outside its historical climatic range.  相似文献   
945.
The sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to changes in basin integrated net evaporation is highly dependent on the zonal salinity contrast at the southern border of the Atlantic. Biases in the freshwater budget strongly affect the stability of the AMOC in numerical models. The impact of these biases is investigated, by adding local anomaly patterns in the South Atlantic to the freshwater fluxes at the surface. These anomalies impact the freshwater and salt transport by the different components of the ocean circulation, in particular the basin-scale salt-advection feedback, completely changing the response of the AMOC to arbitrary perturbations. It is found that an appropriate dipole anomaly pattern at the southern border of the Atlantic Ocean can collapse the AMOC entirely even without a further hosing. The results suggest a new view on the stability of the AMOC, controlled by processes in the South Atlantic.  相似文献   
946.
We present a multiwavelength study of the formation of massive stellar clusters, their emergence from cocoons of gas and dust, and their feedback on surrounding matter. Using data that span from radio to optical wavelengths, including Spitzer and Hubble Space Telescope ACS observations, we examine the population of young star clusters in the central starburst region of the irregular Wolf–Rayet galaxy IC4662. We model the radio-to-infrared (IR) spectral energy distributions of embedded clusters to determine the properties of their Hii regions and dust cocoons (sizes, masses, densities, temperatures), and use near-IR and optical data with mid-IR spectroscopy to constrain the properties of the embedded clusters themselves (mass, age, extinction, excitation, abundance). The two massive star-formation regions in IC4662 are excited by stellar populations with ages of ~4 Myr and masses of ~3×105 M (assuming a Kroupa initial mass function). They have high excitation and subsolar abundances, and they may actually be comprised of several massive clusters rather than the single monolithic massive compact objects known as ‘super star clusters’ (SSCs). Mid-IR spectra reveal that these clusters have very high extinction values, A V ~20–25 mag, and that the dust in IC4662 is well mixed with the emitting gas, not in a foreground screen.  相似文献   
947.
Throughout the Cenozoic Era, the geological history of the Argentinean Patagonia was dominated by basaltic volcanism and glacial and periglacial environments. Several geological and geomorphological processes that concurred to the sculpting of the landscape of this area could have been similar to those responsible of the shaping of the Martian surface. In this work a survey of some high-resolution satellite images of the Argentinean Patagonia is performed in order to identify possible geomorphological analogs of the Martian surface. Several morphologies that resemble Martian features are presented and discussed. They consist of proglacial and periglacial features, relatively small circular depressions, gullies, fan-deltas, eolian streaks, and diluvial dunes. Results suggest that the Argentinean Patagonia appears to consist of an interesting terrestrial analog for the Martian landscape. Furthermore, the study area shows to be interesting in order to test robotic instruments and human missions equipment, to train astronauts of future human expeditions to Mars, and to perform astrobiological experiments.  相似文献   
948.
The development of an accurate analytical procedure for determination of dissolved water in complex alumino-silicate glasses via micro-Raman analysis requires the assessment of the spectra topology dependence on glass composition. We report here a detailed study of the respective influence of bulk composition, iron oxidation state and total water content on the absolute and relative intensities of the main Raman bands related to glass network vibrations (LF: ∼490 cm−1; HF: ∼960 cm−1) and total water stretching (H2OT: ∼3550 cm−1) in natural glasses. The evolution of spectra topology was examined in (i) 33 anhydrous glasses produced by the re-melting of natural rock samples, which span a very large range of polymerisation degree (NBO/T from 0.00 to 1.16), (ii) 2 sets of synthetic anhydrous basaltic glasses with variable iron oxidation state (Fe3+/FeT from 0.05 to 0.87), and (iii) 6 sets of natural hydrous glasses (CH2OT from 0.4 to 7.0 wt%) with NBO/T varying from 0.01 to 0.76.In the explored domain of water concentration, external calibration procedure based on the H2OT band height is matrix-independent but its accuracy relies on precise control of the focusing depth and beam energy on the sample. Matrix-dependence strongly affects the internal calibrations based on H2OT height scaled to that of LF or HF bands but its effect decreases from acid (low NBO/T, SM) to basic (high NBO/T, SM) glasses. Structural parameters such as NBO/T (non-bridging oxygen per tetrahedron) and SM (sum of structural modifiers) describe the matrix-dependence better than simple compositional parameters (e.g. SiO2, Na2O + K2O). Iron oxidation state has only a minor influence on band topology in basalts and is thus not expected to significantly affect the Raman determinations of water in mafic (e.g. low SiO2, iron-rich) glasses. Modelling the evolution of the relative band height with polymerisation degree allows us to propose a general equation to predict the dissolved water content in natural glasses:
  相似文献   
949.
GRIDA3 (Shared Resources Manager for Environmental Data Analysis and Applications) is a multidisciplinary project designed to deliver an integrated system to forge solutions to some environmental challenges such as the constant increase of polluted sites, the sustainability of natural resources usage and the forecast of extreme meteorological events. The GRIDA3 portal is mainly based on Web 2.0 technologies and EnginFrame framework. The portal, now at an advanced stage of development, provides end-users with intuitive Web-interfaces and tools that simplify job submission to the underneath computing resources. The framework manages the user authentication and authorization, then controls the action and job execution into the grid computing environment, collects the results and transforms them into an useful format on the client side. The GRIDA3 Portal framework will provide a problem-solving platform allowing, through appropriate access policies, the integration and the sharing of skills, resources and tools located at multiple sites across federated domains.  相似文献   
950.
Economics of climate policy and collective decision making   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
This paper explores the reasons why economic instruments of climate change are reluctantly applied and stresses the need for interdisciplinary research linking economic theory and empirical testing to deliberative political procedures. It is divided in three parts. The first one recalls the main issues in implementing Cost-Benefit Analysis such as information problems, uncertainties, discounting the future and irreversibilities. The second part shows how these issues can be treated in integrated assessment and techno-economic models and presents a case study, which shows that
  • The chosen scenario tends to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at around 550 ppm in the long run.
  • Exclusion of possibility to trade CO2 emission permits under a cap regime would increase the cost of emission abatement for OECD countries.
  • Combining different flexibility instruments might lead to significant gains in the overall cost of climate policy.
The third part presents results of a survey conducted among the main economic and environmental associations in Switzerland. The survey reveals conflicting views on economic instruments. It shows how the social acceptability of these instruments can be improved in taking explicitly into account these opposing views of special interest groups. Therefore, policy scenarios should be selected in combining techno-economic models with empirical studies about their political and normative context.  相似文献   
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