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Following IPCC guidelines (IPCC 2006), we estimate greenhouse gas emissions related to livestock in 237 countries and 11 livestock categories during the period 1961–2010. We find that in 2010 emissions of methane and nitrous oxide related to livestock worldwide represented approximately 9 % of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Global GHG emissions from livestock increased by 51 % during the analyzed period, mostly due to strong growth of emissions in developing (Non-Annex I) countries (+117 %). In contrast, developed country (Annex I) emissions decreased (?23 %). Beef and dairy cattle are the largest source of livestock emissions (74 % of global livestock emissions). Since developed countries tend to have lower CO2-equivalent GHG emissions per unit GDP and per quantity of product generated in the livestock sector, the amount of wealth generated per unit GHG emitted from the livestock sector can be increased by improving both livestock farming practices in developing countries and the overall state of economic development. Our results reveal important details of how livestock production and associated GHG emissions have occurred in time and space. Discrepancies with higher tiers, demonstrate the value of more detailed analyses, and discourage over interpretation of smaller-scale trends in the Tier 1 results, but do not undermine the value of global Tier 1 analysis. 相似文献
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G. Bala Ken Caldeira Rama Nemani Long Cao George Ban-Weiss Ho-Jeong Shin 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(5-6):915-931
Recent studies have shown that changes in solar radiation affect the hydrological cycle more strongly than equivalent CO2 changes for the same change in global mean surface temperature. Thus, solar radiation management ??geoengineering?? proposals to completely offset global mean temperature increases by reducing the amount of absorbed sunlight might be expected to slow the global water cycle and reduce runoff over land. However, proposed countering of global warming by increasing the albedo of marine clouds would reduce surface solar radiation only over the oceans. Here, for an idealized scenario, we analyze the response of temperature and the hydrological cycle to increased reflection by clouds over the ocean using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed layer ocean model. When cloud droplets are reduced in size over all oceans uniformly to offset the temperature increase from a doubling of atmospheric CO2, the global-mean precipitation and evaporation decreases by about 1.3% but runoff over land increases by 7.5% primarily due to increases over tropical land. In the model, more reflective marine clouds cool the atmospheric column over ocean. The result is a sinking motion over oceans and upward motion over land. We attribute the increased runoff over land to this increased upward motion over land when marine clouds are made more reflective. Our results suggest that, in contrast to other proposals to increase planetary albedo, offsetting mean global warming by reducing marine cloud droplet size does not necessarily lead to a drying, on average, of the continents. However, we note that the changes in precipitation, evaporation and P-E are dominated by small but significant areas, and given the highly idealized nature of this study, a more thorough and broader assessment would be required for proposals of altering marine cloud properties on a large scale. 相似文献
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Ground motion simulations of the SW Iberia margin: rupture directivity and earth structure effects 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
In this study, we focus on the region between Gorringe Bank and the Horseshoe Fault located in the SW Iberia margin, which is believed to be the site of the great 1755 earthquake. We model ground motions using an extended source located near the Horseshoe scarp to generate synthetic waveforms using a wave propagation code, based on the finite-difference method. We compare the simulated waveforms, for the Algarve Basin and the Lower Tagus Valley Basin (Portugal), using a 3-D velocity model down to the Moho discontinuity with a simple 1-D layered model. The radiated wave field is very sensitive to the velocity model and a small number of source parameters, in particular, the rupture directivity. The rupture directivity, the strike direction and the fault dimensions are critical to the azimuthal distribution of the maximum amplitude oscillations. We show that the use of a stratified 1-D model is inappropriate in SW Iberia, where sources are located in the oceanic domain and receivers in the continental domain. The crustal structure varies dramatically along the ray paths, with large-scale heterogeneities of low or high velocities. Moreover, combined with the geometric limitations inherent to the region, a strong trade-off between several parameters is often observed; this is particularly critical when studying moderate magnitude earthquakes (M < 6), which constitute the bulk of the seismic catalogue in SW Iberia. 相似文献
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Castorina Silva Vieira Maria de Lurdes Lopes Laura M. Caldeira 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2013,31(4):1123-1135
The paper presents results from a computer code, based on limit equilibrium analyses, able to quantify earth pressure coefficients for the internal design of geosynthetic reinforced soil structures and identify the potential failure surfaces. Failure mechanisms assuming bilinear or logarithmic spiral failure surfaces are considered. The influence of the potential failure surface and geosynthetic strength distribution on the earth pressure coefficient is analysed. Required reinforcement tensile strengths calculated by the developed program are compared with values published in the literature. To further evaluate the capabilities of limit equilibrium analyses, the numerical modelling of a geosynthetic reinforced steep slope, designed at ultimate limit state conditions (FS = 1), is also presented. Good agreement was achieved between the potential failure surfaces predicted by limit equilibrium analyses and those obtained with numerical modelling. 相似文献
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J. F. Borges H. G. Silva R. J. G. Torres B. Caldeira M. Bezzeghoud J. A. Furtado J. Carvalho 《Journal of Seismology》2016,20(3):875-887
During its history, several significant earthquakes have shaken the Lower Tagus Valley (Portugal). These earthquakes were destructive; some strong earthquakes were produced by large ruptures in offshore structures located southwest of the Portuguese coastline, and other moderate earthquakes were produced by local faults. In recent years, several studies have successfully obtained strong-ground motion syntheses for the Lower Tagus Valley using the finite difference method. To confirm the velocity model of this sedimentary basin obtained from geophysical and geological data, we analysed the ambient seismic noise measurements by applying the horizontal to vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) method. This study reveals the dependence of the frequency and amplitude of the low-frequency (HVSR) peaks (0.2–2 Hz) on the sediment thickness. We have obtained the depth of the Cenozoic basement along a profile transversal to the basin by the inversion of these ratios, imposing constraints from seismic reflection, boreholes, seismic sounding and gravimetric and magnetic potentials. This technique enables us to improve the existing three-dimensional model of the Lower Tagus Valley structure. The improved model will be decisive for the improvement of strong motion predictions in the earthquake hazard analysis of this highly populated basin. The methodology discussed can be applied to any other sedimentary basin. 相似文献
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Seismicity along the western part of the Eurasia–Nubia plate boundary displays very complex patterns. The average motion is transtensional in the Azores, dextral along the Gloria transform zone and convergent between the SW Portuguese Atlantic margin and the Ibero-Maghrebian zone. To constrain the factors controlling the seismicity, we provide a new seismotectonic synthesis using several earthquakes. We show that the study area can be divided into six different regions, with each characterised by a coherent seismicity pattern. The total seismic moment tensor and the average slip velocities are provided for each region. To determine the spatial distribution of the seismicity, we computed the slip vector for each earthquake based on its focal mechanism and compared it to the relative velocity between the Eurasian and Nubian plates, deduced from global kinematic models. Despite local departures in the Alboran Sea and near the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, we found a good correlation between these two independent vector sets. Quantitatively, the slip velocities display a linear, non-affine correlation with the norms of the relative kinematic velocities. The norms of the slip velocities also seem to depend on the tectonic regime and on the morphology of the plate boundary. 相似文献
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Ground-Motion Simulation in the Lower Tagus Valley Basin 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
J. F. Borges M. Bezzeghoud B. Caldeira João Carvalho 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2015,172(9):2411-2420
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A greenhouse warming caused by increased emissions of carbon dioxide from the Deccan Traps volcanism has been suggested as the cause of the terminal Cretaceous extinctions on land and in the sea. We estimate total eruptive and noneruptive CO2 output by the Deccan eruptions (from 6 to 20 x 10(16) moles) over a period of several hundred thousand years based on best estimates of the CO2 weight fraction of the original basalts and basaltic melts, the fraction of CO2 degassed, and the volume of the Deccan Traps eruptions. Results of a model designed to estimate the effects of increased CO2 on climate and ocean chemistry suggest that increases in atmospheric pCO2 due to Deccan Traps CO2 emissions would have been less than 75 ppm, leading to a predicted global warming of less than 1 degree C over several hundred thousand years. We conclude that the direct climate effects of CO2 emissions from the Deccan eruptions would have been too weak to be an important factor in the end-Cretaceous mass extinctions. 相似文献
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