Simulation of an uncertain emission market for greenhouse gases using agent-based methods     

Zbigniew Nahorski  Jarosław Stańczak  Piotr Pałka 《Climatic change》2014,124(3):647-662

The paper presents the problem of a simulation of the greenhouse gases emission permits market where only low accuracy emission amounts are known. An organization of the market with uncertain emissions is proposed and trading rules for individual market participants are discussed. Simulation of the market is based on a multi-agent system. Negotiation of purchase/sale prices between the parties are introduced, where the trading parties adopt one of two options: (i) bilateral negotiations, and (ii) sealed bid reverse auctions. Results of simulation runs show trajectories of transaction prices, as well as probability distributions of learning agents’ bidding prices.  相似文献   

From Cadomian arc to Ordovician passive margin: geochemical records preserved in metasedimentary successions of the Orlica-Śnieżnik Dome in SW Poland     

Jacek Szczepański  Sławomir Ilnicki 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2014,103(3):627-647

The chemical composition of metamorphosed siliciclastic rocks in the Orlica-?nie?nik Dome (Bohemian Massif) identifies the main sources for the Neoproterozoic [the M?ynowiec Formation (MF)], Early Cambrian [the Stronie Formation (SF)] and Late Cambrian/Early Ordovician [the Goszów quartzites (GQ)] sediments. The MF developed from erosion of a Cadomian magmatic arc along the northern Gondwana margin. The variegated SF, with supra-subduction affinities, shows chemical characteristics pointing to erosion of the freshly exhumed Cadomian orogen and detritus deposition in the back-arc basin. The very different chemical features of the GQ indicate deposition in a basin sited on a passive continental margin. The explanation proposed for the observed changes in chemical composition involves three main stages: (1) The pre ~540 Ma evolution of an active continental margin and related back-arc basin ceased with the collision and accretion of the magmatic arc to the Gondwana margin; (2) Early Cambrian rift to drift transition (540–500 Ma) and development of a depositional basin filled with detritus derived from remnants of the magmatic arc; (3) Peri-Gondwana break-up leading to the formation of shallow-water passive margin depositional basins filled with quartz-rich detritus resembling Early Ordovician Armorican quartzites known from other parts of the Variscan Belt.  相似文献   

Analysis of labile form of aluminum and heavy metals in bottom sediments from Kongsfjord, Isfjord, Hornsund fjords     

Marcin Frankowski  Anetta Zioła-Frankowska 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(3):1147-1158

The paper presents study results obtained for the bottom sediment samples of fjords Kongsfjord, Isfjord, Hornsund in the form of surface samples and their core profiles. The concentrations of labile form of aluminum and heavy metals were determined using the single-stage extraction with 3 mol L^?1 HCl. The obtained results allowed defining the occurrence of variability of labile aluminum form in the samples of bottom sediments of the studied fjords depending on the point and depth of sample collection. The conducted chemometric analysis allowed for the study of spatial variability of aluminum occurrence in the area of the investigated fjords. Based on the analysis, the correlations between aluminum and heavy metals were determined.  相似文献   

Luminescence and other spectroscopic properties of purple and green Cr-clinochlore     

Maria Czaja  Mariola Kądziołka-Gaweł  Radosław Lisiecki  Sabina Bodył-Gajowska  Zbigniew Mazurak 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2014,41(2):115-126

For the first time ever, the luminescence spectra of Cr³⁺ centers in two chlorite crystals are presented. Chromium ions occupy the strong crystal-field site M4 in the brucite sheet and the intermediate crystal-field site in the inner octahedral sheet for purple and green chlorite, respectively. We discuss the influence of an effective positive charge on the Cr³⁺ ion and an effective negative charge of ligands on the differences in the values of the Dq and B parameters. It is concluded that the presence of Fe²⁺ ions and other point defects, as well as concentration quenching, causes the very short luminescence lifetimes of chromium ions.  相似文献   

Numerical modeling and neural networks to identify model parameters from piezocone tests: I. FEM analysis of penetration in two‐phase continuum     

Rafał F. Obrzud  Andrzej Truty  Laurent Vulliet 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2011,35(16):1703-1730

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Pure cross-anisotropy for geotechnical elastic potentials     

Niemunis  Andrzej  Staszewska  Katarzyna 《Acta Geotechnica》2022,17(5):1699-1717

The pure cross-anisotropy is understood as a special scaling of strain (or stress). The scaled tensor is used as an argument in the elastic stiffness (or compliance). Such anisotropy can be overlaid on the top of any elastic stiffness, in particular on one obtained from an elastic potential with its own stress-induced anisotropy. This superposition does not violate the Second Law. The method can be also applied to other functions like plastic potentials or yield surfaces, wherever some cross-anisotropy is desired. The pure cross-anisotropy is described by the sedimentation vector and at most two constants. Scaling with more than two purely anisotropic constants is shown impossible. The formulation was compared with experiments and alternative approaches. Static and dynamic calibration of the pure anisotropy is also discussed. Graphic representation of stiffness with the popular response envelopes requires some enhancement for anisotropy. Several examples are presented. All derivations and examples were accomplished using the algebra program Mathematica.

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Periglacial and Fluvial Factors Controlling the Sedimentation of Pleistocene Breccia in NW Poland          下载免费PDF全文

Piotr Weckwerth  Małgorzata Pisarska‐Jamroży 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2015,97(2):415-430

Breccias were investigated on the terrace of the Toruń‐Eberswalde ice‐marginal valley at Rozwarzyn (NW Poland). Breccia layers include soft‐sediment clasts with diameters between 2 and 256 mm and soft‐sediment megaclasts with diameters from 256 mm to 7 m. The shape of the soft‐sediment clasts and megaclasts (derived from frozen sediments) in the breccia is diverse: from angular and irregular in the case of debris‐flow breccias to slightly rounded and tabular in fluvial breccias. These two types of breccias were developed during the Late Weichselian when the periglacial climate favored extensive lateral erosion by currents of frozen braided channels in the ice‐marginal valley. The dual presence of breccias of fluvial and debris‐flow origin in channel deposits is unique for Quaternary sediments. Zones of breccias existed in the channels where scours and obstacle marks related to megaclasts developed. The study of breccias shed new light on the fluvial processes in ice‐marginal valleys during the Pleistocene and can be considered as diagnostic for fluvio‐periglacial conditions.  相似文献   

Relationship between the environmental and hydrogeological elements characterizing groundwater-dependent ecosystems in central Poland     

Ewa Krogulec  Sebastian Zabłocki 《Hydrogeology Journal》2015,23(7):1587-1602

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Integral Turbulence Statistics Over a Central European City Centre   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Krzysztof Fortuniak  Włodzimierz Pawlak  Mariusz Siedlecki 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2013,146(2):257-276

Atmospheric measurements over 5 years (2005–2010) at two sites in ?ód?, central Poland have been analyzed to develop a better understanding of turbulence in urban areas. Fast response wind velocity, temperature, humidity and CO₂ concentration were measured using sonic anemometers and gas analyzers, placed on narrow masts at 37 and 42 m above the ground. The measurements were used to calculate standard deviations of each parameter, and were then normalized according to local Monin–Obukhov similarity theory and plotted as a function of stability parameter ζ = z′/L. Results for the wind components show typical scaling with a power law with exponent ±1/3 in the free convection limit, and that approaches a constant value close to neutral stratification. For stable conditions, the constant value in the neutral limit remains the same for stability parameters lower than 0.1–0.2, then increases. The normalized standard deviation of temperature fits the ?1/3 law in the free convection limit, approaching a constant value within a stable limit. However, it exhibits hyperbolic characteristics for close to neutral stratification. The normalized standard deviations for humidity and CO₂ concentration exhibit scaling similar to the wind components in the unstable regime and remain constant in the stable domain. The results for the wind components and for temperature are in the range of various functions found in other studies. The absolute values for humidity and CO₂ concentration seem to be slightly higher, but only single examples of such investigations can be found in the literature.  相似文献   

Analysis of the surface temperature and wind forecast errors of the NCAR-AirDat operational CONUS 4-km WRF forecasting system   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Andrzej A. Wyszogrodzki  Yubao Liu  Neil Jacobs  Peter Childs  Yongxin Zhang  Gregory Roux  Thomas T. Warner 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2013,122(3-4):125-143

Investigating the characteristics of model-forecast errors using various statistical and object-oriented methods is necessary for providing useful guidance to end-users and model developers as well. To this end, the random and systematic errors (i.e., biases) of the 2-m temperature and 10-m wind predictions of the NCAR-AirDat weather research and forecasting (WRF)-based real-time four-dimensional data assimilation (RTFDDA) and forecasting system are analyzed. This system has been running operationally over a contiguous United States (CONUS) domain at a 4-km grid spacing with four forecast cycles daily from June 2009 to September 2010. In the result an exceptionally useful forecast dataset was generated and used for studying the error properties of the model forecasts, in terms of both a longer time period and a broader coverage of geographic regions than previously studied. Spatiotemporal characteristics of the errors are investigated based on the 24-h forecasts between June 2009 and April 2010, and the 72-h forecasts between May and September 2010. It was found that the biases of both wind and temperature forecasts vary greatly seasonally and diurnally, with dependency on the forecast length, station elevation, geographical location, and meteorological conditions. The temperature showed systematic cold biases during the daytime at all station elevations and warm biases during the nighttime above 1,000 m above sea level (ASL), while below 600 m ASL cold biases occurred during the nighttime. The forecasts of surface wind speed exhibited strong positive biases during the nighttime, while the negative biases were observed in the spring and summer afternoons. The surface wind speed was mostly over-predicted except for the stations located between 1,000 and 2,100 m ASL, for which negative biases were identified for most forecast cycles. The highest wind-speed errors were found over the high terrain and near sea-level stations. The wind-direction errors were relatively large at the high-terrain elevation in the Rocky and Appalachian mountain ranges and the western coastal areas and the error structure exhibited notable diurnal variability.  相似文献