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31.
32.
Diagnostics of subseasonal prediction biases of the Asian summer monsoon by the NCEP climate forecast system 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Xiangwen Liu Song Yang Arun Kumar Scott Weaver Xingwen Jiang 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(5-6):1453-1474
Biases of subseasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoon are diagnosed using daily data from the hindcasts of 45-day integrations by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System version 2. The retrospective forecasts often show apparent systematic biases, which are mostly represented by the underestimation of the whole Asian monsoon. Biases depend not only on lead time, but also on the stage of monsoon evolution. An abrupt turning point of bias development appears around late June and early July, when ensemble spread and bias growth of winds and precipitation show a significant change over the northwestern Pacific (NWP) and the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) region. The abrupt turning of bias development of winds, precipitation, and surface temperature is also captured by the first two modes of multivariate empirical orthogonal function analysis. Several features appear associated with the abrupt change in bias development: the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) begins its first northward jump and the surface temperature over the Tibetan Plateau commences a transition from warm bias to cold bias, and a reversal of surface temperature biases occurs in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and the SASM region. The shift of WPSH position and the transition of surface thermal bias show close relationships with the formation of bias centers in winds and precipitation. The rapid growth in bias due to the strong internal atmospheric variability during short leads seems to mainly account for the weak WPSH and SASM in the model. However, at certain stages, particularly for longer-lead predictions, the biases of slowly varying components may also play an important role in bias development of winds and precipitation. 相似文献
33.
An exact similarity solution for a spherical magnetogasdynamic shock is obtained in the case when radiation energy, radiation pressure and radiative heat flux are important. The total energy of the shock wave increase with time. We have shown that due to the magnetic field the flow variables are considerably changed. Also, due to increases in radiation pressure number the radiation flux is increased. 相似文献
34.
Three measurements of head at unique locations form a three-point estimator of the local magnitude and orientation of the hydraulic gradient. The relative head measurement error (RHME) is defined here as the measurement error normalized by the head drop across the three-point estimator. Monte Carlo simulation results show that estimators with base to height ratios between 0.5 and 5.0 and that are large enough to keep the RHME below 0.05 create the most accurate gradient estimates and provide criteria for identifying good estimators. These criteria are applied to an example ground water monitoring network design problem in the Culebra dolomite near the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant repository to both analyze temporal changes and modify and expand the current monitoring network. Limiting the three-point estimators to those that meet the shape and RHME criteria reduces the number of possible estimators by >50% and leads to approximately 1 order of magnitude decrease in the average estimated magnitude of the gradient relative to using all estimators. Application of these criteria also reduces the variability in estimated gradient magnitude and orientation between the two time periods of measurements. Redundant wells in the network are identified by removing each existing well in turn and determining which removals yield the smallest decrease in the number of acceptable estimators. Optimal new well locations are identified by mapping the increase in total number of acceptable estimators for a single new well placed in the study domain. 相似文献
35.
Zeng-Zhen Hu Bohua Huang James L. Kinter III Zhaohua Wu Arun Kumar 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(1-2):25-43
The interdecadal variation of the association of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) with tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (SSTA) and with the general circulation in the troposphere and lower stratosphere is examined using the ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, as well as other observation-based analyses. It is found that the relationship between the QBO and tropical SSTA changed once around 1978–1980, and again in 1993–1995. During 1966–1974, negative correlation between the QBO and NINO3.4 indices reached its maximum when the NINO3.4 index lagged the QBO by less than 6?months. Correspondingly, the positive correlations were observed when the NINO3.4 index led the QBO by about 11–13?months or lagged by about 12–18?months. However, maximum negative correlations were shifted from the NINO3.4 index lagging the QBO by about 0–6?months during 1966–1974 to about 3–12?months during 1985–1992. During 1975–1979, both the negative and positive correlations were relatively small and the QBO and ENSO were practically unrelated to each other. The phase-based QBO life cycle composites also confirm that, on average, there are two phase (6–7?months) delay in the evolution of the QBO-associated anomalous Walker circulation, tropical SST, atmospheric stability, and troposphere and lower stratosphere temperature anomalies during 1980–1994 in comparison with those in 1957–1978. The interdecadal variation of the association between the QBO and the troposphere variability may be largely due to the characteristic change of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation. The irregularity of the QBO may play a secondary role in the interdecadal variation of the association. 相似文献
36.
This paper formally introduces the concept of mitigation as a stochastic control problem. This is illustrated by applying
a digital state variable feedback control approach known as Non-Minimum State Space (NMSS) control to the problem of specifying
carbon emissions to control atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the presence of uncertainty. It is shown that the control approach naturally lends itself to integrating
both anticipatory and reflexive mitigation strategies within a single unified framework. The framework explicitly considers
the closed-loop nature of climate mitigation, and employs a policy orientated optimisation procedure to specify the properties
of this closed-loop system. The product of this exercise is a control law that is suitably conditioned to regulate atmospheric
CO2 concentrations through assimilating online information within a 25-year review cycle framework. It is shown that the optimal
control law is also robust when faced with significant levels of uncertainty about the functioning of the global carbon cycle. 相似文献
37.
One interesting method of constraining the dense matter Equations of State is to measure the advancement of the periastron of the orbit of a binary radio pulsar (when it belongs to a double neutron star system). There is a great deal of interest on applicability of this procedure to the double pulsar system PSR J0737-3039 (A/B). Although the above method can be applied to PSR A in future within some limitations, for PSR B this method cannot be applied. On the other hand, the study of genesis of PSR B might be useful in this connection and its low mass might be an indication that it could be a strange star. 相似文献
38.
Mildly deformed granitoids exposed around Bilgi in the northernmost part of the eastern Dharwar craton are divided into two
groups viz. granodiorites and monzogranites. The granodiorites contain microgranular enclaves and amphibolite xenoliths, and
show low-Al TTG affinity with high SiO2 (71–74 %), Na2O, Y and Sr/Y, moderate to moderately high Mg#, Cr and Ni, low to moderate LILE, and low Nb and Ta. However, compared to similar
TTGs from different cratons the Bilgi granodiorites have distinctly higher K2O, K2O/Na2O, Rb and lower REE and Th. The amphibolite xenoliths are characterized by variable enrichment of K2O, Rb, Ba and Th and depletion of Ti, Zr and P compared to MORB. The microgranular enclaves are quartz diorite to granodiorite
in composition with high Mg, Ni and Cr, and compared to MORB, are enriched in LILE and depleted in Ti and Y. The monzogranites,
compared to the granodiorites, display higher SiO2, K2O and Rb with lower Mg#, although still maintaining the high Na2O, Ni and Cr and low REE character.
The Bilgi granodiorites are explained as transitional TTGs late synkinematic with respect to regional deformation. Geochemical
signatures and regional geological set up suggest that they are probably derived from partial melting of a highly depleted
slab material (metabasalt) followed by variable contamination or assimilation of intermediate crustal rocks in a subduction
zone set up. Late stage fluid activity on the granodioritic magma is probably responsible for the generation of monzogranites.
The amphibolite xenoliths predate the granodiorites and possibly represent fragments of a schist belt carried away by the
granitic magma. They are probably island arc basalt derived from mantle source that has been metasomatized by slab-derived
fluids. The microgranular enclaves are coeval with the Bilgi granodiorites and also likely to be island arc magmas derived
from mantle variably enriched in slab-derived and within-plate components. 相似文献
39.
Dandapat Sumit Chakraborty Arun Kuttippurath Jayanarayanan Bhagawati Chirantan Sen Radharani 《Ocean Dynamics》2021,71(10):963-979
Ocean Dynamics - This study investigates the role of driving atmospheric forces [winds, net heat flux, and evaporation–precipitation (E–P)] and the possible mechanisms on the mixed... 相似文献
40.
Manjari Bagchi Rachid Ouyed Jan Staff Subharthi Ray Mira Dey † Jishnu Dey ‡ 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,387(1):115-120
We study the effects of temperature on strange stars. It is found that the maximum mass of the star decreases with the increase of temperature, as at high temperatures the equations of state become softer. Moreover, if the temperature of a strange star increases, keeping its baryon number fixed, its gravitational mass increases and its radius decreases. This leads to a limiting temperature, where it turns into a black hole. These features are the result of a combined effect of the change of gluon mass and the quark distribution with temperature. We report on a new type of radial oscillation of strange stars, driven by what we call 'chromothermal' instability. We also discuss the relevance of our findings in the astrophysics of core collapse supernovae and gamma-ray bursts. 相似文献