Application of the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios: Reflections and lessons learnt     

Megan Gawith  Roger Street  Richard Westaway  Anna Steynor 《Global Environmental Change》2009,19(1):113-121

The UKCIP02 climate change scenarios have become the standard reference for climate change in the UK since their release in 2002. This paper describes and reflects on the ways in which they have been applied. It then identifies some strengths, weaknesses and barriers to their application, and extracts key lessons that may inform the development and provision of future climate change scenarios.Analysis of the application of UKCIP02 shows that the scenarios have been used primarily as a communication device, as well as for scientific research and to inform policy and decision-making on climate change. They have played a critical role in raising awareness on climate change and in engaging organisations in the need to adapt. Their presentation in an accessible style, and their availability in a variety of formats, greatly facilitated their uptake. However, analysis has also revealed weaknesses which served as barriers to their uptake. Some of these, such as file format and accessibility issues, were readily overcome through technical solutions. Others, such as the issue of how to use uncertain information in decision-making, have only been partially addressed and remain an outstanding challenge for future scenario packages. Two key lessons have emerged which may benefit the provision of future climate scenarios in the UK and elsewhere. First, it is not enough to simply make climate change scenarios available. Their provision must be accompanied by ongoing guidance and support to ensure widespread and appropriate uptake. Second, on-going dialogue between those providing scenarios and the communities using them is fundamental to constructively meet the challenges associated with delivering credible scenarios that balance user requirements and expectations with what the science can deliver.  相似文献   

High frequency oscillations during magnetar flares     

Anna L. Watts  Tod E. Strohmayer 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2007,308(1-4):625-629

The recent discovery of high frequency oscillations during giant flares from the Soft Gamma Repeaters SGR 1806-20 and SGR 1900+14 may be the first direct detection of vibrations in a neutron star crust. If this interpretation is correct it offers a novel means of testing the neutron star equation of state, crustal breaking strain, and magnetic field configuration. We review the observational data on the magnetar oscillations, including new timing analysis of the SGR 1806-20 giant flare using data from the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager and the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer. We discuss the implications for the study of neutron star structure and crust thickness, and outline areas for future investigation.   相似文献   

The first cuckoo in winter: Phenology,recording, credibility and meaning in Britain     

Anna Lawrence 《Global Environmental Change》2009,19(2):173-179

Biological recording is a long-established feature of amateur natural history in Britain. Phenology (the recording of seasonal events) in particular has provided scientists with important long-term data sets. These data are of increasing interest as indicators of climate change and its impacts. Most scientists treat the data as the object of interest, while less attention has been paid to the two-way process of knowledge creation, and the significance of the inner, personal part of that. Phenological recording provides an interesting window on this because it is relatively straightforward (and therefore involves a wider range of people than more technically demanding recording), and because it is linked to the climate change discourse (and therefore connected with emotional and moral framings of the situation). This paper describes the rise of popular phenology in the UK and explores these dynamically related aspects of knowledge creation by drawing on accounts in the media and by participants. It concludes that reflexivity and credibility are important aspects of both personal and interpersonal meaning-making, and suggests that attention to both subjective integration of data, and the scale of local cultures of knowledge, are important in understanding the potential for connecting networks of citizen science. Phenology therefore appears to have a particular role to play in public understanding of climate change, which extends beyond the merely extractive collection of data to a more deeply integrated connection between observation and meaning.  相似文献   

A reach‐scale biogeochemical model for temporary rivers     

Ourania Tzoraki  Nikolaos P. Nikolaidis  Anna Rosa Trancoso  Frank Braunschweig  Ramiro Neves 《水文研究》2009,23(2):272-283

The RS‐tempQ Model ( r each– s cale t emporary flow biogeochemical model) is a conceptual model that can describe the hydrologic, sediment transport and biogeochemical processes of temporary rivers at the reach scale. The model takes into account the expansion–contraction of the inundated area of the river. It simulates the sediment transport and the nutrient fluxes that are transferred to the coastal area due to the first flash flood and during extreme rain events. The RS‐tempQ Model simulates the in‐stream processes during the wet and dry cycles as the river corridor expands and contracts. The model was used to assess and quantify the hydrologic and geochemical processes occurring in a temporary river reach (Krathis River) in Greece. Since the conventional gauging techniques cannot measure the flow in rivers that are split into small braided streams, discharge measurements could not be obtained in order to calibrate and verify the model. Other field measurements such as infiltration losses and sediment accumulation were used for model calibration. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Patterns in abundance and size of two deep-water gorgonian octocorals,in relation to depth and substrate features off Nova Scotia     

Shana Watanabe  Anna Metaxas  Jessica Sameoto  Peter Lawton 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2009,56(12):2235-2248

Deep-water corals form unique ecosystems, yet very little is known about factors that regulate their distribution and growth. The abundance and size of two deep-water gorgonian coral species, Paragorgia arborea and Primnoa resedaeformis, and their relationship with depth and substratum cover, were investigated at Northeast Channel, off Nova Scotia, in July 2006. This is the first study to measure abundance and size of these two coral species at depths >500 m in the Canadian Atlantic region. A total of 5 transects between 500 and 1000 m depth were examined using video collected by the remotely operated vehicle ROPOS. Abundance of both species was patchy, but higher at these deeper depths than at <500 m. Abundance generally declined with depth, and was moderately correlated with cover of hard substratum (cobble, boulder, bedrock). These relationships were stronger and less variable for P. resedaeformis than for P. arborea, suggesting that factors such as topographic relief may play an additional role in regulating distributions of P. arborea. Maximum colony height was 125 and 240 cm for P. resedaeformis and P. arborea, respectively, and much greater than recorded for depths <500 m. Overall, colony height and depth relationships were strong for both species, but variable among transects. P. resedaeformis showed a negative relationship with depth, while the opposite was observed for P. arborea, suggesting that the two species are affected differently by factors that vary with depth (e.g. temperature, fishing disturbance). Relationships between colony size and size of attachment stone were stronger for P. arborea, especially for overturned colonies, than for P. resedaeformis, suggesting that availability of suitably coarse substrate may be more important for the long-term persistence of P. arborea colonies.  相似文献   

Consistent global responses of marine ecosystems to future climate change across the IPCC AR5 earth system models     

Cabré  Anna  Marinov  Irina  Leung  Shirley 《Climate Dynamics》2015,45(5-6):1253-1280

Climate Dynamics - We analyze for the first time all 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models with explicit marine ecological modules to identify the common mechanisms involved in...  相似文献   

Characteristics of Type-II Radio Bursts Associated with Flares and CMEs     

V.?VasanthEmail author  S.?Umapathy  Bojan?Vr?nak  M.?Anna?Lakshmi 《Solar physics》2011,273(1):143-162

We present a statistical study of the characteristics of type-II radio bursts observed in the metric (m) and deca-hectometer (DH) wavelength range during 1997–2008. The collected events are divided into two groups: Group I contains the events of m-type-II bursts with starting frequency ≥ 100 MHz, and group II contains the events with starting frequency of m-type-II radio bursts < 100 MHz. We have analyzed both samples considering three different aspects: i) statistical properties of type-II bursts, ii) statistical properties of flares and CMEs associated with type-II bursts, and iii) time delays between type-II bursts, flares, and CMEs. We find significant differences in the properties of m-type-II bursts in duration, bandwidth, drift rate, shock speed and delay between m- and DH-type-II bursts. From the timing analysis we found that the majority of m-type-II bursts in both groups occur during the flare impulsive phase. On the other hand, the DH-type-II bursts in both groups occur during the decaying phase of the associated flares. Almost all m-DH-type-II bursts are found to be associated with CMEs. Our results indicate that there are two kinds of shock in which group I (high frequency) m-type-II bursts seem to be ignited by flares whereas group II (low frequency) m-type-II bursts are CME-driven.  相似文献   

Global change and marine communities: alien species and climate change   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Occhipinti-Ambrogi A 《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,55(7-9):342-352

Anthropogenic influences on the biosphere since the advent of the industrial age are increasingly causing global changes. Climatic change and the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are ranking high in scientific and public agendas, and other components of global change are also frequently addressed, among which are the introductions of non indigenous species (NIS) in biogeographic regions well separated from the donor region, often followed by spectacular invasions. In the marine environment, both climatic change and spread of alien species have been studied extensively; this review is aimed at examining the main responses of ecosystems to climatic change, taking into account the increasing importance of biological invasions. Some general principles on NIS introductions in the marine environment are recalled, such as the importance of propagule pressure and of development stages during the time course of an invasion. Climatic change is known to affect many ecological properties; it interacts also with NIS in many possible ways. Direct (proximate) effects on individuals and populations of altered physical-chemical conditions are distinguished from indirect effects on emergent properties (species distribution, diversity, and production). Climatically driven changes may affect both local dispersal mechanisms, due to the alteration of current patterns, and competitive interactions between NIS and native species, due to the onset of new thermal optima and/or different carbonate chemistry. As well as latitudinal range expansions of species correlated with changing temperature conditions, and effects on species richness and the correlated extinction of native species, some invasions may provoke multiple effects which involve overall ecosystem functioning (material flow between trophic groups, primary production, relative extent of organic material decomposition, extent of benthic-pelagic coupling). Some examples are given, including a special mention of the situation of the Mediterranean Sea, where so many species have been introduced recently, and where some have spread in very large quantities. An increasing effort by marine scientists is required, not only to monitor the state of the environment, but also to help predicting future changes and finding ways to mitigate or manage them.  相似文献   

Climate change transformation: A definition and typology to guide decision making in urban environments     

Anna C. Hurlimann  Sareh Moosavi  Geoffrey R. Browne 《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2010

Climate change presents a threat to the sustainability of cities and their societies, and must be adequately addressed. Urban environments (cities) are responsible for the creation of a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions which are the source of climate change. Cities have been increasingly the focus of action to address climate change, yet emissions are not significantly reducing. Additionally, there a lack of integration between adaptation and mitigation. This prevents responses adequate to limit global warming to 1.5^OC, and to be well adapted to anticipated changes. This paper critically analyses existing definitions and typologies of climate change actions. A definition of ‘climate change transformation’ is proposed which includes the integration of adaptation and mitigation goals to enable a new regime in which global warming is limited to 1.5^OC. A new three-part typology: ‘coping, malaction and transformation,’ is presented for categorising climate change actions by the extent to which they integrate adaptation and mitigation, and define a new regime. The typology is accompanied by illustrations to demonstrate the relationship between adaptation and mitigation. The definition, typology and illustration serve to guide effective climate change decision making, and provides principles to guide application in urban environments.  相似文献   

Low-molecular weight hydrocarbons in vent fluids from the Main Endeavour Field, northern Juan de Fuca Ridge     

Anna M. Cruse  Jeffrey S. Seewald 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2010,74(21):6126-6140

Despite its location on sediment-free basalt, vent fluids from the Main Endeavour Field (MEF) contain chemical species that indicate fluids have interacted with sediments during circulation. We report on the distribution and isotopic abundances of organic compounds (C₁-C₃ alkanes and alkenes, benzene and toluene) in fluids collected from the Main Endeavour Field (MEF) in July, 2000, to understand the processes that regulate their abundances and characterize fluid sources. Aqueous organic compounds are derived from the thermal alteration of sedimentary organic matter and subsequently undergo further oxidation reactions during fluid flow. Fluid:sediment mass ratios calculated using ΣNH₄ concentrations indicate that the sediments are distal to the MEF, resulting in a common reservoir of fluids for all of the vents. Following the generation from sediment alteration, aqueous organic compounds undergo secondary alteration reactions via a stepwise oxidation reaction mechanism. Alkane distributions and isotopic compositions indicate that organic compounds in MEF fluids have undergone a greater extent of alteration as compared to Middle Valley fluids, either due to differences in subsurface redox conditions or the residence time of fluids at subsurface conditions. The distributions of the aromatic compounds benzene and toluene are qualitatively consistent with the subsurface conditions indicated by equilibration of aqueous alkanes and alkanes. However, benzene and toluene do not achieve chemical equilibrium in the subsurface. Methane and CO₂ also do not equilibrate chemically or isotopically at reaction zone temperatures, a likely result of an insufficient reaction time after addition of CO₂ from magmatic sources during upflow. The organic geochemistry supports the assumption that the sediments with which MEF fluids interact has the same composition as sediments present in Middle Valley itself, and highlight differences in subsurface reaction zone conditions and fluid flow pathways at these two sites.  相似文献