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21.
Adaptation of the optimal fingerprint method for climate change detection using a well-conditioned covariance matrix estimate 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0
The “optimal fingerprint” method, usually used for detection and attribution studies, requires to know, or, in practice, to
estimate the covariance matrix of the internal climate variability. In this work, a new adaptation of the “optimal fingerprints”
method is presented. The main goal is to allow the use of a covariance matrix estimate based on an observation dataset in
which the number of years used for covariance estimation is close to the number of observed time series. Our adaptation is
based on the use of a regularized estimate of the covariance matrix, that is well-conditioned, and asymptotically more precise,
in the sense of the mean square error. This method is shown to be more powerful than the basic “guess pattern fingerprint”,
and than the classical use of a pseudo-inverted truncation of the empirical covariance matrix. The construction of the detection
test is achieved by using a bootstrap technique particularly well-suited to estimate the internal climate variability in real
world observations. In order to validate the efficiency of the detection algorithm with climate data, the methodology presented
here is first applied with pseudo-observations derived from transient regional climate change scenarios covering the 1960–2099
period. It is then used to perform a formal detection study of climate change over France, analyzing homogenized observed
temperature series from 1900 to 2006. In this case, the estimation of the covariance matrix is only based on a part of the
observation dataset. This new approach allows the confirmation and extension of previous results regarding the detection of
an anthropogenic climate change signal over the country. 相似文献
22.
Julien Vaudan Aurèle Parriaux Laurent Tacher Gianni della Valle 《Eclogae Geologicae Helvetiae》2005,98(3):371-383
The alpine valley of the Haute-Sarine is on several accounts representative of the alluvial aquifers of mountain by its very
environment and its hydrogeologic characteristics. The investigations and the analysis carried out within the framework of
this study enabled us to improve knowledge on the Quaternary filling of the valley and to highlight the preferential supplies
of the aquifer by infiltration of the river and precipitations and also by the underground contributions of evaporitic karsts.
We also could note the opulence of groundwater resources of the Haute-Sarine both from the qualitative and the quantitative
points of view. The knowledge of these typical characteristics of alluvial aquifers of high altitude allowed finally the development
of a concept of management and protection of groundwater resources that falls under a sustainable development policy of the
groundwater storage in the alpine areas.
Manuscrit re?u le 4 février 2003 Révision acceptée le 30 mars 2005 相似文献
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Sustaining low CO 2 emissions pathways to 2100 may rely on electricity production from biomass. We analyze the economic effect of the availability of biomass resources and technologies with and without CCS within a general equilibrium framework. We assess the robustness of bioenergy with and without CCS for reaching the RCP 3.7 target with the hybrid model Imaclim-R. Global consumption is affected by the absence of CCS or biomass options, and biomass is shown to be a possible technological answer to the absence of CCS. As the use of biomass on a large scale might prove unsustainable, we show that early action is a strategy to reduce the need for biomass and enhance economic growth in the long term. 相似文献
26.
Aurélie Germa Xavier Quidelleur Pierre Lahitte Shasa Labanieh Catherine Chauvel 《Quaternary Geochronology》2011,6(3-4):341-355
We present 23 new ages from three volcanic complexes of the Lesser Antilles arc in Martinique Island (French West Indies). These ages obtained with the K–Ar Cassignol–Gillot technique are distributed within the whole Quaternary. They allowed us to reconstruct a detailed history of successive volcanic growth and flank collapse stages. Trois Ilets Volcanism has been active during at least 2 Ma, between 2.35 ± 0.03 Ma and 346 ± 27 ka, with monogenetic volcanoes of basaltic-andesite to andesitic compositions. We here propose that magma mixing, which characterizes this volcanism, could have been initiated between 617 and 346 ka by the activation of arc-parallel and arc-transverse fault systems. Meanwhile, the Carbet complex was active 25 km to the north from 998 ± 14 to 322 ± 6 ka, and was partially destroyed by a flank collapse after 602 ± 10 ka. Together with geochemical data, our ages show that Mount Conil and Mount Pelée volcanoes are parts of the same edifice sharing a single magmatic reservoir. Mount Conil started to emerge before 543 ± 8 ka, and andesites erupted until 127 ± 2 ka, when a flank collapse destroyed the western flank of the edifice, probably triggering the emplacement of Piton Marcel, the last eruption of this first stage. We note that this collapse occurred during the transition from oxygen stages 6 to 5, i.e. during glacial to interglacial change, when eustatic level rapidly increased. After that, and until present, Mount Pelée volcano was built with periods of cone growth intercalated by flank collapse events. We here show that a peak of activity occurred between 550 and 330 ka in western Martinique within the three complexes, which are spaced of 15–25 km. Since 330 ka volcanic activity is limited to the northernmost Mount Conil–Mount Pelée complex. Our data are in agreement with the regional scale observations that the whole recent Lesser Antilles arc was subject to a high volcanic activity since 600 ka, probably linked to an increase in magma production. This permanent establishment of rising magma in regularly spaced batches and tectonically controlled, could explain the individual chemical evolution of each edifice and the different eruptive dynamisms occurring at the same time along the recent arc. 相似文献
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Carlos Roberto Sanquetta Ana Paula Dalla Corte Alexandre Behling Luani Rosa de Oliveira Piva Sylvio Péllico Netto Aurélio Lourenço Rodrigues Mateus Niroh Inoue Sanquetta 《Carbon balance and management》2018,13(1):25
Background
Biomass models are useful for several purposes, especially for quantifying carbon stocks and dynamics in forests. Selecting appropriate equations from a fitted model is a process which can involves several criteria, some widely used and others used to a lesser extent. This study analyzes six selection criteria for models fitted to six sets of individual biomass collected from woody indigenous species of the Tropical Atlantic Rain Forest in Brazil. Six models were examined and the respective fitted equations evaluated by the residual sum of squares, adjusted coefficient of determination, absolute and relative estimates of the standard error of estimate, and Akaike and Schwartz (Bayesian) information criteria. The aim of this study was to analyze the numeric behavior of these model selection criteria and discuss the ease of interpretation of them. The importance of residual analysis in model selection is stressed.Results
The adjusted coefficient of determination (\( R^{2}_{adj.} \)) and the standard error of estimate in percentage (Syx%) are relative model selection criteria and are not affected by sample size and scale of the response variable. The sum of squared residuals (SSR), the absolute standard error of estimate (Syx), the Akaike information criterion and the Schwartz information criterion, in turn, depend on these quantities. The best fit model was always the same within a given data set regardless the model selection criteria considered (except for SSR in two cases), indicating they tend to converge to a common result. However, such criteria are not always closely related across different data sets. General model selection criteria are indicative of the average goodness of fit, but do not capture bias and outlier effects. Graphical residual analysis is a useful tool to this detection and must always be used in model selection.Conclusions
It is concluded that the criteria for model selection tend to lead to a common result, regardless their mathematical formulation and statistical significance. Relative measures of goodness of fitting are easier to interpret than the absolute ones. Careful graphical residual analysis must always be used to confirm the performance of the models.28.
Zhi Zhang Hossein Ghaffarian Bruce MacVicar Lise Vaudor Aurélie Antonio Kristell Michel Hervé Piégay 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(4):822-836
Wood flux (piece number per time interval) is a key parameter for understanding wood budgeting, determining the controlling factors, and managing flood risk in a river basin. Quantitative wood flux data is critically needed to improve the understanding of wood dynamics and estimate wood discharge in rivers. In this study, the streamside videography technique was applied to detect wood passage and measure instantaneous rates of wood transport. The goal was to better understand how wood flux responds to flood and wind events and then predict wood flux. In total, one exceptional wind and seven flood events were monitored on the Ain River, France, and around 24,000 wood pieces were detected visually. It is confirmed that, in general, there is a threshold of wood motion in the river equal to 60% of bankfull discharge. However, in a flood following a windy day, no obvious threshold for wood motion was observed, which confirms that wind is important for the preparation of wood for transport between floods. In two multi-peak floods, around two-thirds of the total amount of wood was delivered on the first peak, which confirms the importance of the time between floods for predicting wood fluxes. Moreover, we found an empirical relation between wood frequency and wood discharge, which is used to estimate the total wood amount produced by each of the floods. The data set is then used to develop a random forest regression model to predict wood frequency as a function of three input variables that are derived from the flow hydrograph. The model calculates the total wood volume either during day or night based on the video monitoring technique for the first time, which expands its utility for wood budgeting in a watershed. A one-to-one link is then established between the fraction of detected pieces of wood and the dimensionless parameter “passing time × frame rate ”, which provides a general guideline for the design of monitoring stations. 相似文献
29.
Jeroen E. Sonke Lars-Eric Heimbürger Aurélien Dommergue 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2013,345(5-6):213-224
Half a century of mercury research has provided scientists and policy makers with a detailed understanding of mercury toxicology, biogeochemical cycling and past and future impacts on human exposure. The complexity of the global biogeochemical mercury cycle has led to repeated and ongoing paradigm shifts in numerous mercury-related disciplines and outstanding questions remain. In this review, we highlight some of the paradigm shifts and questions on mercury toxicity, the risks and benefits of seafood consumption, the source of mercury in seafood, and the Arctic mercury cycle. We see a continued need for research on mercury toxicology and epidemiology, for marine mercury dynamics and ecology, and for a closer collaboration between observational mercury science and mercury modeling in general. As anthropogenic mercury emissions are closely tied to the energy cycle (in particular coal combustion), mercury exposure to humans and wildlife are likely to persist unless drastic emission reductions are put in place. 相似文献
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Aur��lien Bideaud Benoit Belier Alain Benoit Laurent Berg�� Philippe Camus Sophie Collin Louis Dumoulin Christian Hoffmann Stefanos Marnieros Alessandro Monfardini 《Experimental Astronomy》2011,32(2):179-191
Microbolometers are at present the most sensitive detectors for mm and sub-mm Astronomy. They are in use in most of the present instruments in that bandwidth. We have developed filled arrays of NbSi-based planar antenna coupled microbolometers. The fabrication details are given, together with characterization of the NbSi thermometers and optical results. The optical performances are potentially good for ground-based mm-wave astronomy applications, while the overall detectors performances are limited by low-frequency excess noise in the thermometric NbSi high-impedance sensors (Anderson insulator). 相似文献