Analysis of the surface temperature and wind forecast errors of the NCAR-AirDat operational CONUS 4-km WRF forecasting system   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Andrzej A. Wyszogrodzki  Yubao Liu  Neil Jacobs  Peter Childs  Yongxin Zhang  Gregory Roux  Thomas T. Warner 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2013,122(3-4):125-143

Investigating the characteristics of model-forecast errors using various statistical and object-oriented methods is necessary for providing useful guidance to end-users and model developers as well. To this end, the random and systematic errors (i.e., biases) of the 2-m temperature and 10-m wind predictions of the NCAR-AirDat weather research and forecasting (WRF)-based real-time four-dimensional data assimilation (RTFDDA) and forecasting system are analyzed. This system has been running operationally over a contiguous United States (CONUS) domain at a 4-km grid spacing with four forecast cycles daily from June 2009 to September 2010. In the result an exceptionally useful forecast dataset was generated and used for studying the error properties of the model forecasts, in terms of both a longer time period and a broader coverage of geographic regions than previously studied. Spatiotemporal characteristics of the errors are investigated based on the 24-h forecasts between June 2009 and April 2010, and the 72-h forecasts between May and September 2010. It was found that the biases of both wind and temperature forecasts vary greatly seasonally and diurnally, with dependency on the forecast length, station elevation, geographical location, and meteorological conditions. The temperature showed systematic cold biases during the daytime at all station elevations and warm biases during the nighttime above 1,000 m above sea level (ASL), while below 600 m ASL cold biases occurred during the nighttime. The forecasts of surface wind speed exhibited strong positive biases during the nighttime, while the negative biases were observed in the spring and summer afternoons. The surface wind speed was mostly over-predicted except for the stations located between 1,000 and 2,100 m ASL, for which negative biases were identified for most forecast cycles. The highest wind-speed errors were found over the high terrain and near sea-level stations. The wind-direction errors were relatively large at the high-terrain elevation in the Rocky and Appalachian mountain ranges and the western coastal areas and the error structure exhibited notable diurnal variability.  相似文献   

Energy-dependent variability from accretion flows     

Andrzej A. Zdziarski 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,360(3):816-824

We develop a formalism to calculate energy-dependent fractional variability (rms) in accretion flows. We consider rms spectra resulting from radial dependences of the level of local variability (as expected from the propagation of disturbances in accretion flows) assuming the constant shape of the spectrum emitted at a given radius. We consider the cases when the variability of the flow is either coherent or incoherent between different radial zones. As an example of local emission, we consider blackbody, Wien and thermal Comptonization spectra. In addition to numerical results, we present a number of analytical formulae for the resulting rms. We also find an analytical formula for the disc Wien spectrum, which we find to be a very good approximation to the disc blackbody. We compare our results to the rms spectrum observed in an ultrasoft state of GRS 1915+105.  相似文献   

Mechanics of a sandy subsoil subjected to cyclic loadings     

Andrzej Sawicki  Waldemar Swidzinski 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》1989,13(5):511-529

A simple model for compaction of a sand, that may be useful in various geotechnical applications is presented. The model has been formulated in terms of the cyclic stress and strain amplitudes. The compaction properties of a dry sand are characterized by a common compaction curve described by two coefficients. The second aim of this paper is to show some applications of the theory proposed. The attention has been restricted to the two extreme cases of practical importance, namely to the behaviour of a dry sand (or a saturated sand but in free draining conditions), and to the behaviour of saturated sand in undrained conditions. Some numerical algorithms showing how to deal with those problems are presented and illustrated on the following examples: settlement and pore pressure generation in a soil stratum subjected to an earthquake, settlement of a foundation, pore pressure generation and liquefaction in a sea-bed. The results obtained suggest that the model proposed, as well as a method of dealing with boundary value problems can serve as a useful tool for the analysis of a sandy subsoil subjected to cyclic loadings.  相似文献   

Discovery of powerful millisecond flares from Cygnus X-1     

Marek Gierli&#;ski  Andrzej A. Zdziarski 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,343(3):L84-L88

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Dynamic ray tracing on Lagrangian manifolds     

Andrzej Hanyga 《Geophysical Journal International》1984,79(1):51-63

Summary. We show that Maslov's extension of the WKBJ method allows an extension of the dynamic ray tracing to wavefields involving caustics of arbitrary form. If the receiver lies off the caustics, then the synthetic seismogram can be obtained by integrating the DRT system along a single ray joining the receiver to the source which may touch caustics. If the receiver-lies in the vicinity of a caustic then DRT has to be carried out along a bunch of rays covering a neighbourhood of the receiver. Our approach encompasses pre-stressed and/or anisotropic media. Initial boundary conditions for a point source embedded in an anisotropic elastic medium are also presented.  相似文献   

The eastern continuation of the Cadomian orogen: U–Pb zircon evidence from Saxo-Thuringian granitoids in south-western Poland and the northern Czech Republic     

Żelaźniewicz  Andrzej  Dörr  Wolfgang  Bylina  Paweł  Franke  Wolfgang  Haack  Udo  Heinisch  Helmut  Schastok  Janina  Grandmontagne  Klaus  Kulicki  Cyprian 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2004,93(5):773-781

We report U–Pb single zircon ages from three pre-Variscan granitoids in the NE part of the Bohemian Massif. The Platerówka granodiorite from the Lausitz-Izera Unit, the Polish Sudetes, has been dated at 533±9 Ma. The Bitouchov granite form the SW part of the South Krkonoe Unit, the Czech Sudetes, gave an age of 540+11/–10 Ma, and the Wdroe granodiorite in the Fore-Sudetic Block yielded 548±9 Ma. All these latest Vendian/Early Cambrian granitoids represent the post-tectonic expression of a late Proterozoic Cadomian orogenic cycle and demonstrate the eastward extent of the Cadomian basement into the Variscan orogen. Granodiorites of similar age have so far been reported from Brittany and especially from the Saxo-Thuringian Terrane to the NE and SW of the Elbe Fault Zone. We conclude that the Saxo-Thuringian Terrane extends across the Elbe and Sudetic Marginal Fault Zones into the Fore-Sudetic Block.  相似文献   

A comparison of MODIS-derived cloud amount with visual surface observations   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Andrzej Z. Kotarba   《Atmospheric Research》2009,92(4):522-530

Two main sources for global cloud climatologies are visual surface observations and observations made by spaceborne sensors. Satellite observations compared with surface data show in most cases differences ranging from − 15% up to − 1%, depending on sensor and observation conditions. These differences are partially controlled by sensors' cloud detection capabilities — a higher number of spectral bands and higher spatial resolution are believed to allow discrimination of clouds from land/ocean/snow background. A Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) produces images of the atmosphere in 36 spectral bands with a spatial resolution of 250–1000 m, thus having a capacity for cloud detection far more advanced than other operating sensors. In this study, instantaneous MODIS cloud observations were compared with surface data for Poland for January (winter) and July (summer) 2004. It was found that MODIS observed 4.38% greater cloud amount in summer conditions and 7.28% in winter conditions. Differences were greater at night (7–8%) than in daytime (0.5–7%) and correlations ranged between 0.577 (winter night) and 0.843 (winter day, summer day and night).  相似文献   

Downward longwave radiation estimates for clear and all-sky conditions in the Sertãozinho region of São Paulo, Brazil     

Nadiane Smaha Kruk  Íria Fernades Vendrame  Humberto Ribeiro da Rocha  Sin Chan Chou  Osvaldo Cabral 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2010,99(1-2):115-123

The accurate estimate of the surface longwave fluxes contribution is important for the calculation of the surface radiation budget, which in turn controls all the components of the surface energy budget, such as evaporation and the sensible heat fluxes. This study evaluates the performance of the various downward longwave radiation parameterizations for clear and all-sky days applied to the Sertãozinho region in São Paulo, Brazil. Equations have been adjusted to the observations of longwave radiation. The adjusted equations were evaluated for every hour throughout the day and the results showed good fits for most of the day, except near dawn and sunset, followed by nighttime. The seasonal variation was studied by comparing the dry period against the rainy period in the dataset. The least square linear regressions resulted in coefficients equal to the coefficients found for the complete period, both in the dry period and in the rainy period. It is expected that the best fit equation to the observed data for this site be used to produce estimates in other regions of the State of São Paulo, where such information is not available.  相似文献   

AGB star intershell abundances inferred from UV spectra of extremely hot post-AGB stars     

K. Werner  T. Rauch  E. Reiff  J. W. Kruk 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2009,320(1-3):159-166

The hydrogen-deficiency in extremely hot post-AGB stars of spectral class PG1159 is probably caused by a (very) late helium-shell flash or a AGB final thermal pulse that consumes the hydrogen envelope, exposing the usually-hidden intershell region. Thus, the photospheric element abundances of these stars allow us to draw conclusions about details of nuclear burning and mixing processes in the precursor AGB stars. We compare predicted element abundances to those determined by quantitative spectral analyses performed with advanced non-LTE model atmospheres. A good qualitative and quantitative agreement is found for many species (He, C, N, O, Ne, F, Si, Ar) but discrepancies for others (P, S, Fe) point at shortcomings in stellar evolution models for AGB stars. Almost all of the chemical trace elements in these hot stars can only be identified in the UV spectral range. The Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer and the Hubble Space Telescope played a crucial role for this research.  相似文献   

Global ionosphere map constructed by using total electron content from ground-based GNSS receiver and FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC GPS occultation experiment     

Yang-Yi Sun  Jann-Yenq Liu  Ho-Fang Tsai  Andrzej Krankowski 《GPS Solutions》2017,21(4):1583-1591

Effects of rapidly changing ionospheric weather are critical in high accuracy positioning, navigation, and communication applications. A system used to construct the global total electron content (TEC) distribution for monitoring the ionospheric weather in near-real time is needed in the modern society. Here we build the TEC map named Taiwan Ionosphere Group for Education and Research (TIGER) Global Ionospheric Map (GIM) from observations of ground-based GNSS receivers and space-based FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (F3/C) GPS radio occultation observations using the spherical harmonic expansion and Kalman filter update formula. The TIGER GIM (TGIM) will be published in near-real time of 4-h delay with a spatial resolution of 2.5° in latitude and 5° in longitude and a high temporal resolution of every 5 min. The F3/C TEC results in an improvement on the GIM of about 15.5%, especially over the ocean areas. The TGIM highly correlates with the GIMs published by other international organizations. Therefore, the routinely published TGIM in near-real time is not only for communication, positioning, and navigation applications but also for monitoring and scientific study of ionospheric weathers, such as magnetic storms and seismo-ionospheric anomalies.  相似文献