BET_VH: exploring the influence of natural uncertainties on long-term hazard from tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei (Italy)   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Jacopo Selva  Antonio Costa  Warner Marzocchi  Laura Sandri 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2010,72(6):717-733

In this paper, we explore the effects of the intrinsic uncertainties upon long-term volcanic hazard by analyzing tephra fall hazard at Campi Flegrei, Italy, using the BET_VH model described in Marzocchi et al. (Bull Volcanol, 2010). The results obtained show that volcanic hazard based on the weighted average of all possible eruptive settings (i.e. size classes and vent locations) is significantly different from an analysis based on a single reference setting, as commonly used in volcanic hazard practice. The long-term hazard map for tephra fall at Campi Flegrei obtained here accounts for a wide spectrum of uncertainties which are usually neglected, largely reducing the bias intrinsically introduced by the choice of a specific reference setting. We formally develop and apply a general method to recursively integrate simulations from different models which have different characteristics in terms of spatial coverage, resolution and physical details. This outcome of simulations will be eventually merged with field data through the use of the BET_VH model.  相似文献   

Accuracy assessment of the Mexican National Forest Inventory map: A study in four ecogeographical areas     

Stéphane Couturier  Jean‐François Mas  Erna López‐Granados  Jorge Benítez  Valdemar Coria‐Tapia  Álvaro Vega‐Guzmán 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2010,31(2):163-179

The accuracy of the Mexican National Forest Inventory (NFI) map is derived in four distinct ecogeographical areas, using an assessment design tailored for the project. A main achievement of the design was to integrate the high diversity of classes encompassed at the most detailed subcommunity level of the classification scheme within a cost‐controlled statistically sound assessment. A hybrid double sampling strategy was applied to the 2.5 million‐ha study area. A total of 5955 reference sites were verified against their NFI map label. The availability of detailed quasi‐synchronous reference data for the 2000 Landsat‐derived NFI and the high diversity of mapped classes allowed a careful thematic analysis on the selected regions, relevant for national extrapolation. Global accuracy estimates of 64–78 per cent were registered among the four ecogeographical areas (two with mainly temperate climate and the other two with mainly tropical climate), with the lower accuracy levels found in areas more densely covered with forests. According to the estimates, the NFI map tends to underestimate the presence of temperate forest (especially oak) and overestimate the presence of tropical forest in the areas investigated. The analysis of confusions reveals difficulties in unambiguously interpreting or labelling forests with secondary vegetation, herbaceous and/or shrub‐like vegetation as well as distinguishing between aquatic vegetation types. The design proved useful from the perspective of accuracy assessments of regional maps in biodiverse regions.  相似文献   

Sensitivity analysis of CDOM spectral slope in artificial and natural samples: an application in the central eastern Mediterranean Basin     

Luca Bracchini  Antonio Tognazzi  Arduino Massimo Dattilo  Franco Decembrini  Claudio Rossi  Steven Arthur Loiselle 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2010,72(4):485-498

In the past two decades, optical properties of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in marine environments have been extensively studied. Many of these studies report CDOM properties for the offshore environment where this complex mixture of optically active compounds is strongly diluted. Nevertheless, autochthonous and allochthonous sources have been identified and sinks related to photodegradation and bacterial activity have been demonstrated. The calculation of the spectral slope of the CDOM absorption curve has been proven to be useful and is often reported. However, a rigorous uncertainty analysis of the slope calculation is rarely reported. In this paper, we propose a method to evaluate the uncertainty of CDOM spectral slope calculated between 270 and 400 nm, using both naturally sampled and artificial solutions. We use these results to study the ultra-oligotrophic waters of the Mediterranean Sea (central eastern basin), where little is known about CDOM spatial distribution. We show that dilutions of both artificial and natural samples produce a Gaussian distribution of spectral slopes, indicating that consistent values may be determined, with a typical uncertainty of ±0.0004 nm⁻¹ when absorption at 300 nm was greater then 0.1 m⁻¹ (0.1 m pathlength). Comparing the distribution of spectral slopes from central eastern basin samples to a Gaussian distribution, we show differences between measurements that were significantly different. These values allow us to distinguish possible sources (algal derived CDOM), sinks (e.g. photo-bleaching) at different depths. We propose a subdivision of CDOM compounds into refractory and semilabile/refractory pools and evaluate the CDOM spectral slope of algal derived CDOM released at or near deep chlorophyll maximum.  相似文献   

Automatic Delineation of Capture Zones for Pump and Treat Systems: A Case Study in Piedmont,Italy     

Tiziana Tosco  Antonio Di Molfetta  Rajandrea Sethi 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2010,30(2):46-52

The design of a pump and treat (P&T) system for the hydraulic control of a contaminated plume in a confined aquifer is presented here. Being the system designed for the emergency containment of a nonaqueous phase liquid plume, the evaluation of the system’s short-term efficiency was considered an important issue. For this reason, both time-related and ultimate capture zones were defined. They were traced using the automatic protection area (APA) model, a capture-zone delineation tool based on a hybrid forward-backward particle tracking algorithm, that provides an automatic post-processing encirclement of capture zones. Two simple indexes are here proposed for the evaluation of the performance of the hydraulic barrier, that is, the efficacy and efficiency indexes, calculated from the capture areas provided by APA. The discharge rates of the wells were dimensioned applying the APA algorithm, maximizing efficacy and efficiency of the barrier. Results proved both visually (via plotting of capture zones) and numerically (via calculation of the indexes) that the P&T system can provide a complete capture of the contaminated area and minimizes the volume of extracted water. Consequently, the APA algorithm was proved to be a useful tool in capture zone delineation. As a future perspective, it could be coupled with the real-time measurement of pumping rates and water levels and be implemented as a part of a tuning tool for the management of the hydraulic barrier.  相似文献   

Sky luminance distribution in Pamplona (Spain) during the summer period     

J.L. Torres  M. de Blas  A. García  A. Gracia  A. de Francisco 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2010,72(5-6):382-388

In this work the outdoor daylight conditions in Pamplona (South Europe) during the summer period have been studied. The selected sky type (from fifteen standards) at a given moment is the one exhibiting the lowest RMSD when comparing the theoretical and experimental luminance distributions in the sky hemisphere. Two year data of luminance distribution registered every 10 min in 145 positions of the sky hemisphere have been used for selecting the sky type. The most frequent sky type in Pamplona is V.5 (cloudless polluted with a broad solar corona), with an occurrence of 29.5%. This result coincides with the one observed in a previous study in Athens.Six types of sky (V.5, IV.4, III.4, III.3, V.4 y II.2) out of the fifteen standards become practically the 80% of all the studied ones. Regarding a possible use in daylight climate studies, the frequency of occurrence of the fifteen types of sky for fourteen solar elevation intervals has been included.  相似文献   

Strong ground-motion relations for Mexican interplate earthquakes     

Danny Arroyo  Daniel García  Mario Ordaz  Mauricio Alexander Mora  Shri Krishna Singh 《Journal of Seismology》2010,14(4):769-785

We derive strong ground-motion relations for horizontal components of pseudo-acceleration response spectra from Mexican interplate earthquakes at rock sites (NEHRP B class) in the forearc region. The functional form is obtained from the analytical solution of a circular finite-source model. For the regression analysis we use a recently proposed multivariate Bayesian technique. The resulting model has similar accuracy as those models derived from regional and worldwide subduction-zone databases. However, there are significant differences in the estimations computed from our model and other models. First, our results reveal that attenuation in Mexico tends to be stronger than that of worldwide relations, especially for large events. Second, our model predicts ground motions for large earthquakes at close distances to the source that are considerably larger than the estimations of global models. Lack of data in this range makes it difficult to identify the most appropriate model for this scenario. Nevertheless, according to the available data at the city of Acapulco, our model seems to estimate seismic hazard more adequately than the other models. These new relations may be useful in computing seismic hazard for the Mexican forearc region, where no similar equations had been yet proposed.  相似文献   

Guest editorial: Structural seismic safety assessment     

Carlos Sousa Oliveira  Aníbal Costa  Raimundo Delgado 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2010,8(1):1-3

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Aminostratigraphy and thermoluminescence dating of coastal aeolianites and the later Quaternary history of a failed delta: The River Murray mouth region,South Australia     

Colin V. Murray-Wallace  Robert P. Bourman  John R. Prescott  Frances Williams  David M. Price  Antonio P. Belperio 《Quaternary Geochronology》2010,5(1):28-49

A geochronological framework for the sequential development of coastal barrier aeolianite complexes in the mouth region of the River Murray, Australia's largest river system is presented based on amino acid racemization and thermoluminescence dating. The sedimentary successions represent a foreshortened and condensed sequence of coastal barriers compared with those of the Coorong Coastal Plain in southern South Australia where the barrier complexes are more widely separated in response to tectonic uplift. The barriers have formed during interglacial sea-level highstands and are correlatives of genetically equivalent landforms of the Coorong Coastal Plain. Thermoluminescence dating and the extent of amino acid racemization in aeolianite ‘whole-rock’ sediment samples, reveal a general increase in age of the barriers landwards from the modern coastline. In detail, however, the individual barriers represent composite structures having formed in more than one interglaciation, due to the reoccupation of Pleistocene shoreline positions during sea-level highstands of similar amplitude, in a zone of gradual basin subsidence. The most seaward Pleistocene aeolianite at Surfer Beach is of interstadial age (Marine Isotope Stage 5c, 105 ± 5 ka; MIS 5c), and correlates with the Robe Range of the Coorong Coastal Plain. The last interglacial shoreline (130 ± 15 ka; MIS 5e) is particularly well-defined in the River Murray mouth region. It is represented by a complex association of coastal parabolic dunes superimposed on a transverse dune system, which runs parallel with the former coastline, and also includes associated estuarine, lagoonal and open ocean beach facies. Landward of the last interglacial succession are distinct barriers relating to the penultimate interglaciation (215 ± 35 ka; MIS 7), as well as earlier interglaciations (350 ± 65 ka; MIS 9 or 11 and 470 ± 70 ka; MIS 11 or 13). The coastal barriers have been successively breached by the ancestral River Murray at times of lower sea level during glacial cycles. Former mouths of the River Murray during interglacial sea-level highstands are likely to have existed near Tauwitchere Island during MIS 7, and between Goolwa and Hindmarsh Island and near the southern-most part of Lake Albert during the last interglacial (MIS 5e). The River Murray mouth region represents a failed delta as the limited sediment brought to this area since late middle Pleistocene time has been either rapidly incorporated within aeolian deposits during sea-level highstands, or transported to the edge of the Lacepede Shelf during glacial maxima. The Holocene and modern River Murray has not established a marine delta, but deposits its load in the settling basins of the terminal lakes. Only a small digitate delta has formed where the river enters Lake Alexandrina.  相似文献   

A multi-scale hierarchical framework for developing understanding of river behaviour to support river management     

A. M. Gurnell  M. Rinaldi  B. Belletti  S. Bizzi  B. Blamauer  G. Braca  A. D. Buijse  M. Bussettini  B. Camenen  F. Comiti  L. Demarchi  D. García de Jalón  M. González del Tánago  R. C. Grabowski  I. D. M. Gunn  H. Habersack  D. Hendriks  A. J. Henshaw  M. Klösch  B. Lastoria  A. Latapie  P. Marcinkowski  V. Martínez-Fernández  E. Mosselman  J. O. Mountford  L. Nardi  T. Okruszko  M. T. O’Hare  M. Palma  C. Percopo  N. Surian  W. van de Bund  C. Weissteiner  L. Ziliani 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2016,78(1):1-16

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Surface dynamic deformation estimates from local seismicity: the Itoiz reservoir,Spain     

Miguel A. Santoyo  Patricia Martínez-Garzón  Antonio García-Jerez  Francisco Luzón 《Journal of Seismology》2016,20(3):1021-1039

We analyze the ground motion time histories due to the local seismicity near the Itoiz reservoir to estimate the near-source, surface 3D displacement gradients and dynamic deformations. The seismic data were obtained by a semipermanent broadband and accelerometric network located on surface and at underground sites. The dynamic deformation field was calculated by two different methodologies: first, by the seismo-geodetic method using the data from a three-station microarray located close to the dam, and second, by single station estimates of the displacement gradients. The dynamic deformations obtained from both methods were compared and analyzed in the context of the local free-field effects. The shallow 1D velocity structure was estimated from the seismic data by modeling the body wave travel times. Time histories obtained from both methods result quite similar in the time window of body wave arrivals. The strain misfits between methods vary from 1.4 to 35.0 % and rotational misfits vary from 2.5 to 36.0 %. Amplitudes of displacement gradients vary in the range of 10^?8 to 10^?7 strains. From these results, a new scaling analysis by numerical modeling is proposed in order to estimate the peak dynamic deformations for different magnitudes, up to the expected maximum M _w in the region (M5.5). Peak dynamic deformations due to local M _w5.5 earthquakes would reach amplitudes of 10^?5 strain and 10^?3 radians at the Itoiz dam. The single station method shows to be an adequate option for the analysis of local seismicity, where few three-component stations are available. The results obtained here could help to extend the applicability of these methodologies to other sites of engineering interest.  相似文献