Can climate variability information constrain a hydrological model for an ungauged Costa Rican catchment?          下载免费PDF全文

Beatriz Quesada‐Montano  Ida K. Westerberg  Diana Fuentes‐Andino  Hugo G. Hidalgo  Sven Halldin 《水文研究》2018,32(6):830-846

Long‐term hydrological data are key to understanding catchment behaviour and for decision making within water management and planning. Given the lack of observed data in many regions worldwide, such as Central America, hydrological models are an alternative for reproducing historical streamflow series. Additional types of information—to locally observed discharge—can be used to constrain model parameter uncertainty for ungauged catchments. Given the strong influence that climatic large‐scale processes exert on streamflow variability in the Central American region, we explored the use of climate variability knowledge as process constraints to constrain the simulated discharge uncertainty for a Costa Rican catchment, assumed to be ungauged. To reduce model uncertainty, we first rejected parameter relationships that disagreed with our understanding of the system. Then, based on this reduced parameter space, we applied the climate‐based process constraints at long‐term, inter‐annual, and intra‐annual timescales. In the first step, we reduced the initial number of parameters by 52%, and then, we further reduced the number of parameters by 3% with the climate constraints. Finally, we compared the climate‐based constraints with a constraint based on global maps of low‐flow statistics. This latter constraint proved to be more restrictive than those based on climate variability (further reducing the number of parameters by 66% compared with 3%). Even so, the climate‐based constraints rejected inconsistent model simulations that were not rejected by the low‐flow statistics constraint. When taken all together, the constraints produced constrained simulation uncertainty bands, and the median simulated discharge followed the observed time series to a similar level as an optimized model. All the constraints were found useful in constraining model uncertainty for an—assumed to be—ungauged basin. This shows that our method is promising for modelling long‐term flow data for ungauged catchments on the Pacific side of Central America and that similar methods can be developed for ungauged basins in other regions where climate variability exerts a strong control on streamflow variability.  相似文献   

Forced oscillation measurements of seismic wave attenuation and stiffness moduli dispersion in glycerine-saturated Berea sandstone     

Samuel Chapman  Jan V. M. Borgomano  Hanjun Yin  Jerome Fortin  Beatriz Quintal 《Geophysical Prospecting》2019,67(4):956-968

Fluid pressure diffusion occurring on the microscopic scale is believed to be a significant source of intrinsic attenuation of mechanical waves propagating through fully saturated porous rocks. The so-called squirt flow arises from compressibility heterogeneities in the microstructure of the rocks. To study squirt flow experimentally at seismic frequencies the forced oscillation method is the most adequate, but such studies are still scarce. Here we present the results of forced hydrostatic and axial oscillation experiments on dry and glycerine-saturated Berea sandstone, from which we determine the dynamic stiffness moduli and attenuation at micro-seismic and seismic frequencies (0.004–30 Hz). We observe frequency-dependent attenuation and the associated moduli dispersion in response to the drained–undrained transition (∼0.1 Hz) and squirt flow (>3 Hz), which are in fairly good agreement with the results of the corresponding analytical solutions. The comparison with very similar experiments performed also on Berea sandstone in addition shows that squirt flow can potentially be a source of wave attenuation across a wide range of frequencies because of its sensitivity to small variations in the rock microstructure, especially in the aspect ratio of micro-cracks or grain contacts.  相似文献   

Sparse Bayesian linearized amplitude-versus-angle inversion     

Amir Mollajan  Hossein Memarian  Beatriz Quintal 《Geophysical Prospecting》2019,67(7):1745-1763

The technique of seismic amplitude-versus-angle inversion has been widely used to estimate lithology and fluid properties in seismic exploration. The amplitude-versus-angle inversion problem is intrinsically ill-posed and generally stabilized by the use of L2-norm regularization methods but with drawback of smoothing important boundaries between adjacent layers. In this study, we propose a sparse Bayesian linearized solution for amplitude-versus-angle inversion problem to preserve the sharp geological interfaces. In this regard, a priori constraint term with two regularization functions is presented: the sparse constraint regularization and the low-frequency model information. In addition, to obtain high-resolution reflectivity estimation, the model parameters decorrelation technique combined with dipole decomposition method is employed. We validate the applicability of the presented method by both synthetic and real seismic data from the Gulf of Mexico. The accuracy improvement of the presented method is also confirmed by comparing the results with the commonly used Bayesian linearized amplitude-versus-angle inversion.  相似文献