Co-seismic landslide inventory and susceptibility mapping in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake disaster area, China   总被引：6，自引：5，他引：1  

LI Wei-le  HUANG Run-qiu  TANG Chuan  XU Qiang  Cees van WESTEN 《山地科学学报》2013,10(3):339-354

The Ms 8.0 May 12,2008 Wenchuan earthquake triggered tens of thousands of landslides.The widespread landslides have caused serious casualties and property losses,and posed a great threat to post-earthquake reconstruction.A spatial database,inventoried 43,842 landslides with a total area of 632 km 2,was developed by interpretation of multi-resolution remote sensing images.The landslides can be classified into three categories:swallow,disrupted slides and falls;deep-seated slides and falls,and rock avalanches.The correlation between landslides distribution and the influencing parameters including distance from co-seismic fault,lithology,slope gradient,elevation,peak ground acceleration(PGA) and distance from drainage were analyzed.The distance from co-seismic fault was the most significant parameter followed by slope gradient and PGA was the least significant one.A logistic regression model combined with bivariate statistical analysis(BSA) was adopted for landslide susceptibility mapping.The study area was classified into five categories of landslide susceptibility:very low,low,medium,high and very high.92.0% of the study area belongs to low and very low categories with corresponding 9.0% of the total inventoried landslides.Medium susceptible zones make up 4.2% of the area with 17.7% of the total landslides.The rest of the area was classified into high and very high categories,which makes up 3.9% of the area with corresponding 73.3% of the total landslides.Although the susceptibility map can reveal the likelihood of future landslides and debris flows,and it is helpful for the rebuilding process and future zoning issues.  相似文献   

Comparison of point forecast accuracy of model averaging methods in hydrologic applications   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Cees G. H. Diks  Jasper A. Vrugt 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(6):809-820

Multi-model averaging is currently receiving a surge of attention in the atmospheric, hydrologic, and statistical literature to explicitly handle conceptual model uncertainty in the analysis of environmental systems and derive predictive distributions of model output. Such density forecasts are necessary to help analyze which parts of the model are well resolved, and which parts are subject to considerable uncertainty. Yet, accurate point predictors are still desired in many practical applications. In this paper, we compare a suite of different model averaging techniques by their ability to improve forecast accuracy of environmental systems. We compare equal weights averaging (EWA), Bates-Granger model averaging (BGA), averaging using Akaike’s information criterion (AICA), and Bayes’ Information Criterion (BICA), Bayesian model averaging (BMA), Mallows model averaging (MMA), and Granger-Ramanathan averaging (GRA) for two different hydrologic systems involving water flow through a 1950 km² watershed and 5 m deep vadose zone. Averaging methods with weights restricted to the multi-dimensional simplex (positive weights summing up to one) are shown to have considerably larger forecast errors than approaches with unconstrained weights. Whereas various sophisticated model averaging approaches have recently emerged in the literature, our results convincingly demonstrate the advantages of GRA for hydrologic applications. This method achieves similar performance as MMA and BMA, but is much simpler to implement and use, and computationally much less demanding.  相似文献   

Comment on: “Identification of an underfilled foreland basin system in the Upper Devonian of the Central Pyrenees: implications for the Hercynian orogeny” by Souquet et al., International Journal of Earth Sciences 92:316–337 (2003)     

Jochen?E.?MezgerEmail author  Cees?W.?Passchier 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2004,93(3):467-470

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The generation of ductile and brittle shear bands in a low-angle mylonite zone     

Cees W Passchier 《Journal of Structural Geology》1984,6(3):273-281

In the Saint-Barthélemy Massif, French Pyrenees, a ductile thrust zone developed in gneisses during retrogression from lower amphibolite facies conditions to the upper greenschist facies. The last major structures formed in the zone are isolated shear bands, divided into three types.Anastomosing, inhomogenous ultramylonitic shear bands (Type I) are subparallel to the mylonitic foliation in the gneiss (S_g). Most of these bands developed by ductile deformation processes only.Planar, homogeneous ultramylonite bands (Type II) are usually oblique to S_g. They generated as pseudotachylyte bands by brittle fracturing and underwent strong subsequent ductile deformation.Type III shear bands are planar and oblique to S_g. They consist of pseudotachylyte, weakly affected by ductile deformation.Type I, II and III bands seem to represent progressively younger structures on a local scale, linked to falling P-T conditions. The systematic variation in orientation of the different shear bands with respect to S_g is interpreted as being due to a different response of brittle and ductile structures to the orientation of the kinematic frame and the rock anisotropy.  相似文献   

阿巴拉契亚造山带(纽芬兰岛)阿克利巨型花岗岩基地球化学填图及其成矿制约     

王朝阳  王涛  林寿发  Cees van Staal 《地质学报》2022,96(2):517-532

阿巴拉契亚造山带加拿大纽芬兰岛东南部发育一晚泥盆纪阿克利巨型花岗岩基(～2500 km2).该岩基侵位于甘德和阿瓦隆地块的多佛-赫米蒂奇湾巨型断层带之间,内部发育钨-锡-钼矿床及相关的矿化.本文锆石年代学研究显示,岩基中Tolt单元侵位于378±2 Ma,各单元年龄基本一致,为同期岩浆多次侵位的产物.岩基中主要岩石类型...  相似文献   

Factors controlling landslide frequency–area distributions     

Hakan Tanyaş  Cees J. van Westen  Kate E. Allstadt  Randall W. Jibson 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(4):900-917

A power-law relation for the frequency–area distribution (FAD) of medium and large landslides (e.g. tens to millions of square meters) has been observed by numerous authors. But the FAD of small landslides diverges from the power-law distribution, with a rollover point below which frequencies decrease for smaller landslides. Some studies conclude that this divergence is an artifact of unmapped small landslides due to lack of spatial or temporal resolution; others posit that it is caused by the change in the underlying failure process. An explanation for this dilemma is essential both to evaluate the factors controlling FADs of landslides and power-law scaling, which is a crucial factor regarding both landscape evolution and landslide hazard assessment. This study examines the FADs of 45 earthquake-induced landslide inventories from around the world in the context of the proposed explanations. We show that each inventory probably involves some combination of the proposed explanations, though not all explanations contribute to each case. We propose an alternative explanation to understand the reason for the divergence from a power-law. We suggest that the geometry of a landslide at the time of mapping reflects not just one single movement but many, including the propagation of numerous smaller landslides before and after the main failure. Because only the resulting combination of these landslides can be observed due to a lack of temporal resolution, many smaller landslides are not taken into account in the inventory. This reveals that the divergence from the power-law is not necessarily attributed to the incompleteness of an inventory. This conceptual model will need to be validated by ongoing observation and analysis. Also, we show that because of the subjectivity of mapping procedures, the total number of landslides and total landslide areas in inventories differ significantly, and therefore the shapes of FADs also differ considerably. © 2018 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

Writ in water—Unwritten histories obtained from carbonate deposits in ancient water systems     

Gül Sürmelihindi  Cees Passchier 《Geoarchaeology》2024,39(1):63-88

Calcium carbonate deposits from ancient water systems such as aqueducts are a hidden archive for archaeology and environmental sciences. These deposits formed wherever carbonate-rich water was in contact with a water-containing structure and recorded water composition, temperature, biological content, the operation or nonoperation of a water system segment, flow discharge and velocity, the shape of disappeared segments of water structures, the number of years a water supply system was active, disruptions of the water supply and water management such as repairs, adaptations and cleaning. Indirectly, urban development, resilience, population- and socioeconomic dynamics can be studied through the stratigraphy of carbonate in water systems. Carbonate archives can also give insight into long-term changes in paleoclimate and on environmental pollution, deforestation, extreme floods, droughts, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Archaeological and environmental investigations of carbonate deposits can provide data with up to daily resolution over decades to centuries. Although absolute dating of carbonate from water systems is still problematic, each study on the aqueduct of an ancient city, together with its carbonate deposits, provides its own microstory in Roman life.  相似文献