Turning climate change information into economic and health impacts     

Kirsten Halsnæs  Jesper Kühl  Jørgen E. Olesen 《Climatic change》2007,81(1):145-162

The PRUDENCE project has generated a set of spatially and temporally high-resolution climate data, which provides new opportunities for assessing the impacts of climate variability and change on economic and human systems in Europe. In this context, we initiated the development of new approaches for linking climate change information and economic studies. We have considered a number of case studies that illustrate how linkages can be established between geographically detailed climate data and economic information. The case studies included wheat production in agriculture, where regional climate data has been linked to farm enterprise data in an integrated model of physical conditions, production inputs and outputs, and farm management practices. Similarly, temperature data were used to assess consequences of extreme heat and excess mortality in urban areas. We give an introduction of an analytical approach for assessing economic impacts of climate change and discuss how economic concepts and valuation paradigms can be applied to climate change impact evaluation. A number of methodological difficulties encountered in economic assessments of climate change impacts are described and a number of issues related to social and private aspects of costs are highlighted. It is argued that, in particular, detailed climate information matters in relation to understanding how private agents react to observed climate data.  相似文献   

Changes in size distribution of fresh water nanoscale colloidal matter and associated elements on mixing with seawater   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Björn Stolpe  Martin Hassellöv 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2007,71(13):3292-3301

Changes in size distribution and elemental composition of 0.5-50 nm fresh water colloids during estuarine mixing have been studied by in-laboratory mixing of natural creek water and synthetic seawater, followed by size fractionation with Asymmetrical Flow Field-Flow Fractionation, and online elemental quantification by High-Resolution ICPMS. At least two types of colloids were present in the studied size region; 0.5-3 nm fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM), and >3 nm colloids that were rich in Fe and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM). Most trace elements were associated in different proportions to these two populations of colloids. Following mixing with synthetic seawater, the >3 nm Fe-rich colloids and CDOM were extensively removed from the studied size region by salt induced aggregation. The degree of removal with increasing salinity was greatest below 2.5‰ salinity, continued to a lesser degree between 2.5‰ and 15‰ salinity, above which only very small additional removal could be distinguished. At 25‰ salinity, the Fe concentration in the 0.5-50 size region had been reduced down to 15% of its original value in freshwater, while the amount of CDOM had been reduced to 55%. On the contrary, the concentration of the 0.5-3 nm FDOM was unchanged by the increased concentration of sea salt. Therefore, colloidally associated Al, P, Co, Cu, Zn, Ce, Lu and Pb were removed from the 0.5-50 nm size region according to their relative distributions between the FDOM and the Fe-rich colloids. Consequently, at 25‰ salinity, the 0.5-50 nm concentrations of Al, Mn, P and Pb, (mainly associated with the Fe-rich colloids) had been reduced down to 13-26 % of their values in freshwater, while the concentrations of Co and Cu (with higher preferences for FDOM) were less reduced, down to 46% and 57%, respectively. Changes in the elemental composition of the remaining colloidal matter were observed, the most pronounced were increased contents of P, Al and Pb in Fe-rich colloidal matter of medium size (∼3-15 nm) and increased Pb content in Fe-rich colloidal matter of larger size (∼5-50 nm).  相似文献   

A dinoflagellate cyst record of Holocene climate and hydrological changes along the southeastern Swedish Baltic coast     

Shi-Yong Yu  Björn E. Berglund 《Quaternary Research》2007,67(2):215-224

A high-resolution, well-dated dinoflagellate cyst record from a lagoon of the southeastern Swedish Baltic Sea reveals climate and hydrological changes during the Holocene. Marine dinoflagellate cysts occurred initially at about 8600 cal yr BP, indicating the onset of the Littorina transgression in the southeastern Swedish lowland associated with global sea level rise, and thus the opening of the Danish straits. Both the species diversity and the total accumulation rates of dinoflagellate cysts continued to increase by 7000 cal yr BP and then decreased progressively. This pattern reveals the first-order change in local sea level as a function of ice-volume-equivalent sea level rise versus isostatic land uplift. Superimposed upon this local sea level trend, well-defined fluctuations of the total accumulation rates of dinoflagellate cysts occurred on quasi-1000- and 500-yr frequency bands particularly between 7500 and 4000 cal yr BP, when the connection between the Baltic basin and the North Atlantic was broader. A close correlation of the total accumulation rates of dinoflagellate cysts with GISP2 ice core sea-salt ions suggests that fluctuations of Baltic surface conditions during the middle Holocene might have been regulated by quasi-periodic variations of the prevailing southwesterly winds, most likely through a system similar to the dipole oscillation of the modern North Atlantic atmosphere.  相似文献   

Cenozoic erosion and the preglacial uplift of the Svalbard–Barents Sea region     

Panagiotis Dimakis  Bjrn Inge Braathen  Jan Inge Faleide  Anders Elverhi  Steinar T. Gudlaugsson 《Tectonophysics》1998,300(1-4)

The creation of the huge fans observed in the western Barents Sea margin can only be explained by assuming extremely high glacial erosion rates in the Barents Sea area. Glacial processes capable of producing such high erosion rates have been proposed, but require the largest part of the preglacial Barents Sea to be subaerial. To investigate the validity of these proposals we have attempted to reconstruct the western preglacial Barents Sea. Our approach was to combine erosion maps based on prepublished data into a single mean valued erosion map covering the whole western Barents Sea and consequently use it together with a simple Airy isostatic model to obtain a first rough estimate of the preglacial topography and bathymetry of the western Barents Sea margin. The mean valued erosion map presented herein is in good volumetric agreement with the sediments deposited in the western Barents Sea margin areas, and as a direct consequence of the averaging procedures employed in its construction we can safely assume that it is the most reliable erosion map based on the available information. By comparing the preglacial sequences with the glacial sequences in the fans we have concluded that 1/2 to 2/3 of the total Cenozoic erosion was glacial in origin and therefore a rough reconstruction of the preglacial relief of the western Barents Sea could be obtained. The results show a subaerial preglacial Barents Sea. Thus, during interglacials and interstadials the area may have been partly glaciated and intensively eroded up to 1 mm/y, while during relatively brief periods of peak glaciation with grounded ice extending to the shelf edge, sediments have been evacuated and deposited at the margins at high rates. The interplay between erosion and uplift represents a typical chicken and egg problem; initial uplift is followed by intensive glacial erosion, compensated by isostatic uplift, which in turn leads to the maintenance of an elevated, and glaciated, terrain. The information we have on the initial tectonic uplift suggests that the most likely mechanism to cause an uplift of the dimensions and magnitude of the one observed in the Barents Sea is a thermal mechanism.  相似文献   

Detection of the Lower Boundary of Stellar Convective Envelopes from Seismic Data     

Mário J.P.F.G. Monteiro  Jørgen Christensen-Dalsgaard  Michael J. Thompson 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1998,261(1-4):41-42

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A simple model for the adjustment of velocity spectra in unstable conditions downstream of an abrupt change in roughness and heat flux   总被引：1，自引：3，他引：1  

Jørgen Højstrup 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1981,21(3):341-356

A simple model for the equilibrium spectra of velocity fluctuations in the unstable surface layer is developed. All three component spectra are written as a sum of two spectra For the horizontal spectra, the two parts scale with % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqaqpepeea0xe9qqVa0l% b9peea0lb9Lq-JfrVkFHe9peea0dXdarVe0Fb9pgea0xa9W8qr0-vr% 0-viWZqaceaabiGaciaacaqabeaadaqaaqaaaOqaaiaacIcacaWGUb% GaamOEamaaBaaaleaacaWGPbaabeaakiaac+cacaWG1bGaaiilaiaa% dQhadaWgaaWcbaGaamyAaaqabaGccaGGVaGaamitaiaacMcaaaa!4232!\[(nz_i /u,z_i /L)\]and % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqaqpepeea0xe9qqVa0l% b9peea0lb9Lq-JfrVkFHe9peea0dXdarVe0Fb9pgea0xa9W8qr0-vr% 0-viWZqaceaabiGaciaacaqabeaadaqaaqaaaOqaaiaad6gacaWG6b% Gaai4laiaadwhaaaa!3B5E!\[nz/u\], respectively; the vertical spectrum can be written entirely as a function of % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqaqpepeea0xe9qqVa0l% b9peea0lb9Lq-JfrVkFHe9peea0dXdarVe0Fb9pgea0xa9W8qr0-vr% 0-viWZqaceaabiGaciaacaqabeaadaqaaqaaaOqaaiaad6gacaWG6b% Gaai4laiaadwhaaaa!3B5E!\[nz/u\] and % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqaqpepeea0xe9qqVa0l% b9peea0lb9Lq-JfrVkFHe9peea0dXdarVe0Fb9pgea0xa9W8qr0-vr% 0-viWZqaceaabiGaciaacaqabeaadaqaaqaaaOqaaiaadQhacaGGVa% Gaamitaaaa!3A42!\[z/L\].The equilibrium spectra are utilized as part of a model describing the development of velocity spectra downwind of a change in surface roughness and heat flux.Results are shown for the streamwise component and compared with hotwire measurements from the RISØ 78 experiment. The model shows excellent agreement with the measurements.on leave of absence from RISØ National Laboratory Roskilde, Denmark.  相似文献   

Isoseismals of the strongest Friuli aftershocks of September 1976     

Vít Kárník  Dana Procházková  Zdeňka Schenková  Julius Drimmel  Dieter Mayer-Rosa  Dragutin Cvijanovic  Vladimir Kuk  Andelka Miloševič  Francesco Giorgetti  Reviewer J. Janský 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1978,22(4):411-414

Summary Isoseismal maps of the three strongest Friuli aftershocks of September 1976 were compiled using the contributions from European countries within the shaken area. The characteristic features of the macroseismic fields are discussed.  相似文献   

Palaeomagnetic evidence for large-scale dextral movement along the Trollfjord-Komagelv Fault,Finnmark, north Norway     

J. Kjøde  K.M. Storetvedt  D. Roberts  A. Gidskehaug 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》1978,16(2):132-144

Palaeomagnetic data from Late Precambrian dykes from the northern part of Varanger peninsula, north Norway, suggest a two-axis magnetization structure. The dominant component is considered to be syn- to late-tectonic and probably acquired at around 640 m.y. B.P. Superposed on this magnetization is a minor component which is compatible with the relative Lower-Middle Palaeozoic field; i.e. it was most likely imposed during the climax of the Caledonian orogenic movements in north Norway. The estimated relative Late Precambrian palaeopole cannot easily be reconciled with the European Late Precambrian polar path. This disagreement can be accounted for by assuming a post-magnetization dextral megashear, of the order of 500–1000 km, along the Trollfjord-Komagelv fracture zone. This type of displacement is in line with geological evidence and the palaeomagnetic reconstruction supports the long-held view of there having been continuity between the depositional environments of the Varanger Peninsula Barents Sea Group, the Eleonore Bay Group of east Greenland and the Hecla Hoek Formation of east Spitsbergen. The character and age of the horizontal displacement, post-640 to pre-500 m.y. B.P., is seen in conjunction with the opening up of the lapetus Ocean and reactivation of ancient deep-seated fractures during both the spreading and the contraction phases of ocean development.  相似文献   

Hydrography of the Santee River during moderate discharge conditions     

Björn Kjerfve  J. E. Greer 《Estuaries and Coasts》1978,1(2):111-119

To harness hydroelectric power, most of the flow of the Santee River, SC was diverted in 1942 into Charleston Harbor, where shoaling promptly became a major problem. For this reason, most of the diverted flow is scheduled to be rediverted to the Santee within the next decade, increasing the mean discharge of the Santee from 74 to 428 m³s^?1. To assess the present hydrogrpahy of the Santee estuary under conditions of moderate discharge, we determined 226 vertical profiles of velocity, salinity, and temperature distributed over 17 stations in February, 1975. We found that 73 and 27% of the discharge reached the ocean via the North and South distributaries, respectively. The 1 ppt isohaline was found no further than 8 km upstream from the mouth, indicating the limited extent of the estuarine zone. The Santee is a partially mixed estuary classified as type 2b. The circulation parameter is approximately 3 and the stratification parameter approximately 0.3. The bulk parameters indicate the importance of tidal, mixing and a weakly developed gravitational circulation. When rediversion is completed, the net salinity in the lower Santee River can be expected to decrease drastically, which in turn is likely to terminate the lucrative oyster and clam fishery.  相似文献   

Partitioning of iron and magnesium between crystals and partial melts in peridotite upper mantle     

Bjørn Mysen 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1975,52(2):69-76

The iron-magnesium distribution coefficient, $$K'_D = (X_{\Sigma {\text{FeO}}} /X_{{\text{MgO}}} )^{{\text{olivine}}} (X_{{\text{MgO}}} /X_{\Sigma {\text{FeO}}} )^{{\text{liquid}}} ,$$ has frequently been used as a means of testing whether experimental and natural silicate liquids could have been in equilibrium with olivine of mantle composition. It is shown here that this K′ _D decreases with increasing oxygen fugacity (xxx) for a hydrous partial melt in equilibrium with a natural spinel peridotite assemblage under pressure and temperature conditions corresponding to those of the upper mantle (from 0.52 at the xxx of the iron-wüstite buffer to 0.04 at the xxx of the magnetite-hematite buffer). K′ _D also increases with increasing pressure, with decreasing temperature, and probably with increasing Mg/(Mg+∑ Fe) of the parental peridotite, suggesting that $$K_D = (X_{{\text{FeO}}} /X_{{\text{MgO}}} )^{{\text{olivine}}} (X_{{\text{MgO}}} /X_{{\text{FeO}}} )^{{\text{liquid}}}$$ also increases with increasing pressure and decreasing temperature. Thus, unless these four variables (P, T, xxx, silicate composition) are known for a natural magma, K′ _D and probably K _D are variables, and the Mg/(Mg+∑ Fe) of such a magma cannot be correlated to that of the parent. The K _D determined at 1 atm pressure by Roeder and Emslie has frequently been used to test whether the Mg/(Mg+∑ Fe) ratios of experimentally formed liquids at high pressure in equilibrium with olivine of known Fo content represent the equilibrium Mg/(Mg+Fe²⁺) of this liquid, assuming that ∑Fe=Fe²⁺ and that K′ _D does not vary with P, T, and composition of the system. Published data demonstrate that the oxygen fugacities of the experimental designs employed by different laboratories vary between those of the magnetite-hematite and magnetite-wüstite buffers (6 orders of magnitude), resulting in K′ _D between 0.04 and 0.31 at 1050° C and 15 kbar, for example. Thus, published arguments as to whether the quenched liquids represent equilibrium compositions based on iron-magnesium partitioning are inadequate. The effects of P, T, xxx, and the composition of the starting material must also be considered.  相似文献