Long-term prediction of intermediate depth earthquakes in the southern Aegean region based on a time-predictable model   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

B. C. Papazachos 《Natural Hazards》1993,7(3):211-218

Repeat times of strong intermediate depth (60 km h 180 km) earthquakes have been determined by the use of instrumental and historical data for six seismogenic sources in the Benioff zone of the southern Aegean area. For four of these sources, at least two interevent times (three mainshocks) are available for each source. By using the repeat times for these four sources, the following relation has been determined: logT _t = 0.20M _min + 0.19M _p +a, whereT _t is the repeat time (in years),M _min the surface wave magnitude of the smallest earthquake considered,M _p the magnitude of the preceding mainshock and a parameter which varies from source to source. A multilinear correlation coefficient equal to 0.91 was determined for this relation, which indicates that the time predictable model holds to a satisfactory degree for the strong mainshocks of intermediate focal depth in the southern Aegean.By assuming that the ratioT/T _t, whereT is the observed andT _t the calculated repeat time, follows a lognormal distribution, the conditional probabilities for the occurrence of strong (M _s 6.5) and very strong (M _s 7.5) earthquakes during the period 1991–2001 in these four seismogenic sources have been calculated. These probabilities are very high (P > 0.9) for the strong and high (P > 0.5) for the very strong intermediate depth earthquakes which occur in the three sources of the shallower (h < 100 km) part of the Benioff zone where coupling occurs between the front parts of the Mediterranean lithosphere (downgoing) and the Aegean lithosphere.  相似文献   

Sediment budget-based estimates of trace metal inputs to a Chesapeake estuary     

W. A. Marcus  C. C. Nielsen  J. C. Cornwell 《Environmental Geology》1993,22(1):1-9

This article evaluates whether a sediment budget for the South River, Maryland, can be coupled with metals data from sediment cores to identify and quantify sources of historic metal inputs to marsh and subtidal sediments along the estuary. Metal inputs to estuarine marsh sediments come from fluvial runoff and atmospheric deposition. Metal inputs to subtidal sediments come from atmospheric deposition, fluvial runoff, coastal erosion, and estuarine waters. The metals budget for the estuary indicates that metal inputs from coastal erosion have remained relatively constant since 1840. Historical variations in metal contents of marsh sediments have probably resulted primarily from increasing atmospheric deposition in this century, but prior to 1900 may reflect changing fluvial sources, atmospheric inputs, or factors not quantified by the budget. Residual Pb, Cu, and Zn in the marsh sediments not accounted for by fluvial inputs was low to moderate in 1840, decreased to near zero circa 1910, and by 1987 had increased to levels that were one to ten times greater than those of 1840. Sources of variability in subtidal cores could not be clearly discerned because of geochemical fluxes, turbulent mixing, and bioturbation within the cores. The sediment-metal budgeting approach appears to be a viable method for delineating metal sources in small, relatively simple estuarine systems like the South River and in systems where recent deposition (for example, prograding marshes) prevents use of deep core analysis to identify background levels of metal. In larger systems or systems with more variable sources of sediment and metal input, however, assumptions and measurement errors in the metal budgeting approach suggest that deep core analysis and normalization techniques are probably preferable for identifying anthropogenic impacts.Field and laboratory research conducted at the Department of Geography, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, 20742, USAField and laboratory research conducted at the Marine and Estuarine Environmental Science Program, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, 20742, USA  相似文献   

Late Quaternary palaeolimnology of a tropical marl lake: Wallywash Great Pond,Jamaica   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

F. A. Street-Perrott  P. E. Hales  R. A. Perrott  J. C. Fontes  V. R. Switsur  A. Pearson 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1993,9(1):3-22

Wallywash Great Pond (17° 57 N, 77° 48 W, 7 m a.s.l.) is the largest perennial lake in Jamaica. It occupies a fault trough within the karstic White Limestone. The Great Pond is a hardwater lake with a pH of 8.2–8.6 and an alkalinity of 3.6–3.9 meq 1^–1. Its chemistry is strongly influenced by the spring discharge from the limestone. The lake water is subject to degassing, evaporation and bicarbonate assimilation by submerged plants and algae, resulting in marl precipitation. A 9.23 m core (WGP2), taken from a water depth of 2.8 m, was analysed for magnetic susceptibility, loss-on-ignition, carbonate content, mole % MgCO₃ in calcite, and stable isotopes in the fine carbonate fraction. The chronology is based on ten¹⁴C and four U/Th dates. Four main sediment types alternate in the core: marl; organic, calcareous mud; organic mud or peat; and earthy, brown, calcareous mud. The marls represent periods of wet/warm climate during sea-level highstands and the organic deposits, shallower, swampy conditions. In contrast, the brown, calcareous muds were laid down when the lake was dry or ephemeral. The last interglacial (120 000- 106 000 yr BP) is represented by three distinct marl units. After a dry interval, stable, wet/warm conditions set in from 106 000 to 93 000 yr BP. A dry/cool climate prevailed between 93 000 and at least 9500 yr BP. Three subsequent cycles of alternating wet and dry conditions culminated in flooding of the basin by the Black River during the late Holocene. These recent events cannot be accurately dated by¹⁴C due to significant and temporally-variable inputs of dead carbon from the springs.  相似文献   

A stability study of asteroid families near the 3:1 and 5:2 resonance with Jupiter     

G. Hahn  C. -I. Lagerkvist  B. A. Lindblad 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1993,56(1-2):131-141

By using theD-criterion Lindblad (1992) has identified 14 asteroid families from a sample of 4100 numbered asteroids with proper elements from Milani and Kneevi (1990). Taxonomic types and other physical properties for a significant number of objects in five of the families show strong homogeneity within each family, further strengthening their internal relationship.To test the hypothesis of a common origin in, e.g., a catastrophic collision event, we have set out to integrate the orbits of the members of the Maria, Dora and Oppavia-Gefion families over some 10⁶ years. The mean distance for the Maria family is close to the 3:1 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter, while the other two families lie close to the 5:2 resonance.We used a simplified solar system model which included the perturbations by Jupiter and Saturn only and implemented Everhart's variable stepsize integrator RA15. All close encounters between the family members (within 0.1 AU) were recorded as well. Preliminary results from integrations over 4×10⁵ years are presented here.The statistics of close encounters show pronounced peaks for several members within each family, while for others no significant levels above the background of random encounters or even very low frequencies were found. This indicates a subclustering within the families. Quite a lot of very close (<0.005 AU) mutual encounters are found, which suggest that, at least for the larger members in a family, the mutual gravitational interactions could be of some importance for the real orbital evolutions.The encounter statistics between the Dora and Oppavia family members suggest a possible interrelationship between this two groups.  相似文献   

Generalized Lyapunov exponents indicators in Hamiltonian dynamics: An application to a double star system     

E. Lohinger  C. Froeschlé  R. Dvorak 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1993,56(1-2):315-322

The Lyapunov characteristic numbers (LCNs) which are defined as the mean value of the distribution of the local variations of the tangent vectors to the flow (=ln _k ⁱ ) (see Froeschlé, 1984) have been found to be sensitive indicators of stochasticity. So we computed the distribution of these local variations and determined the moments of higher order for the integrable and stochastic regions in a binary star system with =0.5.  相似文献   

Coupled atmosphere-ocean models of Titan's past     

McKay CP  Pollack JB  Lunine JI  Courtin R 《Icarus》1993,102(1):88-98

We have developed a coupled atmosphere and ocean model of Titan's surface. The atmospheric model is a 1-D spectrally-resolved radiative-convective model. The ocean thermodynamics are based upon solution theory. The ocean, initially composed of CH4, becomes progressively enriched in ethane over time. The partial pressures of N2 and CH4 in the atmosphere are dependent on the ocean temperature and composition. We find that the resulting system is stable against a runaway greenhouse. Accounting for the decreased solar luminosity, we find that Titan's surface temperature was about 20 K colder 4 Gyr ago. Without an ocean, but only small CH4 lakes, the temperature change is 12 K. In both cases we find that the surface of Titan may have been ice covered about 3 Gyr ago. In the lakes case condensation of N2 provides the ice, whereas in the ocean case the ocean freezes. The dominant factor influencing the evolution of Titan's surface temperature is the change in the solar constant--amplified, if an ocean is present, by the temperature dependence of the solubility of N2. Accretional heating can dramatically alter the surface temperature; a surface thermal flux of 500 erg cm-2 sec-1, representative of small levels of accretional heating, results in a approximately 20 K change in surface temperatures.  相似文献   

The importance of radiative transfer in stellar pulsation models     

C. G. Davis 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1993,210(1-2):325-327

With the advent of new astrophysical opacities it seems appropriate to discuss the need for a full radiative transfer (RT) theory instead of the usual equilibrium diffusion theory used in most nonlinear pulsation codes. Early studies on the importance of RT in the calculation of light curves for Cepheid models showed little effect over diffusion theory. The new opacities though may help to explain the bump mass discrepancy problem. For RR Lyrae models the use of RT theory causes some effects both in the color differences (U-B) as well as in the light curves. New opacities help to explain the period ratios for double mode RR Lyrae and beat Cepheids. A new area of research is in the modeling of stars with high luminosity to mass ratios that show tendencies for doubling and transitions to chaos, such as W Virginis and RV Tauri stars. For these stars it has been shown that RT is necessary in calculating their light curves and that the understanding of the shock dynamics depends on the transfer of lines in the pulsating RT dependent atmospheres (Fokin 1991).  相似文献   

A photometric study of the eclipsing binary V 1073 Cygni     

C. Sezer 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1993,208(1):15-31

Photoelectric observations of the eclipsing binary V 1073 Cyg have been carried out inB andV colours at the Ege University Observatory. The light curves were analyzed with the Wilson-Devinney approach. A period study reveals that the orbital period of the system is decreasing at the rate of (3.21 ± 0.17) second per century.  相似文献   

Adsorption of fluoride on goethite surfaces-implications on dental epidemiology   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

K. B. P. N. Jinadasa  C. B. Dissanayake  S. V. R. Weerasooriya  A. Senaratne 《Environmental Geology》1993,21(4):251-255

Fluoride ion interaction with synthetically prepared goethite has been investigated over a range of pH values (4–9) and F^– concentrations (10^–3–10^–5 M). The amount of F^– retained by goethite suspensions was found to be a function of pH, media ionic strength, F^– concentration, and goethite concentration. The lowest ionic strength (0.001 M KNO₃) gave the highest adsorption medium. Uptake was minimal at pH >7 and increased with decreasing pH. Thermodynamic properties for fluoride adsorption at 298 K and 323 K were investigated. The isosteric heat of adsorption (H _r) was calculated and the heterogeneity and homogeneity of the surface examined for goethite. In view of the importance of fluoride in dental health, the interaction of fluoride on goethite in the physical environment has important implications on dental epidemiology.  相似文献   

The new Russian minorities: a statistical overview     

Harris CD 《Post-Soviet geography》1993,34(1):1-27

The author "presents a succinct review of the newly constituted Russian minorities situated in the former Soviet republics. Based on census data series (1897 to 1989) and original computations, the paper covers location (highest proportion of Russians in Kazakhstan, Latvia, and Estonia), concentration (predominantly urban), occupational structure (largely in industry and science), and related data on issues such as language affinities and migration."  相似文献