Climate Suitability: For Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jessica Hartman  Kristie Ebi  K. John McConnell  Nathan Chan  John Weyant 《Global Change & Human Health》2002,3(1):42-54

As climate is one factor determining the potential range of malaria, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission is based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using sixteen projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas currently limited by precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Investigating Landslides Caused by Earthquakes – A Historical Review     

David K. Keefer 《Surveys in Geophysics》2002,23(6):473-510

Post-earthquake field investigations of landslide occurrence have provided a basis for understanding, evaluating, and mapping the hazard and risk associated withearthquake-induced landslides. This paper traces thehistorical development of knowledge derived from these investigations. Before 1783, historical accounts of the occurrence of landslides in earthquakes are typically so incomplete and vague that conclusions based on these accounts are of limited usefulness. For example, the number of landslides triggered by a given event is almost always greatly underestimated. The first formal, scientific post-earthquake investigation that included systematic documentation of the landslides was undertaken in the Calabria region of Italy after the 1783 earthquake swarm. From then until the mid-twentieth century, the best information on earthquake-induced landslides came from a succession ofpost-earthquake investigations largely carried out by formal commissions that undertook extensive ground-based field studies. Beginning in the mid-twentieth century, when the use of aerial photography became widespread, comprehensive inventories of landslide occurrence have been made for several earthquakes in the United States, Peru, Guatemala, Italy, El Salvador, Japan, and Taiwan. Techniques have also been developed for performing ``retrospective' analyses years or decades after an earthquake that attempt to reconstruct the distribution of landslides triggered by the event. The additional use of Geographic Information System (GIS) processing and digital mapping since about 1989 has greatly facilitated the level of analysis that can applied to mapped distributions of landslides. Beginning in 1984, syntheses of worldwide and national data on earthquake-induced landslides have defined their general characteristics and relations between their occurrence and various geologic and seismic parameters. However, the number of comprehensive post-earthquake studies of landslides is still relatively small, and one of the most pressing needs in this area of research is for the complete documentation of landslides triggered by many more earthquakes in a wider variety of environments.  相似文献   

Smoothing the Marmousi Model   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

K. Žáček 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2002,159(7-8):1507-1526

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Fish zonation in a Mediterranean stream: Effects of human disturbances   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

Anna Vila-Gispert  Emili García-Berthou  Ramon Moreno-Amich 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2002,64(2):163-170

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Morphology of the ovotestis of Serranus atricauda (Teleostei,Serranidae)     

María Mercedes García-Díaz  María José Lorente  José Antonio González  Víctor Manuel Tuset 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2002,64(1):87-96

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3-D Viscoelastic FEM Modeling of Crustal Deformation in Northeast Japan   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

H. Suito  M. Iizuka  K. Hirahara 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2002,159(10):2239-2259

-- As a first step toward establishing a standard earthquake cycle model in Japan, we simulate the crustal deformation during the past 100 years in northeast Japan, using a 3-D FEM based on the kinematic model. Then, we compare the computed results with the observed long-term leveling data and the recent GPS data. On the whole, although the effect of the subducting PAC is dominant, coseismic deformation of the interplate earthquakes can be clearly seen in the inland. Moreover, the postseismic deformation of the earthquakes due to the viscoelastic upper mantle seriously affects the inland movements, and continues for a few decades. Our modeling, including the effects of the interplate earthquakes and the three-dimensional viscoelastic inhomogeneity, reasonably explains the observed movement. Finally, we stress that the viscoelastic effect should be taken into consideration in the analyses, even if no earthquakes occur in the analyzed period.  相似文献   

Microseismicity Induced by Heavy Rainfall Around Flooded Vertical Ore Veins     

H. Ogasawara  K. Fujimori  N. Koizumi  N. Hirano  S. Fujiwara  S. Otsuka  S. Nakao  K. Nishigami  K. Taniguchi  Y. Iio  R. Nishida  K. Oike  Y. Tanaka 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2002,159(1-3):91-109

—?Microseismicity (M?M?M?M??6 were also monitored at a crustal movement monitoring station located several hundred meters from the veins. It was found that the opening of the vertical ore veins primary led to significant strain and tilt, but not to seismicity, because the delay and the longer duration of the seismicity were significant. Most seismic events involve thrusting mechanisms that are consistent with the present stress state of E-W-oriented tectonic compression, but are not consistent with the opening of the deepest ore vein. Interstingly, all the events within a few months of the heavy rainfall occurred near the faults that offset the deepest ore veins, wheareas all those events located away from the deepest ore veins occurred many months after the heavy rainfall. Consequently, the delayed diffusion of water appears to have played a dominant role in reducing rock strength, which led to seismicity in the Ikuno mine.  相似文献   

Establishment of a Non-Permanent GPS Network to Monitor the Recent NE-SW Deformation in the Granada Basin (Betic Cordillera,Southern Spain)     

Gil  A. J.  Rodríguez-Caderot  G.  Lacy  M. C.  Ruiz  A. M.  Sanz de Galdeano  C.  Alfaro  P. 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2002,46(3):395-410

The Granada Basin (Central Betic Cordillera), one of the most seismically active areas of the Iberian Peninsula, is currently subjected to NW-SE compression and NE-SW extension. The present day extension is accommodated by normal faults with various orientations but particularly with a NW-SE strike. At the surface, these active NW-SE normal faults are mainly concentrated on the NE part of the Basin. In this part we have selected a 15-km long segment where several active normal faults crop out. Using the marine Tortonian rocks as a reference, we have calculated a minimum extensional rate of 0.15-0.30 mm/year. The observed block rotation, the listric geometry of faults at depth and the distribution of seismicity over the whole Basin, indicate that this rate is a minimum value. In the framework of an interdisciplinary research project a non-permanent GPS-network has been established in the central sector of Betic Cordillera to monitor the crustal deformations. The first two observation campaigns were done in 1999 and 2000.  相似文献   

新时期我国区域经济地理学发展问题初探   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

刘曙光 《地域研究与开发》2002,21(2):1-4

我国新时期的区域经济地理学在取得全面发展的同时，在理论体系，研究方法和实践领域等方面还需要进一步的发展，文章根据学习和实践区域经济地理学的体会，初步提出基础理论和应用理论，思维方法和技术方法等方面发展见解，并指出区域创新系统和国际经济技术合作等学科应注意拓展的重要实践领域，最后提出我国区域经济地理学科发展的建议。  相似文献   

华南地区凉果加工业与凉果资源的匹配关系分析——以广东省新兴县为例     

刘一明  胡新艳  牛宝俊 《地域研究与开发》2002,21(2):60-63

文章以广东省新兴县为例，从凉果资源分布与加工能力的匹配关系角度对华南地区凉果资源的分布，凉果加工业的分布与布局，凉果市场分布与竞争力，凉果加工业与资源的匹配关系等进行了分析，并针对华南地区凉果加工业面临的主要问题提供了一些建议。  相似文献