Multi-factor impact analysis of agricultural production in Bangladesh with climate change   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alex C. Ruane  David C. Major  Winston H. Yu  Mozaharul Alam  Sk. Ghulam Hussain  Abu Saleh Khan  Ahmadul Hassan  Bhuiya Md. Tamim Al Hossain  Richard Goldberg  Radley M. Horton  Cynthia Rosenzweig 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(1):338-350

Diverse vulnerabilities of Bangladesh's agricultural sector in 16 sub-regions are assessed using experiments designed to investigate climate impact factors in isolation and in combination. Climate information from a suite of global climate models (GCMs) is used to drive models assessing the agricultural impact of changes in temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide concentrations, river floods, and sea level rise for the 2040–2069 period in comparison to a historical baseline. Using the multi-factor impacts analysis framework developed in Yu et al. (2010), this study provides new sub-regional vulnerability analyses and quantifies key uncertainties in climate and production. Rice (aman, boro, and aus seasons) and wheat production are simulated in each sub-region using the biophysical Crop Environment REsource Synthesis (CERES) models. These simulations are then combined with the MIKE BASIN hydrologic model for river floods in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basins, and the MIKE21 Two-Dimensional Estuary Model to determine coastal inundation under conditions of higher mean sea level. The impacts of each factor depend on GCM configurations, emissions pathways, sub-regions, and particular seasons and crops. Temperature increases generally reduce production across all scenarios. Precipitation changes can have either a positive or a negative impact, with a high degree of uncertainty across GCMs. Carbon dioxide impacts on crop production are positive and depend on the emissions pathway. Increasing river flood areas reduce production in affected sub-regions. Precipitation uncertainties from different GCMs and emissions scenarios are reduced when integrated across the large GBM Basins’ hydrology. Agriculture in Southern Bangladesh is severely affected by sea level rise even when cyclonic surges are not fully considered, with impacts increasing under the higher emissions scenario.  相似文献   

Tree-ring reconstructed summer temperature anomalies for temperate East Asia since 800 C.E.     

Edward R. Cook  Paul J. Krusic  Kevin J. Anchukaitis  Brendan M. Buckley  Takeshi Nakatsuka  Masaki Sano 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):2957-2972

We develop a summer temperature reconstruction for temperate East Asia based on a network of annual tree-ring chronologies covering the period 800–1989 C.E. The East Asia reconstruction is the regional average of 585 individual grid point summer temperature reconstructions produced using an ensemble version of point-by-point regression. Statistical calibration and validation tests indicate that the regional average possesses sufficient overall skill to allow it to be used to study the causes of temperature variability and change over the region. The reconstruction suggests a moderately warm early medieval epoch (ca. 850–1050 C.E.), followed by generally cooler ‘Little Ice Age’ conditions (ca. 1350–1880 C.E.) and 20th century warming up to the present time. Since 1990, average temperature has exceeded past warm epochs of comparable duration, but it is not statistically unprecedented. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a volcanic forcing signal in the East Asia summer temperature reconstruction, resulting in pulses of cooler summer conditions that may persist for several years. Substantial uncertainties remain, however, particularly at lower frequencies, thus requiring caution and scientific prudence in the interpretation of this record.  相似文献   

Neoproterozoic—Early Paleozoic evolution of peri-Gondwanan terranes: implications for Laurentia-Gondwana connections     

J.?Brendan?MurphyEmail author  Sergei?A.?Pisarevsky  R.?Damian?Nance  J.?Duncan?Keppie 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2004,93(5):659-682

Neoproterozoic tectonics is dominated by the amalgamation of the supercontinent Rodinia at ca. 1.0 Ga, its breakup at ca. 0.75 Ga, and the collision between East and West Gondwana between 0.6 and 0.5 Ga. The principal stages in this evolution are recorded by terranes along the northern margin of West Gondwana (Amazonia and West Africa), which continuously faced open oceans during the Neoproterozoic. Two types of these so-called peri-Gondwanan terranes were distributed along this margin in the late Neoproterozoic: (1) Avalonian-type terranes (e.g. West Avalonia, East Avalonia, Carolina, Moravia-Silesia, Oaxaquia, Chortis block that originated from ca. 1.3 to 1.0 Ga juvenile crust within the Panthalassa-type ocean surrounding Rodinia and were accreted to the northern Gondwanan margin by 650 Ma, and (2) Cadomian-type terranes (North Armorica, Saxo-Thuringia, Moldanubia, and fringing terranes South Armorica, Ossa Morena and Tepla-Barrandian) formed along the West African margin by recycling ancient (2–3 Ga) West African crust. Subsequently detached from Gondwana, these terranes are now located within the Appalachian, Caledonide and Variscan orogens of North America and western Europe. Inferred relationships between these peri-Gondwanan terranes and the northern Gondwanan margin can be compared with paleomagnetically constrained movements interpreted for the Amazonian and West African cratons for the interval ca. 800–500 Ma. Since Amazonia is paleomagnetically unconstrained during this interval, in most tectonic syntheses its location is inferred from an interpreted connection with Laurentia. Hence, such an analysis has implications for Laurentia-Gondwana connections and for high latitude versus low latitude models for Laurentia in the interval ca. 615–570 Ma. In the high latitude model, Laurentia-Amazonia would have drifted rapidly south during this interval, and subduction along its leading edge would provide a geodynamic explanation for the voluminous magmatism evident in Neoproterozoic terranes, in a manner analogous to the Mesozoic-Cenozoic westward drift of North America and South America and subduction-related magmatism along the eastern margin of the Pacific ocean. On the other hand, if Laurentia-Amazonia remained at low latitudes during this interval, the most likely explanation for late Neoproterozoic peri-Gondwanan magmatism is the re-establishment of subduction zones following terrane accretion at ca. 650 Ma. Available paleomagnetic data for both West and East Avalonia show systematically lower paleolatitudes than predicted by these analyses, implying that more paleomagnetic data are required to document the movement histories of Laurentia, West Gondwana and the peri-Gondwanan terranes, and test the connections between them.  相似文献   

Muscovite dehydration melting: Reaction mechanisms,microstructures, and implications for anatexis     

Brendan Dyck  David J. Waters  Marc R. St-Onge  Mike P. Searle 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2020,38(1):29-52

Dehydration melting of muscovite in metasedimentary sequences is the initially dominant mechanism of granitic melt generation in orogenic hinterlands. In dry (vapour-absent) crust, muscovite reacts with quartz to produce K-feldspar, sillimanite, and monzogranitic melt. When water vapour is present in excess, sillimanite and melt are the primary products of muscovite breakdown, and any K-feldspar produced is due to melt crystallization. Here we document the reaction mechanisms that control nucleation and growth of K-feldspar, sillimanite, and silicate melt in the metamorphic core of the Himalaya, and outline the microstructural criteria used to distinguish peritectic K-feldspar from K-feldspar grains formed during melt crystallization. We have characterized four stages of microstructural evolution in selected psammitic and pelitic samples from the Langtang and Everest regions: (a) K-feldspar nucleates epitaxially on plagioclase while intergrowths of fibrolitic sillimanite and the remaining hydrous melt components replace muscovite. (b) In quartzofeldspathic domains, K-feldspar replaces plagioclase by K⁺–Na⁺ cation exchange, while melt and intergrowths of sillimanite+quartz form in the aluminous domains. (c) At 7–8 vol.% melt generation, the system evolves from a closed to open system and all phases coarsen by up to two orders of magnitude, resulting in large K-feldspar porphyroblasts. (d) Preferential crystallization of residual melt on K-feldspar porphyroblasts and coarsened quartz forms an augen gneiss texture with a monzogranitic-tonalitic matrix that contains intergrowths of sillimanite+tourmaline+muscovite+apatite. Initial poikiloblasts of peritectic K-feldspar trap fine-grained inclusions of quartz and biotite by replacement growth of matrix plagioclase. During subsequent coarsening, peritectic K-feldspar grains overgrow and trap fabric-aligned biotite, resulting in a core to rim coarsening of inclusion size. These microstructural criteria enable a mass balance of peritectic K-feldspar and sillimanite to constrain the amount of free H₂O present during muscovite dehydration. The resulting modal proportion of K-feldspar in the Himalayan metamorphic core requires vapour-absent conditions during muscovite dehydration melting and leucogranite formation, indicating that the generation of large volumes of granitic melts in orogenic belts is not necessarily contingent on an external source of fluids.  相似文献   

Spatial and Temporal Patterns Associated with Permitted Tree Removal in Austin,Texas, 2002–2011     

Brendan L. Lavy  Ronald R. Hagelman III 《The Professional geographer》2017,69(4):539-552

A wide-ranging set of physical, urban, demographic, socioeconomic, and policy characteristics determines the spatial distribution of urban forests. Information on the characteristics surrounding tree removals on both public and private properties has received less attention in the literature. The purpose of this research was to analyze the spatiotemporal trends and geographic patterns of tree removals in Austin, Texas, between 2002 and 2011 in an effort to understand how site-specific characteristics influence urban tree removal and affect the overall distribution of Austin's urban forest. We examined permitted tree removals using a geographic information system (GIS) as well as spatial and statistical analyses. Specifically, we evaluated the degree to which variables related to various physical, urban, and socioeconomic conditions predicted tree removals. The results indicate that permitted tree removals and their associated characteristics in Austin have varied over the ten-year study period. Permitted tree removals increased over the study period and took place in the urban core and along the urban periphery. Permitted tree removals were more likely to be undertaken by college graduates and owner-occupants and to occur in more densely populated areas, closer to major streets, and on properties with older structures. The results of this research provide urban forest professionals with information on the location and intensity of permitted tree removals and the significant characteristics driving urban tree loss.  相似文献   

Post-wildfire sediment cascades: A modeling framework linking debris flow generation and network-scale sediment routing     

Brendan P. Murphy  Jonathan A. Czuba  Patrick Belmont 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(11):2126-2140

Wildfires represent one of the largest disturbances in watersheds of the Intermountain West. Yet, we lack models capable of predicting post-wildfire impacts on downstream ecosystems and infrastructure. Here we present a novel modeling framework that links new and existing models to simulate the post-wildfire sediment cascade, including spatially explicit predictions of debris flows, storage of debris flow sediment within valleys, delivery of debris flow sediment to active channels, and the downstream routing of sediment through river networks. We apply the model to sediment dynamics in Clear Creek watershed following the 2010 Twitchell Canyon Fire in the Tushar Mountains of southern Utah. The debris flow generation model performed well, correctly predicting 19 out of 20 debris flows from the largest catchments, with only four false positives and two false negatives at observed rainfall intensities. In total, the model predicts the occurrence of 160 post-wildfire debris flows across the Clear Creek watershed, generating more than 650 000 m³ of sediment. Our new storage and delivery model predicts the vast majority of this sediment is stored within valleys, and only 13% is delivered to the river network. The sediment routing model identifies numerous sediment bottlenecks within the network, which alter transport dynamics and may be hotspots for aggradation and aquatic habitat alteration. The volume of sediment exported from the watershed after seven years of simulation totals 17% of that delivered, or 2% of the total generated debris flow sediment. In the case of the Twitchell Canyon Fire, this highlights that significant post-wildfire sediment volumes can be stored in valleys (87%) and within the stream network (11%). Finally, we discuss useful insights that can be gleaned from the model framework, as well as the limitations and need for more monitoring and theory development in order to better constrain essential inputs, process rates, and morphodynamics. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal variation in subtidal molluscan diversity amongst temperate estuarine habitats          下载免费PDF全文

Tom R. Davis  David Harasti  Brendan Kelaher  Stephen D. A. Smith 《Marine Ecology》2017,38(3)

Effective management of marine ecosystems is enhanced when detailed information on biodiversity is available. Key information to underpin management actions and conservation planning includes relationships between species assemblages and environmental gradients, and information on species distributions. We conducted a subtidal biodiversity assessment of surface‐dwelling subtidal molluscs in eight a priori defined habitat types using underwater visual censuses to quantitatively explore relationships between molluscan assemblages, and their correlation with benthic habitats and abiotic variables. In addition, variations in diversity were examined for two key habitat types (areas dominated by Dendronephthya australis and by filter feeders) over a period of 15 months to examine temporal change. We found that molluscs form distinct assemblages within subtidal habitats, but that assemblages within key habitats show inherent temporal variability. Regional (gamma) diversity of molluscs was found to result from a combination of: (i) within habitat alpha diversity, which increased with habitat complexity; (ii) between habitat beta diversity, with significant differences in molluscan assemblages amongst habitats with differing benthic growth, substrate type, and depth; and (iii) temporal beta diversity, with significant changes detected in molluscan assemblages over time. The results demonstrate how habitats and abiotic variables (principally depth and substrate type) combine to contribute to molluscan biodiversity in temperate estuaries, and illustrate the value of these factors as surrogates for surface‐dwelling subtidal molluscs in conservation planning.  相似文献   

Reflections on geographies of age: a response to Hopkins and Pain     

John Horton  Peter Kraftl 《Area》2008,40(2):284-288

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Integrated provenance analysis of a convergent retroarc foreland system: U–Pb ages,heavy minerals,Nd isotopes,and sandstone compositions of the Middle Magdalena Valley basin,northern Andes,Colombia     

Junsheng Nie  Brian K. Horton  Joel E. Saylor  Andrés Mora  Maria Mange  Carmala N. Garzione  Asish Basu  Christopher J. Moreno  Victor Caballero  Mauricio Parra 《Earth》2012,110(1-4):111-126

Sediment provenance analysis remains a powerful method for testing hypotheses on the temporal and spatial evolution of uplifted source regions, but issues such as recycling, nonunique sources, and pre- and post-depositional modifications may complicate interpretation of results from individual provenance techniques. Convergent retroarc systems commonly contain sediment sources that are sufficiently diverse (continental magmatic arc, fold–thrust belt, and stable craton) to enable explicit provenance assessments. In this paper, we combine detrital zircon U–Pb geochronology, heavy mineral identification, Nd isotopic analyses, conventional sandstone petrography, and paleocurrent measurements to reconstruct the clastic provenance history of a long-lived sedimentary basin now exposed in an intermontane zone of the northern Andean hinterland of Colombia. The Middle Magdalena Valley basin, situated between the Central Cordillera and Eastern Cordillera, contains a 5–10 km-thick succession of Upper Cretaceous to Quaternary fill. The integrated techniques show a pronounced change in provenance during the Paleocene transition from the lower to upper Lisama Formation. We interpret this as a shift from an eastern cratonic source to a western Andean source composed of magmatic-arc rocks uplifted during initial shortening of the Central Cordillera. The appearance of detrital chloritoid and a shift to more negative ε_Nd(t=0) values in middle Eocene strata of the middle La Paz Formation are attributed to shortening-related exhumation of a continental basement block (La Cira–Infantas paleohigh), now buried, along the axis of the Magdalena Valley. The diverse provenance proxies also show distinct changes during middle to late Eocene deposition of the Esmeraldas Formation that likely reflect initial rock uplift and exhumation of the fold–thrust belt defining the Eastern Cordillera. Upsection, detrital zircon U–Pb ages and heavy mineral assemblages for Oligocene and younger clastic deposits indicate that the Mesozoic sedimentary cover of the Eastern Cordillera was recycled during continued Cenozoic shortening. Our multidisciplinary provenance study refines the tectonic history of the Colombian Andes and demonstrates that uncertainties related to sediment recycling, nonunique sources, source heterogeneity, and climate in interpreting provenance data can be minimized via an integrated approach.  相似文献   

‘Got my shoes,got my Pokémon’: Everyday geographies of children’s popular culture     

John Horton 《Geoforum》2012,43(1):4-13

This paper considers a particular popular-cultural phenomenon: ‘Pokémon’. Specifically, it concerns a social–historical juncture – a so-called ‘Pokémania’ – wherein Pokémon toys, games, collectables and merchandising were ‘must-have’ items for many children in South-East Asia, Europe, North America, and Australasia. Drawing upon research with Pokémon fans aged 5–8 in the UK, the paper explores some ways in which global cultural phenomena become intimately, complexly and constitutively co-implicated with/in everyday geographies. In so doing, I argue that the quotidian social and spatial import of Pokémon – and other analogous phenomena – should sensitise accounts of children’s everyday spatial practices to the ever-presence of contemporary popular cultural forms, and sensitise accounts of global popular culture to the importance of multifarious, contingent spatial practices.  相似文献