A multi-hazard regional level impact assessment for Europe combining indicators of climatic and non-climatic change     

Tobias Lung  Carlo Lavalle  Roland Hiederer  Alessandro Dosio  Laurens M. Bouwer 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(2):522-536

To better prioritise adaptation strategies to a changing climate that are currently being developed, there is a need for quantitative regional level assessments that are systematic and comparable across multiple weather hazards. This study presents an indicator-based impact assessment framework at NUTS-2 level for the European Union that quantifies potential regional changes in weather-related hazards: heat stress in relation to human health, river flood risk, and forest fire risk. This is done by comparing the current (baseline) situation with two future time periods, 2011–2040 and 2041–2070. The indicator values for the baseline period are validated against observed impact data. For each hazard, the method integrates outcomes of a set of coherent high-resolution regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project based on the SRES A1B emission scenario, with current and projected non-climatic drivers of risk, such as land use and socio-economic change. An index of regional adaptive capacity has been developed and compared with overall hazard impact in order to identify the potentially most vulnerable regions in Europe. The results show strongest increases in impacts for heat stress, followed by forest fire risk, while for flood risk the sign and magnitude of change vary across regions. A major difference with previous studies is that heat stress risk could increase most in central Europe, which is due to the ageing population there. An overall assessment combining the three hazards shows a clear trend towards increasing impact from climaterelated natural hazards for most parts of Europe, but hotspot regions are found in eastern and southern Europe due to their low adaptive capacities. This spatially explicit assessment can serve as a basis for discussing climate adaptation mainstreaming, and priorities for regional development in the EU.  相似文献   

Joint editorial – Fostering innovation and improving impact assessment for journal publications in hydrology     

Demetris Koutsoyiannis  Günter Blöschl  András Bárdossy  Christophe Cudennec  Denis Hughes  Alberto Montanari 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(7):1170-1173

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A thermo-plastic constitutive law for brittle-plastic behavior of rocks at high temperatures     

Tomasz Hueckel  Alberto Peano  Rita Pellegrini 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1994,143(1-3):483-510

Mechanical properties of rocks change under the influence of, temperature. Stress at the onset of yielding, ultimate strength, dilatancy, strain hardening and softening, and the confining pressure at brittle-ductile transition are all reduced by the increasing temperature. This study presents a framework of constitutive modeling of thermo-brittle-plastic behavior of rocks which encompasses these changes. The constitutive law is based on a thermo-plasticity theory first proposed for metals byPrager (1958). Two phenomenological mechanisms have been identified as central for the modeling: temperature dependence of the yield locus (thermal softening), and temperature dependence of the strain-hardening function (thermally enhanced ductility). Material parameters for two rocks, Carrara marble and Westerly granite, were determined on the basis of additional hypotheses. These parameters are used in numerical simulations of triaxial tests at different temperatures. The obtained stress-strain curves compare well to the experimental results. The changes with temperature in the stress at the onset of yielding are more accurately reproduced that the evolution of hardening or softening. Suggestions for possible improvements and future research directions are indicated.  相似文献   

Post glacial lacustrine event sedimentation in an ancient mountain setting: Carboniferous Lake Malanzán (Western Argentina)     

Luis Alberto Buatois  Maria Gabriela Mángano 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1995,14(1):1-22

Lacustrine deposits of the Malanzán Formation record sedimentation in a small and narrow mountain paleovalley. Lake Malanzán was one of several water bodies formed in the Paganzo Basin during the Late Carboniferous deglaciation. Five sedimentary facies have been recognized. Facies A (Dropstones-bearing laminated mudstones) records deposition from suspension fall-out and probably underflow currents coupled with ice-rafting processes in a basin lake setting. Facies B (Ripple cross-laminated sandstones and siltstones) was deposited from low density turbidity currents in a lobe fringe environment. Facies C (Massive or graded sandstones) is thought to represent sedimentation from high and low density turbidity currents in sand lobes. Facies D (Folded sandstones and siltstones) was formed from slumping in proximal lobe environments. Facies E (Wave-rippled sandstones) records wave reworking of sands supplied by turbidity currents above wave base level.The Lake Malanzán succession is formed by stacked turbidite sand lobe deposits. These lobes were probably formed in proximal lacustrine settings, most likely relatively high gradient slopes. Paleocurrents indicate a dominant direction from cratonic areas to the WSW. Although the overall sequence shows a regressive trend from basin fine-grained deposits to deltaic and braided fluvial facies, individual lobe packages lack of definite vertical trends in bed thickness and grain size. This fact suggests aggradation from multiple-point sources, rather than progradation from single-point sources. Sedimentologic and paleoecologic evidence indicate high depositional rate and sediment supply. Deposition within the lake was largely dominated by event sedimentation. Low diversity trace fossil assemblages of opportunistic invertebrates indicate recolonization of event beds under stressed conditions.Three stages of lake evolutionary history have been distinguished. The vertical replacement of braided fluvial deposits by basinal facies indicates high subsidence and a lacustrine transgressive episode. This flooding event was probably linked to a notable base level rise during postglacial times. The second evolutionary stage was typified by the formation of sand turbidite lobes from downslope mass-movements. Lake history culminates with the progradation of deltaic and braided fluvial systems  相似文献   

Emission of nitric oxide from soils and termite nests in a Trachypogon savanna of the Orinoco basin   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Alberto Rondón  Christer Johansson  Fugenio Sanhueza 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1993,17(3):293-306

Nitric oxide fluxes from soils in the Trachypogon savanna of the Orinoco basin were determined during the dry season using the static chamber method. The emission from dry soils fluctuated from 0.4 to 3 ng N m^–2 s^–1 and increased up to 25 ng N m^–2 s^–1 after moderate watering or light rain-falls (1 to 5 mm). The mean emission values are up to 6 times lower than one observed earlier at the Chaguaramas site, but up to 10 times higher than one recorded at the Guri site, indicating an important spatial variability in NO fluxes of the Venezuelan savanna region. The changes observed after the addition of nitrogen to the soil, in the form of ammonium and/or nitrate, indicate a high denitrification potential in this acidic soil. Burning of the surface vegetation produced an increase by a factor of 10 in the emission rate of NO, but the effect was relatively short in time, about 5 days. It was estimated for the savanna region that burning increases the total NO soil emission during the dry season by 15% compared to the unburnt case. Soils with termite nests emit 10 times more NO than soil without nests, but the contribution from this source is less than 2% of the total savanna soil flux.  相似文献   

Taphonomy of guanaco bones in Tierra del Fuego     

Luis Alberto Borrero 《Quaternary Research》1990,34(3)

Guanaco carcasses are deposited in great quantities in Cabo San Pablo, Tierra del Fuego (Argentina), as a result of winter stress. Taphonomic studies indicate that the gnawing action of foxes on guanaco (Lama guanicoe) carcasses produces only very tenuous marks on the bones. Lack of sustained interest in the carcasses by carnivores results in slow disarticulation. The articulated and disarticulated bones are exposed to heavy trampling by guanacos, a process that produces vertical migration of small/dense bones and fracturing of the most weathered bones. An understanding of this ongoing process is important for local archaeology, since modern bones are migrating into archaeological contexts. A regional approach to taphonomy is the most appropriate instrument to solve this and other related problems.  相似文献   

The 15 m.y. geomagnetic reversal periodicity: a quantitative test     

Alain Mazaud  Carlo Laj 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1991,107(3-4)

We have analyzed the three most commonly used geomagnetic polarity time scales that cover the past 100 m.y.. In the three cases, different spectral analyses show a 13–16 m.y. periodicity in the rate of reversal occurrence. To test whether this periodicity is real or simply arises from a random generator we have compared these polarity time scales with a large number of synthetic sequences produced by a random process, characterized by a linear time variation of its mean activity. Geomagnetic and generated sequences were regularly sampled by using sliding windows, anf then the Fourier spectra of the obtained frequency signals were compared. This test shows that the detected periodicity is presumably not a simple statistical fluctuation of an aperiodic generator, and consequently that a long-term periodicity in the geodynamo must be seriously considered.  相似文献   

Soil-structure interaction with Rayleigh waves     

Alberto Gmez-Mass  John Lysmer  Jian-Chu Chen  H. Bolton Seed 《地震工程与结构动力学》1983,11(4):567-583

Presented is a plane-strain method for soil-structure interaction analysis consisting of the superposition of the free field motions and the interaction motions in a generalized seismic environment. The free field is modelled as a horizontally layered viscoelastic medium and the seismic environment may consist of a combination of S, P and Rayleigh waves. The soil-structure system is modelled with viscoelastic finite elements, transmitting boundaries, viscous boundaries and a three-dimensional simulation. Comparative analyses of the same structure are conducted for an input of R waves and for vertically propagating S and P waves in a rock site and sand site. In the rock site the R waves produce higher peak horizontal spectral acceleration up to 25 per cent, and a significant rocking effect at points away from the centre of gravity of the structure. However, the S and P waves show higher peak vertical spectral acceleration by up to 15 per cent at the centre of the structure. Very similar horizontal response, but higher vertical response only at the centre of the structure for S and P waves, is obtained for the sand site.  相似文献   

Direct and Indirect pCO2 Measurements in a Wide Range of pCO2 and Salinity Values (The Scheldt Estuary)     

Michel Frankignoulle  Alberto Vieira Borges 《Aquatic Geochemistry》2001,7(4):267-273

Recent improvements in both Infra-red spectroscopy and equilibrator techniqueshave allowed to determine, for the first time, pCO₂using simultaneously and continuously both the direct and indirect methods in an estuary where pCO₂ values range from 500 to 8500 atm and salinity from 0 to 30. Our results show that both methods are in excellent agreement in the wholeestuary (r² = 0.999, n = 1075, p < 0.0001). Thus, the NBS (US National Bureau of Standards) scale, although inadequate for seawater samples, is appropriate for estuarine waters and can be applied with confidence to calculate pCO₂.  相似文献   

An energy-duration procedure for rapid determination of earthquake magnitude and tsunamigenic potential   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Anthony Lomax  Alberto Michelini  Alessio Piatanesi 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,170(3):1195-1209

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