Sufferer and cause: Indian livestock and climate change     

Smita Sirohi  Axel Michaelowa 《Climatic change》2007,85(3-4):285-298

Climate change poses formidable challenge to the development of livestock sector in India. The anticipated rise in temperature between 2.3 and 4.8°C over the entire country together with increased precipitation resulting from climate change is likely to aggravate the heat stress in dairy animals, adversely affecting their productive and reproductive performance, and hence reducing the total area where high yielding dairy cattle can be economically reared. Given the vulnerability of India to rise in sea level, the impact of increased intensity of extreme events on the livestock sector would be large and devastating for the low-income rural areas. The predicted negative impact of climate change on Indian agriculture would also adversely affect livestock production by aggravating the feed and fodder shortages. The livestock sector which will be a sufferer of climate change is itself a large source of methane emissions, an important greenhouse gas. In India, although the emission rate per animal is much lower than the developed countries, due to vast livestock population the total annual methane emissions are about 9–10 Tg from enteric fermentation and animal wastes.  相似文献   

The response of a turbulent accretion disc to an imposed epicyclic shearing motion     

Ulf Torkelsson  Gordon I. Ogilvie  Axel Brandenburg  James E. Pringle  Åke Nordlund  Robert F. Stein 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2000,318(1):47-57

We excite an epicyclic motion, the amplitude of which depends on the vertical position, z , in a simulation of a turbulent accretion disc. An epicyclic motion of this kind may be caused by a warping of the disc. By studying how the epicyclic motion decays, we can obtain information about the interaction between the warp and the disc turbulence. A high-amplitude epicyclic motion decays first by exciting inertial waves through a parametric instability, but its subsequent exponential damping may be reproduced by a turbulent viscosity. We estimate the effective viscosity parameter, α _v, pertaining to such a vertical shear. We also gain new information on the properties of the disc turbulence in general, and measure the usual viscosity parameter, α _h, pertaining to a horizontal (Keplerian) shear. We find that, as is often assumed in theoretical studies, α _v is approximately equal to α _h and both are much less than unity, for the field strengths achieved in our local box calculations of turbulence. In view of the smallness (∼0.01) of α _v and α _h we conclude that for β p _gas p _mag∼10 the time-scale for diffusion or damping of a warp is much shorter than the usual viscous time-scale. Finally, we review the astrophysical implications.  相似文献   

Effects of arrival time errors on traveltime tomography     

Axel H.E. Röhm  Harmen Bijwaard  Wim Spakman  & Jeannot Trampert 《Geophysical Journal International》2000,142(1):270-276

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A multi‐system geochronology in the Ad‐3 borehole,Pannonian Basin (Hungary) with implications for dating volcanic rocks by low‐temperature thermochronology and for interpretation of (U–Th)/He data          下载免费PDF全文

Martin Danišík  László Fodor  István Dunkl  Axel Gerdes  János Csizmeg  Mária Hámor‐Vidó  Noreen J. Evans 《地学学报》2015,27(4):258-269

Independent geochronological and thermal modelling approaches are applied to a biostratigraphically exceptionally well‐controlled borehole, Alcsútdoboz‐3 (Ad‐3), in order to constrain the age of Cenozoic geodynamic events in the western Pannonian Basin and to test the efficacy of the methods for dating volcanic rocks. Apatite fission track and zircon U–Pb data show two volcanic phases of Middle Eocene (43.4–39.0 Ma) and Early Oligocene (32.72 ± 0.15 Ma) age respectively. Apatite (U–Th)/He ages (23.8–14.8 Ma) and independent thermal and subsidence history models reveal a brief period of heating to 55–70 °C at ~17 Ma caused by an increased heat‐flow related to crustal thinning and mantle upwelling. Our results demonstrate that, contrary to common perception, the apatite (U–Th)/He method is likely to record ‘apparent’ or ‘mixed’ ages resulting from subsequent thermal events rather than ‘cooling’ or ‘eruption’ ages directly related to distinct geological events. It follows that a direct conversion of ‘apparent’ or ‘mixed’ (U‐Th)/He ages into cooling, exhumation or erosion rates is incorrect.  相似文献   

Roving revisited,towards an optimum throughfall sampling design          下载免费PDF全文

Axel Ritter  Carlos M. Regalado 《水文研究》2014,28(1):123-133

Additional aspects regarding the optimum fixed and roving sampling techniques, to those already explored in a previous authors’ throughfall study, are further investigated here. The roving technique consists in the random repositioning, with a frequency f_r, of N throughfall gauges among M positions (M > N), oppositely to the fixed or stationary arrangement where N = M. Both fixed and roving optimum sampling techniques of 100 monitored throughfall events sampled with 200 fixed gauges under a semideciduous tropical rain forest in Panama were investigated by means of Monte‐Carlo numerical experiments. Mean dispersion was shown to be always smaller in the roving versus the fixed gauge arrangement, independently of the relocation frequency studied (f_r = 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1), such that all roving schemes with N ≥ 50 gauges lay within ±5% of the mean cumulative throughfall. Results indicated that a low variability, high precision, and accuracy are obtained with a modest relocation frequency f_r = 0.2 (i.e. a relocation every five episodes of the original 100 measured events) and N = 30 roving gauges, with no significant improvement worth the extra field work beyond f_r > 0.2 and N >30. Only by increasing the number of roving positions from M < < 200 to M = 200, the precision and accuracy of the mean estimate were improved without comprising additional labour. Hence, a roving sampling scheme which relocates gauges over completely new fresh sites each roving cycle is recommended for future throughfall studies. Finally, we designed an a priori sampling strategy which permitted us to conclude that using only the first 20 out of the total 100 measuring events, for the remaining 80 throughfall field measurements, N = 40 roving gauges (i.e. five time less than the originally 200 gauges displayed) would have been sufficient for ensuring ≤5% error, expressed as percentage of the mean cumulative throughfall. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Cosmogenic isotope burial dating of fluvial sediments from the Lower Rhine Embayment,Germany     

Andreas Dehnert  Oliver Kracht  Frank Preusser  Naki Akçar  Hans Axel Kemna  Peter W. Kubik  Christian Schlüchter 《Quaternary Geochronology》2011,6(3-4):313-325

Cosmogenic isotope burial dating, using ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al, was applied to Plio–Pleistocene fluvial successions from the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany. The approach consists of three principal steps: (1) measurement of cosmogenic nuclides in depth profiles, (2) modelling of hypothetical nuclide concentrations based on a first-order conceptualisation of the geological context and the principal succession of depositions and subsequent erosional and burial phases, and (3) using parameter estimation to identify values for the a priori unknown model parameters (burial age, initial nuclide concentrations, terrace erosion rates) that result in minimal disagreement between hypothetical and measured nuclide concentrations.The Late Pliocene Kieseloolite Formation was dated to 3650 ± 1490 ka and the Early Pleistocene Waalre Formation to 900 ± 280 ka. The unconformably overlying Upper Terrace Formation revealed ages of 740 ± 210 ka and 750 ± 250 ka for the two different sites. These findings are in good agreement with independent age control derived by bio-, magneto-, and litho-stratigraphy. Furthermore, identifiability and uncertainty analysis reveal a relationship between burial depth and sensitivity of isotope concentrations to burial age and erosion rate. Our results indicate that using shallower buried samples would enable a considerably more robust estimation of the burial age and the terrace erosion rate. Uncertainties arose mainly from nuclide measurements, and not from the uncertainties derived from modelling or insufficient knowledge of nuclide production and decay properties.  相似文献   

Zircon-scale insights into the history of a Supervolcano,Bishop Tuff,Long Valley,California, with implications for the Ti-in-zircon geothermometer   总被引：7，自引：6，他引：1  

Mary R. Reid  Jorge A. Vazquez  Axel K. Schmitt 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2011,161(2):293-311

Zircon has the outstanding capacity to record chronological, thermal, and chemical information, including the storage history of zoned silicic magma reservoirs like the one responsible for the Bishop Tuff of eastern California, USA. Our novel ion microprobe approach reveals that Bishop zircon rims with diverse chemical characteristics surround intermediate domains with broadly similar compositions. The highest Y, REE, U, and Th concentrations tend to accompany the largest excesses in Y + REE³⁺:P beyond what can be explained by xenotime substitution in zircon. Apparent Ti-in-zircon temperatures of <720°C for zircon rims are distinctly lower than most of the range in eruption temperatures, as estimated from FeTi-oxide equilibria and zircon solubility at quench. While permissive of crystallization of zircon at near-solidus conditions, the low Ti-in-zircon temperatures are probably better explained by sources of inaccuracy in the temperature estimates. After apparently nucleating from different melts, zircons from across the Bishop Tuff compositional spectrum may have evolved to broadly similar chemical and thermal conditions and therefore it is possible that there was no significant thermal gradient in the magma reservoir at some stage in its evolution. There is also no compelling evidence for punctuated heat ± chemical influxes during the intermediate stages of zircon growth. Judging by the zircon record, the main volume of the erupted magma evolved normally by secular cooling but the latest erupted portion is characterized by a reversal in chemistry that appears to indicate perfusion of the magma reservoir by—or zircon entrainment in—a less evolved melt from the one in which the zircons had previously resided.  相似文献   

Provenance of Neoproterozoic and early Paleozoic siliciclastic rocks of the Teplá-Barrandian unit (Bohemian Massif): Evidence from U–Pb detrital zircon ages     

Kerstin Drost  Axel Gerdes  Teresa Jeffries  Ulf Linnemann  Craig Storey 《Gondwana Research》2011,19(1):213-231

New LA-ICP-MS U–Pb detrital zircon ages from Ediacaran and Paleozoic siliciclastic rocks are used to constrain provenance and paleogeographic affinities of the Teplá-Barrandian unit (TBU) in the centre of the Bohemian Massif (Central Europe, Czech Republic). The samples taken span the period from ≤ 635 Ma to ～ 385 Ma and permit recognition of provenance changes that reflect changes in geotectonic regime. Detrital zircon age spectra of two Ediacaran, one Lower Cambrian and three Upper Ordovician samples resemble the ages known from the NW African proportion of Gondwana, particularly the Trans-Saharan belt, while three rocks from higher Lower Cambrian to Lowermost Ordovician strata contain detritus that may have been derived exclusively from local sources. The age spectrum of the Devonian rock is a combination of the NW Gondwanan and local features. These new findings in combination with a wide range of published data are in agreement with a Neoproterozoic subduction-related setting at the margin of Gondwana followed by a Cambrian/Early Ordovician rifting stage and an Ordovician passive margin setting. Furthermore the data are in favour of a position of the TBU at the Gondwanan margin throughout pre-Variscan times.  相似文献   

Projections of climate change impacts on river flood conditions in Germany by combining three different RCMs with a regional eco-hydrological model     

Shaochun Huang  Fred F. Hattermann  Valentina Krysanova  Axel Bronstert 《Climatic change》2013,116(3-4):631-663

A general increase in precipitation has been observed in Germany in the last century, and potential changes in flood generation and intensity are now at the focus of interest. The aim of the paper is twofold: a) to project the future flood conditions in Germany accounting for various river regimes (from pluvial to nival-pluvial regimes) and under different climate scenarios (the high, A2, low, B1, and medium, A1B, emission scenarios) and b) to investigate sources of uncertainty generated by climate input data and regional climate models. Data of two dynamical Regional Climate Models (RCMs), REMO (REgional Model) and CCLM (Cosmo-Climate Local Model), and one statistical-empirical RCM, Wettreg (Wetterlagenbasierte Regionalisierungsmethode: weather-type based regionalization method), were applied to drive the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model), which was previously validated for 15 gauges in Germany. At most of the gauges, the 95 and 99 percentiles of the simulated discharge using SWIM with observed climate data had a good agreement with the observed discharge for 1961–2000 (deviation within ±10 %). However, the simulated discharge had a bias when using RCM climate as input for the same period. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions were fitted to the annual maximum series of river runoff for each realization for the control and scenario periods, and the changes in flood generation over the whole simulation time were analyzed. The 50-year flood values estimated for two scenario periods (2021–2060, 2061–2100) were compared to the ones derived from the control period using the same climate models. The results driven by the statistical-empirical model show a declining trend in the flood level for most rivers, and under all climate scenarios. The simulations driven by dynamical models give various change directions depending on region, scenario and time period. The uncertainty in estimating high flows and, in particular, extreme floods remains high, due to differences in regional climate models, emission scenarios and multi-realizations generated by RCMs.  相似文献   

Fresh water balance of the Gulf Stream system in a regional model study     

R. Gerdes  A. Biastoch  R. Redler 《Climate Dynamics》2001,18(1-2):17-27

 We investigate the dependence of surface fresh water fluxes in the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current (NAC) area on the position of the stream axis which is not well represented in most ocean models. To correct this shortcoming, strong unrealistic surface fresh water fluxes have to be applied that lead to an incorrect salt balance of the current system. The unrealistic surface fluxes required by the oceanic component may force flux adjustments and may cause fictitious long-term variability in coupled climate models. To identify the important points in the correct representation of the salt balance of the Gulf Stream a regional model of the northwestern part of the subtropical gyre has been set up. Sensitivity studies are made where the westward flow north of the Gulf Stream and its properties are varied. Increasing westward volume transport leads to a southward migration of the Gulf Stream separation point along the American coast. The salinity of the inflow is essential for realistic surface fresh water fluxes and the water mass distribution. The subpolar–subtropical connection is important in two ways: The deep dense flow from the deep water mass formation areas sets up the cyclonic circulation cell north of the Gulf Stream. The surface and mid depth flow of fresh water collected at high northern latitudes is mixed into the Gulf Stream and compensates for the net evaporation at the surface. Received: 19 September 2000 / Accepted: 5 February 2001  相似文献