Multi-model calibration and combination of tropical seasonal sea surface temperature forecasts     

Luis Ricardo Lage Rodrigues  Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes  Caio Augusto dos Santos Coelho 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(3-4):597-616

Different combination methods based on multiple linear regression are explored to identify the conditions that lead to an improvement of seasonal forecast quality when individual operational dynamical systems and a statistical–empirical system are combined. A calibration of the post-processed output is included. The combination methods have been used to merge the ECMWF System 4, the NCEP CFSv2, the Météo-France System 3, and a simple statistical model based on SST lagged regression. The forecast quality was assessed from a deterministic and probabilistic point of view. SSTs averaged over three different tropical regions have been considered: the Niño3.4, the Subtropical Northern Atlantic and Western Tropical Indian SST indices. The forecast quality of these combinations is compared to the forecast quality of a simple multi-model (SMM) where all single models are equally weighted. The results show a large range of behaviours depending on the start date, target month and the index considered. Outperforming the SMM predictions is a difficult task for linear combination methods with the samples currently available in an operational context. The difficulty in the robust estimation of the weights due to the small samples available is one of the reasons that limit the potential benefit of the combination methods that assign unequal weights. However, these combination methods showed the capability to improve the forecast reliability and accuracy in a large proportion of cases. For example, the Forecast Assimilation method proved to be competitive against the SMM while the other combination methods outperformed the SMM when only a small number of forecast systems have skill. Therefore, the weighting does not outperform the SMM when the SMM is very skilful, but it reduces the risk of low skill situations that are found when several single forecast systems have a low skill.  相似文献   

Large scale features and energetics of the hybrid subtropical low ‘Duck’ over the Tasman Sea     

Alexandre Bernardes Pezza  Luke Andrew Garde  José Augusto Paixão Veiga  Ian Simmonds 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(1-2):453-466

New aspects of the genesis and partial tropical transition of a rare hybrid subtropical cyclone on the eastern Australian coast are presented. The ‘Duck’ (March 2001) attracted more recent attention due to its underlying genesis mechanisms being remarkably similar to the first South Atlantic hurricane (March 2004). Here we put this cyclone in climate perspective, showing that it belongs to a class within the 1 % lowest frequency percentile in the Southern Hemisphere as a function of its thermal evolution. A large scale analysis reveals a combined influence from an existing tropical cyclone and a persistent mid-latitude block. A Lagrangian tracer showed that the upper level air parcels arriving at the cyclone’s center had been modified by the blocking. Lorenz energetics is used to identify connections with both tropical and extratropical processes, and reveal how these create the large scale environment conducive to the development of the vortex. The results reveal that the blocking exerted the most important influence, with a strong peak in barotropic generation of kinetic energy over a large area traversed by the air parcels just before genesis. A secondary peak also coincided with the first time the cyclone developed an upper level warm core, but with insufficient amplitude to allow for a full tropical transition. The applications of this technique are numerous and promising, particularly on the use of global climate models to infer changes in environmental parameters associated with severe storms.  相似文献   

Magnetostratigraphy and paleomagnetism of early and middle Miocene synorogenic strata: basement partitioning and minor block rotation in Argentine broken foreland     

Oscar Zambrano  Augusto E. Rapalini  Federico M. Dávila  Ricardo A. Astini  Cecilia M. Spagnuolo 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2011,100(2-3):591-602

Magnetostratigraphic and paleomagnetic studies on early Andean synorogenic strata (Del Crestón Fm.), in the Famatina Belt (28.7°S, 67.5°W) clarify details of chronology that permit calculation of sedimentation rates within the broken foreland of west Argentina. The Del Crestón Fm represents the first record of broken foreland sedimentation within the southern Central Andean belt and the earliest retroarc volcanic rocks exposed several hundred kilometers from the trench. Twenty-five out of 49 sites collected along the succession presented a primary remanence, as determined through positive fold and reversal tests. Correlation of the local magnetic polarity section with the global polarity time scale indicates that the sedimentation of Del Crestón Fm started at ~16.7 Ma and continued until ~14.5 Ma. The youngest strata are represented by conglomerates bearing abundant Lower Paleozoic granite boulders indicating unroofing of the crystalline basement within the NW Sierras Pampeanas. This result supports the hypothesis of an early broken foreland stage at these latitudes of the Andes, with involvement of the basement in deformation and coeval retroarc volcanism, common attributes of flat-subduction regimes. A mean site paleomagnetic direction of Dec: 6.3°, Inc: ?43.6° (α95: 8.0°, N = 24) confirm our earlier intrepretation that the central part of the Famatina Belt within the Sierras Pampeanas did not undergo large vertical axes rotations since the Middle Miocene.  相似文献   

Contributions to the kinematics of type I tails of comets     

Karl Wurm  Augusto Mammano 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1972,18(2):273-286

Observed irregular oscillations of the ion tail axis in comets have by some authors been brought in connection with changes in the flow conditions in the solar wind. We are defending in this paper — by arguments resting on well known observations — the conception that these oscillations are caused by slight variations in the emission conditions for the ions at their source which has always its place close to the cometary nucleus. A complete renovation of the innermost tail part up to a length of a few million km (called by Hoffmeister the primary tail) and defining the tail axis can take place within a few to several hours. Shifts of this axis are becoming visible when the new tail rays finish their closure along another direction than the earlier ones.The not so rarely observed jumps in the direction of the primary tail lead in connection with the large time scale — of about 24h — for a complete closure of a ray system from an individual ion out-break to the conclusion that we should expect occasionally the existence of two (or even more) different axis to which tail rays make their closure. Some photographs of Comet Bennett 1969i seem to show such double axis.  相似文献   

Identification of precipitation zones within São Francisco River basin (Brazil) by global wavelet power spectra     

Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos  Bruno Sousa de Morais 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):789-796

Abstract

The definition of rainfall behaviour at the regional level is of great importance in planning policy for the rational use of water resources for both agricultural and urban uses. It allows the delimitation of areas of homogeneous rainfall features and shows the system dynamics in the area, so providing more comprehensive knowledge about the rainfall. Precipitation zones were identified within the São Francisco River basin, Northeast Brazil, by analysing the rainfall frequencies by means of global wavelet power spectra. Data from 200 raingauges were analysed and the results of the overall power spectra showed a high annual frequency throughout the basin; however, other frequencies are present with minor significance that represent changes in the rainfall regime. Although, the computed global wavelet power spectra presented an annual frequency, they showed peculiar patterns (denoted A and B) that could be used to characterize the region. Thus, three sub-regions with homogeneous rainfall patterns were identified as: Region A (south part of the basin) and Region B (north part of the basin), with frequency patterns A and B, respectively, and a Transition Zone in the central part that shows both frequency patterns.

Citation Santos, C.A.G. and Morais, B.S., 2013. Identification of precipitation zones within São Francisco River basin (Brazil) by global wavelet power spectra. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 789–796.  相似文献   

Daily streamflow forecasting using a wavelet transform and artificial neural network hybrid models     

Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos  Gustavo Barbosa Lima da Silva 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):312-324

Abstract

New wavelet and artificial neural network (WA) hybrid models are proposed for daily streamflow forecasting at 1, 3, 5 and 7 days ahead, based on the low-frequency components of the original signal (approximations). The results show that the proposed hybrid models give significantly better results than the classical artificial neural network (ANN) model for all tested situations. For short-term (1-day ahead) forecasts, information on higher-frequency signal components was essential to ensure good model performance. However, for forecasting more days ahead, lower-frequency components are needed as input to the proposed hybrid models. The WA models also proved to be effective for eliminating the lags often seen in daily streamflow forecasts obtained by classical ANN models. 

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor L. See

Citation Santos, C.A.G. and Silva, G.B.L., 2013. Daily streamflow forecasting using a wavelet transform and artificial neural network hybrid models. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (2), 312–324.  相似文献   

Consequences on water retention properties of double-porosity features in a compacted silt   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Francesca Casini  Jean Vaunat  Enrique Romero  Augusto Desideri 《Acta Geotechnica》2012,7(2):139-150

The paper deals with an experimental investigation aimed at studying microstructural features and their consequences on water retention properties of statically compacted unsaturated silt. The evolution of the microstructure of the aggregate fabric induced by compaction is investigated by studying the pore size distribution changes under different initial conditions (void ratio and water content). The material used is low plasticity silt from Jossigny near Paris, France. A series of mercury intrusion porosimetry tests (MIP) were performed at different void ratios and water contents to provide microstructural information. The arrangement of aggregation/particles and pore network was also investigated with environmental scanning electron microscopy (ESEM). The MIP data were used to determine the water retention curve on drying for the specific pore network configuration induced on compaction. The MIP data were used to formulate and calibrate a multimodal water retention model for a specific pore network configuration, which is obtained by linear superposition of subcurves of a modified van Genuchten type. The study is then complemented with controlled suction oedometer tests on compacted samples to obtain the water retention properties of the material at two different void ratios. Finally, we compare the water retention properties obtained by the simulated progression of the different pore network configurations induced on the hydraulic path with the water retention properties under suction-controlled conditions. Good agreement between the two methods for the drying path is reached.  相似文献   

IT-OSRA: applying ensemble simulations to estimate the oil spill risk associated to operational and accidental oil spills     

Antonio Augusto Sepp Neves  Nadia Pinardi  Flavio Martins 《Ocean Dynamics》2016,66(8):939-954

Oil Spill Risk Assessments (OSRAs) are widely employed to support decision making regarding oil spill risks. This article adapts the ISO-compliant OSRA framework developed by Sepp Neves et al. (J Environ Manag 159:158–168, 2015) to estimate risks in a complex scenario where uncertainties related to the meteo-oceanographic conditions, where and how a spill could happen exist and the risk computation methodology is not yet well established (ensemble oil spill modeling). The improved method was applied to the Algarve coast, Portugal. Over 50,000 simulations were performed in 2 ensemble experiments to estimate the risks due to operational and accidental spill scenarios associated with maritime traffic. The level of risk was found to be important for both types of scenarios, with significant seasonal variations due to the the currents and waves variability. Higher frequency variability in the meteo-oceanographic variables were also found to contribute to the level of risk. The ensemble results show that the distribution of oil concentrations found on the coast is not Gaussian, opening up new fields of research on how to deal with oil spill risks and related uncertainties.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal variability of seawater properties,current velocity and SPM concentration off Cassino Beach-Rio Grande-Southern Brazil     

Josefa V. Guerra  Marcelo M. Azevedo  Luciana S. Esteves  Susana B. Vinzon  Nelson Violante-Carvalho  Carlos Augusto F. Schettini  Roberto F. Oliveira  Aleksandro R. Zaleski 《Continental Shelf Research》2009

Water column profiles and near-bed time series of pressure, current velocity, suspended-particulate matter (SPM) concentration and seawater temperature and salinity were collected during three short cruises carried out in May 2005 in the shoreface and inner shelf area adjacent to Cassino Beach, southern Brazil. The measurements were part of the Cassino Experiment, a project conducted at an open, sandy coastal area known for the occurrence of patches of fairly large amounts of muddy sediments that are sporadically fluidized, transported onshore and eventually stranded on the beach. The study area is close to the Patos Lagoon mouth, being influenced by its water and suspended-sediment discharge. The presence of the Patos Lagoon outflow on the inner shelf was detected in one of the cruises (May 13) through measurements of near-surface salinity: while close to shore salinity was 29.4, a minimum value of 13.8 was measured at ∼10 km from the coast. Four days later, no trace of the plume was detected in the area. Regarding seawater temperature, no large temporal or spatial variability was documented with measured values ranging from 19.3 to 20 °C. Water column currents were prominently to N and NE, except at the outermost station, located ∼42 km from the coast, where NW-directed flows were observed at surface and mid-depth. Maximum near-bed current velocity oscillated between 18 and 42 cm s⁻¹ in the east–west direction and between 14 and 42 cm s⁻¹ in the north–south direction. Near-surface concentration of SPM oscillated between 11 and 99 mg L⁻¹, in general one order of magnitude lower than near-bed values. However, near-bed concentration of SPM showed large spatial variability: the highest value (2200 mg L⁻¹) was yielded by a water sample collected at ∼8 m water depth, at a station located ∼2 km away from the shoreline; two water samples collected 500 m, apart from this station, yielded SPM concentrations of 148 and 205 mg L⁻¹, one order of magnitude lower. Spectral analyses of near-bed current speed and SPM concentration indicate the relevance of oscillations in the low-frequency (<0.05 Hz) range. Detailed sampling of bottom sediment indicated that in May 2005 the mud patch was centered at ∼8.5 m water depth.  相似文献   

Evaluating and classifying contaminated areas based on loss functions using annealing simulations     

Joaquim C.B. Queiroz  José R. Sturaro  Augusto C.F. Saraiva  Paulo M.B. Landim 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》2009

This paper presents a methodology based on geostatistical theory for quantifying the risks associated with heavy-metal contamination in the harbor area of Santana, Amapá State, Northern Brazil. In this area there were activities related to the commercialization of manganese ore from Serra do Navio. Manganese and arsenic concentrations at unsampled sites were estimated by postprocessing results from stochastic annealing simulations; the simulations were used to test different criteria for optimization, including average, median, and quantiles. For classifying areas as contaminated or uncontaminated, estimated quantiles based on functions of asymmetric loss showed better results than did estimates based on symmetric loss, such as the average or the median. The use of specific loss functions in the decision-making process can reduce the costs of remediation and health maintenance. The highest global health costs were observed for manganese.  相似文献