Extra-tropical atmospheric response to ENSO in the CMIP5 models     

Margaret M. Hurwitz  Natalia Calvo  Chaim I. Garfinkel  Amy H. Butler  Sarah Ineson  Chiara Cagnazzo  Elisa Manzini  Cristina Peña-Ortiz 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(12):3367-3376

The seasonal mean extra-tropical atmospheric response to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is assessed in the historical and pre-industrial control CMIP5 simulations. This analysis considers two types of El Niño events, characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in either the central equatorial Pacific (CP) or eastern equatorial Pacific (EP), as well as EP and CP La Niña events, characterized by negative SST anomalies in the same two regions. Seasonal mean geopotential height anomalies in key regions typify the magnitude and structure of the disruption of the Walker circulation cell in the tropical Pacific, upper tropospheric ENSO teleconnections and the polar stratospheric response. In the CMIP5 ensembles, the magnitude of the Walker cell disruption is correlated with the strength of the mid-latitude responses in the upper troposphere i.e., the North Pacific and South Pacific lows strengthen during El Niño events. The simulated responses to El Niño and La Niña have opposite sign. The seasonal mean extra-tropical, upper tropospheric responses to EP and CP events are indistinguishable. The ENSO responses in the MERRA reanalysis lie within the model scatter of the historical simulations. Similar responses are simulated in the pre-industrial and historical CMIP5 simulations. Overall, there is a weak correlation between the strength of the tropical response to ENSO and the strength of the polar stratospheric response. ENSO-related polar stratospheric variability is best simulated in the “high-top” subset of models with a well-resolved stratosphere.  相似文献   

European blocking and Atlantic jet stream variability in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the CMCC-CMS climate model     

Paolo Davini  Chiara Cagnazzo  Pier Giuseppe Fogli  Elisa Manzini  Silvio Gualdi  Antonio Navarra 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(1-2):71-85

The relationship between atmospheric blocking over Europe and the Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream is investigated in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and in a climate model. This is carried out using a bidimensional blocking index based on geopotential height and a diagnostic providing daily latitudinal position and strength of the jet stream. It is shown that European Blocking (EB) is not decoupled from the jet stream but it is mainly associated with its poleward displacements. Moreover, the whole blocking area placed on the equatorward side of the jet stream, broadly ranging from Azores up to Scandinavia, emerges as associated with poleward jet displacements. The diagnostics are hence applied to two different climate model simulations in order to evaluate the biases in the jet stream and in the blocking representation. This analysis highlights large underestimation of EB, typical feature of general circulation models. Interestingly, observed blocking and jet biases over the Euro-Atlantic area are consistent with the blocking-jet relationship observed in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. Finally, the importance of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is investigated showing that realistic SSTs can reduce the bias in the jet stream variability but not in the frequency of EB. We conclude highlighting that blocking-related diagnostics can provide more information about the Euro-Atlantic variability than diagnostics simply based on the Atlantic jet stream.  相似文献   

Rainfall-induced landslide susceptibility zonation of Puerto Rico   总被引：9，自引：4，他引：5  

Chiara Lepore  Sameer A. Kamal  Peter Shanahan  Rafael L. Bras 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,66(6):1667-1681

Landslides are a major geologic hazard with estimated tens of deaths and $1–2 billion in economic losses per year in the US alone. The island of Puerto Rico experiences one or two large events per year, often triggered in steeply sloped areas by prolonged and heavy rainfall. Identifying areas susceptible to landslides thus has great potential value for Puerto Rico and would allow better management of its territory. Landslide susceptibility zonation (LSZ) procedures identify areas prone to failure based on the characteristics of past events. LSZs are here developed based on two widely applied methodologies: bivariate frequency ratio (FR method) and logistic regression (LR method). With these methodologies, the correlations among eight possible landslide-inducing factors over the island have been investigated in detail. Both methodologies indicate aspect, slope, elevation, geological discontinuities, and geology as highly significant landslide-inducing factors, together with land-cover for the FR method and distance from road for the LR method. The LR method is grounded in rigorous statistical testing and model building but did not improve results over the simpler FR method. Accordingly, the FR method has been selected to generate a landslide susceptibility map for Puerto Rico. The landslide susceptibility predictions were tested against previous landslide analyses and other landslide inventories. This independent evaluation demonstrated that the two methods are consistent with landslide susceptibility zonation from those earlier studies and showed this analysis to have resulted in a robust and verifiable landslide susceptibility zonation map for the whole island of Puerto Rico.  相似文献   

Connectivity and single/dual domain transport models: tests on a point-bar/channel aquifer analogue     

Diana Dell’Arciprete  Chiara Vassena  Fulvia Baratelli  Mauro Giudici  Riccardo Bersezio  Fabrizio Felletti 《Hydrogeology Journal》2014,22(4):761-778

In porous aquifers, groundwater flow and solute transport strongly depend on the sedimentary facies distribution at fine scale, which determines the heterogeneity of the conductivity field; in particular, connected permeable sediments could form preferential flow paths. Therefore, properly defined statistics, e.g. total and intrinsic facies connectivity, should be correlated with transport features. In order to improve the assessment of the relevance of this relationship, some tests are conducted on two ensembles of equiprobable realizations, obtained with two different geostatistical simulation methods—sequential indicator simulation and multiple point simulation (MPS)—from the same dataset, which refers to an aquifer analogue of sediments deposited in a fluvial point-bar/channel association. The ensembles show different features; simulations with MPS are more structured and characterised by preferential flow paths. This is confirmed by the analysis of transport connectivities and by the interpretation of data from numerical experiments of conservative solute transport with single and dual domain models. The use of two ensembles permits (1) previous results obtained for single realizations to be consolidated on a more firm statistical basis and (2) the application of principal component analysis to assess which quantities are statistically the most relevant for the relationship between connectivity indicators and flow and transport properties.  相似文献   

CONSTAnT – A Conceptual Data Model for Semantic Trajectories of Moving Objects     

Vania Bogorny  Chiara Renso  Artur Ribeiro de Aquino  Fernando de Lucca Siqueira  Luis Otavio Alvares 《Transactions in GIS》2014,18(1):66-88

Several works have been proposed in the last few years for raw trajectory data analysis, and some attempts have been made to define trajectories from a more semantic point of view. Semantic trajectory data analysis has received significant attention recently, but the formal definition of semantic trajectory, the set of aspects that should be considered to semantically enrich trajectories and a conceptual data model integrating these aspects from a broad sense is still missing. This article presents a semantic trajectory conceptual data model named CONSTAnT, which defines the most important aspects of semantic trajectories. We believe that this model will be the foundation for the design of semantic trajectory databases, where several aspects that make a trajectory “semantic” are taken into account. The proposed model includes the concepts of semantic subtrajectory, semantic points, geographical places, events, goals, environment and behavior, to create a general concept of semantic trajectory. The proposed model is the result of several years of work by the authors in an effort to add more semantics to raw trajectory data for real applications. Two application examples and different queries show the flexibility of the model for different domains.  相似文献   

Relationship between monogenetic magmatism and stratovolcanoes in western Mexico: The role of low-pressure magmatic processes     

Chiara M. Petrone 《Lithos》2010,119(3-4):585-606

A large Quaternary monogenetic volcanic field is present in the western part of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. It is composed by mafic-intermediate scoria cones and silicic domes that are arranged in two NNW–SSE alignments. These mark the north and south borders (Northern Volcanic Chain and Southern Volcanic Chain, SVC) of the San Pedro–Ceboruco graben. The products of this monogenetic volcanic field span a large range of compositions (from basalt to rhyolite) and magma affinities (from sub-alkaline to Na-alkaline), defining different magmatic groups. Mafic and silicic monogenetic centres from the north alignment also coexist with two stratovolcanoes (Ceboruco and Tepetiltic) and sometimes punctuate their flanks.Whole-rock analyses indicate the existence of 4 different types of primitive magmas (Na-alkaline, High-Ti, Low-Ti/SVC and sub-alkaline) which have evolved independently by low-P magmatic processes. Despite the relatively small size and simplicity of the monogenetic magmatism, open-system processes have modified the geochemical and isotope composition of erupted products. The negative correlation between Sr isotope ratios and MgO contents observed for Southern Volcanic Chain and High-Ti groups points to crustal interaction via AFC processes, involving upper granitic crust and mafic lower crust respectively. In contrast, the large variability in Nd-isotopic ratios, combined with low and less variable ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, shown by the most mafic compositions of the High-Ti group is mostly due to mantle source heterogeneities. Low-Ti and Na-alkaline compositions are only slightly modified by crustal contamination processes and their whole-rock geochemistry reflects the complex nature of the western Mexico sub-arc mantle. It is therefore apparent that a combination of mantle source processes plus crustal assimilation has generated complex geochemical and isotopic characteristics in the western part of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic belt.Despite the presence of monogenetic cones on the flanks of stratovolcanoes, limited magma interaction between monogenetic and polygenetic magmatism has been recognised only at Ceboruco, possibly producing the chemical variability of post-caldera lavas. Indeed, mafic magma feeding High-Ti monogenetic systems might represent the possible mafic end-member which triggered the Ceboruco caldera-forming event. This may have important implications for other explosive systems in which monogenetic magmatism is associated with stratovolcanoes.A geographic/tectonic control is also suggested by the geochemical data. Na-alkaline compositions are only found in the northern part of the Northern Volcanic Chain. Parental magmas of both the High-Ti and Low-Ti monogenetic series, erupted between the Ceboruco and Tepetiltic stratovolcanoes, were modified by lower crust AFC processes possibly favoured by the stress regime. Indeed, the presence of a local left-hand step over along the northern main fault systems between the two stratovolcanoes might inhibit free uprising of monogenetic mafic magmas. The preferential alignment of stratovolcanoes and monogenetic volcanic vents parallel to the northern main fault systems and the possible mixing between High-Ti mafic monogenetic magmas and more evolved Ceboruco magmas suggests that, under the predominance of regional stress, the influence of central volcanic vents on monogenetic magmatism might be more complex than simple control of vent directions and might favours magma mixing processes.  相似文献   

Tectonics and quaternary evolution of the Northern Apennines watershed area (upper course of Arno and Tiber rivers,Italy)     

Marco Bonini  Chiara Tanini 《Geological Journal》2009,44(1):2-29

This work examines the connection between Quaternary tectonics and erosion/incision processes in the primary Tuscan‐Romagna watershed of the Northern Apennines, which essentially coincides with the topographic culmination of the Nero Unit structural ridge. Tectonic and geomorphic information were collected in the area where this ridge is crossed by the upper Tiber River course forming a deep gorge. Structural analysis and field mapping have revealed that the region experienced polyphase tectonics with superposed thrust folding events identifiable both at the map and mesoscopic scales. Hinterland‐SSW‐verging thrusts and thrust‐related folds deformed the whole thrust pile during the latest deformation phase. Backthrusts/backfolds controlled the development of intermountain basins nearby the main watershed during the Early Pleistocene and seemingly deformed, in the Tiber gorge, a low‐relief landscape developed in the Early Pleistocene (ca. 1.1 Ma). Successively, the upper Tiber River course area and Apennines axial zone underwent a generalized uplift, which is manifested by the deep incision of palaeo‐morphologies. This proposed sequence of events correlates well with the major geodynamic change of the Apennines revealed by an acceleration of uplift rates in the Middle–Late Pleistocene. This latter event may also correlate with increased rates of river incision recorded in Europe as a consequence of uplift and/or climate change. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献