New statistical models for long-range forecasting of southwest monsoon rainfall over India   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

M. Rajeevan  D. S. Pai  R. Anil Kumar  B. Lal 《Climate Dynamics》2007,28(7-8):813-828

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been issuing long-range forecasts (LRF) based on statistical methods for the southwest monsoon rainfall over India (ISMR) for more than 100 years. Many statistical and dynamical models including the operational models of IMD failed to predict the recent deficient monsoon years of 2002 and 2004. In this paper, we report the improved results of new experimental statistical models developed for LRF of southwest monsoon seasonal (June–September) rainfall. These models were developed to facilitate the IMD’s present two-stage operational forecast strategy. Models based on the ensemble multiple linear regression (EMR) and projection pursuit regression (PPR) techniques were developed to forecast the ISMR. These models used new methods of predictor selection and model development. After carrying out a detailed analysis of various global climate data sets; two predictor sets, each consisting of six predictors were selected. Our model performance was evaluated for the period from 1981 to 2004 by sliding the model training period with a window length of 23 years. The new models showed better performance in their hindcast, compared to the model based on climatology. The Heidke scores for the three category forecasts during the verification period by the first stage models based on EMR and PPR methods were 0.5 and 0.44, respectively, and those of June models were 0.63 and 0.38, respectively. Root mean square error of these models during the verification period (1981–2004) varied between 4.56 and 6.75% from long period average (LPA) as against 10.0% from the LPA of the model based on climatology alone. These models were able to provide correct forecasts of the recent two deficient monsoon rainfall events (2002 and 2004). The experimental forecasts for the 2005 southwest monsoon season based on these models were also found to be accurate.  相似文献   

SHEAR STRESS FOR INITIATION OF MOTION OF NON-UNIFORM SEDIMENT MIXTURES     

Liton Kumar SARKER M. Monowar HOSSAIN M. Anisul HAQUE 《国际泥沙研究》2007,22(3):169-179

Experiments on initiation of motion of different fractions of non-uniform sediment mixtures are reported. Four sediment mixes and reference transport method to define the threshold of bed particle movement are used in this analysis. Factors controlling the initiation of motion are analyzed. It is found that relative size of different grains with respect to a median size greatly affects the initiation of movement. The incipient motion of non-uniform sediment is very much dependent on the absolute size for coarser fractions. Considering the factors controlling the initiation of motion the experimental data sets along with the other available data yield a new relationship for the calculation of critical shear stress of non-uniform sediments. A set of equations have found that all the data points fall into a single line for the finer and for coarser fractions.  相似文献   

Investigation of the ozone and trace gases contribution to the total optical depth in the polluted urban environment of Athens     

D.G. Kaskaoutis  H.D. Kambezidis  Shailesh Kumar Kharol  K.V.S. Badarinath 《Atmospheric Research》2007,86(3-4):286-296

This study focuses on the determination of optical depths caused by ozone and trace gases absorption in the Chappuis band, 500–700 nm, and the contribution to the Total Minus Rayleigh Optical Depth (TMROD). The optical depths were derived using the transmission functions implemented in the SMARTS parametric model, while the Total Optical Depths (TODs) were derived by solar extinction measurements obtained in Athens during May 1995. From the data analysis it is obvious that both the ozone and trace gases contribute significantly to TMROD in the Chappuis band. More specifically, the trace gases contributions are higher for air with high pollution levels, while ozone's contribution can be significant under clear-sky conditions. Therefore, the correction in TMROD due to ozone and trace gases optical depths is necessary for an accurate determination of the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) in the Chappuis band. The optical depth of ozone is generally removed during the process of the AOD retrievals, since the significance of its absorption in the Chappuis band is well understood. Nevertheless, the optical depth of the trace gases (mainly NO₂) is not always taken into account in the AOD retrievals, though its contribution can be significant in urban polluted atmospheres. In this respect, the present study attempts to quantify the ozone and trace gases contributions in an urban environment and to provide some new functions that help estimate the contribution of ozone to the TMROD in the Chappuis band.  相似文献   

Pore water pressure in natural slopes     

Ashok K. Chugh 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》1981,5(4):449-454

Estimating subsurface pore water pressures in natural slopes along the periphery of rivers and reservoirs for future conditions, created by the operational requiremets to meet increases in energy demand from the observed data of the past and present, operations, is possible with the use of a mathematical model. An effective algorithm for calculating pore water pressure at any location in a slope stability section is to use a complete polynomial and to assure geometric invariance of the calculated results.  相似文献   

Fluorescence efficiencies of electrons in second positive bands of N₂ and first negative bands of N_2⁺     

S.P. Khare  A. Kumar 《Planetary and Space Science》1973,21(8):1381-1387

Fluorescence efficiencies of electrons in a large number of bands of N₂ second positive and N_2⁺ first negative groups lying in the 3000–5200 Å region are calculated. At very low pressure where quenching is negligible the present values are within 15 per cent of the experimental data of Hartmann (1968). The efficiencies are found to be independent of the impact energies greater than 200 eV which is in accordance with other theoretical and experimental results. The ratio of the total efficiencies in N₂ second positive and N_2⁺ first negative groups is 1·31 and is about 20 per cent lower than the experimental values. The efficiencies at a higher pressure equal to 600 torr are compared with the experimental data of Davidson and O'Neil (1964a).  相似文献   

Mercury's atmosphere: A perspective after Mariner 10     

Shailendra Kumar 《Icarus》1976,28(4):579-591

Measurements made during the Mariner 10 flybys of Mercury have shown that this planet has a tenuous atmosphere, somewhat similar to that of the Moon, which consists of at least helium and can be classified as an exosphere. The amount of helium observed can be supplied by either the accretion of only a fraction of the solar wind He²⁺ diffusing across the magnetopause, or from outgassing of radiogenic helium from the planetary crust. The role of solar wind in the maintenance and depletion of Mercury's atmosphere is discussed in view of the density upper limits established from Mariner 10. The argon supply rate on Mercury is probably not more than that on the Earth, but it is difficult to say whether Mercury is deficient in potassium or not on the basis of the present data. The global outgassing of CO₂ and H₂O from the planet interior is estimated to be at least four orders of magnitude smaller than for Earth which indicates that either Mercury is deficient in volatiles or that this planet is very inactive.  相似文献   

XX Cam—The Inactive R CrB star     

I. Kameswara Rao  N. M. Ashok  P. V. Kulkarni 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》1980,1(1):71-78

Infrared observations obtained six years apart of the R CrB type star XX Cam do not show any infrared excess, unlike all the other members of the class. The observed colours match a 7000 K black body energy distribution quite well. From the year 1898 till todate, apparently XX Cam has undergone only one visual light minimum in 1940. The lack of infrared excess, the abundance peculiarities and further lack of small amplitude light variations with periods of few tens of days, which are characteristic of R CrB type stars, are discussed in terms of theoretical pulsation models of helium stars.  相似文献   

A paleolimnological record of Holocene climate and environmental change in the Temagami region,northeastern Ontario   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Robert?E.?A.?Boudreau  Jennifer?M.?Galloway  R.?Timothy?PattersonEmail author  Arun?Kumar  Frederick?A.?Michel 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2005,33(4):445-461

The Arcellacean (Thecamoebian) fauna was assessed in five Holocene sediment cores obtained from James and Granite lakes in the Temagami region of northeastern Ontario. In addition, palynological analysis was carried out on two of these cores, one each from James and Granite lakes. The first indication of postglacial colonization by plants was the appearance of rare Cupressaceae pollen, dated to 10,800 yr BP. Plant diversity began to increase by 10,770 yr BP when Pinus spp. and Larix migrated into the area. The first appearance of arcellaceans occurred after 9650 yr BP in assemblages dominated by Centropyxis constricta and opportunistic Centropyxis aculeata. High abundances of charophytes in the cores until 8800 yr BP indicated that macroalgae were proliferating at this time. This deposition is interpreted to have occurred during the draining of an ice-marginal lake following the retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Based on pollen analysis, warmer conditions associated with the Holocene Hypsithermal prevailed in the area from 6250 to 4115 yr BP. The stable, open Great Lakes – St. Lawrence type forest that developed here at the beginning of the Hypsithermal continues to prevail to the present. The periodic colonization of the lake by beavers (Castor canadensis) acted as a control on water-level and eutrophication through the Holocene. Evidence of eutrophication was indicated in the core samples by the abundance of high levels of the alga Pediastrum and the arcellacean Cucurbitella tricuspis. Eutrophication periodically developed when beavers dammed a site, causing the rate of flow in drainage streams to slow and stagnant conditions occurred. When the site became depleted of the nearby trees, which were preferred by beaver (Betula, Alnus and Populus), the dam would be abandoned, causing the water-level to drop. Stagnant conditions were reduced as flow levels increased, reducing eutrophication and resulting in recovering forest stands. In addition, the lowering water levels would result in encroachment of the forest along the lake shore. This cycle occurred many times in the history of this lake as indicated by fluctuations in the size of arcellacean populations.  相似文献   

Development of micro-scale joints in volcanic rocks under thermal stress     

Susanta Kumar Samanta 《Journal of Earth System Science》2001,110(3):191-203

Petrographic studies of samples of the Rajmahal basalt reveal a variety of microscopic joints within phenocrysts, which seem to have developed under the influence of thermal stresses during cooling. The theoretical analysis shows that:

–	•thermal stresses develop in a system only under unsteady state of cooling,
–	•the stresses responsible for the development of joints are tensile in nature, and
–	•the magnitude of stresses increases with increasing rates of cooling.

In order to understand the effects of cooling rate on the mode of jointing, analogue model experiments were performed by quenching melt films of organic, crystalline materials under varying cooling conditions. In experiments, non-branching linear joints developed at relatively lower rates of cooling by a process of sub-critical crack propagation. On the other hand, at higher rates of cooling the mechanism of crack propagation was essentially supercritical leading to the development of branching joints.  相似文献   

p Modes in and Away from a Sunspot     

Kumar  Brajesh  Jain  Rajmal  Tripathy  S.C.  Vats  Hari Om  Deshpande  M.R. 《Solar physics》2000,191(2):293-307

A time series of GONG Dopplergrams for the period 10–14 May 1997 from Udaipur and Big Bear sites has been used to measure the velocity fluctuations in a sunspot (NOAA active region 8038) and quiet photosphere simultaneously. We observe that the power of pre-dominant p mode is reduced in the sunspot as compared to quiet photosphere by 39–52% depending on the location of the sunspot region on the solar disk. We also observe a relative peak frequency deviation of p modes in the sunspot, of the order of 80–310 Hz, which shows a linear dependence on the magnetic field gradient in the active region. The maximum frequency deviation of 310 Hz on 12 May appears to be an influence of a long-duration solar flare that occurred in this active region. We interpret this relative peak frequency deviation as either due to power re-distribution of p modes in the sunspot or a consequence of frequency modulation of these modes along the magnetic flux tubes due to rapidly varying magnetic field structure.  相似文献