Hydrological modelling using data from monthly GCMs in a regional catchment          下载免费PDF全文

Renji Remesan  Tim Bellerby  Lynne Frostick 《水文研究》2014,28(8):3241-3263

This study demonstrates the use of spatially downscaled, monthly general circulation model (GCM) rainfall and temperature data to drive the established HyMOD hydrological model to evaluate the prospective effects of climate change on the fluvial run‐off of the River Derwent basin in the UK. The evaluation results of this monthly hydrological model using readily available, monthly GCM data are consistent with studies on nearby catchments employing high‐temporal resolution data, indicating that useful hydro‐climatic planning studies may be possible using standard datasets and modest computational resources. HyMOD was calibrated against 5 km² gridded UK Climate Projections dataset data and then driven using monthly spatially interpolated (~5 km²) outputs from Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC‐SRES) A2a and B2a covering the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Results for both GCMs project a decrease in annual run‐off in both GCM models and scenarios with higher values in the summer/autumn months, whereas an increase in the later winter months. Both Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis show higher ranges of uncertainty during the winter season with higher values of run‐off associated with December in all three simulation periods and two scenarios. A seasonal comparison of run‐off simulations shows that both GCMs give similar results in summer and autumn, whereas disparities due to GCM uncertainties are more conspicuous in winter and spring. In this study, both the GCMs under A2a scenario have demonstrated the high possibility of time shift in monthly average peak run‐offs in the Derwent River by 2080s in comparison with the early 21st century. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Ensemble smoothing of land subsidence measurements for reservoir geomechanical characterization          下载免费PDF全文

Domenico Baù  Massimiliano Ferronato  Giuseppe Gambolati  Pietro Teatini  Ayman Alzraiee 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2015,39(2):207-228

Geomechanical models are often used to predict the impact on land surface of fluid withdrawal from deep reservoirs, as well as investigating measures for mitigation. The ability to accurately simulate surface displacements, however, is often impaired by limited information on the geomechanical parameters characterizing the geological formations of interest. In this study, we employ an ensemble smoother, a data assimilation algorithm, to provide improved estimates of reservoir parameters through assimilation of measurements of both horizontal and vertical surface displacement into geomechanical model results. The method leverages the demonstrated potential of remote sensing techniques developed in the last decade to provide accurate displacement data for large areas of the land surface. For evaluation purposes, the methodology is applied to the case of a disk‐shaped reservoir embedded in a homogeneous, isotropic, and linearly elastic half space, subject to a uniform change in fluid pressure. Multiple sources of uncertainty are investigated, including the radius, R, the thickness, h, and the depth, c, of the reservoir; the pore pressure change, Δp; porous medium's vertical uniaxial compressibility, c_M, and Poisson's ratio, ν, and the ratio, s, between the compressibilities of the medium during loading and unloading cycles. Results from all simulations show that the ensemble smoother has the capability to effectively reduce the uncertainty associated with those parameters to which the variability and the spatial distribution of land surface displacements are most sensitive, namely, R, c, c_M, and s. These analyses demonstrate that the estimation of these parameters values depends on the number of measurements assimilated and the error assigned to the measurement values. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

川西地区地质灾害发育特征与时空分布规律          下载免费PDF全文

白永健  铁永波  孟铭杰  熊小辉  高延超  葛华  巴仁基  徐伟 《沉积与特提斯地质》2022,42(4):666-674

川西地区受青藏高原隆升和发育于青藏高原的大江大河深切割等作用,共发育地质灾害16411处,以滑坡和泥石流为主,是我国地质灾害高风险地区。本文采用资料收集、数理统计、Arcgis软件分析等方法分析发现,川西地质灾害具有成因机制复杂,突发性、群发性与链生性、危害大等特点。形成机理差异大,滑坡变形模式以滑移-拉裂、蠕滑-剪断、倾倒折断等模式为主;泥石流形成机理主要为土力-水力驱动型和堵溃型;崩塌失稳主要表现为滑移式、倾倒式和坠落式。发育分布规律在低山和中山区呈带状,和沿活动断裂带和深切河谷呈线状集中分布;受地震和强降雨影响,地质灾害年际变化大,2008、2009、2013年、2017年地质灾害频发、高发和群发期。  相似文献   

西藏昌都白格滑坡斜坡地质结构特征及成因机制          下载免费PDF全文

曹鹏  黎应书  李宗亮  巴仁基  张世涛 《地球科学》2021,46(9):3397-3409

在西藏昌都市江达县波罗乡发生的两次高位大型滑坡,形成堰塞体阻断金沙江,其溃决洪水对下游造成了巨大损失.本文基于野外地质调查与工程验证、遥感影像、倾斜摄影测量、岩体微观特征,结合区域地质资料进行分析研究.结果表明:(1)白格滑坡发育于金沙江构造混杂岩带,坡体属于河谷型构造破碎松散体;(2)坡体物质主要由弱变形构造透镜体岩块和强变形错动带(糜棱岩带、碎裂岩带、断层泥)组成,镜下岩石结构破坏严重,岩石强度显著降低;(3)断层破碎带控制滑坡体两侧及后缘边界,为滑坡提供了侧向及后缘的切割面;(4)不连续错动带为白格滑坡的滑动层,在重力卸荷作用下发生贯通,导致坡体发生多期次崩滑;(5)综合坡体失稳启动分析,白格滑坡为"推移式+牵引式"混合型滑坡;(6)白格滑坡是在内动力和外动力耦合作用相互交替下促进形成,加之金沙江对坡脚掏蚀,松散体在重力卸荷作用下剪切破坏致使滑坡发生.白格滑坡事件可为研究金沙江构造混杂岩带中大型滑坡形成机制提供依据,同时也为该区域防灾减灾研究提供理论指导.   相似文献   

Orbit determination with the two-body integrals: III     

G. F. Gronchi  G. Baù  S. Marò 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2015,123(2):105-122

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重庆地区近10年酸雨时空分布和季节变化特征分析   总被引：10，自引：1，他引：9  

巴金  汤洁  王淑凤  徐晓斌 《气象》2008,34(9):81-88

利用2005年重庆各区县31个观测站降水的pH值资料分析了当年整个地区的降水酸度的空间分布和季节变化特征,并选取中国气象局酸雨观测网中沙坪坝、涪陵、万县、奉节和巴东5个观测站点1997年至2006年的酸雨观测数据,对重庆地区近10年来酸雨的时空分布特征和季节变化情况进行了统计分析.研究结果表明:重庆地区降水酸性和电导率的地区间差异较大,降水酸性的季节变化较明显,冷季(秋、冬)较暖季(春、夏)要强.西南部降水酸性较强,受污染程度也较严重,但没有明显的变化趋势;东北部大多为弱酸性降水,且受污染程度也较轻,但是日趋酸化和污染加重的趋势却较明显,且季节变化尤为明显,其中夏秋两季pH值的明显减小是其近10年来酸化加重的主要原因.涪陵的数据明显不同,酸性降水频率较低,pH值偏高的同时电导率也偏高,2001年前后情况尤为明显,可能受局地因素的影响比较大.  相似文献   

2005年南京市PM_(10)浓度时间序列分析   总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4  

任永建  周锁铨  石顺吉  拉巴 《气象科学》2009,29(3)

根据南京市2005年的PM10日均浓度和气象观测资料,利用Maflab小波分析工具,对PM10浓度的年时间序列进行分析,得出了该地区PM10日均浓度的变化规律：2—5月较大,6-9月较小,10—12月较大;并且全年共有5个突变点。结合HYSPLIT4污染扩散模式,对污染源进行追踪,结果表明：造成南京市大气污染主要有局地污染物的排放和外来污染物的输送两种类型;在垂直方向上,污染物的长距离输送一直稳定在低层。  相似文献   

四川泸定县泥石流灾害成因、特征与防治建议   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

倪化勇  李宗亮  巴仁基  刘宇杰 《工程地质学报》2010,18(1):91

泸定县地处川西高原与四川盆地的过渡地带,地质环境条件复杂,分布泥石流沟127条,发育密度054条10km-2。在遥感解译和地面调查基础上,论述了泸定县泥石流灾害成因、发生特征、危害和发展趋势,提出了相关防治建议。(1)成因表现为复杂的断裂构造导致流域内松散物源丰富,较大的相对高差提供了良好势能条件,而汛期集中强降雨则提供了动能条件,且雨量条件中当日雨量与前期有效降雨量之间具有幂函数关系; (2)发生特征表现出典型的空间群发性(包括2005-06-30群发性泥石流、2005-08-11群发性泥石流和2006-07-14群发性泥石流)与时间的夜发性; (3)危害方式主要包括淤埋、冲毁、侵蚀、堵河4种,泥石流已造成74人死亡; (4)发展趋势表现为泥石流沟多处于形成期和发展期(113条,占89%),发生的年际准周期由20a缩短至不足10a,且发生条(次)由4条(次)增加至44条次(2005年); (5)泸定县泥石流防治的突出问题表现为城镇泥石流问题、泥石流堵塞主河问题、风景区泥石流问题与冲沟泥石流问题,建议通过科学规划、风险防御体系构建、土木工程治理、监测预警等措施予以防御。  相似文献   

Confidence Intervals of Quantiles in Hydrology Computed by an Analytical Method     

Baâ  Khalidou M.  Díaz-Delgado  Carlos  Caârsteanu  Alin 《Natural Hazards》2001,24(1):1-12

Fitting probability distributions to hydrologic data samples is widely used for quantile estimation purposes. The estimated quantile (X^_T) is related to a return period (T). The confidence interval associated with each of the estimates has been calculated empirically, up until now, supposing that the quantile estimator is normally distributed. In this study, it is shown that the confidence interval follows a normal distribution only in the central part of the distribution. The real confidence limits are computed analytically, by defining and integrating the probability density function of the confidence interval. The results with an important number of hydrologic samples show that the upper confidence limits are significantly underestimated towards the tail of the distribution, when determined using the normality approximation for the quantile estimator.  相似文献   

兰州盛夏大降水短期预报     

周玉素  巴特尔 《干旱气象》1995,(4)

根据预报员的思路，运用专家系统匹配方法，依次对大降水的环流场、影响系统、高低空物理量配置等建立推理规则，然后输入计算机算出结果。  相似文献