Introduction – Neoliberalism and urban space in Latin America and the Caribbean     

Rivke Jaffe  José Carlos G. Aguiar 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2012,33(2):153-156

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The new national climate change documents of Mexico: what do the regional climate change scenarios represent?     

Francisco Estrada  Benjamín Martínez-López  Cecilia Conde  Carlos Gay-García 《Climatic change》2012,110(3-4):1029-1046

This paper presents a review of the methodology applied for generating the regional climate change scenarios utilized in important National Documents of Mexico, such as the Fourth National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Fourth National Report to the Convention on Biological Diversity and The Economics of Climate Change in Mexico. It is shown that these regional climate change scenarios, which are one of the main inputs to support the assessments presented in these documents, are an example of the erroneous use of statistical downscaling techniques. The arguments presented here imply that the work based on such scenarios should be revised and therefore, these documents are inadequate for supporting national decision- making.  相似文献   

Extreme climatic events in the Amazon basin   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jose Antonio Marengo  Javier Tomasella  Wagner R. Soares  Lincoln M. Alves  Carlos A. Nobre 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,107(1-2):73-85

During 2009 the Amazon basin was hit by a heavy flooding with a magnitude and duration few times observed in several decades. Torrential rain in northern and eastern Amazonia during the austral summer of 2008–2009 swelled the Amazon River and its tributaries. By July 2009, water levels of the Rio Negro, a major Amazon tributary, reached at Manaus harbor a new record, the highest mark of the last 107?years. During the 2008–2009 hydrological year, the rainy season on northern and northwestern Amazonia started prematurely, and was followed by a longer-than-normal rainy season. An anomalously southward migration of the ITCZ during May–June 2009, due to the warmer than normal surface waters in the tropical South Atlantic, was responsible for abundant rainfall in large regions of eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil from May to July 2009. We also compared the flood of 2009 with other major events recorded in 1989 and 1999. The hydrological consequences of this pattern were earlier than normal floods in Amazon northern tributaries, which peak discharges at their confluences with the main stem almost coincided with the peaks of southern tributaries. Since the time displacement of the contribution to the main stem of northern and southern Amazon tributaries is fundamental for damping flood waves in the main stem, the simultaneous combinations of peak discharges of tributaries resulted in an extreme flood.  相似文献   

Evolution and modulation of tropical heating from the last glacial maximum through the twenty-first century   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Carlos D. Hoyos  Peter J. Webster 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(7-8):1501-1519

Twentieth century observations show that during the last 50?years the sea-surface temperature (SST) of the tropical oceans has increased by ~0.5°C and the area of SST >26.5 and 28°C (arbitrarily referred to as the oceanic warm pool: OWP) by 15 and 50% respectively in association with an increase in green house gas concentrations, with non-understood natural variability or a combination of both. Based on CMIP3 projections the OWP is projected to double during twenty-first century in a moderate CO₂ forcing scenario (IPCC A1B scenario). However, during the observational period the area of positive atmospheric heating (referred to as the dynamic warm pool, DWP), has remained constant. The threshold SST (T _H ), which demarks the region of net heating and cooling, has increased from 26.6°C in the 1950s to 27.1°C in the last decade and it is projected to increase to ~28.5°C by 2100. Based on climate model simulations, the area of the DWP is projected to remain constant during the twenty-first century. Analysis of the paleoclimate model intercomparison project (PMIP I and II) simulations for the Last Glacial maximum and the Mid-Holocene periods show a very similar behaviour, with a larger OWP in periods of elevated tropical SST, and an almost constant DWP associated with a varying T _H . The constancy of the DWP area, despite shifts in the background SST, is shown to be the result of a near exact matching between increases in the integrated convective heating within the DWP and the integrated radiative cooling outside the DWP as SST changes. Although the area of the DWP remains constant, the total tropical atmospheric heating is a strong function of the SST. For example the net heating has increased by about 10% from 1950 to 2000 and it is projected to increase by a further 20% by 2100. Such changes must be compensated by a more vigorous atmospheric circulation, with growth in convective heating within the warm pool, and an increase of subsiding air and stability outside the convective warm pool and an increase of vertical shear at the DWP boundaries. This finding is contrary to some conclusions from other studies but in accord with others. We discuss the similarities and differences at length.  相似文献   

Objective probabilities about future climate are a matter of opinion     

Carlos Gay  Francisco Estrada 《Climatic change》2010,99(1-2):27-46

In this paper, the unfeasibility of producing “objective” probabilistic climate change scenarios is discussed. Realizing that the knowledge of “true” probabilities of the different scenarios and temperature changes is unachievable, the objective must be to find the probabilities that are the most consistent with what our state of knowledge and expert judgment are. Therefore, subjective information plays, and should play, a crucial role. A new methodology, based on the Principle of Maximum Entropy, is proposed for constructing probabilistic climate change scenarios when only partial information is available. The objective is to produce relevant information for decision-making according to different agents’ judgment and subjective beliefs. These estimates have desirable properties such as: they are the least biased estimate possible on the available information; maximize the uncertainty (entropy) subject to the partial information that is given; The maximum entropy distribution assigns a positive probability to every event that is not excluded by the given information; no possibility is ignored. The probabilities obtained in this manner are the best predictions possible with the state of knowledge and subjective information that is available. This methodology allows distinguishing between reckless and cautious positions regarding the climate change threat.  相似文献   

Ocean–atmosphere coupling and the boreal winter MJO     

Hye-Mi Kim  Carlos D. Hoyos  Peter J. Webster  In-Sik Kang 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(5):771-784

The influence of ocean–atmosphere coupling on the simulation and prediction of the boreal winter Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is examined using the Seoul National University coupled general circulation model (CGCM) and atmospheric—only model (AGCM). The AGCM is forced with daily SSTs interpolated from pentad mean CGCM SSTs. Forecast skill is examined using serial extended simulations spanning 26 different winter seasons with 30-day forecasts commencing every 5 days providing a total of 598 30-day simulations. By comparing both sets of experiments, which share the same atmospheric components, the influence of coupled ocean–atmosphere processes on the simulation and prediction of MJO can be studied. The mean MJO intensity possesses more realistic amplitude in the CGCM than in AGCM. In general, the ocean–atmosphere coupling acts to improve the simulation of the spatio-temporal evolution of the eastward propagating MJO and the phase relationship between convection (OLR) and SST over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western Pacific. Both the CGCM and observations exhibit a near-quadrature relationship between OLR and SST, with the former lagging by about two pentads. However, the AGCM shows a less realistic phase relationship. As the initial conditions are the same in both models, the additional forcing by SST anomalies in the CGCM extends the prediction skill beyond that of the AGCM. To test the applicability of the CGCM to real-time prediction, we compute the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index and compared it with the index computed from observations. RMM1 (RMM2) falls away rapidly to 0.5 after 17–18 (15–16) days in the AGCM and 18–19 (16–17) days in the CGCM. The prediction skill is phase dependent in both the CGCM and AGCM.  相似文献   

On the peculiar momentum of baryons after reionization     

Carlos Hernández-Monteagudo  Shirley Ho 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,398(2):790-806

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Appearance of Saturn’s F ring azimuthal channels for the anti-alignment configuration between the ring and Prometheus     

Carlos E. Chavez 《Icarus》2009,203(1):233-237

In this article we explore the aspect of the F ring with respect to the anti-alignment configuration between the ring and Prometheus. We focus our attention on the shape of the F ring’s azimuthal channels which were first reported by Porco et al. (Porco, C.C., Baker, E., Barbara, J., Beurle, K., Brahic, A., Burns, J.A., Charnoz, S., Cooper, N., Dawson, D.D., Del Genio, A.D., Denk, T., Dones, L., Dyudina, U., Evans, M.W., Giese, B., Grazier, K., Helfenstein, P., Ingersoll, A.P., Jacobson, R.A., Johnson, T.V., McEwen, A., Murray, C.D., Neukum, G., Owen, W.M., Perry, J., Roatsch, T., Spitale, J., Squyres, S., Thomas, P., Tiscareno, M., Turtle, E., Vasavada, A.R., Veverka, J., Wagner, R., West, R. [2005] Science, 307, 1226-1236) and numerically explored by Murray et al. (Murray, C.D., Chavez, C., Beurle, K., Cooper, N., Evans, M.W., Burns, J.A., Porco, C.C. [2005] Nature 437, 1326-1329) who found excellent agreement between Cassini’s ISS reprojected images and their numerical model via a direct comparison. We find that for anti-alignment the channels are wider and go deeper inside the ring material. From our numerical model we find a new feature, an island in the middle of the channel. This island is made up of the particles that have been perturbed the most by Prometheus and only appears when this satellite is close to apoapsis. In addition, plots of the anti-alignment configuration for different orbital stages of Prometheus are obtained and discussed here.  相似文献   

Non-Gaussian distribution and clustering of hot and cold pixels in the five-year WMAP sky     

Graziano Rossi  Ravi K. Sheth  Changbom Park  Carlos Hernández-Monteagudo 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,399(1):304-316

We present measurements of the clustering of hot and cold patches in the microwave background sky as measured from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe 5-year data. These measurements are compared with theoretical predictions which assume that the cosmological signal obeys Gaussian statistics. We find significant differences from the simplest Gaussian-based prediction. However, the measurements are sensitive to the fact that the noise is spatially inhomogeneous (e.g. because different parts of the sky were observed for different lengths of time). We show how to account for this spatial inhomogeneity when making predictions. Differences from the Gaussian-based expectation remain even after this more careful accounting of the noise. In particular, we note that hot and cold pixels cluster differently within the same temperature thresholds at few-degree scales. While these findings may indicate primordial non-Gaussianity, we discuss other plausible explanations for these discrepancies. In addition, we find some deviations from Gaussianity at sub-degree scales, especially in the W band, whose origin may be associated with extragalactic dust emission.  相似文献   

Effects of dark matter substructures on gravitational lensing: results from the Aquarius simulations     

D. D. Xu  Shude Mao  Jie Wang  V. Springel  Liang Gao  S. D. M. White  Carlos S. Frenk  Adrian Jenkins  Guoliang Li  Julio F. Navarro 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,398(3):1235-1253

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