A climate change simulation starting from 1935     

U Cubasch  G C Hegerl  A Hellbach  H Höck  U Mikolajewicz  B D Santer  R Voss 《Climate Dynamics》1995,11(2):71-84

Due to restrictions in the available computing resources and a lack of suitable observational data, transient climate change experiments with global coupled ocean-atmosphere models have been started from an initial state at equilibrium with the present day forcing. The historical development of greenhouse gas forcing from the onset of industrialization until the present has therefore been neglected. Studies with simplified models have shown that this cold start error leads to a serious underestimation of the anthropogenic global warming. In the present study, a 150-year integration has been carried out with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model starting from the greenhouse gas concentration observed in 1935, i.e., at an early time of industrialization. The model was forced with observed greenhouse gas concentrations up to 1985, and with the equivalent C0₂ concentrations stipulated in Scenario A (Business as Usual) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change from 1985 to 2085. The early starting date alleviates some of the cold start problems. The global mean near surface temperature change in 2085 is about 0.3 K (ca. 10%) higher in the early industrialization experiment than in an integration with the same model and identical Scenario A greenhouse gas forcing, but with a start date in 1985. Comparisons between the experiments with early and late start dates show considerable differences in the amplitude of the regional climate change patterns, particularly for sea level. The early industrialization experiment can be used to obtain a first estimate of the detection time for a greenhouse-gas-induced near-surface temperature signal. Detection time estimates are obtained using globally and zonally averaged data from the experiment and a long control run, as well as principal component time series describing the evolution of the dominant signal and noise modes. The latter approach yields the earliest detection time (in the decade 1990–2000) for the time-evolving near-surface temperature signal. For global-mean temperatures or for temperatures averaged between 45°N and 45°S, the signal detection times are in the decades 2015–2025 and 2005–2015, respectively. The reduction of the cold start error in the early industrialization experiment makes it possible to separate the near-surface temperature signal from the noise about one decade earlier than in the experiment starting in 1985. We stress that these detection times are only valid in the context of the coupled model's internally-generated natural variability, which possibly underestimates low frequency fluctuations and does not incorporate the variance associated with changes in external forcing factors, such as anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, solar variability or volcanic dust.  相似文献   

The age of the Kagenfels granite (northern Vosges) and its bearing on the intrusion scheme of late Variscan granitoids     

J. C. Hess  H. J. Lippolt  B. Kober 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1995,84(3):568-577

In the Saxothuringian part of the Vosges (France), a first series of Variscan plutonic rocks (diorites to granites) has been intruded by several younger granites. Rocks of both the older generations have been cross-cut by the late orogenic Kagenfels granite. The averages of the hitherto published mineral ages of the earlier rock generations are 331 and 334 Ma, respectively, whereas Rb-Sr and K-Ar dates around 290 Ma have been reported for the Kagenfels granite. Because of the unlikely large age hiatus, a redetermination of the intrusion age of the Kagenfels granite formation appeared to be irrevocable. The newly obtained mineral ages on the Kagenfels granite (K-Ar and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar biotite ages as well as single zircon radiogenic ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb data: 331 ± 5 Ma) are about 40 Ma older than the previous results. They are interpreted as giving the time of emplacement of the Kagenfels granite during the latest Visan. The mineral ages of the earlier plutonic rocks in this part of the Variscan Orogeny in all probability are not significantly different from their ages of intrusion. Therefore the age concordance of all three granitoid generations constrains a rather narrow time interval of orogenic magmatism close to the Lower-Upper Carboniferous boundary.  相似文献   

A search for ultra-high energy counterparts to gamma-ray bursts     

S. P. Plunkett  M. Delaney  B. McBreen  K. J. Hurley  C. T. O'Sullivan 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1995,231(1-2):271-276

A small air shower array operating over many years has been used to search for ultra-high energy (UHE) gamma radiation ( 50 TeV) associated with gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by the BATSE instrument on the Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory (CGRO). Upper limits for a one minute interval after each burst are presented for seven GRBs located with zenith angles < 20°. A 4.3 excess over background was observed between 10 and 20 minutes following the onset of a GRB on 11 May 1991. The confidence level that this is due to a real effect and not a background fluctuation is 99.8%. If this effect is real then cosmological models are excluded for this burst because of absorption of UHE gamma rays by the intergalactic radiation fields.  相似文献   

Search for low energyν e,μ,τ andv e,μ,τ in coincidence with BATSE gamma ray bursts     

M. Aglietta  P. Antonioli  G. Badino  G. Bologna  C. Castagnoli  A. Castellina  V. L. Dadykin  W. Fulgione  P. Galeotti  F. F. Khalchukov  E. V. Korolkova  P. V. Kortchaguin  V. B. Kortchaguin  V. A. Kudryavtsev  A. S. Malguin  L. Periale  V. G. Ryassny  O. G. Ryazhskaya  O. Saavedra  G. Trinchero  S. Vernetto  C. Vigorito  V. F. Yakushev  G. T. Zatsepin 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1995,231(1-2):355-358

A search for low energy neutrinos of all flavours in correlation with 553 ray bursts detected by BATSE aboard the Compton Observatory has been performed by the LSD (Liquid Scintillator Detector) neutrino telescope. No excess ofe,, orv _e,, candidate has been detected by LSD during the time interval in which BATSE detected the 90% of the photon flux for any of the GRBs analyzed. Upper limits on the neutrino fluxes are given in the paper.  相似文献   

Interferometric observations of HCN and CN towards carbon stars     

M. Lindqvist  R. Lucas  H. Olofsson  A. Omont  K. Eriksson  B. Gustafsson 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1995,224(1-2):501-502

Using the IRAM interferometer we have observed four carbon stars (U Cam, CIT6, Y CVn, IRC+40540) in the HCN(J=1 0) and CN(N=1 0) lines. Here we present some results for CIT6 and U Cam.  相似文献   

The effect of an optically thin region on stability of an accretion disk around a supermassive black hole     

B. F. Liu  G. Z. Xie  K. F. Ji 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1995,225(2):299-314

We analyse conditions of the innermost portion of an accretion disk and establish a set of equations for this region. A stable innermost region may exist, which can probably explain the observed UV and X-ray spectra, avoiding the unstable emission. We then discuss the detailed radial structure of a disk around a black hole for typical AGN parameters and obtain different kinds of- relationships for different regions of a disk. On the basis of this, we discuss the stability. A new type of cycle is present, which we call a double S shaped cycle. In this cycle, the extent of accretion rate variability is much larger than that in dwarf nova cycles. This probably solves the problem of violent variability of AGN. In the meantime, the very high accretion rate at the hottest state in limit cycles in the unstable region may provide continuous injection of matter to the jet and power the relativistic motion of the jet.  相似文献   

Noise storms and the structure of microwave emission of solar active regions     

V. M. Bogod  V. Garimov  G. B. Gelfreikh  K. R. Lang  R. F. Willson  J. N. Kile 《Solar physics》1995,160(1):133-149

Solar radio and microwave sources were observed with the Very Large Array (VLA) and the RATAN-600, providing high spatial resolution at 91 cm (VLA) and detailed spectral and polarization data at microwave wavelengths (1.7 to 20 cm - RATAN). The radio observations have been compared with images from the Soft X-ray Telescope (SXT) aboard theYohkoh satellite and with full-disk phoptospheric magnetic field data from the Kislovodsk Station of the Pulkovo Observatory. The VLA observations at 91 cm show fluctuating nonthermal noise storm sources in the middle corona. The active regions that were responsible for the noise storms generally had weaker microwave emission, fainter thermal soft X-ray emission, as well as less intense coronal magnetic fields than those associated with other active regions on the solar disk. The noise storms did, however, originate in active regions whose magnetic fields and radiation properties were evolving on timescales of days or less. We interpret these noise storms in terms of accelerated particles trapped in radiation belts above or near active regions, forming a decimetric coronal halo. The particles trapped in the radiation belts may be the source of other forms of nonthermal radio emission, while also providing a reservoir from which energetic particles may drain down into lower-lying magnetic structures.Presented at the CESRA-Workshop on Coronal Magnetic Energy Release at Caputh near Potsdam in May 1994.  相似文献   

Energy release in a prominence-loaded flaring loop     

M. S. Wheatland  D. B. Melrose 《Solar physics》1995,159(1):137-141

Zaitsev and Stepanov (1991, 1992) proposed a mechanism for energy release in solar flares that involves the intrusion of dense prominence material into a coronal loop. The resulting non-steady state conditions are claimed to increase the resistance of the loop by 8–10 orders of magnitude. It is shown here that the dramatic increase in resistance calculated by Zaitsev and Stepanov depends on a gross overestimate of the of the magnitude of the magnetic force in the loop prior to the flare trigger. A more realistic estimate of the increase due to the mechanism suggests that it is by no more than about four orders of magnitude. As a consequence, the prominence-loading mechanism does not provide a tenable flare model.  相似文献   

The role of flares, CMEs and CME shocks in the generation of solar energetic proton events   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

R. Pérez Enríquez  B. Mendoza 《Solar physics》1995,160(2):353-362

We examined solar energetic proton (SEP) events associated with intense H flares. We located these flares on the solar disk and obtained their distribution in heliographic longitude as well as their angular distance distribution with respect to the neutral lines corresponding to the heliospheric current sheet at 2.5R. We found that the SEP-associated H flares tend to occur in active regions at the feet of those helmet streamers which form the heliomagnetic equator and are related to coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and CME shocks. We discuss the possible role of flares, CMEs and CME shocks in generating SEPs.  相似文献   

TVZHR profile for the 1991 Perseid shower     

R. L. Hawkes  D. E. B. Fleming 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1995,68(1-3):303-310

Image intensified video detection systems were used to observe the 1991 Perseid meteor shower from two locations in eastern Canada. In 29.6 hours of total observing time a total of 668 meteors were detected, of which 403 were Perseids. We derived a profile of TVZHR (television zenithal hourly rate) values for the 1991 Perseid shower over the solar longitude (epoch 2000) interval 138°51 to 141°01. The apparent limiting stellar magnitudes of the observing systems were +9.4 and +8.8 (corresponding to limiting meteor magnitudes for our geometry ranging from +8.7 to +7.0). Within the observing period, the maximum TVZHR rate was approximately 1600, and occurred at solar longitude 139.9°. This is in good agreement with the second peak observed by visual observers. The data suggest that TVZHR values should be divided by a factor of approximately 5 to compare TVZHR and ZHR values.  相似文献