Modeling the risk of spread and establishment for Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) in Massachusetts from 2008-2009     

Andrew J. Shatz  Florencia Sangermano  Jennifer Miller  Arthur Elmes 《国际地球制图》2016,31(8):813-831

Land managers responsible for invasive species removal in the USA require tools to prevent the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) (ALB) from decimating the maple-dominant hardwood forests of Massachusetts and New England. Species distribution models (SDMs) and spread models have been applied individually to predict the invasion distribution and rate of spread, but the combination of both models can increase the accuracy of predictions of species spread over time when habitat suitability is heterogeneous across landscapes. First, a SDM was fit to 2008 ALB presence-only locations. Then, a stratified spread model was generated to measure the probability of spread due to natural and human causes. Finally, the SDM and spread models were combined to evaluate the risk of ALB spread in Central Massachusetts in 2008–2009. The SDM predicted many urban locations in Central Massachusetts as having suitable environments for species establishment. The combined model shows the greatest risk of spread and establishment in suitable locations immediately surrounding the epicentre of the ALB outbreak in Northern Worcester with lower risk areas in suitable locations only accessible through long-range dispersal from access to human transportation networks. The risk map achieved an accuracy of 67% using 2009 ALB locations for model validation. This model framework can effectively provide risk managers with valuable information concerning the timing and spatial extent of spread/establishment risk of ALB and potential strategies needed for effective future risk management efforts.  相似文献   

Exploring seven hundred years of transhumance,climate dynamic,fire and human activity through a historical mountain pass in central Spain     

José Antonio López-Sáez  Francisca Alba-Sánchez  Sandra Robles-López  Sebastián Pérez-Díaz  Daniel Abel-Schaad  Silvia Sabariego-Ruiz  Arthur Glais 《山地科学学报》2016,13(7):1139-1153

A high-altitude peat sequence from the heart of the Spanish Central System (Gredos range) was analysed through a multi-proxy approach to determine the sensitivity of high-mountain habitats to climate, fire and land use changes during the last seven hundred years, providing valuable insight into our understanding of the vegetation history and environmental changes in a mountain pass close to a traditional route of transhumance. The pollen data indicate that the vegetation was dominated by shrublands and grasslands with scattered pines in high-mountain areas, while in the valleys cereals, chestnut and olive trees were cultivated. Strong declines of high-mountain pines percentages are recorded at 1540, 1675, 1765, 1835 and 1925 cal AD, which may be related to increasing grazing activities and/or the occurrence of anthropogenic fires. The practice of mountain summer farming and transhumance deeply changed and redesigned the landscape of the high altitudes in central Spain (Gredos range) since the Middle Ages, although its dynamics was influenced in some way by climate variability of the past seven centuries.  相似文献   

Holocene landscape evolution in the pawnee river valley,southwestern kansas,rolfe d. mandel, 1994, kansas geological survey and kansas state historical society,bulletin 236, iv + 117 pp., $12.00 (softbound)     

E. Arthur Bettis 《Geoarchaeology》1995,10(1):90-92

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Changing trust relations within the Dutch fishing industry: The case of National Study Groups     

Birgit I. de Vos  Arthur P.J. Mol 《Marine Policy》2010

This paper focuses on changing trust relationships among fishermen following new governance arrangements. The previous ‘thick’ trust relationships that characterized the Dutch fisheries industry under a neo-corporatist arrangement had resulted in an isolation of local fishermen groups vis-à-vis outsiders. However, under new governance arrangements, in particular the so-called Study Groups, these trust relationships are changing. The establishment of Study Groups, where fishermen from different localities have to cooperate on sustainability innovations in order to receive subsidies, lead to more diversity within the industry, more collaborations across localities and new forms of ‘thin’ trust. As such, these Study Groups can be understood as successful experiments in further opening up of the fisheries community.  相似文献   

A review of numerical experiments on seismic wave scattering     

Arthur Frankel 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1989,131(4):639-685

This paper reviews applications of the finite-difference and finite-element methods to the study of seismic wave scattering in both simple and complex velocity models. These numerical simulations have improved our understanding of seismic scattering in portions of the earth where there is significant lateral heterogeneity, such as the crust. The methods propagate complete seismic wavefields through highly complex media and include multiply scattered waves and converted phases (e.g.,P toSV, SV toP, body wave to surface wave). The numerical methods have been especially useful in cases of moderate and strong scattering in complex media where multiple scattering becomes important. Progress has been made with numerical methods in understanding how near-surface, low-velocity basin structures scatter surface waves and vertically-incident body waves. The numerical methods have proven useful in evaluating scattering of surface waves and body waves from topography of both the free surface and interfaces buried at depth. Numerical studies have demonstrated the importance of conversions from body waves to surface waves (andvice versa) when lateral heterogeneities and topographic relief are present in the uppermost crust. Recently, several investigations have applied numerical methods to study seismic wave propagation in velocity models which vary randomly in space. This stochastic approach seeks to understand the effects of small-scale complexity in the earth which cannot be resolved deterministically. These experiments have quantified the relationships between the statistical properties of the random heterogeneity and the measurable properties of high-frequency (1 Hz) seismograms. These simulations have been applied to the study of many features observed in actual high-frequency seismic waves, including: the amplitude and time decay of seismic coda, the apparent attenuation from scattering, the dispersion of waveforms, and the travel time and waveform variations across arrays of receivers.  相似文献   

A three dimensional perspective on the evolution of Archaean crust: LITHOPROBE seismic reflection images in the southwestern Superior province     

John Ludden  Claude Hubert  Arthur Barnes  Bernd Milkereit  Edward Sawyer 《Lithos》1993,30(3-4):357-372

15011993

Abstract

In 1990–1991 the LITHOPROBE project completed 450 km of seismic reflection profiles across the late Archaean crust of the southwestern Superior province. The results define a broad three-fold division of crust: upper crust in the Abitibi greenstone belt is non-reflective and is a 6–8 km veneer of volcanic and plutonic supracrustal rocks, whereas, in the sediment-gneiss dominated Pontiac subprovince, upper crust comprises shallow northwest-dipping turbidite sequences; mid-crust, in both the Abitibi and the Pontiac subprovinces, is interpreted as imbricate sequences of metasedimentary and metaplutonic rocks; lower crust in both subprovinces has a horizontal layer parallel strycture which may represent interleaved mafic-intermediate gneisses. The seismic signature of the northern Abitibi greenstone belt may be represented in an exposed 25 km crustal section in the Kapuskasing stuctural zone.

Preliminary tectonic models based on the seismic data are consistent with a plate-tectonic scenario involving oblique subduction and imbrication of sedimentary, plutonic and volcanic sequences. The northern Abitibi supracrustal sequences either represent an allochthon, or overlie an allochthonous underthrust metasedimentary and plutonic sequence which may be equivalent to a metasedimentary subprovince such as the Pontiac or Quetico.

Seismic velocities have yet to be defined. However, crustal thicknesses are relatively constant at 35–40 km. The thinnest crust is adjacent to the Grenville Front where Moho is very well defined.  相似文献   

The Trade-Off Between Volumetric and Topographic Structure For Seismic Traveltimes: 660 Km Topography and Mantle Structure     

Arthur Rodgers  John Wahr 《Geophysical Journal International》1994,117(1):19-32

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Inference of core-mantle boundary topography from ISC PcP and PKP traveltimes     

Arthur Rodgers  John Wahr 《Geophysical Journal International》1993,115(3):991-1011

We invert ISC PcP and PKP absolute and differential traveltimes in an attempt to infer the long-wavelength topography of the core-mantle boundary (CMB). The data selection and processing methods are described and evaluated. These travel-time data are very noisy and the geographic distribution of the data is highly non-uniform, inhibiting reliable inference of CMB topography. Spatial averaging enhances the coherent component of the residual variance (related to heterogeneity), however, the random component of the variance is much larger than the coherent component. We show that for PcP data the coherent signal due to mantle heterogeneity overshadows that arising from the CMB, and that the effects of mantle heterogeneity are mapped into our inferred CMB solutions. The PcP data are not correlated across the spatial averaging bins and seem to have a strong bias due to small-scale structure and/or noise. The non-uniform geographic sampling of the data plays a role in the mapping of mantle heterogeneity onto the CMB. Spatial patterns of CMB models inferred from different phases do not agree. Amplitudes of seismically inferred CMB undulations vary greatly. The sensitivity of inferred CMB models to the processing, spatial averaging procedure, and inversion techniques are investigated. Topographic amplitudes increase strongly with increasing input residual variance. The power spectrum of inferred topography indicates that there are unmodelled heterogeneities that must be described with spherical harmonics of degree 6 and higher. Based on this work, we conclude that reliable inference of long-wavelength CMB topography is not likely with the current ISC data set or with a spherical harmonic expansion truncated to degree and order 6.  相似文献   

Determination of part-per-trillion levels of atmospheric dimethyl sulfide by isotope dilution gas chromatography/mass spectrometry     

Donald C. Thornton  Alan R. Bandy  Robert G. Ridgeway  Arthur R. Driedger III  Marija Lalevic 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1990,11(4):299-308

Stable isotopic dilution was applied to the determination of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) in ambient air at the low part-per-trillion by volume (pptrv) levels. Perdeuterated DMS was used as an internal standard in the gas chromatography/mass spectrometry determination. The isotopically labelled internal standard provided insensitivity to possible losses of DMS in sampling and analysis. The lower limit of detection (LLD) was 1 pptrv with a sample acquisition time of 2 min.  相似文献   

Factors influencing the stability of smectite sealants     

Arthur G. Clem 《Engineering Geology》1985,21(3-4):273-278

Smectite is a mineral, but a mineral with distinct chemical properties. Structural changes in minerals may require millions of years of aging to complete, but a chemical reaction may be completed in only 4 to 5 min.

Some of the problems of smectite seals are described in this paper, together with methods of avoiding these hazards.  相似文献