Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Allyson Williams  Neil White  Shahbaz Mushtaq  Geoff Cockfield  Brendan Power  Louis Kouadio 《Climatic change》2015,129(1-2):183-196

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Evaluating techniques for sampling stream crayfish (Paranephrops planifrons)     

Charles F. Rabeni  Kevin J. Collier  Stephanie M. Parkyn  Brendan J. Hicks 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(5):693-700

We evaluated several capture and analysis techniques for estimating abundance and size structure of freshwater crayfish (Paranephrops planifrons) (koura) from a forested North Island, New Zealand stream to provide a methodological basis for future population studies. Direct observation at night and collecting with baited traps were not considered useful. A quadrat sampler was highly biased toward collecting small individuals. Handnetting at night and estimating abundances using the depletion method were not as efficient as handnetting on different dates and analysing by a mark‐recapture technique. Electrofishing was effective in collecting koura from different habitats and resulted in the highest abundance estimates, and mark‐recapture estimates appeared to be more precise than depletion estimates, especially if multiple recaptures were made. Handnetting captured more large crayfish relative to electrofishing or the quadrat sampler.  相似文献   

Geochemistry and Sm–Nd isotopic systematics of Ediacaran–Ordovician,sedimentary and bimodal igneous rocks in the western Acatlán Complex,southern Mexico: Evidence for rifting on the southern margin of the Rheic Ocean     

Carlos Ortega-Obregon  J. Brendan Murphy  J. Duncan Keppie 《Lithos》2010,114(1-2):155-167

Ordovician igneous rocks in the western Acatlán Complex (Olinalá area) of southern Mexico include a bimodal igneous suite that intrudes quartzites and gneisses of the Zacango Unit, and all these rocks were polydeformed and metamorphosed in the amphibolite facies during the Devono-Carboniferous. The Ordovician igneous rocks consist of the penecontemporaneous amphibolites, megacrystic granitoids and leucogranite, the latter dated at ca. 464 Ma. Geochemical and Sm–Nd data indicate that the amphibolites have a differentiated tholeiitic signature, and that its mafic protoliths formed in an extensional setting transitional between within-plate and ocean floor. The amphibolites are variably contaminated by a Mesoproterozoic crustal source, inferred to be the Oaxacan basement exposed in the adjacent terrane. The most primitive samples have εNdt (t = 465 Ma) values significantly below that of the contemporary depleted mantle and were probably derived from the sub-continental lithospheric mantle. The megacrystic granites were most probably derived by partial melting of an arc crustal source (similar to the Oaxacan Complex) and triggered by the ascent of mafic magma from the lithospheric mantle. Sm–Nd isotopic signatures suggest that metasedimentary rocks from Zacango Unit were derived from adjacent Oaxacan Complex. Trace elements relationships (e.g. La/Th vs. Hf) and REE patterns suggest provenance in felsic-intermediate igneous rocks with a calc-alkaline signature. The Ordovician bimodal magmatism is inferred to have resulted from rifting on the southern flank of the Rheic Ocean and is an expression of a major rifting event that occurred along much of the northern Gondwanan margin in the Ordovician.  相似文献   

A late Holocene paleoenvironmental reconstruction from Agua Caliente,southern Belize,linked to regional climate variability and cultural change at the Maya polity of Uxbenká     

Megan K. Walsh  Keith M. Prufer  Brendan J. Culleton  Douglas J. Kennett 《Quaternary Research》2014

We report high-resolution macroscopic charcoal, pollen and sedimentological data for Agua Caliente, a freshwater lagoon located in southern Belize, and infer a late Holocene record of human land-use/climate interactions for the nearby prehistoric Maya center of Uxbenká. Land-use activities spanning the initial clearance of forests for agriculture through the drought-linked Maya collapse and continuing into the historic recolonization of the region are all reflected in the record. Human land alteration in association with swidden agriculture is evident early in the record during the Middle Preclassic starting ca. 2600 cal yr BP. Fire slowly tapered off during the Late and Terminal Classic, consistent with the gradual political demise and depopulation of the Uxbenká polity sometime between ca. 1150 and 950 cal yr BP, during a period of multiple droughts evident in a nearby speleothem record. Fire activity was at its lowest during the Maya Postclassic ca. 950–430 cal yr BP, but rose consistent with increasing recolonization of the region between ca. 430 cal yr BP and present. These data suggest that this environmental record provides both a proxy for 2800 years of cultural change, including colonization, growth, decline, and reorganization of regional populations, and an independent confirmation of recent paleoclimate reconstructions from the same region.  相似文献   

Using a H∞ filter assimilation procedure to estimate root zone soil water content     

Haishen Lü  Xiaoli Li  Zhongbo Yu  Robert Horton  Yonghua Zhu  Zhenchun Hao  Long Xiang 《水文研究》2010,24(25):3648-3660

Root zone soil water content impacts plant water availability, land energy and water balances. Because of unknown hydrological model error, observation errors and the statistical characteristics of the errors, the widely used Kalman filter (KF) and its extensions are challenged to retrieve the root zone soil water content using the surface soil water content. If the soil hydraulic parameters are poorly estimated, the KF and its extensions fail to accurately estimate the root zone soil water. The H‐infinity filter (HF) represents a robust version of the KF. The HF is widely used in data assimilation and is superior to the KF, especially when the performance of the model is not well understood. The objective of this study is to study the impact of uncertain soil hydraulic parameters, initial soil moisture content and observation period on the ability of HF assimilation to predict in situ soil water content. In this article, we study seven cases. The results show that the soil hydraulic parameters hold a critical role in the course of assimilation. When the soil hydraulic parameters are poorly estimated, an accurate estimation of root soil water content cannot be retrieved by the HF assimilation approach. When the estimated soil hydraulic parameters are similar to actual values, the soil water content at various depths can be accurately retrieved by the HF assimilation. The HF assimilation is not very sensitive to the initial soil water content, and the impact of the initial soil water content on the assimilation scheme can be eliminated after about 5–7 days. The observation interval is important for soil water profile distribution retrieval with the HF, and the shorter the observation interval, the shorter the time required to achieve actual soil water content. However, the retrieval results are not very accurate at a depth of 100 cm. Also it is complex to determine the weighting coefficient and the error attenuation parameter in the HF assimilation. In this article, the trial‐and‐error method was used to determine the weighting coefficient and the error attenuation parameter. After the first establishment of limited range of the parameters, ‘the best parameter set’ was selected from the range of values. For the soil conditions investigated, the HF assimilation results are better than the open‐loop results. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Holocene sea-level changes along the North Carolina Coastline and their implications for glacial isostatic adjustment models     

B.P. Horton  W.R. Peltier  S.J. Culver  R. Drummond  S.E. Engelhart  A.C. Kemp  D. Mallinson  E.R. Thieler  S.R. Riggs  D.V. Ames  K.H. Thomson 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2009,28(17-18):1725-1736

We have synthesized new and existing relative sea-level (RSL) data to produce a quality-controlled, spatially comprehensive database from the North Carolina coastline. The RSL database consists of 54 sea-level index points that are quantitatively related to an appropriate tide level and assigned an error estimate, and a further 33 limiting dates that confine the maximum and minimum elevations of RSL. The temporal distribution of the index points is very uneven with only five index points older than 4000 cal a BP, but the form of the Holocene sea-level trend is constrained by both terrestrial and marine limiting dates. The data illustrate RSL rapidly rising during the early and mid Holocene from an observed elevation of ?35.7 ± 1.1 m MSL at 11062–10576 cal a BP to ?4.2 m ± 0.4 m MSL at 4240–3592 cal a BP.We restricted comparisons between observations and predictions from the ICE-5G(VM2) with rotational feedback Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model to the Late Holocene RSL (last 4000 cal a BP) because of the wealth of sea-level data during this time interval. The ICE-5G(VM2) model predicts significant spatial variations in RSL across North Carolina, thus we subdivided the observations into two regions. The model forecasts an increase in the rate of sea-level rise in Region 1 (Albemarle, Currituck, Roanoke, Croatan, and northern Pamlico sounds) compared to Region 2 (southern Pamlico, Core and Bogue sounds, and farther south to Wilmington). The observations show Late Holocene sea-level rising at 1.14 ± 0.03 mm year^?1 and 0.82 ± 0.02 mm year^?1 in Regions 1 and 2, respectively. The ICE-5G(VM2) predictions capture the general temporal trend of the observations, although there is an apparent misfit for index points older than 2000 cal a BP. It is presently unknown whether these misfits are caused by possible tectonic uplift associated with the mid-Carolina Platform High or a flaw in the GIA model. A comparison of local tide gauge data with the Late Holocene RSL trends from Regions 1 and 2 support the spatial variation in RSL across North Carolina, and imply an additional increase of mean sea level of greater than 2 mm year^?1 during the latter half of the 20th century; this is in general agreement with historical tide gauge and satellite altimetry data.  相似文献   

Multi-factor impact analysis of agricultural production in Bangladesh with climate change   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alex C. Ruane  David C. Major  Winston H. Yu  Mozaharul Alam  Sk. Ghulam Hussain  Abu Saleh Khan  Ahmadul Hassan  Bhuiya Md. Tamim Al Hossain  Richard Goldberg  Radley M. Horton  Cynthia Rosenzweig 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(1):338-350

Diverse vulnerabilities of Bangladesh's agricultural sector in 16 sub-regions are assessed using experiments designed to investigate climate impact factors in isolation and in combination. Climate information from a suite of global climate models (GCMs) is used to drive models assessing the agricultural impact of changes in temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide concentrations, river floods, and sea level rise for the 2040–2069 period in comparison to a historical baseline. Using the multi-factor impacts analysis framework developed in Yu et al. (2010), this study provides new sub-regional vulnerability analyses and quantifies key uncertainties in climate and production. Rice (aman, boro, and aus seasons) and wheat production are simulated in each sub-region using the biophysical Crop Environment REsource Synthesis (CERES) models. These simulations are then combined with the MIKE BASIN hydrologic model for river floods in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basins, and the MIKE21 Two-Dimensional Estuary Model to determine coastal inundation under conditions of higher mean sea level. The impacts of each factor depend on GCM configurations, emissions pathways, sub-regions, and particular seasons and crops. Temperature increases generally reduce production across all scenarios. Precipitation changes can have either a positive or a negative impact, with a high degree of uncertainty across GCMs. Carbon dioxide impacts on crop production are positive and depend on the emissions pathway. Increasing river flood areas reduce production in affected sub-regions. Precipitation uncertainties from different GCMs and emissions scenarios are reduced when integrated across the large GBM Basins’ hydrology. Agriculture in Southern Bangladesh is severely affected by sea level rise even when cyclonic surges are not fully considered, with impacts increasing under the higher emissions scenario.  相似文献   

Tree-ring reconstructed summer temperature anomalies for temperate East Asia since 800 C.E.     

Edward R. Cook  Paul J. Krusic  Kevin J. Anchukaitis  Brendan M. Buckley  Takeshi Nakatsuka  Masaki Sano 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):2957-2972

We develop a summer temperature reconstruction for temperate East Asia based on a network of annual tree-ring chronologies covering the period 800–1989 C.E. The East Asia reconstruction is the regional average of 585 individual grid point summer temperature reconstructions produced using an ensemble version of point-by-point regression. Statistical calibration and validation tests indicate that the regional average possesses sufficient overall skill to allow it to be used to study the causes of temperature variability and change over the region. The reconstruction suggests a moderately warm early medieval epoch (ca. 850–1050 C.E.), followed by generally cooler ‘Little Ice Age’ conditions (ca. 1350–1880 C.E.) and 20th century warming up to the present time. Since 1990, average temperature has exceeded past warm epochs of comparable duration, but it is not statistically unprecedented. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a volcanic forcing signal in the East Asia summer temperature reconstruction, resulting in pulses of cooler summer conditions that may persist for several years. Substantial uncertainties remain, however, particularly at lower frequencies, thus requiring caution and scientific prudence in the interpretation of this record.  相似文献   

Neoproterozoic—Early Paleozoic evolution of peri-Gondwanan terranes: implications for Laurentia-Gondwana connections     

J.?Brendan?MurphyEmail author  Sergei?A.?Pisarevsky  R.?Damian?Nance  J.?Duncan?Keppie 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2004,93(5):659-682

Neoproterozoic tectonics is dominated by the amalgamation of the supercontinent Rodinia at ca. 1.0 Ga, its breakup at ca. 0.75 Ga, and the collision between East and West Gondwana between 0.6 and 0.5 Ga. The principal stages in this evolution are recorded by terranes along the northern margin of West Gondwana (Amazonia and West Africa), which continuously faced open oceans during the Neoproterozoic. Two types of these so-called peri-Gondwanan terranes were distributed along this margin in the late Neoproterozoic: (1) Avalonian-type terranes (e.g. West Avalonia, East Avalonia, Carolina, Moravia-Silesia, Oaxaquia, Chortis block that originated from ca. 1.3 to 1.0 Ga juvenile crust within the Panthalassa-type ocean surrounding Rodinia and were accreted to the northern Gondwanan margin by 650 Ma, and (2) Cadomian-type terranes (North Armorica, Saxo-Thuringia, Moldanubia, and fringing terranes South Armorica, Ossa Morena and Tepla-Barrandian) formed along the West African margin by recycling ancient (2–3 Ga) West African crust. Subsequently detached from Gondwana, these terranes are now located within the Appalachian, Caledonide and Variscan orogens of North America and western Europe. Inferred relationships between these peri-Gondwanan terranes and the northern Gondwanan margin can be compared with paleomagnetically constrained movements interpreted for the Amazonian and West African cratons for the interval ca. 800–500 Ma. Since Amazonia is paleomagnetically unconstrained during this interval, in most tectonic syntheses its location is inferred from an interpreted connection with Laurentia. Hence, such an analysis has implications for Laurentia-Gondwana connections and for high latitude versus low latitude models for Laurentia in the interval ca. 615–570 Ma. In the high latitude model, Laurentia-Amazonia would have drifted rapidly south during this interval, and subduction along its leading edge would provide a geodynamic explanation for the voluminous magmatism evident in Neoproterozoic terranes, in a manner analogous to the Mesozoic-Cenozoic westward drift of North America and South America and subduction-related magmatism along the eastern margin of the Pacific ocean. On the other hand, if Laurentia-Amazonia remained at low latitudes during this interval, the most likely explanation for late Neoproterozoic peri-Gondwanan magmatism is the re-establishment of subduction zones following terrane accretion at ca. 650 Ma. Available paleomagnetic data for both West and East Avalonia show systematically lower paleolatitudes than predicted by these analyses, implying that more paleomagnetic data are required to document the movement histories of Laurentia, West Gondwana and the peri-Gondwanan terranes, and test the connections between them.  相似文献   

Muscovite dehydration melting: Reaction mechanisms,microstructures, and implications for anatexis     

Brendan Dyck  David J. Waters  Marc R. St-Onge  Mike P. Searle 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2020,38(1):29-52

Dehydration melting of muscovite in metasedimentary sequences is the initially dominant mechanism of granitic melt generation in orogenic hinterlands. In dry (vapour-absent) crust, muscovite reacts with quartz to produce K-feldspar, sillimanite, and monzogranitic melt. When water vapour is present in excess, sillimanite and melt are the primary products of muscovite breakdown, and any K-feldspar produced is due to melt crystallization. Here we document the reaction mechanisms that control nucleation and growth of K-feldspar, sillimanite, and silicate melt in the metamorphic core of the Himalaya, and outline the microstructural criteria used to distinguish peritectic K-feldspar from K-feldspar grains formed during melt crystallization. We have characterized four stages of microstructural evolution in selected psammitic and pelitic samples from the Langtang and Everest regions: (a) K-feldspar nucleates epitaxially on plagioclase while intergrowths of fibrolitic sillimanite and the remaining hydrous melt components replace muscovite. (b) In quartzofeldspathic domains, K-feldspar replaces plagioclase by K⁺–Na⁺ cation exchange, while melt and intergrowths of sillimanite+quartz form in the aluminous domains. (c) At 7–8 vol.% melt generation, the system evolves from a closed to open system and all phases coarsen by up to two orders of magnitude, resulting in large K-feldspar porphyroblasts. (d) Preferential crystallization of residual melt on K-feldspar porphyroblasts and coarsened quartz forms an augen gneiss texture with a monzogranitic-tonalitic matrix that contains intergrowths of sillimanite+tourmaline+muscovite+apatite. Initial poikiloblasts of peritectic K-feldspar trap fine-grained inclusions of quartz and biotite by replacement growth of matrix plagioclase. During subsequent coarsening, peritectic K-feldspar grains overgrow and trap fabric-aligned biotite, resulting in a core to rim coarsening of inclusion size. These microstructural criteria enable a mass balance of peritectic K-feldspar and sillimanite to constrain the amount of free H₂O present during muscovite dehydration. The resulting modal proportion of K-feldspar in the Himalayan metamorphic core requires vapour-absent conditions during muscovite dehydration melting and leucogranite formation, indicating that the generation of large volumes of granitic melts in orogenic belts is not necessarily contingent on an external source of fluids.  相似文献