The stochastic nature of stellar population modelling     

Miguel Cerviño 《New Astronomy Reviews》2013,57(5):123-139

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Assessing benthic health under multiple human pressures in Bohai Bay (China), using density and biomass in calculating AMBI and M‐AMBI     

Wenqian Cai  Ángel Borja  Lusan Liu  Wei Meng  Iñigo Muxika  José Germán Rodríguez 《Marine Ecology》2014,35(2):180-192

In recent decades, China has undergone an impressive development, which has produced increasing human pressures including coastal degradation. Bohai Bay, located in the west of the Bohai Sea (north of China), has been affected by various human pressures, including waste water discharges, land reclamation and oil exploitation. To monitor the effects of these pressures on this ecosystem, benthic macroinvertebrates and environmental variables (dissolved oxygen, nutrients, metals, etc.) were sampled in 2009 and 2011. To assess the ecological status of the benthic communities, the AZTI Marine Biotic Index (AMBI) and multivariate‐AMBI (M‐AMBI) were used, including both density and biomass in the calculation. This is the first research in which M‐AMBI based on biomass (M‐bAMBI) is applied. Both methods showed that the nearshore areas, especially close to the Haihe and Jiyun estuaries, were affected by human pressures, with a clear gradient of decreasing impacts offshore. The ecological status as assessed using density and biomass was quite similar. Significant relationships were also found between both methods and environmental variables. The use of AMBI and M‐AMBI, based upon density and biomass, in assessing the ecological status of water bodies in China seems to be promising.  相似文献   

基于进化建模方法的HJ-1 CCD黄海悬浮物和叶绿素a浓度遥感反演模型研究   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

秦平  沈钺  牟冰  郝艳玲  朱建华  崔廷伟 《海洋学报》2014,36(11):142-149

本文利用实测数据集,发展了基于进化建模方法的HJ-1CCD黄海悬浮物(TSM)和叶绿素a浓度(Chl a)遥感反演模型,建模过程中有针对性地设计了适合水色反演的端点集和函数集,并利用转基因方法引入水色先验知识。经实测数据检验,TSM反演的平均相对误差约为31%(相关系数R2为0.96),Chl a反演误差约为33%(R2为0.88)。分析了模型对输入误差的敏感性,当输入端引入±5%的误差时,模型误差的波动在大多数情形下都可控制在±10%以内。与神经网络模型相比,本文发展的进化模型具有检验精度高、结构简单等优势。利用不同季节的黄、东海实测数据进行了模型精度的独立检验。本文的研究工作表明,进化建模方法适用于水色遥感反演建模问题,可由程序自动生成多个满足精度要求、结构形式多样的显式模型,为水色反演应用提供了多种选择,对于拥有数百个波段的高光谱数据水色反演具有更大的应用潜力。本文最后探讨了进化建模方法的改进方向。  相似文献   

Comments on “Confirmation of beach accretion by grain-size trend analysis: Camposoto beach, Cádiz, SW Spain” by E. Poizot et al. (2013) Geo-Marine Letters 33(4)     

Juan J. Muñoz-Perez  Jorge Roman-Sierra  Marina Navarro-Pons  Maria da Graça Neves  Jose M. del Campo 《Geo-Marine Letters》2014,34(1):75-78

This Discussion provides comments on the application of grain-size trend analysis to Camposoto beach (SW Spain) reported by Poizot et al. (2013) in Geo-Marine Letters 33(4):263–272. Some of their results are updated or complemented by existing data from other studies carried out on Camposoto and other nearby beaches. For example, a detailed breakdown of beach nourishment volumes and costs is presented, and the influence of a horizontal reef flat on the tilting of the beach profile around the mean or the low water level is highlighted. Moreover, data from the displacement of dyed samples are used to evaluate the relationship between sediment transport speed (v_a) and current speed (V), the corresponding ratio being consistent with the range of values reported by several other authors. Finally, some minor, although still significant, differences are detected in some granulometric parameters as well as in the profile shape. Determining the reason for these discrepancies could enhance our current knowledge about the factors controlling short-term beach profile responses.  相似文献   

Evaluating conservation effectiveness of nature reserves established for surrogate species: Case of a giant panda nature reserve in Qinling Mountains, China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

XU Weihua  Andrés VIA  QI Zengxiang  OUYANG Zhiyun  LIU Jianguo  LIU Wei  WAN Hui 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2014,24(1):60-70

Many nature reserves are established to protect the habitat needs of particular endangered species of interest but their effec-tiveness for protecting other species is questionable.In this study,this effectiveness was evaluated in a nature reserve network located in the Qinling Mountains,Shaanxi Province,China.The network of reserves was established mainly for the conservation of the giant panda,a species considered as a surrogate for the conservation of many other endangered species in the region.The habitat suitability of nine protected species,including the giant panda,was modeled by using Maximum Entropy（MAXENT） and their spatial congruence was analyzed.Habitat suitability of these species was also overlapped with nature reserve boundaries and their management zones（i.e.,core,buffer and experimental zones）.Results show that in general the habitat of the giant panda constitutes a reasonable surrogate of the habitat of other protected species,and giant panda reserves protect a relatively high proportion of the habitat of other protected species.Therefore,giant panda habitat conservation also allows the conservation of the habitat of other protected species in the region.However,a large area of suitable habitat was excluded from the nature reserve network.In addition,four species exhibited a low proportion of highly suitable habitat inside the core zones of nature reserves.It suggests that a high proportion of suitable habitat of protected species not targeted for conservation is located in the experimental and buffer zones,thus,is being affected by human activities.To increase their conservation effectiveness,nature reserves and their management zones need to be re-examined in order to include suitable habitat of more endangered species.The procedures described in this study can be easily implemented for the conservation of many endangered species not only in China but in many other parts of the world.  相似文献   

Study on the “winter persistence barrier” of Indian Ocean dipole events using observation data and CMIP5 model outputs     

Rong Feng  Mu Mu  Wansuo Duan 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,118(3):523-534

This study investigates the persistence barrier phenomenon associated with positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events during the various phases of its development. The results derived from three observational datasets (the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation, International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set, and Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature) indicate that significant winter persistence barriers (WPBs) occur during IOD events, both in its growing and decaying phases. The simulation skill of the 14 models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 with respect to persistence barriers was also evaluated and compared with observational data. The results show that although most models were able to simulate the WPB reasonably well during the growing phase, only five models could capture the appropriate WPB during the decaying phase. Further analysis demonstrates that the zonal equatorial gradient of climatological sea surface temperature (SST) and zonal sea surface winds at the equator in the Indian Ocean are very weak in winter, which indicates that the coupling between ocean and atmosphere is weakest in winter and encourages a rapid variation of IOD events and a swift reduction of persistence, favoring the occurrence of WPBs; furthermore, a deep climatological thermocline in winter implies that the subsurface water temperature cannot influence SST readily, and the memory of the subsurface temperature cannot help SST to recover from the loss of persistence during this period, leading to the occurrence of WPBs. In addition, an analysis of the climatological conditions in the outputs from the 14 models shows that those models that can (cannot) capture the winter climatological conditions frequently simulate the WPBs appropriately (poorly). This confirms that the occurrence of the WPB for IOD events may be closely related to particular winter climatological conditions, indicating that the WPB is an inherent property of IOD events.  相似文献   

Role of Parameter Errors in the Spring Predictability Barrier for ENSO Events in the Zebiak–Cane Model     

YU Liang  MU Mu  Yanshan  YU 《大气科学进展》2014,31(3):647-656

ABSTRACT The impact of both initial and parameter errors on the spring predictability barrier （SPB） is investigated using the Zebiak Cane model （ZC model）. Previous studies have shown that initial errors contribute more to the SPB than parameter errors in the ZC model. Although parameter errors themselves are less important, there is a possibility that nonlinear interactions can occur between the two types of errors, leading to larger prediction errors compared with those induced by initial errors alone. In this case, the impact of parameter errors cannot be overlooked. In the present paper, the optimal combination of these two types of errors [i.e., conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） errors] is calculated to investigate whether this optimal error combination may cause a more notable SPB phenomenon than that caused by initial errors alone. Using the CNOP approach, the CNOP errors and CNOP-I errors （optimal errors when only initial errors are considered） are calculated and then three aspects of error growth are compared： （1） the tendency of the seasonal error growth; （2） the prediction error of the sea surface temperature anomaly; and （3） the pattern of error growth. All three aspects show that the CNOP errors do not cause a more significant SPB than the CNOP-I errors. Therefore, this result suggests that we could improve the prediction of the E1 Nifio during spring by simply focusing on reducing the initial errors in this model.  相似文献   

The Høvsøre Tall Wind-Profile Experiment: A Description of Wind Profile Observations in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer     

Alfredo Peña  Rogier Floors  Sven-Erik Gryning 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2014,150(1):69-89

We present an analysis of data from a nearly 1-year measurement campaign performed at Høvsøre, Denmark, a coastal farmland area where the terrain is flat. Within the easterly sector upstream of the site, the terrain is nearly homogenous. This topography and conditions provide a good basis for the analysis of vertical wind-speed profiles under a wide range of atmospheric stability, turbulence, and forcing conditions. One of the objectives of the campaign was to serve as a benchmark for flow over flat terrain models. The observations consist of combined wind lidar and sonic anemometer measurements at a meteorological mast. The sonic measurements cover the first 100 m and the wind lidar measures above 100 m every 50 m in the vertical. Results of the analysis of observations of the horizontal wind-speed components in the range 10–1200 m and surface turbulence fluxes are illustrated in detail, combined with forcing conditions derived from mesoscale model simulations. Ten different cases are presented. The observed wind profiles approach well the simulated gradient and geostrophic winds close to the simulated boundary-layer height during both barotropic and baroclinic conditions, respectively, except for a low-level jet case, as expected. The simulated winds are also presented for completeness and show good agreement with the measurements, generally underpredicting the turning of the wind in both barotropic and baroclinic cases.  相似文献   

Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer incidence risk in Georgia,USA: 2000–2007     

Ping Yin  Lan Mu  Marguerite Madden  John E. Vena 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2014,16(4):387-407

Lung cancer is the second most commonly diagnosed cancer in both men and women in Georgia, USA. However, the spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer risk in Georgia have not been fully studied. Hierarchical Bayesian models are used here to explore the spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer incidence risk by race and gender in Georgia for the period of 2000–2007. With the census tract level as the spatial scale and the 2-year period aggregation as the temporal scale, we compare a total of seven Bayesian spatio-temporal models including two under a separate modeling framework and five under a joint modeling framework. One joint model outperforms others based on the deviance information criterion. Results show that the northwest region of Georgia has consistently high lung cancer incidence risk for all population groups during the study period. In addition, there are inverse relationships between the socioeconomic status and the lung cancer incidence risk among all Georgian population groups, and the relationships in males are stronger than those in females. By mapping more reliable variations in lung cancer incidence risk at a relatively fine spatio-temporal scale for different Georgian population groups, our study aims to better support healthcare performance assessment, etiological hypothesis generation, and health policy making.  相似文献   

基于多尺度遥感数据的城市扩展模式分析研究     

李辉  谭曦  白穆 《测绘》2014,(2):58-62

为了研究空间尺度效应对城市扩展模式分析的影响,本文选用TM和SPOT-5的遥感影像作为数据源,以北京市朝阳区作为研究区,首先将SPOT-5数据按照面积占优法获得10米至80米的多尺度数据,用于分析城市景观格局的尺度效应,结果显示10米至30米是城市景观格局变化较大的空间尺度。再结合TM尺度的历史数据,利用最小斑块大小相同的SPOT数据和TM数据对城市扩展模式的景观指数变化情况进行了分析:边界密度和面积加权平均斑块分维数都呈相反的变化方向,这对城市扩展方式的确定有较大影响;居民地斑块类型百分比和最大斑块指数虽然趋势正确,但是差别较大;斑块密度受尺度的影响较小。  相似文献