Prediction of Resource Volumes at Untested Locations Using Simple Local Prediction Models   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Emil D. Attanasi  Timothy C. Coburn  Philip A. Freeman 《Natural Resources Research》2006,15(4):223-239

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses.

Emil D. AttanasiEmail:

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Empirical Methods for Detecting Regional Trends and Other Spatial Expressions in Antrim Shale Gas Productivity, with Implications for Improving Resource Projections Using Local Nonparametric Estimation Techniques     

Timothy C. Coburn  Philip A. Freeman  Emil D. Attanasi 《Natural Resources Research》2012,21(1):1-21

The primary objectives of this research were to (1) investigate empirical methods for establishing regional trends in unconventional gas resources as exhibited by historical production data and (2) determine whether or not incorporating additional knowledge of a regional trend in a suite of previously established local nonparametric resource prediction algorithms influences assessment results. Three different trend detection methods were applied to publicly available production data (well EUR aggregated to 80-acre cells) from the Devonian Antrim Shale gas play in the Michigan Basin. This effort led to the identification of a southeast–northwest trend in cell EUR values across the play that, in a very general sense, conforms to the primary fracture and structural orientations of the province. However, including this trend in the resource prediction algorithms did not lead to improved results. Further analysis indicated the existence of clustering among cell EUR values that likely dampens the contribution of the regional trend. The reason for the clustering, a somewhat unexpected result, is not completely understood, although the geological literature provides some possible explanations. With appropriate data, a better understanding of this clustering phenomenon may lead to important information about the factors and their interactions that control Antrim Shale gas production, which may, in turn, help establish a more general protocol for better estimating resources in this and other shale gas plays.  相似文献   

Origin of ice diapirism, true polar wander, subsurface ocean, and tiger stripes of Enceladus driven by compositional convection     

Dave R. Stegman  J. Freeman  David A. May 《Icarus》2009,202(2):669-680

We consider the scenario in which the presence of ammonia in the bulk composition of Enceladus plays a pivotal role in its thermochemical evolution. Because ammonia reduces the melting temperature of the ice shell by 100 K below that of pure water ice, small amounts of tidal dissipation can power an “ammonia feedback” mechanism that leads to secondary differentiation of Enceladus within the ice shell. This leads to compositionally distinct zones at the base of the ice shell arranged such that a layer of lower density (and compositionally buoyant) pure water ice underlies the undifferentiated ammonia-dihydrate ice layer above. We then consider a large scale instability arising from the pure water ice layer, and use a numerical model to explore the dynamics of compositional convection within the ice shell of Enceladus. The instability of the layer can easily account for a diapir that is hemispherical in scale. As it rises to the surface, it co-advects the warm internal temperatures towards the outer layers of the satellite. This advected heat facilitates the generation of a subsurface ocean within the ice shell of Enceladus. This scenario can simultaneously account for the origin of asymmetry in surface deformation observed on Enceladus as well as two global features inferred to exist: a large density anomaly within the interior and a subsurface ocean underneath the south polar region.  相似文献   

Photometric redshift estimation using spectral connectivity analysis     

P. E. Freeman  J. A. Newman  A. B. Lee  J. W. Richards  C. M. Schafer 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,398(4):2012-2021

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Rates of erosion and landscape change along the Blue Ridge escarpment,southern Appalachian Mountains,estimated from in situ cosmogenic 10Be          下载免费PDF全文

Colleen L. Linari  Paul R. Bierman  Eric W. Portenga  Milan J. Pavich  Robert C. Finkel  Stewart P.H.T. Freeman 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(6):928-940

The Blue Ridge escarpment, located within the southern Appalachian Mountains of Virginia and North Carolina, forms a distinct, steep boundary between the lower‐elevation Piedmont and higher‐elevation Blue Ridge physiographic provinces. To understand better the rate at which this landform and the adjacent landscape are changing, we measured cosmogenic beryllium‐10 (¹⁰Be) in quartz separated from sediment samples (n = 50) collected in 32 streams and from three exposed bedrock outcrops along four transects normal to the escarpment, allowing us to calculate erosion rates integrated over 10⁴–10⁵ years. These basin‐averaged erosion rates (5.4–49 m Myr^?1) are consistent with those measured elsewhere in the southern Appalachain Mountains and show a positive relationship between erosion rate and average basin slope. Erosion rates show no relationship with basin size or relative position of the Brevard fault zone, a fundamental structural element of the region. The cosmogenic isotopic data, when considered along with the distribution of average basin slopes in each physiographic province, suggest that the escarpment is eroding on average more rapidly than the Blue Ridge uplands, which are eroding more rapidly than the Piedmont lowlands. This difference in erosion rates by geomorphic setting suggests that the elevation difference between the uplands and lowlands adjacent to the escarpment is being reduced but at extremely slow rates. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Reconstructing landscape and vegetation through multiple proxy indicators: A geoarchaeological examination of the St. Louis site,Saskatchewan, Canada     

Howard Cyr  Calla McNamee  Leslie Amundson  Andrea Freeman 《Geoarchaeology》2011,26(2):165-188

The St. Louis site, located in the Plains–Parkland transition zone along the South Saskatchewan River, in Saskatchewan, Canada, is a multiple‐component site consisting of stratified floodplain alluvium with multiple, weakly developed soils. Human occupation at the site spans the Late Paleoindian to Middle Precontact periods (10,000–5,000 ¹⁴C yr B.P.), a time poorly represented archaeologically on the Northern Plains. The dearth of early–middle Holocene‐age archaeological sites is often attributed to reduced inhabitability of the Northern Plains during the Hypsithermal, a period of maximum aridity and limited water availability. Stable isotope and phytolith data from the site indicate increased temperatures during the Hypsithermal and an expansion of Northern Plains grasslands into north‐central Saskatchewan. Although characterized by increased xeric conditions, human occupation at the St. Louis site, as well as the predominance of C₃ grasses, attests to the habitability of Northern Plains river systems during this time period. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.  相似文献   

Conservation status of New Zealand marine invertebrates, 2009     

DJ Freeman  BA Marshall  ST Ahyong  SR Wing  RA Hitchmough 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(3):129-148

A re-evaluation of the threat status of New Zealand's marine invertebrates was undertaken in 2009, following earlier review of New Zealand's Threat Classification System and subsequent refinement of the national criteria for classifying threat of extinction to New Zealand's flora and fauna. Sufficient information was available to enable 295 marine invertebrate taxa to be fully evaluated and assigned to a national threat category. The 10 taxa at most risk of extinction (‘nationally critical’) were the giant seep clam Calyptogena sp., the primitive acorn barnacle Chionelasmus crosnieri, O'Shea's vent barnacle Volcanolepas osheai, the stalked barnacle Ibla idiotica, the four-blotched umbrella octopus Cirroctopus hochbergi, the roughy umbrella octopus Opisthoteuthis chathamensis, the giant squid Idioteuthis cordiformis, the large-egged polychaete Boccardiella magniovata and two gravel maggots, Smeagol climoi and Smeagol manneringi. The key threatening processes identified for marine invertebrates were fishing and land-use associated impacts such as sedimentation. We identified no taxa that had improved in threat status as a result of past or ongoing conservation management action, nor any taxa that had worsened in threat status because of known changes in their distribution, abundance or rate of population decline. We evaluated a small fraction of New Zealand's marine invertebrate fauna for their threat status. Many taxa remain ‘data deficient’ or unlisted. In addition to the most threatened taxa, we recommend these taxa and their habitats as priorities for further survey and monitoring.  相似文献   

Retrospective and prospective model simulations of sea level rise impacts on Gulf of Mexico coastal marshes and forests in Waccasassa Bay, Florida   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Laura Geselbracht  Kathleen Freeman  Eugene Kelly  Doria R. Gordon  Francis E. Putz 《Climatic change》2011,107(1-2):35-57

The State of Florida (USA) is especially threatened by sea level rise due to extensive low elevation coastal habitats (approximately 8,000?km²?<?1?m above sea level) where the majority of the human population resides. We used the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) simulation to improve understanding of the magnitude and location of these changes for 58,000?ha of the Waccasassa Bay region of Florida??s central Gulf of Mexico coast. To assess how well SLAMM portrays changes in coastal wetland systems resulting from sea level rise, we conducted a hindcast in which we compared model results to 30?years of field plot data. Overall, the model showed the same pattern of coastal forest loss as observed. Prospective runs of SLAMM using 0.64?m, 1?m and 2?m sea level rise scenarios predict substantial changes over this century in the area covered by coastal wetland systems including net losses of coastal forests (69%, 83%, and 99%, respectively) and inland forests (33%, 50%, and 88%), but net gains of tidal flats (17%, 142%, and 3,837%). One implication of these findings at the site level is that undeveloped, unprotected lands inland from the coastal forest should be protected to accommodate upslope migration of this natural community in response to rising seas. At a broader scale, our results suggest that coastal wetland systems will be unevenly affected across the Gulf of Mexico as sea level rises. Species vulnerable to these anticipated changes will experience a net loss or even elimination.  相似文献   

Hydrogen isotope ratios of leaf wax n-alkanes in grasses are insensitive to transpiration     

Francesca A. McInerney  Brent R. Helliker  Katherine H. Freeman 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2011,75(2):541-554

We analyzed hydrogen isotope ratios of high-molecular weight n-alkanes (δD_l) and oxygen isotope ratios of α-cellulose (δ¹⁸O_C) for C₃ and C₄ grasses grown in the field and in controlled-environment growth chambers. The relatively firm understanding of ¹⁸O-enrichment in leaf water and α-cellulose was used to elucidate fractionation patterns of δD_l signatures. In the different relative humidity environments of the growth chambers, we observed clear and predictable effects of leaf-water enrichment on δ¹⁸O_C values. Using a Craig-Gordon model, we demonstrate that leaf water in the growth chamber grasses should have experienced significant D-enriched due to transpiration. Nonetheless, we found no effect of transpirational D-enrichment on the δD_l values. In field samples, we saw clear evidence of enrichment (correlating with relative humidity of the field sites) in both δ¹⁸O_C and δD_l. These seemingly contrasting results could be explained if leaf waxes are synthesized in an environment that is isotopically similar to water entering plant roots due to either temporal or spatial isolation from evaporatively enriched leaf waters. For grasses in the controlled environment, there was no enrichment of source water, whereas enrichment of grass source water via evaporation from soils and/or stems was likely for grass samples grown in the field.Based on these results, evaporation from soils and/or stems appears to affect δD_l, but transpiration from leaves does not. Further evidence for this conclusion is found in modeling expected net evapotranspirational enrichment. A Craig-Gordon model applied to each of the field sites yields leaf water oxygen isotope ratios that can be used to accurately predict the observed δ¹⁸O_C values. In contrast, the calculated leaf water hydrogen isotope ratios are more enriched than what is required to predict observed δD_l values. These calculations lend support to the conclusion that while δ¹⁸O_C reflects both soil evaporation and transpiration, δD_l appears to only record evaporation from soils and/or stems. Therefore, the δD of n-alkanes can likely be used to reconstruct the δD of water entering a leaf, supporting the soil-enrichment model of Smith and Freeman (2006). In both the field and controlled studies, we found significant photosynthetic pathway effects on n-alkane δD suggesting that biochemical pathways or plant phylogeny have a greater effect on leaf wax δD than leaf-water enrichment in grasses.  相似文献   

Clues from Current High CO2 Environments on the Effects of Ocean Acidification on CaCO3 Preservation     

Andreas J. Andersson  Nicholas R. Bates  Marlene A. Jeffries  Kyra Freeman  Charles Davidson  Shaun Stringer  Evan Betzler  Fred T. Mackenzie 《Aquatic Geochemistry》2013,19(5-6):353-369

Acidification of surface seawater owing to anthropogenic activities has raised serious concerns on its consequences for marine calcifying organisms and ecosystems. To acquire knowledge concerning the future consequences of ocean acidification (OA), researchers have relied on incubation experiments with organisms exposed to future seawater conditions, numerical models, evidence from the geological record, and recently, observations from aquatic environments exposed to naturally high CO₂ and low pH, e.g., owing to volcanic CO₂ vents, upwelling, and groundwater input. In the present study, we briefly evaluate the distribution of dissolved CO₂–carbonic acid parameters at (1) two locations in the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean as a function of depth, (2) a mangrove environment in Bermuda, (3) a seasonally stratified body of water in a semi-enclosed sound in Bermuda, and (4) in temporarily isolated tide pools in Southern California. We demonstrate that current in situ conditions of seawater pCO₂, pH, and CaCO₃ saturation state (Ω) in these environments are similar or even exceed the anticipated changes to these parameters in the open ocean over the next century as a result of OA. The observed differences between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans with respect to seawater CO₂–carbonic acid chemistry, preservation of CaCO₃ minerals, and the occurrence and distribution of deep-sea marine calcifiers, support the hypothesized negative effects of OA on the production and preservation of CaCO₃ in surface seawater. Clues provided from shallow near-shore environments in Bermuda and Southern California support these predictions, but also highlight that many marine calcifiers already experience relatively high seawater pCO₂ and low pH conditions.  相似文献