Partial duration series distributions of the European dry spell lengths for the second half of the twentieth century     

C. Serra  Xavier Lana  A. Burgueño  M. D. Martínez 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2016,123(1-2):63-81

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Changes in surface solar radiation in Northeastern Spain over the past six centuries recorded by tree-ring δ13C     

I. Dorado-Liñán  A. Sanchez-Lorenzo  E. Gutiérrez Merino  O. Planells  I. Heinrich  G. Helle  E. Zorita 《Climate Dynamics》2016,47(3-4):937-950

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Abrupt transitions in the NAO control of explosive North Atlantic cyclone development     

Iñigo Gómara  Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca  Pablo Zurita-Gotor  Sven Ulbrich  Joaquim G. Pinto 《Climate Dynamics》2016,47(9-10):3091-3111

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Urban seismic risk index for Medellín,Colombia, based on probabilistic loss and casualties estimations     

Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez  Daniela Zuloaga Romero  César A. Velásquez  Martha L. Carreño  Omar-Darío Cardona  Alex H. Barbat 《Natural Hazards》2016,80(3):1995-2021

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Influence of Mussel Culture on the Vertical Export of Phytoplankton Carbon in a Coastal Upwelling Embayment (Ría de Vigo,NW Iberia)     

M. Froján  F. G. Figueiras  D. Zúñiga  F. Alonso-Pérez  B. Arbones  C. G. Castro 《Estuaries and Coasts》2016,39(5):1449-1462

The goal of this paper is to find out whether suspended mussel culture affects the vertical fluxes of biogenic particles in the Ría de Vigo on a seasonal scale. With this aim, vertical fluxes of particulate organic carbon (POC) and the magnitude and composition of vertical export of phytoplankton carbon (Cphyto) collected in sediment traps were examined by comparing data obtained inside a mussel farming area (RaS) with those found at a reference station (ReS) not affected by mussels. Our results indicate that mussel farming has a strong impact on sedimentation fluxes under the rafts, not only increasing POC flux but also altering the magnitude and composition of Cphyto fluxes. Average POC flux at RaS (2564?±?1936 mg m^?2 day^?1) was four times higher than at ReS (731?±?276 mg m^?2 day^?1), and much of this increase was due to biodeposit fluxes (Cbiodep) which accounted for large proportion of POC flux (35–60 %). Indeed, because of this high Cbiodep flux, only a small proportion of the POC flux was due to Cphyto flux (3–12 %). At the same time, we observed an increased sedimentation of phytoplankton cells at RaS that could be explained by a combination of mechanisms: less energetic hydrodynamic conditions under mussel rafts, ballast effect by sinking mussel feces, and diatom aggregates. Moreover, mussel farming also altered the quality of the Cphyto flux by removing part of the predatory pressure of zooplankton and thus matching diatom composition in water column and sediment traps.  相似文献   

A robust debris-flow and GLOF risk management strategy for a data-scarce catchment in Santa Teresa,Peru     

Holger Frey  Christian Huggel  Yves Bühler  Daniel Buis  Maria Dulce Burga  Walter Choquevilca  Felipe Fernandez  Javier García Hernández  Claudia Giráldez  Edwin Loarte  Paul Masias  Cesar Portocarrero  Luis Vicuña  Marco Walser 《Landslides》2016,13(6):1493-1507

The town of Santa Teresa (Cusco Region, Peru) has been affected by several large debris-flow events in the recent past, which destroyed parts of the town and resulted in a resettlement of the municipality. Here, we present a risk analysis and a risk management strategy for debris-flows and glacier lake outbursts in the Sacsara catchment. Data scarcity and limited understanding of both physical and social processes impede a full quantitative risk assessment. Therefore, a bottom-up approach is chosen in order to establish an integrated risk management strategy that is robust against uncertainties in the risk analysis. With the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model, a reconstruction of a major event from 1998 in the Sacsara catchment is calculated, including a sensitivity analysis for various model parameters. Based on the simulation results, potential future debris-flows scenarios of different magnitudes, including outbursts of two glacier lakes, are modeled for assessing the hazard. For the local communities in the catchment, the hazard assessment is complemented by the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and fieldwork. Physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability are considered for the vulnerability assessment, and risk is eventually evaluated by crossing the local hazard maps with the vulnerability. Based on this risk analysis, a risk management strategy is developed, consisting of three complementing elements: (i) standardized risk sheets for the communities; (ii) activities with the local population and authorities to increase social and institutional preparedness; and (iii) a simple Early Warning System. By combining scientific, technical, and social aspects, this work is an example of a framework for an integrated risk management strategy in a data scarce, remote mountain catchment in a developing country.  相似文献   

Linear discriminant analysis to describe the relationship between rainfall and landslides in Bogotá, Colombia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alfonso Mariano Ramos-Cañón  Luis Felipe Prada-Sarmiento  Mario Germán Trujillo-Vela  Juan Pablo Macías  Ana Carolina Santos-R 《Landslides》2016,13(4):671-681

Bogotá is located in the central Andean region of Colombia, which is frequently affected by landslide processes. These processes are mostly triggered during the rainy season in the city. This fact remarks the importance of determining what rain-derived parameters (e.g. intensity, antecedent rain, daily rain) are better related with the occurrence of landslides. For this purpose, the linear discriminant analysis (LDA), a technique derived from multivariate statistics, was used. The application of this type of analysis led to obtain simple mathematical functions that represent the probability of occurrence of landslides in Bogotá. The functions also allow to identify the most relevant variables derived from records of rainfall linked to the generation of landslides. A proof of concept using the proposed methodology was done using historic rainfall data from a 9-km² area of homogenous climatology and geomorphology in the south part of Bogotá. Landslides needed to be grouped for the LDA. Each one of these grouping categories represents landslides that occurred in similar geomorphologic conditions. Another set of events with no landslides was generated synthetically. Results of the proof of concept show that rainfall parameters such as normalized rainfall intensity I _MAP, normalized daily rainfall R _MAP and rainy-days normal RDN have the best statistical correlation with the landslides observed in the zone of analysis.  相似文献   

Metallic Mineral Resources in the Twenty-First Century. I. Historical Extraction Trends and Expected Demand     

Alberto E. Patiño Douce 《Natural Resources Research》2016,25(1):71-90

Industrial, technological, and economic developments depend on the availability of metallic raw materials. As a greater fraction of the Earth’s population has become part of developed economies and as developed societies have become more affluent, the demand on metallic mineral resources has increased. Yet metallic minerals are non-renewable natural resources, the supply of which, even if unknown and potentially large, is finite. An analysis of historical extraction trends for eighteen metals, going back to the year 1900, demonstrates that demand of metallic raw materials has increased as a result of both increase in world population and increase in per-capita consumption. These eighteen metals can be arranged into four distinct groups, for each of which it is possible to identify a consistent pattern of per-capita demand as a function of time. These patterns can, in turn, be explained in terms of the industrial and technological applications, and in some cases conventional uses as well, of the metals in each group. Under the assumption that these patterns will continue into the future, and that world population will grow by no more than about 50% by the year 2100, one can estimate the amount of metallic raw materials that will be required to sustain the world’s economy throughout the twenty-first century. From the present until the year 2100, the world can be expected to require about one order of magnitude more metal than the total amount of metal that fueled technological and economic growth between the age of steam and the present day. For most of the metals considered here, this corresponds to 5–10 times the amount of metal contained in proven ore reserves. The two chief driving factors of this expected demand are growth in per-capita consumption and present-day absolute population numbers. World population is already so large that additional population growth makes only a small contribution to the expected future demand of metallic raw materials. It is not known whether or not the amount of metal required to sustain the world’s economy throughout this century exists in exploitable mineral resources. In the accompanying paper, I show that it is nevertheless possible to make statistical inferences about the size distribution of the mineral deposits that will need to be discovered and developed in order to satisfy the expected demand. Those results neither prove nor disprove that the needed resources exist but can be used to improve our understanding of the challenges facing future supply of metallic raw materials.  相似文献   

Unraveling the Peruvian Phase of the Central Andes: stratigraphy,sedimentology and geochronology of the Salar de Atacama Basin (22°30–23°S), northern Chile          下载免费PDF全文

Sebastián Bascuñán  César Arriagada  Jacobus Le Roux  Katja Deckart 《Basin Research》2016,28(3):365-392

The Salar de Atacama Basin holds important information regarding the tectonic activity, sedimentary environments and their variations in northern Chile during Cretaceous times. About 4000 m of high‐resolution stratigraphic columns of the Tonel, Purilactis and Barros Arana Formations reveal braided fluvial and alluvial facies, typical of arid to semi‐arid environments, interrupted by scarce intervals with evaporitic, aeolian and lacustrine sedimentation, displaying an overall coarsening‐upward trend. Clast‐count and point‐count data evidence the progressive erosion from Mesozoic volcanic rocks to Palaeozoic basement granitoids and deposits located around the Cordillera de Domeyko area, which is indicative of an unroofing process. The palaeocurrent data show that the source area was located to the west. The U/Pb detrital zircon geochronological data give maximum depositional ages of 149 Ma for the base of the Tonel Formation (Agua Salada Member), and 107 Ma for its middle member (La Escalera Member); 79 Ma for the lower Purilactis Formation (Limón Verde Member), and 73 Ma for the Barros Arana Formation. The sources of these zircons were located mainly to the west, and comprised from the Coastal Cordillera to the Precordillera. The ages and pulses record the tectonic activity during the Peruvian Phase, which can be split into two large events; an early phase, around 107 Ma, showing uplift of the Coastal Cordillera area, and a late phase around 79 Ma indicating an eastward jump of the deformation front to the Cordillera de Domeyko area. The lack of internal deformation and the thicknesses measured suggest that deposition of the units occurred in the foredeep zone of an eastward‐verging basin. This sedimentation would have ended with the K‐T phase, recognized in most of northern Chile.  相似文献   

Spatial characterization of the seawater upconing process in a coastal Mediterranean aquifer (Plana de Castellón,Spain): evolution and controls     

Olga García-Menéndez  Ignacio Morell  Bruno J. Ballesteros  Arianna Renau-Pruñonosa  Alejandra Renau-Llorens  Mª Vicenta Esteller 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(9):728

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