Are natural hazards temporally random?     

Philip E. Graves  Anne E. Bresnock 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》1985,5(1):5-12

The paper employs statistical hypothesis tests to explore the question of whether natural hazards (hail and tornadoes being considered here) are or are not intertemporally random. The answer to this question, at least for these two hazards, is surprising and has important policy implications: hazards appear to be more likely in year t if an event was experienced in year t?1: hence, apparent ‘Gambler's Fallacy’ behaviour on the part of farmers and others may indeed be rational. Should this result hold for a full range of climate-related hazard types. as we suspect, hundreds of millions of dollars of crop loss and other damages may be preventable (e.g., rotating to frost-resistant crops if past events suggest greater than usual likelihood of early or late frost). The degree of positive serial correlation is also seen to vary a great deal regionally, with individuals in some states being unable to benefit from knowledge of prior hazard occurrence.  相似文献   

A late Neoproterozoic paleomagnetic pole for the Congo craton: Tectonic setting, paleomagnetism and geochronology of the Nola dike swarm (Central African Republic)     

Gatan R. Moloto-A-Kenguemba  Ricardo I.F. Trindade  Patrick Moni  Anne Ndlec  Roberto Siqueira 《Precambrian Research》2008,164(3-4):214-226

New structural, geochronological and paleomagnetic data were obtained on dolerite dikes of the Nola region (Central African Republic) at the northern border of the Congo craton. In this region, metavolcanic successions were thrust southward onto the craton during the Panafrican orogenic events. Our structural data reveal at least two structural klippes south of the present-day limits of the Panafrican nappe suggesting that it has once covered the whole Nola region, promoting the pervasive hydrothermal greenschist metamorphism observed in the underlying cratonic basement and also in the intrusive dolerite dikes. Paleomagnetic measurements revealed a stable dual-polarity low-inclination magnetization component in nine dikes (47 samples), carried by pyrrhotite and magnetite. This component corresponds to a paleopole at 304.8°E and 61.8°S (dp = 5.4, dm = 10.7) graded at Q = 6. Both metamorphism and magnetic resetting were dated by the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method on amphibole grains separated from the dikes at 571 ± 6 Ma. The Nola pole is the first well-dated paleomagnetic pole for the Congo craton between 580 and 550 Ma. It marks a sudden change in direction of the Congo craton apparent polar wander path at the waning stages of the Panafrican orogenic events.  相似文献   

Upcoming international events     

Anne Marie de Grosbois 《Environmental Geology》2008,54(5):1121-1126

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The landslides threatening Tasova town (Central Anatolia, Turkey) and their environmental impacts     

R. Pelin Bilgehan  Recep Kiliç 《Environmental Geology》2008,55(1):179-190

There exist a number of landslides along the north Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) between Tasova and Alparslan in Amasya province in Turkey. These landslides extending over an area of 2.5 × 6.0 km are triggered by steepening of slopes due to undercutting by the Yesilirmak River and groundwater fluctuations. The landslides have affected 30 buildings in the western part of Tasova. In this study, in order to investigate the engineering geological characteristics of the landslides and their environmental impacts, representative samples from geological units were collected and a total of six boreholes were drilled. Plastic pipes were installed into the boreholes to measure the groundwater fluctuations and to determine the position of the sliding surface. For a two-year monitoring period, using a GPS linked to a fixed station system, the magnitude of the movements ranged between 11.7 and 17.6 cm at the toe of landslide. The landslides that occurred in the study area were in the form of retrogressive circular and multiple circular failures. The factor of safety along a number of cross-sections calculated by the limit-equilibrium method of analysis is 0.96 in static condition. After further analyses, construction of a toe buttress with surface drainage may be suggested as a remedial measure to minimize the effects of these landslides.  相似文献   

Assessment of sandstone deterioration at Ta Keo temple (Angkor): first results and future prospects     

Marie-Françoise André  Samuel Etienne  Denis Mercier  Franck Vautier  Olivier Voldoire 《Environmental Geology》2008,56(3-4):677-688

A first application of geomorphological methods to the assessment of sandstone deterioration at Angkor is presented. Damage diagnosis was carried out on the first eastern tier of the central pyramid of the 1,000 year-old Ta Keo temple. Methods combine field observations and measurements at 230 sampling points, high-resolution lasergrammetry and stereophotogrammetry on a 2-m² test zone, and SEM observations. The first results indicate that decay operates through a synergistic combination of weathering phenomena dominated by scaling and solution, and exhibits a high spatial variability. Percentages of deteriorated surfaces vary from 17.6 to 93.8%, and average stone recession values from 0.00 to 2.71 cm (minimum) and 0.34 to 5.49 cm (maximum). On the test-zone, stereophotogrammetry and 3D-mapping of the present and reconstructed initial states using lasergrammetry indicate that erosion scars up to 6 cm deep have formed since 1963. On the whole, the amount of deteriorated surfaces more than tripled between 1963 and 2008. The degree of implication of salts in stone decay remains unclear for most efflorescences are composed of calcite (CaCO3), with secondary importance of barite (BaSO4) and gypsum (CaSO₄·2H₂O). Future prospects aim to evaluate the impact on stone decay of the clearing out of the temple from the forest in the 1920s.  相似文献   

Impact of nitrogenous fertilizers on carbonate dissolution in small agricultural catchments: Implications for weathering CO₂ uptake at regional and global scales   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Anne-Sophie Perrin  Anne Probst  Jean-Luc Probst 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2008,72(13):3105-3123

The goal of this study was to highlight the occurrence of an additional proton-promoted weathering pathway of carbonate rocks in agricultural areas where N-fertilizers are extensively spread, and to estimate its consequences on riverine alkalinity and uptake of CO₂ by weathering. We surveyed 25 small streams in the calcareous molassic Gascogne area located in the Garonne river basin (south-western France) that drain cultivated or forested catchments for their major element compositions during different hydrologic periods. Among these catchments, the Hay and the Montoussé, two experimental catchments, were monitored on a weekly basis. Studies in the literature from other small carbonate catchments in Europe were dissected in the same way. In areas of intensive agriculture, the molar ratio (Ca + Mg)/HCO₃ in surface waters is significantly higher (0.7 on average) than in areas of low anthropogenic pressure (0.5). This corresponds to a decrease in riverine alkalinity, which can reach 80% during storm events. This relative loss of alkalinity correlates well with the content in surface waters. In cultivated areas, the contribution of atmospheric/soil CO₂ to the total riverine alkalinity (CO_{2 ATM-SOIL}/HCO₃) is less than 50% (expected value for carbonate basins), and it decreases when the nitrate concentration increases. This loss of alkalinity can be attributed to the substitution of carbonic acid (natural weathering pathway) by protons produced by nitrification of N-fertilizers (anthropogenic weathering pathway) occurring in soils during carbonate dissolution. As a consequence of these processes, the alkalinity over the last 30 years shows a decreasing trend in the Save river (one of the main Garonne river tributaries, draining an agricultural catchment), while the nitrate and calcium plus magnesium contents are increasing.We estimated that the contribution of atmospheric/soil CO₂ to riverine alkalinity decreased by about 7-17% on average for all the studied catchments. Using these values, the deficit of CO₂ uptake can be estimated as up to 0.22-0.53 and 12-29 Tg¹ yr⁻¹ CO₂ on a country scale (France) and a global scale, respectively. These losses represent up to 5.7-13.4% and only 1.6-3.8% of the total CO₂ flux naturally consumed by carbonate dissolution, for France and on a global scale, respectively. Nevertheless, this loss of alkalinity relative to the Ca + Mg content relates to carbonate weathering by protons from N-fertilizers nitrification, which is a net source of CO₂ for the atmosphere. This anthropogenic CO₂ source is not negligible since it could reach 6-15% of CO₂ uptake by natural silicate weathering and could consequently partly counterbalance this natural CO₂ sink.  相似文献   

Fast kimberlite ascent rates estimated from hydrogen diffusion profiles in xenolithic mantle olivines from southern Africa   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Anne H. Peslier  Alan B. Woodland 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2008,72(11):2711-2722

Fourier transform infrared spectrometry (FTIR) analyses of olivines from peridotite xenoliths found in southern African kimberlites indicate 0 to 80 ppm H₂O concentrations. OH absorbance profiles across olivine grains show homogeneous H contents from core to edge for most samples. In one sample the olivines are H-free, while another has olivines characterized by lower H contents at the grain edges compared to the cores, indicating H loss during transport of the xenolith to the surface. Flat or near-flat H profiles place severe constraints on the duration of H loss from olivine grains, with implications for kimberlite magma ascent rates. Diffusion equations were used to estimate times of H loss of about 4 h for the sample with heterogeneous olivine H contents. Resulting kimberlite ascent rates are calculated to be 5-37 m s⁻¹ minimum, although these estimates are highly dependent on volatile contents and degassing behavior of the host kimberlite magma. Xenolithic olivines from alkali basalts generally have lower H contents and more pronounced H diffusion profiles than do those from kimberlites. This difference is likely caused by higher magma temperatures and lower ascent rates of alkali basalts compared to kimberlites.  相似文献   

Thermal evolution and physics of melt extraction on the ureilite parent body     

Lionel Wilson  Cyrena Anne Goodrich 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2008,72(24):6154-6176

We develop a physical model of the thermal history of the ureilite parent body (UPB) that numerically tracks the history of its heating, hydration, dehydration, partial melting and smelting as a function of its formation time and the initial values of its composition, formation temperature and water ice content. Petrologic and chemical data from the main group (non-polymict) ureilite meteorites, which sample the interior of the UPB between depths corresponding to pressures in the range 3-10 MPa, are used to constrain the model. We find that to achieve the ∼30% melting inferred for ureilites from all sampled depths, the UPB must have had a radius between ∼80 and ∼130 km and must have accreted about 0.55 Ma after CAI formation. Melting began in the body at ∼1 Ma after CAI, and the time at which 30% melting was reached varied with depth in the asteroid but was always between ∼4.5 and ∼5.8 Ma after CAI. The total rate at which melt was produced in the UPB varied from more than 100 m³ s⁻¹ in the very early stages of melting at ∼1 Ma after CAI to ∼5 m³ s⁻¹ between 2 and 3 Ma after CAI, decreasing to extremely small values as the end of melting was approached beyond ∼5 Ma. Although the initial period of high melt production occupied only a short time around 1 Ma after CAI, it corresponded to ∼half (16%) of total silicate melting, and all strictly basaltic (i.e. plagioclase-saturated) melts must have been produced during this period.A very efficient melt transport network, consisting of a hierarchy of veins and larger pathways (dikes), developed quickly at the start of melting, ensuring rapid (timescales of months) transport of any single parcel of melt to shallow levels, thus ensuring that chemical interaction between melts and the rocks through which they subsequently passed was negligible. Volatile (mainly carbon monoxide) production due to smelting began at the start of silicate melting in the shallowest parts of the UPB and at later times at greater depths. Except at the very start and very end of melting, the volatile content of the melts produced was always high - generally between 15 and 35 mass % - and most of the melt produced was erupted at the surface of the UPB with speeds well in excess of the escape velocity and was lost into space. However, we show that 30% melting at the 3 MPa pressure level was only possible if ∼15% of the total melt produced in the asteroid was retained as a small number (∼5) of very extensive, sill-like intrusions centered at a depth of ∼7 km below the surface, near the base of the ∼8 km thick outer crust of the asteroid that was maintained at temperatures below the basalt solidus by conductive heat loss to the surface. The horizontal extents of these sills occupied about 75% of the surface area of the UPB, and the sills acted as buffers between the steady supply of melt from depth and the intermittent explosive eruption of the melt into space. We infer that samples from these intrusions are preserved as the rare feldspathic (loosely basaltic) clasts in polymict ureilites, and show that the cooling histories of the sills are consistent with these clasts reaching isotopic closure at ∼5 Ma after CAI, as given by ²⁶Al-²⁶Mg, ⁵³Mn-⁵³Cr and Pb-Pb age dates.  相似文献   

The Dynamics of Covering Behaviour in Dominant Echinoid Populations from American and European West Coasts     

Emma Verling  Anne C. Crook  & David K. A. Barnes 《Marine Ecology》2004,25(3):191-206

Abstract.  The so-called 'covering behaviour' of echinoids is known to vary with habitat according to the types of covering items available, but the full extent of the role played by habitat characteristics in this behaviour is not known. Moreover, whether or not different species inhabiting similar environmental conditions and habitats also show similar patterns of this particular behaviour has yet to be investigated. In this study, two prominent west coast echinoid species, Paracentrotus lividus and Strongylocentrotus purpuratus , were examined with respect to covering behaviour and spatial organisation. Populations of both species are found in exposed intertidal zones, occupying boreholes within tidepools. Important similarities were found in the spatial organisation of both species' populations, with lowest densities in upper shore pools. However, the size distributions of the two populations differed significantly; P. lividus within upper shore pools were significantly larger than those in mid or lower shore pools, whereas S. purpuratus on the lower shore were significantly larger than those at other shore heights. We found significant between-species variability in covering item use, although the number of covering items available at both sites was not significantly different. For example, greater densities of covering items were used by P. lividus than by S. purpuratus . We also found that the percent of echinoid surface area covered varied significantly in space for both species. These data emphasise the complex and multifaceted nature of covering behaviour, but most importantly, they also strongly suggest that habitat characteristics can only partly explain the extent of this behavioural variability amongst echinoid species.  相似文献   

Aryl hydrocarbon hydroxylase activity in a population of brown bullhead (Ictalurus nebulosus) environmentally exposed to polycyclic hydrocarbons     

Jodon Traci Anne  Paul C. Baumann  Peter F. Landrum 《Marine environmental research》1988,24(1-4)

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