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21.
Karl Thomas Hjelmervik Jan Kristian Jensen Petter ?stenstad Atle Ommundsen 《Ocean Dynamics》2012,62(2):253-264
Sonar performance modeling is crucial for submarine and anti–submarine operations. The validity of sonar performance models
is generally limited by environmental uncertainty, and particularly uncertainty in the vertical sound speed profile (SSP).
Rapid environmental assessment (REA) products, such as oceanographic surveys and ocean models may be used to reduce this uncertainty
prior to sonar operations. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) applied on the SSPs inherently take into account the vertical
gradients and therefore the acoustic properties. We present a method that employs EOFs and a grouping algorithm to divide
a large group of SSPs from an ocean model simulation into smaller groups with similar SSP characteristics. Such groups are
henceforth called acoustically stable groups. Each group represents a subset in space and time within the ocean model domain.
Regions with low acoustic variability contain large and geographically contiguous acoustically stable groups. In contrast,
small or fragmented acoustically stable groups are found in regions with high acoustic variability. The main output is a map
of the group distribution. This is a REA product in itself, but the map may also be used as a planning aid for REA survey
missions. 相似文献
22.
Daniel Steiner Andreas Pauling Samuel U. Nussbaumer Atle Nesje Jürg Luterbacher Heinz Wanner Heinz J. Zumbühl 《Climatic change》2008,90(4):413-441
A nonlinear backpropagation network (BPN) has been trained with high-resolution multiproxy reconstructions of temperature
and precipitation (input data) and glacier length variations of the Alpine Lower Grindelwald Glacier, Switzerland (output
data). The model was then forced with two regional climate scenarios of temperature and precipitation derived from a probabilistic
approach: The first scenario (“no change”) assumes no changes in temperature and precipitation for the 2000–2050 period compared
to the 1970–2000 mean. In the second scenario (“combined forcing”) linear warming rates of 0.036–0.054°C per year and changing
precipitation rates between −17% and +8% compared to the 1970–2000 mean have been used for the 2000–2050 period. In the first
case the Lower Grindelwald Glacier shows a continuous retreat until the 2020s when it reaches an equilibrium followed by a
minor advance. For the second scenario a strong and continuous retreat of approximately −30 m/year since the 1990s has been
modelled. By processing the used climate parameters with a sensitivity analysis based on neural networks we investigate the
relative importance of different climate configurations for the Lower Grindelwald Glacier during four well-documented historical
advance (1590–1610, 1690–1720, 1760–1780, 1810–1820) and retreat periods (1640–1665, 1780–1810, 1860–1880, 1945–1970). It
is shown that different combinations of seasonal temperature and precipitation have led to glacier variations. In a similar
manner, we establish the significance of precipitation and temperature for the well-known early eighteenth century advance
and the twentieth century retreat of Nigardsbreen, a glacier in western Norway. We show that the maritime Nigardsbreen Glacier
is more influenced by winter and/or spring precipitation than the Lower Grindelwald Glacier. 相似文献
23.
During the early Holocene abrupt, decadal to centennial-scale climate variations caused significant glacier variations in Norway. Increased freshwater inflow to the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans has been suggested as one of the most likely mechanisms to explain the abrupt and significant Lateglacial and early Holocene climatic events in NW Europe. The largest early Holocene glacier readvances occurred 11,200, 10,500, 10,100, 9700, 9200 and 8400–8000 cal. yr BP. The studied Norwegian glaciers apparently melted away at least once during the early/mid-Holocene. The period with the most contracted glaciers in Scandinavia was between 6600 and 6000 cal. yr BP. Subsequent to 6000 cal. yr BP the glaciers started to advance and the most extensive glaciers existed at about 5600, 4400, 3300, 2300, 1600 cal. yr BP, and during the ‘Little Ice Age’. Times with overall less glacier activity were apparently around 5000, 4000, 3000, 2000, and 1200 cal. yr BP. It has been proposed that several glacier advances occurred in Scandinavia (including northern Sweden) at 8500–7900, 7400–7200, 6300–6100, 5900–5800, 5600–5300, 5100–4800, 4600–4200, 3400–3200, 3000–2800, 2700–2000, 1900–1600, 1200–1000, and 700–200 cal. yr BP. Glaciers in northern Sweden probably reached their greatest ‘Little Ice Age’ extent between the 17th and the beginning of the 18th centuries. Evidence for early Holocene glacier advances in northern Scandinavia, however, has been questioned by more recent, multi-disciplinary studies. The early to mid-Holocene glacier episodes in northern Sweden may therefore be questioned.Most Norwegian glaciers attained their maximum ‘Little Ice Age’ extent during the mid-18th century. Cumulative glacier length variations in southern Norway, based on marginal moraines dated by lichenometry and historic evidence, show an overall retreat from the mid-18th century until the 1930s–40s. Subsequently, most Norwegian glaciers retreated significantly. Maritime outlet glaciers with short frontal time lags (<10–15 years) started to advance in the mid-1950s, whereas long outlet glaciers with longer frontal time lags (>15–20 years) continued their retreat to the 1970s and 1980s. However, maritime glaciers started to advance as a response to higher winter accumulation during the first part of the 1990s. After 2000 several of the observed glaciers have retreated remarkably fast (annual frontal retreat > 100 m) mainly due to high summer temperatures. The general glacier retreat during the early Holocene and the Neoglacial advances after 6000 cal. yr BP are in line with orbital forcing, due to the decrease of Northern Hemisphere summer solar insolation and the increase in winter insolation. In addition, regional weather modes, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO), play a significant role with respect to decadal and multi-decadal climate variability. 相似文献
24.
Atle Nesje Svein Olaf Dahl John A. Matthews Mark S. Berrisford 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2001,25(3):329-342
To extend the historical record of river floods in southern Norway, a 572-cm long sediment core was retrieved from 42 m water depth in Atnsjøen, eastern Norway. The sediment core contains 30 light gray clastic sediment layers interpreted to have been deposited during river floods in the snow/ice free season. In the upper 123 cm of the core, four prominent flood layers occur. The youngest of these overlap with the historical record. The thickest (flood layer 5) possibly reflects a general increase in river-flood activity as a result of the post-Medieval climate deterioration (lower air temperatures, thicker and more long-lasting snow cover, and more frequent rain/snow storms) associated with the Little Ice Age. The most pronounced pre-historic flood layers in the core were, according to an age model based on linear regression between eleven bulk AMS radiocarbon dates, deposited around 4135, 3770, 3635, 3470, 3345, 2690, 2595, 2455, 2415, 2255, 2230, 2150, 2120, 1870, 1815, 1665, 1640, 1480, 1400, 1380, 1290, 935, 885, 670, 655 and 435 cal. BP (BP = AD 1950). The mean return period of the river flood layers is, according to the linear regression age model, ~ 150 ± 30 cal. yr (mean ± 1 S.E.). 相似文献
25.
Atle Christer Christiansen 《Climate Policy》2003,3(4):343-358
The objective of this paper is to assess recent developments and prospects for future changes in United States (US) climate strategy. In doing so, the paper explores some of the key factors that have shaped strategies and policies to date, distinguishing between factors related to institutional and governance structures, linkages between science and policy, energy technology and the role of interest groups. Against this background, the paper attempts to explore future development paths for US climate policy. More specifically, the paper assesses opportunities for policy changes compared to the preferences of the current administration, and the prospects for future linkages between US and international climate change strategies. In brief, the paper argues that substantial changes are unlikely to take place in the near to medium term, leaving open, however, the possibility of wide-ranging changes in domestic politics or major incidents that could facilitate a shift in the perceived need for near-term action. 相似文献
26.
27.
The local and convective accelerations of steep irregular wave events have been investigated. These properties are measured by a two-camera PIV technique. Furthermore, the experiments are compared with two different theories including a fully nonlinear and a simplified analytical model. An important result is that the convective term is of the same order of magnitude and of opposite sign as the local acceleration. The convective acceleration term can therefore not be neglected in acceleration and force estimates. 相似文献
28.
A mechanism is presented for the pulses of high fluid pressure (PF) necessary for fluid‐assisted brecciation. Establishment of hydraulic‐ or pneumatic‐connectivity between rock masses with different PF can cause overpressure in the higher rocks because the PF gradient is parallel to the hydrostatic gradient (the centroid effect). PF can become high enough to create a fracture network, with an influx of fluids and mineralisation occurring as fluids migrate to areas of lower PF. Changes in PF caused by the centroid effect can cause other structures and seismicity. 相似文献
29.
Hans Petter Sejrup Berit Oline Hjelstuen Atle Nygård Haflidi Haflidason Ivar Mardal 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2015,44(1):1-13
Palaeoglaciological reconstructions of the North Sea sector of the last British Ice Sheet have, as other shelf areas, suffered from a lack of dates directly related to ice‐front positions. In the present study new high‐resolution TOPAS seismic data, bathymetric records and sediment core data from the Witch Ground Basin, central North Sea, were compiled. This compilation made it possible to map out three ice‐marginal positions, partly through identification of terminal moraines and partly through location of glacial‐fed debrisflows. The interfingering of the distal parts of the glacial‐fed debrisflows with continuous marine sedimentation enabled the development of a chronology for glacial events based on previously published and some new radiocarbon dates on marine molluscs and foraminifera. From these data it is suggested that after the central Witch Ground Basin was deglaciated at c. 27 cal. ka BP, the eastern part was inundated by glacial ice from the east in the Tampen advance at c. 21 cal. ka BP. Subsequently, the basin was inundated by ice from northeast during the Fladen 1 (c. 17.5 cal. ka BP) and the Fladen 2 (16.2 cal. ka BP) events. It should be emphasized that the Fladen 1 and 2 events, individually, may represent dynamics of relatively small lobes of glacial ice at the margin of the British Ice Sheet and that the climatic significance of these may be questioned. However, the Fladen Events probably correlate in time with the Clogher Head and Killard Point re‐advances previously documented from Ireland and the Bremanger event from off western Norway, suggesting that the British and Fennoscandian ice sheets both had major advances in their northwestern parts, close to the northwestern European seaboard, at this time. 相似文献
30.
Analyses of 3‐D seismic data reveal that pre‐Triassic basins are present underneath the Mesozoic North Træna Basin (Lofoten Margin, Norway). These are linked to a Cordilleran‐style metamorphic core complex that developed in Palaeozoic times, including rotated fault blocks with hanging wall ‘growth’ wedges, bounded by listric faults that sole into a sub‐horizontal detachment. On the basis of similarity in age, structural style and transport direction, we propose a kinematic link with a Permian mylonitic detachment documented onshore. This study presents the first offshore evidence for Palaeozoic detachment faulting, elucidating the mechanisms behind the long‐lived exhumation history of the Lofoten basement. 相似文献