Quantification of uncertainty in the assessment of future streamflow under changing climate conditions          下载免费PDF全文

Sohom Mandal  Slobodan P. Simonovic 《水文研究》2017,31(11):2076-2094

Climate change has a significant influence on streamflow variation. The aim of this study is to quantify different sources of uncertainties in future streamflow projections due to climate change. For this purpose, 4 global climate models, 3 greenhouse gas emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways), 6 downscaling models, and a hydrologic model (UBCWM) are used. The assessment work is conducted for 2 different future time periods (2036 to 2065 and 2066 to 2095). Generalized extreme value distribution is used for the analysis of the flow frequency. Strathcona dam in the Campbell River basin, British Columbia, Canada, is used as a case study. The results show that the downscaling models contribute the highest amount of uncertainty to future streamflow predictions when compared to the contributions by global climate models or representative concentration pathways. It is also observed that the summer flows into Strathcona dam will decrease, and winter flows will increase in both future time periods. In addition to these, the flow magnitude becomes more uncertain for higher return periods in the Campbell River system under climate change.  相似文献   

Spectral fit of Cygnus X-1 in high energy— a self-consistent study     

Samir Mandal  Sandip K. Chakrabarti 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2007,309(1-4):305-308

We fit the spectra of Cyg X-1 using two component advective flows with Keplerian accretion disks on the equatorial plane surrounded by sub-Keplerian disks when standing shocks are present. The soft photons generated by the bremsstrahlung and synchrotron processes in the sub-Keplerian flow, as well as the multi-colour black body emission from the Keplerian disk are Comptonized by the thermal and non-thermal electrons. By varying Keplerian and sub-Keplerian rates we are able to reproduce the observed soft and hard states as far as X-ray region is concerned and ‘low γ-ray intensity’ and ‘high γ-ray intensity’ states as far as the soft γ-ray region is concerned. We also find two pivotal points where the spectra intersect as is observed in Cyg X-1.   相似文献   

Seismic velocity images of a crystallized crustal magma-conduit (related to the Deccan plume) below the seismically active Kachchh rift zone,Gujarat, India     

Mandal  Prantik 《Natural Hazards》2022,111(1):239-260

Natural Hazards - Local earthquake seismic tomography of the Kachchh rift zone (India) using arrival times of P- and S-waves detect a semi-circular region of lower seismic velocities (8–15%...  相似文献   

Delineation of crustal and lithospheric structure below the 2019 Palghar swarm activity region,Maharashtra, India     

Mandal  Prantik  Srinivas  D.  Vengala  Pavan K.  Srinagesh  D.  Suresh  G.  Naresh  B. 《Natural Hazards》2022,114(1):205-235

Natural Hazards - Here, we present crustal and lithospheric structure at six broadband stations below the Palghar swarm activity region, Maharashtra, India, which has produced 7786 events of...  相似文献   

Interaction of surface erosion and sequential thrust progression: Implications on exhumation processes     

Santanu Bose  Nibir Mandal 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2010,75(1):338-344

This paper investigates the evolution of thrust wedges with concomitant surface erosion, and its bearing on the exhumation processes in orogenic belts. We performed sandbox experiments, simulating syn-orogenic erosion on forelandward sloping surfaces (∼4°). Experiments show that the erosion process has a significant control on the progression of frontal thrusts. In case of no-erosion condition, wedges with high basal friction develop frontal thrusts with strongly increasing spacing. In contrast, for the same basal friction the thrusts show uniform spacing as the wedge development involves concomitant surface erosion. On the other hand, the erosion promotes reactivation of hinterland thrusts in wedges with low basal friction. We show that erosion-assisted thrust reactivation is the principal mechanism for exhumation of deeper level materials in orogens. Efficiency of this mechanism is largely controlled by basal friction. The exhumation of deeper level materials is limited, and occurs within a narrow, sub-vertical zone in the extreme hinterland when the basal friction is high (μ_b = 0.46). In contrast, the process is quite effective in wedges with low basal friction (μ_b =0.36), resulting in exhumation along gently dipping foreland-vergent thrusts as well as along thrusts, subsequently rotated into steep attitude. The zone of exhumation also shifts in the foreland direction in the course of horizontal movement. Consequently, deeper level materials cover a large area of the elevated part of the wedge.  相似文献   

Numerical modeling of flow patterns around subducting slabs in a viscoelastic medium and its implications in the lithospheric stress analysis     

Nishant Kumar  Shamik Sarkar  Nibir Mandal 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2010,75(1):98-109

This paper presents results obtained from numerical model experiments to show different patterns of mantle flow produced by lithospheric movement in subduction zones. Using finite element models, based on Maxwell rheology (relaxation time ∼ 10¹¹S), we performed three types of experiments: Type 1, Type 2 and Type 3. In Type 1 experiments, the lithospheric slab subducts into the mantle by translational movement, maintaining a constant subduction angle. The experimental results show that the flow perturbations occur in the form of vortices in the mantle wedge, irrespective of subduction rate and angle. The mantle wedge vortex is coupled with another vortex below the subducting plate, which tends to be more conspicuous with decreasing subduction rate. Type 2 experiments take into account a flexural deformation of the plate, and reveal its effect on the flow patterns. The flexural motion induces a flow in the form of spiral pattern at the slab edge. Density-controlled lithospheric flexural motion produces a secondary flow convergence zone beneath the overriding plate. In many convergent zones the subducting lithospheric plate undergoes detachment, and moves down into the mantle freely. Type 3 experiments demonstrate flow perturbations resulting from such slab detachments. Using three-dimensional models we analyze lithospheric stresses in convergent zone, and map the belts of horizontal compression and tension as a function of subduction angle.  相似文献   

Estimation of probable maximum precipitation for catchments in eastern India by a generalized method   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

P. R. Rakhecha  B. N. Mandal  A. K. Kulkarni  N. R. Deshpande 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1995,51(1-2):67-74

Summary A generalized method to estimate the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) has been developed for catchments in eastern India (80° E, 18° N) by pooling together all the major rainstorms that have occurred in this area. The areal raindepths of these storms are normalized for factors such as storm dew point temperature, distance of the storm from the coast, topographic effects and any intervening mountain barriers between the storm area and the moisture source. The normalized values are then applied, with appropriate adjustment factors in estimating PMP raindepths, to the Subarnarekha river catchment (upto the Chandil dam site) with an area of 5663 km². The PMP rainfall for 1, 2 and 3 days were found to be roughly 53 cm, 78 cm and 98 cm, respectively. It is expected that the application of the generalized method proposed here will give more reliable estimates of PMP for different duration rainfall events.With 5 Figures  相似文献   

Variability of Mixed-Layer Heights over the Indian Ocean and Central Arabian Sea during INDOEX, IFP-99     

D. Bala Subrahamanyam  Radhika Ramachandran  K. Sen Gupta  Tuhin K. Mandal 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2003,107(3):683-695

The upper air data collected from the balloon-borne GLASS Sondes launched from the Oceanic Research Vessel (ORV) Sagar Kanya during the Intensive Field Phase of the Indian Ocean experiment (INDOEX, IFP-99;SK-141 Cruise) are utilized forstudying the variability in the mixed-layer heights observed over the western tropical Indian Ocean and central Arabian Sea. During the entire cruise, typical daytime convective mixed-layer heights (roughly corresponding to 1400 LT) obtained from _V and q profiles, were observed to be in the range 200–900 m. Shallowmixed -layer heights are observed, in general, over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Over the central Arabian Sea, vertical profiles of _V and q demonstrate a double mixed-layer structure of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL), which gradually disappears close to the Indian coastline.  相似文献   

Estimation of Site Response in Kachchh,Gujarat, India,Region Using H/V Spectral Ratios of Aftershocks of the 2001 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript> 7.7 Bhuj Earthquake     

Prantik Mandal  R K Chadha  C Satyamurty  I P Raju  N Kumar 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2005,162(12):2479-2504

Site response in the aftershock zone of 2001 Bhuj M_w 7.7 earthquake has been studied using the H/V spectral ratio method using 454 aftershocks (M_w 2.5–4.7) recorded at twelve three-component digital strong motion and eight three-component digital seismograph sites. The mean amplification factor obtained for soft sediment sites (Quaternary/Tertiary) varies from 0.75–6.03 times for 1–3 Hz and 0.49–3.27 times for 3–10 Hz. The mean amplification factors obtained for hard sediment sites (hard Jurassic/Mesozoic sediments) range from 0.32–3.24 times for 1–3 Hz and 0.37–2.18 times for 310 Hz. The upper bounds of the larger mean amplification factors for 1–3 Hz are found to be of the order of 3.13–6.03 at Chopadwa, Vadawa, Kavada, Vondh, Adhoi, Jahwarnagar and Gadhada, whereas, the upper bounds of the higher mean amplification factors at 3–10 Hz are estimated to be of the order of 2.00–3.27° at Tapar, Chopadwa, Adhoi, Jahwarnagar, Gandhidham and Khingarpur. The site response estimated at Bhuj suggests a typical hard-rock site behavior. Preliminary site response maps for 1–3 Hz and 310 Hz frequency ranges have been prepared for the area extending from 23–23.85 °N and 69.65–70.85°E. These frequency ranges are considered on the basis of the fact that the natural frequencies of multi-story buildings (3 to 10 floor) range between 1–3 Hz, while the natural frequencies for 1 to 3 story buildings vary from 3–10 Hz. The 1–3 Hz map delineates two distinct zones of maximum site amplification (>3 times): one lying in the NW quadrant of the study area covering Jahwarnagar, Kavada and Gadadha and the other in the SE quadrant of the study area with a peak of 6.03 at Chopadwa covering an area of 70 km × 50 km. While the 3–10 Hz map shows more than 2 times site amplification value over the entire study area except, NE quadrant, two patches in the southwest corner covering Bhuj and Anjar, and one patch at the center covering Vondh, Manfara and Sikara. The zones for large site amplification values (∼3 times) are found at Tapar, Chopadwa, Adhoi and Chobari. The estimated site response values show a good correlation with the distribution of geological formations as well as observed ground deformation in the epicentral zone.  相似文献   

An assessment of soil contamination due to heavy metals around a coal-fired thermal power plant in India   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

A. Mandal  D. Sengupta 《Environmental Geology》2006,51(3):409-420

Combustion of coals in thermal power plants is one of the major sources of environmental pollution due to generation of huge amounts of ashes, which are disposed off in large ponds in the vicinity of the thermal power plants. This problem is of particular significance in India, which utilizes coals of very high ash content (∼55 wt%). Since the thermal power plants and the ash ponds are located in densely populated areas, there is potential chance for contamination of soil and groundwater of the surrounding areas from the toxic trace elements in the ash. An attempt has been made to study the extent of soil contamination around one of the largest thermal power plants of India located at Kolaghat, West Bengal India. Chemical analysis of the top soils and the soils collected from the different depth profiles surrounding the ash ponds, show that the top soils are enriched in the trace elements Mo, As, Cr, Mn, Cu, Ni, Co, Pb, Be, V, Zn, which show maximum enrichment (2–5) in the top soils collected from all the soil profiles. These elements are also enriched in the pond ash. Since there are no other sources of industrial effluents, it can be said that the enrichment of the trace elements (Mn, Co, Mo, Cr, Cu, Pb, Zn, As, Ni, Be, V) is attributed to their input from ash from the disposal pond. The study has been further strengthened by log-normal distribution pattern of the elements.  相似文献