Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses     

Murphy  Sarah J.  Washington  Richard  Downing  Thomas E.  Martin  Randall V.  Ziervogel  Gina  Preston  Anthony  Todd  Martin  Butterfield  Ruth  Briden  Jim 《Natural Hazards》2001,23(2-3):171-196

One of the most promising developments for early warning of climate hazards is seasonal climate forecasting. Already forecasts are operational in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly for droughts and floods associated with ENSO events. Prospects for further development of seasonal forecasting for a range of climatichazards are reviewed, illustrated with case studies in Africa, Australia, the U.S.A. and Europe. A critical evaluation of the utility of seasonal forecasts centres on vulnerability, communicationchannels, and effective responses. In contrast to short-term prediction, seasonal forecasts raise new issues of preparedness and the use of information.  相似文献   

High-Mg potassic rocks from Taiwan: implications for the genesis of orogenic potassic lavas   总被引：15，自引：0，他引：15  

Sun-Lin Chung  Kuo-Lung Wang  Anthony J. Crawford  V. S. Kamenetsky  Cheng-Hong Chen  Ching-Ying Lan  Chang-Hwa Chen 《Lithos》2001,59(4):153-170

Taiwan is an active mountain belt formed by oblique collision between the Luzon arc and the Asian continent. Regardless of the ongoing collision in central and southern Taiwan, a post-collisional extension regime has developed since the Plio–Pleistocene in the northern part of this orogen, and led to generation of the Northern Taiwan Volcanic Zone. Emplaced at 0.2 Ma in the southwest of the Volcanic Zone, lavas from the Tsaolingshan volcano are highly magnesian (MgO≈15 wt.%) and potassic (K₂O≈5 wt.%; K₂O/Na₂O≈1.6–3.0). Whereas these basic rocks (SiO₂≈48 wt.%) have relatively low Al₂O₃≈12 wt.%, total Fe₂O₃≈7.5 wt.% and CaO≈7.2 wt.%, they are extremely enriched in large ion lithophile elements (LILE, e.g. Cs, Rb, Ba, Th and U). The Rb and Cs abundances, >1000 and 120 ppm, respectively, are among the highest known from terrestrial rocks. In addition, these rocks are enriched in light rare earth elements (LREE), depleted in high field strength elements (HFSE), and display a positive Pb spike in the primitive mantle-normalized variation diagram. Their REE distribution patterns mark with slight Eu negative anomalies (Eu/Eu*≈0.90–0.84), and Sr and Nd isotope ratios are uniform (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr≈0.70540–0.70551; ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd≈0.51268–0.51259). Olivine, the major phenocryst phase, shows high Fo contents (90.4±1.8; 1σ deviation), which are in agreement with the whole rock Mg-values (83–80). Spinel inclusions in olivine are characterized by high Cr/Cr+Al ratios (0.94–0.82) and have compositions similar to those from boninites that originate from highly refractory peridotites. Such petrochemical characteristics are comparable to the Group I ultrapotassic rocks defined by Foley et al. [Earth-Sci. Rev. 24 (1987) 81], such as orogenic lamproites from central Italy, Span and Tibet. We therefore suggest that the Tsaolingshan lavas resulted from a phlogopite-bearing harzburgitic source in the lithospheric mantle that underwent a recent metasomatism by the nearby Ryukyu subduction zone processes. The lavas exhibit unique incompatible trace element ratios, with Rb/Cs≈8, Ba/Rb≈1, Ce/Pb≈2, Th/U≈1 and Nb/U≈0.8, which are significantly lower than the continental crust values and those of most mantle-derived magmas. Nonmagmatic enrichment in the mantle source is therefore required. Based on published experimental data, two subduction-related metasomatic components, i.e., slab-released hydrous fluid and subducted sediment, are proposed, and the former is considered to be more pervasive for causing the extraordinary trace element ratios observed. Our observations lend support to the notion that dehydration from subducting slabs at convergent margins, as a continuing process through geologic time, can account for the fractionation of these elemental pairs between the Earth's crust and mantle.  相似文献   

钢筋混凝土框架砖填充墙结构抗震性能的研究   总被引：12，自引：5，他引：12  

关国雄  夏敬谦 《地震工程与工程振动》1996,16(1):87-99

本文介绍了一个１／３比例框架填充墙结构模型模拟地震振动台试验，研究了结构动力特性与反应特征，提出了钢筋混凝土框架砖填充墙结构层间刚度与抗力的简化估计方法和公式，同时进行了多层框架填充墙结构的弹塑性动力反应分析并结合试验模型将计算结果与试验结果进行比较。  相似文献   

Two-dimensional modelling of some CFC replacement compounds     

Oliver Wild  Oliver V. Rattigan  Roderic L. Jones  John A. Pyle  R. Anthony Cox 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1996,25(2):167-199

The Cambridge 2-D Eulerian model has been used to study the potential atmospheric distributions and lifetimes of a number of CFC replacement compounds and their degradation products. The study has focused on HFC 134a and HCFCs 123, 141b and 142b and the major products formed by their atmospheric degradation. The loss of these compounds and their products by hydroxyl radical attack, photolysis and in-cloud hydrolysis have been investigated. The study has shown that HCFCs 141b and 142b have sufficiently long lifetimes to enter the stratosphere in significant quantities, where degradation leads to an increase in the total stratospheric chlorine concentration. The study has also highlighted areas where further experimental work would be valuable, in particular characterisation of the product channels for the degradation reactions and determination of the removal rates of the products in the aqueous phase.  相似文献   

Holocene Environmental Change and River-Mouth Sedimentation in the Baie des Anges, French Riviera     

Michel Dubar  Edward J. Anthony 《Quaternary Research》1995,43(3)

River mouths on the steep, high-relief coast of the French Riviera exhibit thick sequences of Holocene marine, estuarine, deltaic, and river channel-floodplain sediments that overlie basal fluvial Pleistocene gravel. Gravel is uncommon in most of the early to middle Holocene aggradational-progradational marine, estuarine, deltaic sediments, despite an ample supply from rock units in the steep adjoining uplands. River-mouth gravel is common only in late Holocene river channels and in barrier beaches perched on finer-grained nearshore sediments. Neither downslope grain-size fining on alluvial fans nor sediment stacking patterns during sea-level (base-level) rise readily account for the lack of early to middle Holocene gravel in the river-mouth sediment wedges. Holocene sea-level rise led to the storage of fine-grained sediments in shallow marine, estuarine, and deltaic environments in the present coastal zone. We infer that humid temperate conditions, a dense forest cover, landscape stabilization, and a regular quiescent river flow regime associated with the Atlantic climatic optimum limited gravel supply in the adjoining catchments and gravel entrainment downstream during the early Holocene. Sea-level stabilization in the middle and late Holocene coincided with a marked change in bioclimatic conditions toward the present Mediterranean-type regime, which is characterized by a less dense forest cover, soil erosion, and episodic catastrophic floods. The late Holocene was thus a time of downstream bedload channel aggradation, fine-grained floodplain and paludal sedimentation, and seaward flushing of clasts leading to the formation and consolidation of the gravel barrier beaches that bound the rivermouths and embayments.  相似文献   

Book reviews     

Mark S. T. Bukowinski  Philip E. Wannamaker  Manfred Koch  Yukio Fujinawa  Dr. Pradeep Talwani  D. Möhlmann  Andrew H. Knoll  Lucia Lovison-Golob  Krzysztof Haman  Hanna Pawłowska  Henryk Piwkowski  Dr. Anthony Dore  Nguyen Xuan Huy  Edward R. Cook  Jan Błecki  Jacek Leliwa-Kopystynski  Magdalena Sroczynska-Kozuchowska 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1993,140(1):139-177

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The relationship between geothermal gradient and the composition of granitic magmas in orogenic belts     

Anthony Hall 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1971,32(3):186-192

A comparison has been made between the average compositions of the granites in the Variscan, Caledonian, and Alpine orogenic belts of western Europe. Their respective compositions lie near the isobaric minima in the system Q-Or-Ab-H₂O for successively higher water pressures, whereas metamorphic facies series indicate that the three orogenic belts developed under successively lower geothermal gradients. These relationships are consistent with an origin of the granitic magmas by partial melting in the crust.  相似文献   

Average chemical composition of the lunar surface     

Anthony L. Turkevich 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1973,8(3):365-367

The available data on the chemical composition of the lunar surface at eleven sites (3 Surveyor, 5 Apollo and 3 Luna) are used to estimate the amounts of principal chemical elements (those present in more than about 0.5% by atom) in average lunar surface material. The terrae of the Moon differ from the maria in having much less iron and titanium and appreciably more aluminum and calcium.Paper dedicated to Prof. Harold C. Urey on the occasion of his 80th birthday on 29 April 1973.  相似文献   

Finite element models for rock fracture mechanics     

Anthony R. Ingraffea  Francois E. Heuze 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》1980,4(1):25-43

A finite element model for the prediction of discrete fracture propagation in rock structures loaded in compression is presented. The model integrates any one of three theories for mixed-mode fracture initiation; it contains an energy balance algorithm for predicting crack increment length, and incorporates recent developments in finite element stress-intensity factor computation. The predictions of the model are compared with the observed fracture response of a real rock structure. Results show that the model accurately predicts both stable and unstable fracture progagations observed experimentally.  相似文献   

Comparison of the analytical results from the surveyor,Apollo, and Luna missions     

Anthony L. Turkevich 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1972,5(3-4):411-421

The principal chemical element composition and inferred mineralogy of the powdered lunar surface material at seven mare and one terra sites on the Moon are compared. The mare compositions are all similar to one another and comparable to those of terrestrial ocean ridge basalts except in having higher titanium and much lower sodium contents than the latter. These analyses suggest that most, if not all, lunar maria have this chemical composition and are derived from rocks with an average density of 3.19 g cm^–3. Mare Tranquillitatis differs from the other maria in having twice the titanium content of the others.The chemical composition of the single highland site studied (Surveyor 7) is distinctly different from that of any of the maria in having much lower amounts of titanium and iron and larger amounts of aluminium and calcium. Confirmation of these general characteristics of lunar highland material has come from recent observations by the Apollo 15 Orbiter. The inferred mineralogy is 45 mole percent high anorthite plagioclase and the parent rocks have an estimated density of 2.94 g cm^–3. The Surveyor 7 chemical composition is the principal contributor to present estimates of the overall chemical composition of the lunar surface.Presented at the NATO Advanced Study Institute on Lunar Studies, Patras, Greece, September 14–25, 1971. This paper is an expanded and updated version of a paper presented at the Apollo 12 Lunar Science Conference, Houston, Texas, January 11–14, 1971, and published in the Proceedings of this Conference (Turkevich, 1971).  相似文献