Prediction of UT1–UTC,LOD and AAM χ<Subscript>3</Subscript> by combination of least-squares and multivariate stochastic methods     

Tomasz Niedzielski  Wiesław Kosek 《Journal of Geodesy》2008,82(2):83-92

This article presents the application of a multivariate prediction technique for predicting universal time (UT1–UTC), length of day (LOD) and the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM χ ₃). The multivariate predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC are generated by means of the combination of (1) least-squares (LS) extrapolation of models for annual, semiannual, 18.6-year, 9.3-year oscillations and for the linear trend, and (2) multivariate autoregressive (MAR) stochastic prediction of LS residuals (LS + MAR). The MAR technique enables the use of the AAM χ ₃ time-series as the explanatory variable for the computation of LOD or UT1–UTC predictions. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, two other prediction schemes are also applied: (1) LS extrapolation, (2) combination of LS extrapolation and univariate autoregressive (AR) prediction of LS residuals (LS + AR). The multivariate predictions of AAM χ ₃ data, however, are computed as a combination of the extrapolation of the LS model for annual and semiannual oscillations and the LS + MAR. The AAM χ ₃ predictions are also compared with LS extrapolation and LS + AR prediction. It is shown that the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS + MAR taking into account the axial component of AAM are more accurate than the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS extrapolation or on LS + AR. In particular, the UT1–UTC predictions based on LS + MAR during El Niño/La Niña events exhibit considerably smaller prediction errors than those calculated by means of LS or LS + AR. The AAM χ ₃ time-series is predicted using LS + MAR with higher accuracy than applying LS extrapolation itself in the case of medium-term predictions (up to 100 days in the future). However, the predictions of AAM χ ₃ reveal the best accuracy for LS + AR.  相似文献   

Hydrogeochemistry and isotope analyses used to determine groundwater recharge and flow in low-gradient catchments of the province of Buenos Aires,Argentina   总被引：7，自引：3，他引：4  

O. M. Quiroz Londoño  D. E. Martínez  C. Dapeña  H. Massone 《Hydrogeology Journal》2008,16(6):1113-1127

The region known as Pampa Plain, in Argentina, is a vast area characterized by slopes of less than 0.05%. The surface sediment is silty sand, mainly Aeolian, referred to as Pampean Loess, which is a phreatic aquifer unit of utmost importance for the water supply of the region. On account of the slight gradient, hydrogeological analyses using only hydraulic measurements are difficult to perform, often leading to confusing results. Thus, the study presented relies on hydrochemical modeling and isotopic determinations as well. The study area comprises three catchments in the inter-mountainous area corresponding to El Moro, Tamangueyú and Seco creeks, and covering 2,570 km² in the province of Buenos Aires. Measurements of piezometric levels and samples of groundwater, surface water and rainwater were carried out between January and March 2005. Major ion results were analyzed by means of hydrochemical graphs and hydrogeochemical modelling using NETPATH. The resulting data show that it is possible to identify local changes in recharge, flow direction and stream/groundwater relationship by using hydrochemical and isotopic information, which may become a useful and more precise tool for the study of particularly flat landscapes.  相似文献   

Distances to planetary nebulae with [WR]-type central stars     

Sławomir K. Górny 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1996,238(1):79-82

  相似文献   

Probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation in underground mines     

Ewa GłOwacka 《Natural Hazards》1993,7(2):121-132

Stress concentrations produced by rock deformation due to extraction in underground mines induce seismicity that can take the shape of violent and quite dangerous rockbursts.The hazard evaluation presented in this paper is based on a Bayesian probabilistic synthesis of information determined from mining situations during excavation, with previous and present data from microseismicity and seismoacustics.The method proposed in this study is an example of time-dependent on-line seismic hazard evaluation. All results presented were obtained retrospectiely for different underground coal mines in Poland and Czechoslovakia.On leave from Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences 01-452 Warszawa, ul. Ksiecia Janusza 64, Poland.  相似文献   

Geochemical evolution of the Capim River kaolin, Northern Brazil     

D.J.L. Sousa  A.F.D.C. Varajo  J. Yvon 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》2006,88(1-3):329

The Capim River kaolin, located in the eastern Brazilian Amazon, constitutes one of the most important kaolin deposits in the world. Known for its high whiteness, its noble application is in the paper industry. Studies were carried out on samples from the six facies of the deposit (sand kaolin, soft kaolin, lower transition facies, ferruginous crust, upper transition facies and flint kaolin) in order to trace its geochemical evolution. The kaolin developed at the expense of Cretaceous sandy–clayey sediments of the Ipixuna Formation. Intense lateritic processes characterized by ferruginization and deferruginization mechanisms led to the distinction of the different facies.  相似文献   

Phytoliths as indicators of pedogenesis and paleoenvironmental changes in the Brazilian cerrado     

Miriam Borba-Roschel  Anne Alexandre  Anglica Fortes Drummond Chicarino Varajo  Jean Dominique Meunier  Csar Augusto Chicarino Varajo  Fabrice Colin 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》2006,88(1-3):172

This paper presents the preliminary results of phytolith analyses of a peat located in the cerrado of the Uberaba municipality, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The phytolith soil sequence is discussed by comparison with phytolith assemblages extracted from dominant plants (Cyperaceae and Poaceae). Increasing mean age of phytolith assemblages with depth is assumed. Poaceae Cuneiform bulliform cell, Parallelepiped bulliform cell and Elongate smooth long cell types dominate up to 80 cm, rapidly drop to 42% at 80 cm and regularly decrease from 42% to 2% upwards. Cyperaceae Rondel concave type shows the inverse trend, being dominant in the upper part of the profile. This pattern can be assigned to increasing selective dissolution of the Cyperaceae phytolith type with depth, or/and to a decrease of water stress suffered by the grasses, leading to a decrease of bulliform cell silicification. Soil processes and paleo-environmental changes hypotheses are discussed.  相似文献   

Geophysical methods applied to fault characterization and earthquake potential assessment in the Lower Tagus Valley, Portugal     

Joo Carvalho  Joo Cabral  Rui Gonalves  Luís Torres  Luís Mendes-Victor 《Tectonophysics》2006,418(3-4):277-297

The study region is located in the Lower Tagus Valley, central Portugal, and includes a large portion of the densely populated area of Lisbon. It is characterized by a moderate seismicity with a diffuse pattern, with historical earthquakes causing many casualties, serious damage and economic losses. Occurrence of earthquakes in the area indicates the presence of seismogenic structures at depth that are deficiently known due to a thick Cenozoic sedimentary cover. The hidden character of many of the faults in the Lower Tagus Valley requires the use of indirect methodologies for their study. This paper focuses on the application of high-resolution seismic reflection method for the detection of near-surface faulting on two major tectonic structures that are hidden under the recent alluvial cover of the Tagus Valley, and that have been recognized on deep oil-industry seismic reflection profiles and/or inferred from the surface geology. These are a WNW–ESE-trending fault zone located within the Lower Tagus Cenozoic basin, across the Tagus River estuary (Porto Alto fault), and a NNE–SSW-trending reverse fault zone that borders the Cenozoic Basin at the W (Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault). Vertical electrical soundings were also acquired over the seismic profiles and the refraction interpretation of the reflection data was carried out. According to the interpretation of the collected data, a complex fault pattern disrupts the near surface (first 400 m) at Porto Alto, affecting the Upper Neogene and (at least for one fault) the Quaternary, with a normal offset component. The consistency with the previous oil-industry profiles interpretation supports the location and geometry of this fault zone. Concerning the second structure, two major faults were detected north of Vila Franca de Xira, supporting the extension of the Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault zone northwards. One of these faults presents a reverse geometry apparently displacing Holocene alluvium. Vertical offsets of the Holocene sediments detected in the studied geophysical data of Porto Alto and Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon faults imply minimum slip rates of 0.15–0.30 mm/year, three times larger than previously inferred for active faults in the Lower Tagus Valley and maximum estimates of average return periods of 2000–5000 years for M 6.5–7 co-seismic ruptures.  相似文献   

Enregistrement de la variabilité hydroclimatique au cours des 6500 dernières années sur le littoral de Cabo Frio (Rio de Janeiro,Brésil)     

Bérengère Laslandes  Florence Sylvestre  Abdelfettah Sifeddine  Bruno Turcq  Ana Luiza S. Albuquerque  Jorge Abrão 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2006,338(10):667-675

This study concerns a core collected in Brejo do Espinho's lagoon from Cabo Frio littoral (Brazil) submitted to dry influence of local upwelling controlled by north-east trade winds from the South Atlantic and particularly strengthened during El Niño events. Diatoms study supported by sedimentological and isotopic analyses shows dry phases infrequent before 4000 yr, a highly variable climatic phase between 3600 and 2900 yr and from 2400 yr onward a dryness enhancement. To cite this article: B. Laslandes et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).  相似文献   

Assessment of mercury mobility and bioavailability by fractionation method in sediments from coastal zone inundated by the 26 December 2004 tsunami in Thailand     

Leonard Boszke  Artur Kowalski  Witold Szczuciński  Grzegorz Rachlewicz  Stanisław Lorenc  Jerzy Siepak 《Environmental Geology》2006,51(4):527-536

The 26 December 2004 tsunami covered significant portion of a coastal zone with a blanket of potentially contaminated sediments. In this report are presented results on mercury concentrations in sediments deposited by the tsunami in a coastal zone of Thailand. Since the total mercury concentrations are insufficient to assess mercury mobility and bioavailability in sediment, its fractionation was applied. Sediments were sampled within 50 days after the event and analyzed by sequential extraction method. The procedure of sequential extraction involved five subsequent stages performed with solutions of chloroform, deionized water, 0.5 M HCl, 0.2 M NaOH, and aqua regia. The mean concentration of total mercury in sediments was 119 ± 50 ng g⁻¹ dry mass (range 66–230). The fractionation revealed that mercury is mainly bound to the least bioavailable sulphides 75 ± 6% (range 62–86), organomercury compounds 14 ± 7% (range 4–26), and humic matter 9 ± 7% (range 1–27). The lowest contributions bring fractions of water-soluble mercury 0.8 ± 1.0% (range 0.1–3.6) and acid soluble mercury 0.9 ± 0.5% (range 0.2–2.1). Although, the total mercury content is similar in a reference sample and in the tsunami sediments, the highly toxic organomercury fraction contribution is higher in the latter. The results were compared with chemical and sedimentological properties of the sediments but no significant correlations were obtained between them.  相似文献   

Catastrophic debris flows near Machu Picchu village (Aguas Calientes), Peru   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

V. Vilímek  J. Klimeš  J. Vlcko  R. Carreño 《Environmental Geology》2006,50(7):1041-1052

Slope movements together with intensive river erosion and the following accumulation are the leading processes in the landscape evolution in the area of Machu Picchu village (former Aguas Calientes), which is located close to the Machu Picchu Sanctuary. Debris flows affect not only the bottoms of valleys or canyons, but also debris fans at the termini of the drainage basins, which are heavily inhabited at some places. The most recent event in the Machu Picchu village occurred in April 2004, but several others were documented in a broader area in the last 50 years. The field inspections at Machu Picchu (May and September 2004; June and September 2005) together with oral testimony revealed the nature and behavior of the debris flow. Machu Picchu village can be assessed as a zone with high landslide risk in relation to its urban development. Despite that, the village recorded a rapid growth (threefold population increase) without urban control within the past two decades. Precipitation, which is the main triggering factor of the debris flows, and natural hazard management of the Machu Picchu village are discussed in this paper.  相似文献