The shortage of surface water in arid and semiarid regions has led to the more use of the groundwater resources. In these areas, the groundwater is essential for activities such as water supply and irrigation. One of the most important stages in sustainable yield of groundwater resources is awareness of groundwater level. In this study, we have applied artificial neural networks (ANN) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for groundwater level forecasting to 4 months ahead in Shiraz basin, southwestern Iran. Time series analysis was conducted according to the Box–Jenkins method. Meanwhile, gamma and M-test were considered for determining the optimal input combination and length of training and testing data in the ANN model. The results indicated that performance of multilayer perceptron neural network (4, 14, 1) and ARIMA (2, 1, 2) is satisfactory in the groundwater level forecasting for one month ahead. The performance comparison shows that the ARIMA model performs appreciably better than the ANN. 相似文献
Radio occultation (RO) techniques that use signals transmitted by Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) have emerged over the past decade as an important tool for measuring global changes in tropopause temperature and height, a valuable capacity given the tropopause??s sensitivity to temperature variations. This study uses 45,091 RO data from the CHAMP (CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload, 80 months), GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment, 23 months) and COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate, 20 months) satellites to analyse the variability of the tropopause??s height and temperature over Australia. GNSS RO temperature profiles from CHAMP, GRACE, and COSMIC are first validated using radiosonde observations provided by the Bureau of Meteorology (Australia). These are compared to RO soundings from between 2001 and 2007 that occurred within 3 h and 100 km of a radiosonde. The results indicate that RO soundings provide data of a comparable quality to radiosonde observations in the tropopause region, with temperature deviations of less than 0.5 ± 1.5 K. An analysis of tropopause height and temperature anomalies indicates a height increase over Australia as a whole of ca. 4.8 ± 1.3 m between September 2001 and April 2008, with a corresponding temperature decrease of ?0.019 ± 0.007 K. A similar pattern of increasing height/decreasing temperature was generally observed when determining the spatial distribution of the tropopause height and temperature rate of change over Australia. Although only a short period has been considered in this study, a function of the operating time of these satellites, the results nonetheless show an increase in the height of the tropopause over Australia during this period and thus may indicate regional warming. Several mechanisms could be responsible for these changes, such as an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and lower stratospheric cooling due to ozone loss, both of which have been observed during the last decades. 相似文献
The metamorphic complex of the North Golpayegan is part of the Sanandaj-Sirjan Zone. There are at least three distinct stages of deformation in this complex. Throughout the first stage, Paleozoic and Mesozoic sedimentary rocks have experienced regional metamorphism during Late Jurassic tectonic events related to the subduction of the Neo-Tethys oceanic lithosphere under the Iranian microcontinent. During the second deformation stage in the Late Cretaceous-Paleocene, the rocks have been mylonitized. The third stage of deformation in the region has led to folding and faulting superimposed on previous structures, and to exhumation of the metamorphic complex. This stage has determined the current morphology and N70E strike of the complex. The mylonitic zones of the second stage of deformation have been formed along the dextral transpressional faults. During the third stage of deformation and exhumation of the metamorphic complex, the mylonitic zones have been uplifted to the surface. The granitoids in the metamorphic complex have been injected along the extensional shear fractures related to the dextral transpressional displacements. The granitoids have been transformed into mylonites within the synthetic or antithetic shear zones. These granitoids are recognized as syncollision type (CCG) and have been formed at the end of orogenic events synchronous to the collision between the Arabian and the Iranian plates at the Late Cretaceous-Paleocene. 相似文献
As natural and man-made disasters have been increasing, interest in preventing crises and/or mitigating the associated consequences has been growing as well. When dealing with predictable disasters, there is a limited time for effective response, and people should be evacuated in a short time to minimize the fatalities. In such extraordinary situations, attention should be given to making better use of existing infrastructure. The aim of this study is to present a model for optimizing street directions in order to increase the outbound capacity of the network. However, because of the magnitude of the problem, an optimal solution cannot be reached through ordinary methods. Hence, the simulated annealing algorithm, which is a meta-heuristic technique, is used. Computational results on a case study demonstrate that this technique yields considerable improvement in the objective function of the problem which is total travel time of road network users.
In watersheds that have not sufficient meteorological and hydrometric data for simulating rainfall-runoff events, using geomorphologic and geomorphoclimatic characteristics of watershed is a conventional method for the simulation. A number of rainfall-runoff models utilize these characteristics such as Nash-IUH, Clark-IUH, Geomorphologic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph(GIUH), Geomorphoclimatic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph(GcIUH), GIUH-based Nash(GIUH-Nash) and GcIUH-based Clark(GcIUH-Clark). But all these models are not appropriate for mountainous watersheds. Therefore, the objective of this study is to select the best of them for the simulation. The procedure of this study is: a) selecting appropriate rainfall-runoff events for calibration and validation of six hybrid models, b) distinguishing the best model based on different performance criteria(Percentage Error in Volume(PEV); Percentage Error in Peak(PEP); Percentage Error in Time to Peak(PETP); Root Mean Square Error(RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient(ENS)), c) Sensitivity analysis for determination of the most effective parameter at each model, d) Uncertainty determination of different parameters in each model and confirmation of the obtained results by application of the performance criteria. For application of this procedure, the Navrood watershed in the north of Iran as a mountainous watershed has been considered. The results showed that the ClarkIUH and GcIUH-Clark are suitable models for simulation of flood hydrographs, while other models cannot simulate flood hydrographs appropriately. The sensitivity analysis shows that the most sensitive parameters are the infiltration constant rate and time of concentration in the Clark-IUH model. Also, the most sensitive parameters include the infiltration constant rate and storage coefficient in the GcIUHClark model. The Clark-IUH and GcIUH-Clark models are more sensitive to their parameters. The Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS) on Monte Carlo(MC) simulation method was used for evaluation of uncertainty of data in rainfall-runoff models. In this method 500 sets of data values are produced and then the peak discharge of flood hydrographs for each produced data set is simulated with rainfall-runoff models. The uncertainty of data changes the value of simulated peak discharge of flood hydrograph. The uncertainty analysis shows that the observed peak discharges of different rainfall-runoff events are within the range of values of simulated by the six hybrid rainfall-runoff models and IUH that inputs of these models were the produced data sets. The range of the produced peak discharge of flood hydrographs by the Clark-IUH and GcIUH-Clark models is wider than those of other models. 相似文献
Free vibration analysis of symmetrically laminated composite plates resting on Pasternak elastic support and coupled with an ideal, incompressible and inviscid fluid is the objective of the present work. The fluid domain is considered to be infinite in the length direction but bounded in the depth and width directions. In order to derive the eigenvalue equation, Rayleigh-Ritz method is applied for the fluid-plate-foundation system. The efficiency of the method is proved by comparison studies with those reported in the open literature. At the end, parametric studies are carried out to examine the impact of different parameters on the natural frequencies. 相似文献
Unfortunately in developing countries, human activities without attention to the environmental aspects damage to nature. For example, construction of large dams dries wetlands in southwest of Iran. Also, construction of dams is a very important factor for morphological changes. The case study of this research is downstream of the Karkheh dam. This dam is the largest Earth dam in Iran and locates in southwest of Iran. It was constructed in 1999. Small sinuosity coefficient of zone near to dam has been illustrated by satellite images in 2002 and 2014. This subject shows instability of this part of reach; also, the results of Shulits equation illustrate that this part is instable. But, increasing of morphological characteristics (sinuosity coefficient, central angle, and relative radius) show that stability of this reach is increasing. Surveying confirm this matter and shows that severe erosion in upstream and sedimentation in downstream of reach is finishing. Also, it is observed that flow discharge reduced (?56 %) after construction of dam and average width of river reduced (?21 %) from 2002 to 2014. In the early years after the construction of the dam, sediment discharge reduced considerably (?14 %) from Pay-e-Pol to Abdol Khan hydrometric stations. Increasing of morphological characteristics (especially at zones near to dam) and decreasing changes of bed level (sedimentation and erosion) prove that effects of dam are overcoming on effects of other factors, and these effects are permanent in long term. 相似文献