Multi-time-scale analysis of hydrological drought forecasting using support vector regression (SVR) and artificial neural networks (ANN)     

Moslem?Borji  Arash?MalekianEmail author  Ali?Salajegheh  Mehrnoosh?Ghadimi 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(19):725

In this study, the preprocessing of the gamma test was used to select the appropriate input combination into two models including the support vector regression (SVR) model and artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the stream flow drought index (SDI) of different timescales (i.e., 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months) in Latian watershed, Iran, which is one of the most important sources of water for the large metropolitan Tehran. The variables used included SDI _t , SDI _t ? 1, SDI _t ? 2, SDI _t ? 3, and SDI _t ? 4 monthly delays. Two variables including SDI _t and SDI _t ? 1 with lower gamma values were identified as the most optimal combination of variables in all drought timescales. The results showed that the gamma test was able to correctly identify the right combination for the forecasting of 6, 9, and 12 months SDI using the ANN model. Also, the gamma test was considered in selecting the appropriate inputs for identifying the values of 9, 12, and 24 months SDI in SVR. The support vector machine approach showed a better efficiency in the forecast of long-term droughts compared to the artificial neural network. In total, among forecasts made for 30 scenarios, the support vector machine model only in scenario 3 of SDI₃, scenario 1 of SDI₆, and scenarios 2 and 3 of SDI₂₄ represented poorer efficiency compared to the artificial neural network (MLP layer), but in other scenarios, the results of SVR had better efficiency.  相似文献   

Spatial characteristics and temporal trends of meteorological and hydrological droughts in northwestern Iran     

Majid Kazemzadeh  Arash Malekian 《Natural Hazards》2016,80(1):191-210

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Pressurized Poroelastic Inclusions: Short-term and Long-term Asymptotic Solutions     

Houman Bedayat  Arash Dahi Taleghani 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2015,48(6):2359-2367

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Distribution of brine in grain boundaries during static recrystallization in wet, synthetic halite: insight from broad ion beam sectioning and SEM observation at cryogenic temperature     

Guillaume Desbois  Janos L. Urai  Peter A. Kukla  Uwe Wollenberg  Fabián Pérez-Willard  Zsolt Radí  Sandor Riholm 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2012,163(1):19-31

We report observations from room temperature static recrystallization experiments (annealing times from minutes to year) of cold-pressed, synthetic, coarse-grained, wet sodium chloride, prepared by broad ion beam polishing and SEM observations at cryogenic temperature to observe directly the brine in grain boundaries. At all stages of annealing, the majority of the brine in the samples is connected in 2D sections along grain boundaries. Another part of the brine is in isolated brine inclusion arrays along grain boundaries and in brine inclusions left behind by migrating brine-filled grain boundaries. Most of these boundaries are mobile because the aggregate is coarsening. We interpret that the boundaries without observable brine films (<15 nm) and brine inclusion arrays are healed and immobile. Evolution of grain boundary structure involves three major processes. First, dissolution on one side of the grain boundary and precipitation on the other side, resulting in grain boundary migration. Second, the development of facets formed by low-index crystallographic planes of the grains bounding the grain boundary brine. When both sides of a grain boundary are able to develop low-index facets in a thick brine film, the resulting impingement boundary is interpreted to be immobile and may prevent the new grain from migrating into a deformed neighbor. When one side of a faceted boundary consists of low-index crystallographic planes and the other side passively follows this faceted shape along irrational surfaces, the boundary is mobile. Third, the healing of grain boundary brine films, producing solid–solid grain boundaries without resolvable brine films.  相似文献   

Introducing a Comprehensive Data Reduction and Uncertainty Propagation Algorithm for U‐Th Geochronometry with Extraction Chromatography and Isotope Dilution MC‐ICP‐MS     

Ali Pourmand  François L. H. Tissot  Monica Arienzo  Arash Sharifi 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2014,38(2):129-148

We present an open‐source algorithm in Mathematica application (Wolfram Research) with a transparent data reduction and Monte Carlo simulation of systematic and random uncertainties for U‐Th geochronometry by multi‐collector ICP‐MS. Uranium and thorium were quantitatively separated from matrix elements through a single U/TEVA extraction chromatography step. A rigorous calibrator‐sample bracketing routine was adopted using CRM‐112A and IRMM‐035 standard solutions, doped with an IRMM‐3636a ²³³U/²³⁶U ‘double‐spike’ to account for instrumental mass bias and deviations of measured isotope ratios from certified values. The mean of ²³⁴U/²³⁸U and ²³⁰Th/²³²Th in the standard solutions varied within 0.42 and 0.25‰ (permil) of certified ratios, respectively, and were consistent with literature values within uncertainties. Based on multiple dissolutions with lithium metaborate flux fusion, U and Th concentrations in USGS BCR‐2 CRM were updated to 1739 ± 2 and 5987 ± 50 ng g^?1 (95% CI), respectively. The measurement reproducibility of our analytical technique was evaluated by analysing six aliquots of an in‐house reference material, prepared by homogenising a piece of speleothem (CC3A) from Cathedral Cave, Utah, which returned a mean age of 21483 ± 63 years (95% CI, 2.9‰). Replicate analysis of ten samples from CC3A was consistent with ages previously measured at the University of Minnesota by single‐collector ICP‐MS within uncertainties.  相似文献   

Hydrodynamic behavior of Kangan gas-capped deep confined aquifer in Iran     

Arash Nadri  Rahim Bagheri  Ezzat Raeisi  Seyyed Shahaboddin Ayatollahi  Kamal Bolandparvaz-Jahromi 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(4):1925-1936

The Kangan aquifer (KA) is located beneath the Kangan gas reservoir (KGR), 2,885 m below the ground surface. The gas reservoir formations are classified into nine non-gas reservoir units and eight gas reservoir units based on the porosity, water and gas saturation, lithology, and gas production potential using the logs of 36 production wells. The gas reservoir units are composed of limestone and dolomite, whereas the non-gas reservoir units consist of compacted limestone and dolomite, gypsum and shale. The lithology of KA is the same as KGR with a total dissolved solid of 333,000 mg/l. The source of aquifer water is evaporated seawater. The static pressure on the Gas–Water Contact (GWC) was 244 atm before gas production, but it has continuously decreased during 15 years of gas production, resulting in a 50 m uprising of the GWC and the expansion of KA water and intergranular water inside the gas reservoir. The general flow direction of the KA is toward the northern coast of the Persian Gulf due to the migration of water to the overlying formations via a trust fault. The KA is a gas-capped deep confined aquifer (GCDCA) with special characteristics differing from a shallow confined aquifer. The main characteristics of a GCDCA are unsaturated intergranular water below the confining layers, no direct contact of the water table (GWC) with the confining layers, no vertical flow via the cap rock, permanent uprising of the GWC during gas production, and permanent descend of GWC during water exploitation.  相似文献   

Drought Forecasting in a Semi-arid Watershed Using Climate Signals:a Neuro-fuzzy Modeling Approach   总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3  

Bahram CHOUBIN  Shahram KHALIGHI-SIGAROODI  Arash MALEKIAN  Sajjad AHMAD  Pedram ATTAROD 《山地科学学报》2014,(6):1593-1605

Large-scale annual climate indices were used to forecast annual drought conditions in the Maharlu-Bakhtegan watershed,located in Iran,using a neuro-fuzzy model.The Standardized Precipitation Index（SPI） was used as a proxy for drought conditions.Among the 45 climate indices considered,eight identified as most relevant were the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation（AMO）,Atlantic Meridional Mode（AMM）,the Bivariate ENSO Time series（BEST）,the East Central Tropical Pacific Surface Temperature（NINO 3.4）,the Central Tropical Pacific Surface Temperature（NINO 4）,the North Tropical Atlantic Index（NTA）,the Southern Oscillation Index（SOI）,and the Tropical Northern Atlantic Index（TNA）.These indices accounted for 81% of the variance in the Principal Components Analysis（PCA） method.The Atlantic surface temperature（SST：Atlantic） had an inverse relationship with SPI,and the AMM index had the highest correlation.Drought forecasts of neuro-fuzzy model demonstrate better prediction at a two-year lag compared to a stepwise regression model.  相似文献   

Fracture closure modes during flowback from hydraulic fractures     

Arash Dahi Taleghani  Yuzhe Cai  Amade Pouya 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2020,44(12):1695-1704

Flowback analysis recently has been considered as a potential tool for assessing induced fractures through corresponding pressure analyses and rate transient analysis. In this paper, we study fracture closure mechanisms during the flowback of fracturing fluid after hydraulic fracturing treatments. Although it is known that flowback can be significantly affected by the geometry of the fractures and closure stress, there has not been any effort to understand the problem from the geomechanical point of view; rather, available studies assume that a fracture closes uniformly with constant fracture compressibility. The coupled geomechanics and fluid flow model presented in this paper help to elucidate how geostresses may affect fracturing fluid recovery under different conditions. We perform a scaling analysis to formulate the occurrence of different fracture closure modes and then use numerical analyses to verify our scaling parameters. The factors governing the flowback process include the mechanical and petrophysical properties of the rock as well as preexisting discontinuities such as natural fractures. Three different closure modes for fracture networks are described and numerically verified. The occurrence of each mode can dramatically affect fracturing fluid recovery. The role of fluid leakoff into the formation, fractures conductivity, and drawdown strategy are examined for each fracture closure scenario.  相似文献   

Enhanced nonlinear static analysis with the drift pushover procedure for tall buildings     

Farhad Behnamfar  Sayed Mehdi Taherian  Arash Sahraei 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2016,14(11):3025-3046

In this study a new method for nonlinear static analysis based on the relative displacements of stories is proposed that is able to be implemented in a single stage analysis and considers the effects of an arbitrary number of higher modes. The method is called the extended drift pushover analysis procedure (EDPA). To define the lateral load pattern, values of the relative displacements of stories are calculated using the elastic modal analysis and the modal combination factors introduced. For determining the combination factors, six different approaches are examined. Buildings evaluated in this study consist of four special steel moment-resisting frames with 10–30 stories. Responses including relative displacements of stories, story shear forces and rotation of plastic hinges in each story are calculated using the proposed approaches in addition to modal pushover analysis and nonlinear dynamic time history analyses. The nonlinear dynamic analysis is implemented using ten consistent earthquake records that have been scaled with regard to ASCE7-10. Distribution of response errors of story shears and plastic hinge rotations show that a major part of error corresponds to the second half of the buildings studied. Thus, the mentioned responses are corrected systematically. The final results of this study show that implementing the EDPA procedure using the third approach of this research is able to effectively overcome the limitations of both the traditional and the modal pushover analyses methods and predict the seismic demands of tall buildings with good accuracy.  相似文献   

Seismic behavior of steel buildings with out‐of‐plumb          下载免费PDF全文

Ali A. Rad  Gregory A. MacRae  Trevor Z. Yeow  Desmond K. Bull 《地震工程与结构动力学》2015,44(14):2575-2588

A structure that has a permanent offset from a true vertical line is commonly referred to as being ‘out‐of‐plumb’. Out‐of‐plumb may result from construction tolerances or post‐earthquake permanent deformations in steel buildings. This paper quantifies the displacements of buildings with out‐of‐plumb in subsequent seismic events by means of inelastic dynamic time history analysis. Structures considered have different structural heights, force design reduction factors (R), and target inter‐story drifts. It is shown that buildings with greater out of plumb and force design reduction factor have larger normalized peak inter‐story drift ratio and ratio of residual‐to‐peak drift. Also, the ratio of residual‐to‐peak drift was not strongly dependent on structural height or design drift. A design procedure and example provided, based on the results obtained, show how peak and residual inter‐story drift ratio can be estimated. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献