Climate change and energy security: an analysis of policy research     

Marcus DuBois King  Jay Gulledge 《Climatic change》2014,123(1):57-68

The literature on climate change’s impacts on energy security is scattered across disparate fields of research and schools of thought. Much of this literature has been produced outside of the academy by scholars and practitioners working in “think tanks,” government agencies, and international/multilateral institutions. Here we reviewed a selected set of 58 articles and reports primarily from such sources and performed textual analysis of the arguments. Our review of this literature identifies three potential mechanisms for linking climate change and energy security: Climate change may 1) create second-order effects that may exacerbate social instability and disrupt energy systems; 2) directly impact energy supply and/or systems or 3) influence energy security through the effects of climate-related policies. We identify emerging risks to energy security driven by climate mitigation technology choices but find less evidence of climate change’s direct physical impacts. We used both empirical and qualitative selection factors for choosing the grey literature sample. The sources we selected were published in the last 5 years, available through electronic media and were written in language accessible to general policy or academic readers. The organizations that published the literature had performed previous research in the general fields of energy and/or climate change with some analytical content and identified themselves as non-partisan. This literature is particularly valuable to scholars because identifies understudied relationships that can be rigorously assessed through academic tools and methodologies and informs a translational research agenda that will allow scholars to engage with practitioners to address challenges that lie at the nexus of climate change and energy security.  相似文献   

Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological theory for modelling community resilience to natural disasters   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Helen J. Boon  Alison Cottrell  David King  Robert B. Stevenson  Joanne Millar 《Natural Hazards》2012,60(2):381-408

This paper advocates the use of Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological theory as a framework to analyse resilience at diverse scales. Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological theory can be employed to (a) benchmark social resilience, (b) target the priority interventions required and (c) measure progress arising from these interventions to enhance resilience to natural disasters. First, the paper explores resilience to natural disasters in the context of climatic change as building resilience is seen as a way to mitigate impacts of natural disasters. Second, concepts of resilience are systematically examined and documented, outlining resilience as a trait and resilience as a process. Third, issues arising in relation to the measurement of resilience are discussed. Fourth, Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological systems theory is described and proffered to model and assess resilience at different scales. Fifth, studies are described which have supported the use of the bioecological systems theory for the study of resilience. Sixth, an example of the use of Bronfenbrenner’s theory is offered and the paper concludes with suggestions for future research using Bronfenbrenner’s theory.  相似文献   

Robust optimisation of CO2 sequestration strategies under geological uncertainty using adaptive sparse grid surrogates     

Kurt R. Petvipusit  Ahmed H. Elsheikh  Tara C. Laforce  Peter R. King  Martin J. Blunt 《Computational Geosciences》2014,18(5):763-778

Geologic CO₂ sequestration in deep saline aquifers is a promising technique to mitigate the effect of greenhouse gas emissions. Designing optimal CO₂ injection strategy becomes a challenging problem in the presence of geological uncertainty. We propose a surrogate assisted optimisation technique for robust optimisation of CO₂ injection strategies. The surrogate is built using Adaptive Sparse Grid Interpolation (ASGI) to accelerate the optimisation of CO₂ injection rates. The surrogate model is adaptively built with different numbers of evaluation points (simulation runs) in different dimensions to allow automatic refinement in the dimension where added resolution is needed. This technique is referred to as dimensional adaptivity and provides a good balance between the accuracy of the surrogate model and the number of simulation runs to save computational costs. For a robust design, we propose a utility function which comprises the statistical moment of the objective function. Numerical testing of the proposed approach applied to benchmark functions and reservoir models shows the efficiency of the method for the robust optimisation of CO₂ injection strategies under geological uncertainty.  相似文献   

Carbon capture and sequestration versus carbon capture utilisation and storage for enhanced oil recovery   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Bob Harrison  Gioia Falcone 《Acta Geotechnica》2014,9(1):29-38

There are 74 integrated carbon capture projects worldwide currently listed by the Global CCS Institute, including the few already running and those still at the identification, evaluation, definition or execution stage for operation by 2018. Significant funding programmes have recently been launched by the European Commission (NER300 in November 2011) and by the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (CCS Commercialisation Programme in April 2012) for commercial demonstration projects leading to innovation across the CCS/CCUS technology chain to reduce energy system costs. In their calls for proposals, these programmes were open to both CCS and CCUS projects. However, there are significant technical and commercial differences between projects for enhanced oil recovery and those for permanent storage of carbon dioxide in saline aquifers or in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs, the same way that there exist more complexities and limitations for offshore implementation. Such differences are accompanied by different levels of field verification of the various storage and utilisation concepts, with permanent sequestration having only a more recent history and smaller-scale implementation. In this scenario, the need for appropriate due diligence workflows and screening criteria to assess the technical viability and the deliverability of different CCS/CCUS projects remains crucial, vis-à-vis the high component costs, efficiency penalties, reservoir uncertainties and the many challenges related to full chain integration (from carbon dioxide capture to underground sequestration). Based on information in the public domain, this paper reviews the current status of offshore CCS/CCUS implementation worldwide and discusses screening criteria for use by governments, operators and investors alike.  相似文献   

Empirical modelling of site-specific errors in continuous GPS data   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Michael Moore  Christopher Watson  Matt King  Simon McClusky  Paul Tregoning 《Journal of Geodesy》2014,88(9):887-900

Continuous global positioning system (GPS) stations propagate biases and spurious signals into the derived parameter time series when the measurements are subject to site-specific effects, such as multipath. This is a particular problem in the investigation of geophysical and atmospheric phenomena where signals may be small in magnitude. A methodology to remove these erroneous signals from long-term time series will significantly increase the usefulness of the derived time series. This work provides the theoretical basis for use of an empirical site model (ESM) derived from post-fit phase residuals to mitigate unmodelled site-specific errors. Additionally, we also investigate the effectiveness of applying an ESM to a regional GPS network and a short baseline solution. Under most observing scenarios, we show that the ESM approach is predicted to improve the precision and accuracy of the site coordinates. However, it is important to note that we found some scenarios where the ESM can introduce a bias. For instance, when the antenna is mounted close to the ground. In this scenario, for a short baseline, we observed the introduction of a 4-mm bias in height. Use of an ESM for the same short baseline with an uncalibrated radome substantially improves the results by removing a large bias of over 10 mm in height. Similarly, application of an ESM derived from historic data yields similar improvements. This demonstrates that the ESM can be a powerful tool when applied to appropriate site-specific configurations and could potentially be implemented in routine GPS analysis for a broad range of applications.  相似文献   

Bivalve shellfish harvesting and consumption in New Zealand, 2011: data for exposure assessment     

N King  R Lake 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(1):62-72

We provide an overview of bivalve molluscan shellfish (BMS) availability to New Zealanders. Data on commercial production (aquaculture) and harvesting, non-commercial (recreational and customary) harvesting and international trading (imports, exports) of BMS were assembled. These data were transformed to estimate the total weight (greenweight and meatweight) of each BMS species, and all BMS species, available to New Zealand domestic consumers in 2011. An estimated 68,000 tonnes greenweight, or 13,000 tonnes meatweight, of BMS were available. Mussels (mostly commercially-produced Perna canaliculus) accounted for 96% of the total available BMS by meatweight. Non-commercially harvested BMS were 1% of the total available BMS. BMS availability was estimated as 8 g/person/day for the total New Zealand population and 407 g/person/day for shellfish consumers. These estimates were comparable to published national consumption data. The results can be used as inputs to exposure assessment. Food availability is a useful estimate where consumption data are limited.  相似文献   

Sporadic formation of slope streaks on Mars     

Norbert Schorghofer  Christina M. King 《Icarus》2011,216(1):159-168

Slope streaks are a form of gravity-driven mass-movements that frequently occur on Mars today. The cause of slope streak formation remains unclear; both, dry and wet processes have been suggested. Here, we observationally constrain the time of the year during which slope streaks form. Imagery from four Mars-orbiting cameras is mined to identify locations that have been imaged repeatedly, and the overlapping images are surveyed for streak activity. A search algorithm automatically finds the locations on the surface that have been imaged most often based on a graph representation. Dark slope streaks are found to form sporadically throughout the Mars year. At one study site in the Olympus Mons Aureole, observations constrain slope streak formation to at least five distinct time intervals within a single Mars year. New slope streaks form spatially isolated or in small groups within a few kilometers of one another. The observations suggest that slope streak triggering is unrelated to season and not caused by any large regional events. Most slope streaks are caused by sporadic events of small spatial extent.  相似文献   

鄂尔多斯盆地侏罗纪煤的煤岩特征及成因分析   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

黄文辉  敖卫华  翁成敏  肖秀玲  刘大锰  唐修义  陈萍  赵志根  万欢  FINKELMAN Bob 《现代地质》2010,24(6)

鄂尔多斯盆地侏罗系发育多层厚煤层,煤质优良,储量巨大,且构造简单,埋深较浅,具有很大的开采价值。该岩系独特的煤岩特征与其成煤沼泽环境有密切联系,即内陆湖泊发育有关的河流体系上部的一系列高位沼泽;泥炭埋藏后继续经历不同程度的氧化阶段,使得煤岩组分中惰性组分含量普遍偏高,而镜质组分普遍经受一定程度的丝炭化作用而成为半镜质体。研究表明盆地中侏罗系煤系中煤的宏观煤岩主要以半暗煤和暗淡煤为主,半亮煤和光亮煤占次要地位;在盆地边缘,特别是靠近盆地北部物源地区,半暗煤、暗淡煤含量比例较高,往南向盆地中心部位半亮煤和光亮煤逐渐增多,表明沉积环境和成煤沼泽环境对煤岩组分具有主要控制作用;含煤岩系中,特别是煤层下部砂岩越厚,颗粒越粗,显微煤岩组分中丝质体含量越高,而且其结构完整、清晰,半镜质体含量也越高,植物细胞结构越完整和规则。埋藏后顶底板岩性还会继续影响煤岩组分的演化过程。煤层顶底板砂体由于物性条件好,孔隙水仍可长时间处于氧化与循环流通状态,使得各煤岩组分能长时间处于氧化状态,有利于丝炭化作用进行;相反,在盆地中心,湖泊相发育,泥炭被埋藏之后迅速被泥岩覆盖,煤层很快处于还原缺氧环境,凝胶化作用得以充分进行,镜质组的含量就会增高。研究还发现,壳质组常常在煤层中的某一部位富集,虽然整个煤层中其平均含量不高,但是却对煤层的总体生烃能力会有很大贡献。以往的研究成果中,壳质组含量常常被低估,尤其是呈流动状态的沥青质体,因为它最容易流动到刚性比较强的丝质体内部或各种裂隙中而常常被忽略,在以后的研究中值得加以重视。  相似文献   

Designing science web sites     

Kica Worrilow  Todd King  Raymond Walker  Mark E. Rose  William Moore  Steven Joy 《Earth Science Informatics》2010,3(1-2):51-57

From a scientist’s viewpoint a web site is one tool used to conduct research. From an artist’s viewpoint web sites are a form of visual composition. From a developer’s point of view a web site is a type of application. While web sites are a relatively new medium with a particular set of constraints, they do adhere to the same basic design principles that apply to other art forms. These design principles are the basic assumptions that affect the arrangement of elements within a composition. A successful design uses the principles and elements to achieve a visual goal in the composition. A web site designed for scientists has unique properties which are not shared by many other types of web sites. These properties influence the overall visual design of the web sites. Recently at the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics at UCLA undertook a re-design of a number of its websites. In the effort, the use of visual design principles combined with the properties of a science web site were put to the test. In all, six different web sites were designed each with a difference science focus. We describe the process used to design the web sites which involve forming teams of designers, scientists and developers. We present example pages from each design and conclude with a discussion of what was learned during the process.  相似文献   

Strategies for High Precision Processing of GPS Measurements with Application to the Amery Ice Shelf,East Antarctica   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Matt King  Lau N. Nguyen  Richard Coleman  Peter Morgan 《GPS Solutions》2000,4(1):2-12

A number of statistic Global Positioning System (GPS) measurement campaigns have been made on a floating Antarctic ice shelf, the Amery Ice Shelf, as part of ongoing glaciological studies designed to investigate the ice shelf dynamics, grounding zone definition, and ice shelf strain. Such studies ar fundamental to improving out knowledge of the Antarctic ice-sheet mass balance and dynamical models of ice sheet/ocean interaction. This article describes two techniques used to process the statistic GPS data. One approach uses a segmented version of the classical static methodology, and the other approach adopts a new sequential processing technique. Both approaches yield similar results for the station coordinates and demonstrate the potential of GPS for extracting the tidal signal on the ice shelves and giving information on the dynamical motion of the ice sheet. To verify our results for the vertical component, we compare the ice shelf GPS tidal signal with a tidal model derived from tide gauge measurements at nearby Beaver Lake. Comparison of the GPS results with the tide model give good agreement in amplitude at the few cm level (GPS results always larger) but clearly shows evidence of phase propagation of the ocean tidal wave under the ice shelf. Improving the resolution of the tides over the ice shelves will be of tremendous benefit for future satellite missions, such as Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESAT), and the integrated use of GPS and satellite data will be fundamental for any on-going Antarctic ice sheet mass balance studies. ? 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.  相似文献